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2014 Expectations for Middlebrooks
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Post by taftreign on Dec 5, 2013 13:31:13 GMT -5
I expect him to put up similar numbers to what he produced in the second half of this season and his rookie year.. for another team. I may be in the minority, but I think the Red Sox are going to re-sign Stephen Drew and move Bogaerts to third permanently. I know Cherington and co. have been saying they see Bogaerts as the future shortstop of this team, but I think -- for some reason -- they're going to move Middlebrooks, thus creating the need for Drew. But, this doesn't mean I want him gone. I've always loved Middlebrooks. This would negate the entire contemporary F.O. rationale for the Iglesias / Peavy trade, which was that Iglesias was superfluous because they were absolutely committed to X at SS, which allowed them to use Iglesias to buy pennant insurance in case there was a starting rotation injury in addition to Buchholz not coming back. They didn't trade for Peavy as a significant upgrade to what they had; they traded for him because the one way they could see missing the post-season was if they ended up "with Steven Wright in the rotation" (said Tom Tippett). If they really gave away Jose Iglesias to increase their post-season odds from, what, 98% to 100%, and then changed their mind about Bogaerts and signed Drew for big bucks instead of taking the draft pick for him, and in doing so blocked Cecchini from playing 3B for us -- well, that would be idiotic. Let's not forget as recently as a year ago the scouting projected the most likely scenario being Xander would move to 3b or even RF as he physically matured reducing his ability to field the Ss position. Bogaerts has since focused a great deal on improving his defense at short and appears as though he could hold it down at least for a few seasons but I bet within a few years his best position is at 3rd if not now. Signing Drew for 3 years of improved positional defense isn't a bad move and then handing the position off to Marrero who also likely offers better defense then Bogaerts. I do like WMB but he does offer a valuable piece in a trade that can fill a weakness elsewhere unless he transitions to another position. Then you have Cecchini. He is either Bogaerts insurance at 3b or a LF which is a position with very little long term resources. Ultimately the young players offer decent yet unproven options the next few seasons for the left side of the diamond and signing Drew doesn't ultimately hinder it but just makes someone expendable.
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Post by jrffam05 on Dec 5, 2013 13:47:47 GMT -5
A lot has changed in 1 year.
I don't think they consider moving Middlebrooks to 1B without a couple other funky events. Maybe if we resign Napoli he gets hurt, and we traded one of Nava/Carp. He just doesn't profile as a 1B. He is above average defensive 3B, and doesn't have the OBA to warrant 1B position. He gets traded before moved
In my eyes Middlebrooks is a very valuable piece, even with his .300 OBA projection. He has pop, he is cheap, young, and plays a decent 3B. He still could get better, and has shown promise throughout his career. There would be more than a couple teams who wouldn't mind having him on their 25 man. I don't think he will ever be an allstar 3B, but for me in 2014 I say pencil him in at 3rd and concentrate at other positions first.
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Post by jmei on Dec 5, 2013 14:15:21 GMT -5
above average defensive 3B That was his scouting report coming up, but from what I've seen of him in the majors, I think he's average at best. He's got a strong arm, but his instincts and range have disappointed me so far. I have strong memories of him diving haplessly for balls hit down the line and being statue-esque in his footwork. It's a tiny sample, but defensive stats don't love him either-- he's got a career -3.8 UZR/150, 0 TZ/yr, -9 DRS/yr. That said, he's clearly still good enough to stay at 3B, and his bat plays there much better than at 1B. I'd be surprised if he got more than emergency duty at 1B this year, even if the Red Sox don't add another right-handed 1B.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 5, 2013 14:27:07 GMT -5
I expect him to put up similar numbers to what he produced in the second half of this season and his rookie year.. for another team. I may be in the minority, but I think the Red Sox are going to re-sign Stephen Drew and move Bogaerts to third permanently. I know Cherington and co. have been saying they see Bogaerts as the future shortstop of this team, but I think -- for some reason -- they're going to move Middlebrooks, thus creating the need for Drew. But, this doesn't mean I want him gone. I've always loved Middlebrooks. This would negate the entire contemporary F.O. rationale for the Iglesias / Peavy trade, which was that Iglesias was superfluous because they were absolutely committed to X at SS, which allowed them to use Iglesias to buy pennant insurance in case there was a starting rotation injury in addition to Buchholz not coming back. They didn't trade for Peavy as a significant upgrade to what they had; they traded for him because the one way they could see missing the post-season was if they ended up "with Steven Wright in the rotation" (said Tom Tippett). If they really gave away Jose Iglesias to increase their post-season odds from, what, 98% to 100%, and then changed their mind about Bogaerts and signed Drew for big bucks instead of taking the draft pick for him, and in doing so blocked Cecchini from playing 3B for us -- well, that would be idiotic. I'm sorry, but the only idiotic thing they could do is make decisions for this year and the future based on the Iglesias trade. It has zero relevance anymore. It happened and it's done. BC shouldn't even be thinking of it when deciding what to do with Bogaerts and/or Drew. They dealt him to help win a WS and that's exactly what happened. They dealt from a position of strength because they had multiple options on the left side with Xander, Middlebrooks and the possibility of Drew coming back and using Bogaerts at 3b. You seem to be leaving out that Cecchini can change positions and 3b defensively is a big question mark for him right now, probably the biggest question in his game (a long with how much power will he develop) so he may have to move positions even if he's not "blocked". Options are good
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Post by brendan98 on Dec 5, 2013 14:42:07 GMT -5
So hard to predict a line for WMB, as he continues to try to adjust to how pitchers are attacking him, I think you he could end up with anything between .230/.290/.440 and .280/.330/.520, more than likely he will have his ups and downs, and the frequency and length of the downs will determine how many AB's he gets.
I would understand including WMB in a deal for a player that will help this team, and while I like Middlebrook's and think he will be a good and possibly great player down the line, I would be fine with the Sox trading him in the right deal. What I do not want to see is the Sox trading him to try to create room for Xander or Cecchini or Drew, etc.. WMB oozes right handed power, which is something that is becoming rarer and rarer in the post steroid era, if the Sox cannot get appropriate compensation for him, they should hang on to him and see if he can develop his approach enough to become a legit big league power hitting corner IF.
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Post by wildcardwillie on Dec 5, 2013 15:35:29 GMT -5
I don't want them to, but I could see them trading Middlebrooks, If they are thinking of moving Cecchini to lf they need to do it now. I honestly don't want Drew back. Why not move Middlebrooks to LF? Middlebrooks power potential is nice. Would love to see him stay and have a nice turnaround in early part of the year.
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Post by mattpicard on Dec 5, 2013 15:47:11 GMT -5
Why not move Middlebrooks to LF? I don't see how that'd do any good. You'd be moving him to a position that typically demands more offense than third base (the latter of which he's failed to provide good offense at), he doesn't profile to be particularly good out there and has zero prior outfield experience, and we already have two guys on the team signed at a low cost who provide plus production in left.
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Post by pedey on Dec 5, 2013 16:49:00 GMT -5
I'm not ready to give up on Brooks because I think he can be a good player. I hope the front office feels the same. He just went through a sophomore slump. If in his 3rd season he did what he did this year, then I would give up on him. He can still break out of it and improve - he is still only 25. I'd give him one more shot this year.
I know Bogaerts is definitely more talented than Brooks and he is the better prospect, but Bogy is still unproven at the MLB level. Everyone seems to trust him. I have no doubt that he will be an All-Star for years to come, but we can't trust Bogaerts too much more than trusting Brooks at this point. I'm probably wrong, but its just a thought. I have been a big fan of WMB since he was in the minors, and I hope the Sox hang on to him.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Dec 5, 2013 17:10:44 GMT -5
To be honest, WMB looks like Mark Reynolds 2.0 and has always looked that way. It's not common guys suddenly learn how to have good plate discipline in the majors and raise their OBP 20 points. I really don't like him for the makeup of this team and even said during his rookie year that they should have traded him while his value was high. I'd really like to see them get a prospect back for him.
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Post by mattpicard on Dec 5, 2013 17:31:20 GMT -5
I know Bogaerts is definitely more talented than Brooks and he is the better prospect, but Bogy is still unproven at the MLB level. Everyone seems to trust him. I have no doubt that he will be an All-Star for years to come, but we can't trust Bogaerts too much more than trusting Brooks at this point. I see where you're coming from, but I strongly disagree. While Bogey is in a somewhat similar situation as WMB was entering 2013 (looked good in limited time), the differences in their skill sets gives me a lot more trust in Bogaerts. He may face some struggles initially and need to make some minor adjustments, but we've already gotten a taste of how advanced his plate approach has become (and of course, we know how elite his bat has been outside of discipline considerations). WMB suddenly remedying an inability to get on base well is unlikely to happen, as others have mentioned. It's not the type of skill that suddenly pops up (or goes away). In the minors and during his first taste of MLB, he wasn't given the type of pitches that good pitchers can easily expose him with. Xander's shown plenty of evidence that, while he may struggle somewhat in 2014, he won't come anywhere close to WMB's 2013 failures (As an aside, people may argue WMB reinvented himself after returning from his AAA stint; I've advocated that it was somewhat fluke-ish, even though there were some marginal improvements - his "resurgence" at the end of August and in September was fueled by two ridiculous, but very brief, hot streaks). I don't think there's too much subjectivity. I think the difference in the two players skill sets fairly corresponds with the difference in peoples opinions of them.
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Post by Kevin Pereira on Dec 5, 2013 20:52:22 GMT -5
I expect him to put up similar numbers to what he produced in the second half of this season and his rookie year.. for another team. I may be in the minority, but I think the Red Sox are going to re-sign Stephen Drew and move Bogaerts to third permanently. I know Cherington and co. have been saying they see Bogaerts as the future shortstop of this team, but I think -- for some reason -- they're going to move Middlebrooks, thus creating the need for Drew. But, this doesn't mean I want him gone. I've always loved Middlebrooks. Could it be because they benched Middlebrooks in the middle of a World Series run, even with Drew mired in what seemed to be a 0-for-175 slump? They can say whatever they want about how much they believe in him, but actions speak louder than words. I think that's a good way to justify my feelings. I really can't pinpoint why I feel this way. I just believe the team values Drew more than Middlebrooks. I think Middlebrooks has gotten to that Josh Reddick point where the team starts to question if his approach is worth keeping or if it's best to survey its options, and -- as I said -- I think the best option is to sign Drew to a two or three year deal, move Bogaerts to third permanently, and ship Middlebrooks for some depth or package him for a first baseman or outfielder. In this scenario, I envision Cecchini moving to LF and Marrero taking the reigns at short at the end of Drew's contract. Admittedly, Marrero might be ready before three years, but you never know. If they do sign Drew, his contract will reflect how the club feels about its prospects at short.
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 5, 2013 21:11:09 GMT -5
Will, from my observations will not be a GG candidate at 3B in the near future. What we all hope is that his bat becomes more consistent, cutting down on Ks, and working the count better. As far as his defense, I don't see a lot of athleticism there. He dives for balls within his reach but misses them. He's got to become more selective in the box to make up for his defensive deficiencies to stick at that position..
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Post by jmei on Dec 10, 2013 15:25:13 GMT -5
Moved Drew discussion to its own thread!
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 10, 2013 15:38:07 GMT -5
IF........and that is a BIG IF he returns, I see Middlebrooks putting up numbers like this: Ave.: .259 OBP: .312 SLG: 460 HR: 25 X Base Hits Total: 55 RBI: 80 I personally would be fine with a package deal with the Dodgers for Matt Kemp with the Dodgers picking up $30 million. This would only happen, if they can persuade Drew to sign a 3 to 4 year deal to return. If they trade Middlebrooks, I'm hearing the trouble is getting Drew to take a 1-2 year deal, they don't want to give him a 3-4 year deal. I'm sure he'd sign a 4 year-40 million deal right now in two seconds. I have to say I don't want the Sox to trade Middlebrooks. Now if they do they better not sign Drew for more then 2 years. Not a fan, think Drew has more long term value in the form of a draft pick from another team. Also any trade better bring back some real value like getting Kemp. I'm sure his value is very high, a young power hitting 3b is rare in this league right now.
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Post by marrcus on Dec 10, 2013 15:48:11 GMT -5
"with Cecchini in LF. " --------------------- While I see this reference occasionally I've never heard a RS management person suggest it might happen?
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 10, 2013 16:04:24 GMT -5
"with Cecchini in LF. " --------------------- While I see this reference occasionally I've never heard a RS management person suggest it might happen? They never would until he starts taking reps out there. It's completely unnecessary to suggest it, given WMB's uncertainty and there's no reason for them to focus on Cecchini's possible defensive shortcomings at 3rd.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 10, 2013 16:32:32 GMT -5
You wouldn't have thought that Mike Trumbo's trade value was that high, either. Trumbo's OBP was 23 points higher than Middlebrooks' though. For the sake of comparison, Trumbo's OBP was 25 points below league average. So Middlebrooks was so bad last year that he was a full Mark Trumbo worse than Mark Trumbo.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 10, 2013 16:38:36 GMT -5
You wouldn't have thought that Mike Trumbo's trade value was that high, either. Trumbo's OBP was 23 points higher than Middlebrooks' though. For the sake of comparison, Trumbo's OBP was 25 points below league average. So Middlebrooks was so bad last year that he was a full Mark Trumbo worse than Mark Trumbo. Steamer and Oliver 2014 projections: Trumbo: 2.2 and 2.1 WAR WMB: 2.3 and 2.8 WAR
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 10, 2013 16:56:03 GMT -5
Trumbo's OBP was 23 points higher than Middlebrooks' though. For the sake of comparison, Trumbo's OBP was 25 points below league average. So Middlebrooks was so bad last year that he was a full Mark Trumbo worse than Mark Trumbo. Steamer and Oliver 2014 projections: Trumbo: 2.2 and 2.1 WAR WMB: 2.3 and 2.8 WAR I agree that Trumbo and Middlebrooks are probably of about equal value (and Middlebrooks probably has some upside, which is a point in his favor), but the Diamondbacks aren't trading for Trumbo based on his Oliver projections. Just because one team makes a mind-numblingly bad trade doesn't mean we can allow it to become the reasonable expectation. Also, if Middlebrooks had maintained even that modest .294 OBP that Trumbo did, he'd have likely have gotten the at-bats needed to post a shiny number of home runs and get himself overvalued. The fact that Middlebrooks is as good as (or better than) Trumbo isn't a point in favor of Middlebrooks' trade value, it's a point in an example of how bad of a trade this was for Arizona.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 10, 2013 17:01:33 GMT -5
Steamer and Oliver 2014 projections: Trumbo: 2.2 and 2.1 WAR WMB: 2.3 and 2.8 WAR I agree that Trumbo and Middlebrooks are probably of about equal value (and Middlebrooks probably has some upside, which is a point in his favor), but the Diamondbacks aren't trading for Trumbo based on his Oliver projections. Just because one team makes a mind-numblingly bad trade doesn't mean we can allow it to become the reasonable expectation. Also, if Middlebrooks had maintained even that modest .294 OBP that Trumbo did, he'd have likely have gotten the at-bats needed to post a shiny number of home runs and get himself overvalued. The fact that Middlebrooks is as good as (or better than) Trumbo isn't a point in favor of Middlebrooks' trade value, it's a point in an example of how bad of a trade this was for Arizona. I agree. And we also can't rely on any advanced stats when it comes to any trades involving guys like that. People who look at these stats would avoid both of them.
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Post by jdb on Dec 11, 2013 19:14:27 GMT -5
So with all signs pointing to Drew coming back where does this leave WMBs? Can he reestablish trade value backing up 3B or would he even see the Fort come Feb?
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 11, 2013 19:19:13 GMT -5
So with all signs pointing to Drew coming back where does this leave WMBs? Can he reestablish trade value backing up 3B or would he even see the Fort come Feb? There are almost no signs pointing to Drew coming back. Boras saying he might and some guy who has a feeling aren't signs.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 11, 2013 19:25:40 GMT -5
You wouldn't have thought that Mike Trumbo's trade value was that high, either. Trumbo's OBP was 23 points higher than Middlebrooks' though. For the sake of comparison, Trumbo's OBP was 25 points below league average. So Middlebrooks was so bad last year that he was a full Mark Trumbo worse than Mark Trumbo. Aha! .... A new 'Mendoza line'!
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Post by mainesox on Dec 11, 2013 19:37:02 GMT -5
So with all signs pointing to Drew coming back where does this leave WMBs? Can he reestablish trade value backing up 3B or would he even see the Fort come Feb? There are almost no signs pointing to Drew coming back. Boras saying he might and some guy who has a feeling aren't signs. Well, other than all the reports, and quotes from the FO and Farrell explicitly saying that they want him back.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 11, 2013 19:37:52 GMT -5
There are almost no signs pointing to Drew coming back. Boras saying he might and some guy who has a feeling aren't signs. Well, other than all the reports, and quotes from the FO and Farrell explicitly saying that they want him back. Which they say about every free agent like Salty and Ellsbury.
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