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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 18, 2014 18:26:17 GMT -5
The Speier article on WEEI cited Swihart's line against LH versus RH L .367/.419/.519 R .279/.352/.404 Does anyone have a guess as to whether this is true L/R split? or is this more a matter of batting R against LH pitching versus L against RH pitching? What?
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Post by jmei on Jan 18, 2014 18:36:19 GMT -5
The Speier article on WEEI cited Swihart's line against LH versus RH L .367/.419/.519 R .279/.352/.404 Does anyone have a guess as to whether this is true L/R split? or is this more a matter of batting R against LH pitching versus L against RH pitching? Looks like mostly BABIP variance. In 2012, Swihart hit .271/.309/.412 versus righties (.325 BABIP) and .232/.301/.341 versus lefties (.258 BABIP)-- kind of the exact opposite of his 2013. Last year, his IsoD was higher versus righties (.073 vs. .052) and his IsoP was higher versus lefties (.152 vs. lefties, .125 versus righties), but the big difference is in BABIP (.420 versus lefties, .335 versus righties).
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 19, 2014 1:25:56 GMT -5
The Speier article on WEEI cited Swihart's line against LH versus RH L .367/.419/.519 R .279/.352/.404 Does anyone have a guess as to whether this is true L/R split? or is this more a matter of batting R against LH pitching versus L against RH pitching? Looks like mostly BABIP variance. In 2012, Swihart hit .271/.309/.412 versus righties (.325 BABIP) and .232/.301/.341 versus lefties (.258 BABIP)-- kind of the exact opposite of his 2013. Last year, his IsoD was higher versus righties (.073 vs. .052) and his IsoP was higher versus lefties (.152 vs. lefties, .125 versus righties), but the big difference is in BABIP (.420 versus lefties, .335 versus righties). I'm not sure if you assumed what jchang meant to ask was not what jchang asked or if you assumed what jchang asked was what he meant to ask but what jchang asked was answered as well as what jchang meant to ask if that's what he meant to ask. Either way, interesting data and well done. I am of course pretty sure that the Lavarnwaybinkyguy would have come to the exact same analysis reading only the scouting reports.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 19, 2014 1:50:26 GMT -5
Regarding the video and statements in the video and keeping in mind that I wasn't a then American League Brewers fan (caveats), BJ Surhoff was similar to that in a lot of respects when he first came up (as a catcher not a third baseman). He was fast and athletic. He was incredibly difficult to bunt on. He had a pretty decent arm but his stolen base mechanics weren't very good. He also tended not to put his body in front of in the dirt pitches.
I really only followed him because him and Teddy Higuera were rookies on one of my "rotisserie" teams. (Had the original book).
ADD: I also recall that when receiving the ball, his butt wasn't low to the ground like Irod, he'd squat to send the sign then raise his butt, more like bent over than squatting. He was also thinner than I think Swihart will be.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 19, 2014 2:18:53 GMT -5
The Speier article on WEEI cited Swihart's line against LH versus RH L .367/.419/.519 R .279/.352/.404 Does anyone have a guess as to whether this is true L/R split? or is this more a matter of batting R against LH pitching versus L against RH pitching? I'm guessing you're asking: 'can he not hit RH pitching? Or is this a matter of him not being able to hit lefthanded. I have no freakin clue - but it's a good point to watch going forward.
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Post by jchang on Jan 19, 2014 9:25:05 GMT -5
My question was to what degree does Swihart hit LH pitchers better than RH, versus bats R better than L (He bats R against LH pitchers, and L against RH pitchers). jmei had a good answer that this might be BABIP variance, as Swihart only had 85 PA against lefties versus 336 against RH pitching, and that in 2012 Swihart had a poor split against lefties. Swihart's .279/.352/.404 line against RH pitchers (batting L) is a perfectly respectable above average, it is his 2013 .367/.419/.519 line against lefties that is exceptional, which jmei points out: it might be BABIP variance.
Earlier in this thread, someone suggested Vazquez may not be able to sustain his high BB rate at the MLB level if his bat is not dangerous. I am trying to thing of players that had high walk rate in the minors. Nava maintained his high walk rate into the majors. Shaw saw a big drop in BA in AA, but maintained a high BB rate.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 19, 2014 10:48:21 GMT -5
How is Vasquez at handling the bat? Some guys are good at fouling off good pitches that they can't handle well, others are not. If a weaker hitter can't foul off tough pitches then it's harder to have a good walk rate. Not impossible though. Salty walked quite a bit, and I wouldn't say he handled the bat well in that regard.
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Post by Matt Huegel on Jan 19, 2014 10:54:35 GMT -5
Earlier in this thread, someone suggested Vazquez may not be able to sustain his high BB rate at the MLB level if his bat is not dangerous. I am trying to thing of players that had high walk rate in the minors. Nava maintained his high walk rate into the majors. Shaw saw a big drop in BA in AA, but maintained a high BB rate. Che-Hsuan Lin is the best recent example of this. Could take balls with the best of them, but just couldn't make hard enough contact to make any major leaguer fear throwing him strikes.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 19, 2014 11:39:47 GMT -5
Also, just about every position player the A's drafted in the early 2000's not named Nick Swisher: Mark Teahen: 11.3 BB% in the minors, 8.2% in the majors, .409 SLG Bobby Crosby: 10.2% minors, 8.5% majors, .372 SLG - though with an obvious asterisk due to his injuries Travis Buck: 10.2% minors, 8.6% majors, .399 SLG Cliff Pennington: 13.2 minors, 8.2% majors, .350 SLG Danny Putnam: 10.9 % minors, only got 31 MLB plate appearances with one extra base hit. Landon Powell: 13.9% minors, 9.9% majors, .328 SLG
With that said, as has been noted a few times, the bar for catchers is lower. Even if Vazquez's defense is merely "good" (as opposed to outstanding), if can hit even as well as Cliff Pennington he's a major leaguer, and if he can hit like Mark Teahen he's a first division starter.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 19, 2014 11:57:59 GMT -5
Earlier in this thread, someone suggested Vazquez may not be able to sustain his high BB rate at the MLB level if his bat is not dangerous. I am trying to thing of players that had high walk rate in the minors. Nava maintained his high walk rate into the majors. Shaw saw a big drop in BA in AA, but maintained a high BB rate. Che-Hsuan Lin is the best recent example of this. Could take balls with the best of them, but just couldn't make hard enough contact to make any major leaguer fear throwing him strikes. The thing about Lin is that he has actually maintained his BB% and slightly improve his K% as he's moved up so I'm not sure it is a matter of better quality pitchers not throwing him strikes. He had two noticeable drops in his performance: First, when he moved up to AA his ISO fell off from .100 in A+ to around .068 in AA. He has stayed at that level in AAA. The other drop came when he went from AA to AAA. After this jump his BABIP dropped 32 points from where it was at previous levels. I think the general narrative is still true - Lin was exposed by better quality pitchers. I just think it had more to do with his inability to square up higher quality pitches than him no longer being able to draw walks or pitchers only throwing him strikes. Comparing this to Vazquez, he also maintained his walk rates and improved his strikeout rates (by a lot) moving up the ladder. He also saw a similar drop in ISO going from A+ to AA (.034). The big difference of course is that while both players have similar walks and strikeout rates, Vazquez's AA ISO is about where Lin's A+ ISO was, so he may be able to withstand that drop whereas Lin couldn't. I'll be looking for Vazquez to continue to be able to square the ball up in AAA and maintain an AVG in the .260-.275 range. If he falls 30ish points there like Lin did then I would be very concerned about his ability to handle major league pitching.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 5, 2014 22:01:38 GMT -5
Any news on Vazquez' non-throwing development defensively? I read less than a year ago that he was still quite raw in many other aspects of his defensive game but no note of this during spring training. Has he gotten that much better all-around?
Seems to me that short of 40-man/financial implications, Vazquez may have jumped to 3rd on the depth chart for 2014.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 5, 2014 22:19:16 GMT -5
Any news on Vazquez' non-throwing development defensively? I read less than a year ago that he was still quite raw in many other aspects of his defensive game but no note of this during spring training. Has he gotten that much better all-around? Seems to me that short of 40-man/financial implications, Vazquez may have jumped to 3rd on the depth chart for 2014. I think "quite raw" is a little strong. There were questions about passed balls, whether he wasn't cheating by loading up early, leaving himself out of position. But overall he has a very strong defensive reputation. He's been mentioned prominently in the BP series on tools in the minor leagues as one of the contenders, both for his arm strength and his defensive work.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 5, 2014 23:10:53 GMT -5
I'm not sure he's number 3 in April, but I'm guessing he is by mid season. Kids legit.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 6, 2014 6:52:50 GMT -5
At this point in time, 3rd on the depth chart is almost certainly Butler, although they need to figure out what exactly Lavarnway is eventually as well.
Could change by midseason though.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 6, 2014 7:03:15 GMT -5
At this point in time, 3rd on the depth chart is almost certainly Butler, although they need to figure out what exactly Lavarnway is eventually as well. Could change by midseason though. My view as well. Vazquez has no AAA experience. I have seen a couple of tweets to the effect that scouts think Butler could be a major league backup catcher right now.
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Post by elguapo on Mar 6, 2014 9:30:58 GMT -5
Earlier in this thread, someone suggested Vazquez may not be able to sustain his high BB rate at the MLB level if his bat is not dangerous. I am trying to thing of players that had high walk rate in the minors. Nava maintained his high walk rate into the majors. Shaw saw a big drop in BA in AA, but maintained a high BB rate. Che-Hsuan Lin is the best recent example of this. Again, Che-Hsuan Lin's walk rate has been steady all the way up the ladder, his best walk rate was last year at AAA, and he has not really played in the majors, so he's a terrible example of this phenomenon actually happening. He's an example of a player people think would have a low walk rate in the majors. add - I see Chavopepe chimed in earlier.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 6, 2014 9:50:45 GMT -5
At this point in time, 3rd on the depth chart is almost certainly Butler, although they need to figure out what exactly Lavarnway is eventually as well. Could change by midseason though. Lavarnway is probably 5th on the depth chart for 1B and C. I'd guess they're hoping he shows enough in ST so they can trade him.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 10, 2014 21:27:59 GMT -5
What happened to the position by position SP report on our catching that was released yesterday ? It was very well done but now I can't find it.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 10, 2014 21:49:45 GMT -5
Che-Hsuan Lin is the best recent example of this. Again, Che-Hsuan Lin's walk rate has been steady all the way up the ladder, his best walk rate was last year at AAA, and he has not really played in the majors, so he's a terrible example of this phenomenon actually happening. He's an example of a player people think would have a low walk rate in the majors. add - I see Chavopepe chimed in earlier. Lin is just weird. He had more walks than strikeouts in his most recent AAA season. He also hit .234/.356/.309, which is basically what he's hit in his last 1200+ AAA PAs. So I don't know that he'd have a terrible walk rate in the majors, but I'm pretty sure he'd be a terrible hitter in the majors regardless. Man does not live by walk rate alone.
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Post by Jim Crowell on May 15, 2014 8:54:51 GMT -5
After 6 full weeks of games, Swihart has the superior offensive numbers.
Swihart: 117 PA, .301/.325/.487 14/4 K/BB 3HR, 3SB, .323 BABIP Vazquez: 116 PA, .279/.339/.365 20/10 K/BB 0HR, 0SB, .341 BABIP
I have seen both players a handful of times now and to me Swihart is easily the better prospect. Last night on a ground out, I clocked Swihart at 4.22 running to first, and this was when he was batting right-handed. This kid can FLY for a catcher. Also Swihart has plus bat speed while Vazquez’s is only average at best. Batting right-handed, Swihart is able to produce better loft and backspin than when he is batting left-handed. He gets a little pull-happy from the left side, causing him to roll over some balls on the outer half of the plate.
Some people are scared by Swihart’s lack of walks but I don’t see that as an issue. He is not like Pierzynski swinging at anything in the ballpark. He lays off pitches that are out of the zone, but he can be more selective on pitches in the zone. Last night he was in a 3-1 count and the pitcher threw him a good fastball on the outside corner and he ended up grounding out. The pitch was a strike, but it was not a pitch he could do much with.
He needs all of this season and next to refine his skills, but Swihart is the catcher of the future. I think he is the 2nd best prospect in the system behind Betts.
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Post by jdb on May 15, 2014 9:19:27 GMT -5
I'm not to worried about his BB% either since it was 9.7% last season. I think he's a top 50 prospect but I do think Vazquez can be a quality starter. I'm not so sure if he isn't up during the second half.
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Post by jmei on May 15, 2014 9:20:35 GMT -5
I'll be honest, I'm still a little worried about whether Swihart's size might make it difficult for him to be a full-time catcher for the long haul. One of the reasons he's so fast on the basepaths is that he's still a pretty skinny dude. He certainly doesn't have that thick core/legs that you see out of most catchers. He did catch 100+ games last year and seems to have made it through with no problem, but he's definitely the skinniest catcher I can remember ever seeing in pro ball, and catching season after season of 120+ games takes its toll.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 15, 2014 9:26:18 GMT -5
Some people are scared by Swihart’s lack of walks but I don’t see that as an issue. He is not like Pierzynski swinging at anything in the ballpark. He lays off pitches that are out of the zone, but he can be more selective on pitches in the zone. Last night he was in a 3-1 count and the pitcher threw him a good fastball on the outside corner and he ended up grounding out. The pitch was a strike, but it was not a pitch he could do much with. He needs all of this season and next to refine his skills, but Swihart is the catcher of the future. I think he is the 2nd best prospect in the system behind Betts. I expect the K/BB numbers to improve. He's not walking right now but he's never been that type of hitter in the past nor does he scout as that type of hitter. The bad K/BB right now is probably just him adjusting to AA ball, not unlike what we saw with Xander in his first exposure to the level. Catcher prospects make me nervous in general, but I'm inclined to agree with you about Swihart's prospect status.
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Post by brianthetaoist on May 15, 2014 9:43:34 GMT -5
I agree on Swihart ... a 22 year-old with an .812 OPS in AA deserves some notice, but a 22 year-old *catcher* with an .812 OPS in AA deserves more than that, even though it's early. Especially since by all accounts he's developing into a very strong defensive catcher (maybe even plus?).
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Post by iakovos11 on May 15, 2014 10:33:50 GMT -5
I'll be honest, I'm still a little worried about whether Swihart's size might make it difficult for him to be a full-time catcher for the long haul. One of the reasons he's so fast on the basepaths is that he's still a pretty skinny dude. He certainly doesn't have that thick core/legs that you see out of most catchers. He did catch 100+ games last year and seems to have made it through with no problem, but he's definitely the skinniest catcher I can remember ever seeing in pro ball, and catching season after season of 120+ games takes its toll. I agree this bares watching. And maybe a good reason to keep CVaz. I could Swihart catching 100 games or so with CVaz the rest, while Swihart DH's (Ortiz likely gone) or perhaps get some time at another position. Not sure how good the bat will be and whether it will play up as well at DH or 1B or OF, but that might be an option to give him some days off behind the plate and have an elite defensive catcher take over on those days.
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