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Potential Free Agent Starter for Next Year?
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 19, 2012 12:31:32 GMT -5
In response to dmaineah:
I'd give Morales a shot at the #5 spot over Pimentel or Britton or Stewart.
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Post by jdb on Sept 19, 2012 12:41:22 GMT -5
Im up in the air on Greinke. I dont want to get tied down with an aging SP making 20 million per but a 5 year deal takes him to 33 which isnt too bad. I do have concerns about him in a big market. Regardless I dont think he is an option and think its LAA or Atlanta for him.
I think Lester can regain his form and Buch has pitched like a #2 recently. I think we should roll with what we have and see how Doubront, Rubby, Webster and Barnes do next year. One thing I envy about the Rays (beside all their costumes on road trips) is their young rotation. A lot of power arms in their mid 20's who dont miss starts. I think getting a manager and pitching coach who can help our staff grow would be more beneficial than Greinkie.
Like others have said I think we have alot more holes in the field than on the staff.
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Post by patrmac04 on Sept 19, 2012 12:57:17 GMT -5
The Rotation next year is going to be; 1)Buchholz 2)Lester 3)Lackey 4)Doubront The 5th Starting Pitcher will come from; Stewart, Pimentel, Britton Or someone added to the 40 Man Roster like; Wright, Webster, De La Rosa I would also expect the Sox to sign a few reclamation projects to a minor league deal to compete during spring training like they did with Cook, Germano & Ohlendorf this past year. No way will they trade Doubront a 24 year old Left Handed Starting Pitcher under their control. If you want a losing team, then sure go with that rotation. I think we proved this year and the past three years that we need more starting pitching than just sitting on our hands with that man. I would like to show teams that Lackey is healthy and trade him in spring training or off season if possible. If the Red Sox allow for Lackey to make a start this year, then we are assured that he will be traded in the off season. That being said, I will make out my rotation with him in there since he is still with the team. If we do trade him, I would like A. Sanchez in his place as he would be an upgrade IMO and he is much younger. Here is my proposed rotation and depth behind it. 1. Greinke 2. Clay 3. Lester 4. Lackey 5. Doubront 6. Morales (his shoulder has me worried even though they are down playing it in the media) Depth: Chris Hernandez, Webster, De La Rosa, Stewart Pimentel still has a ways to go as well as Britton and I see them as bullpen guys in the long run
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Post by dmaineah on Sept 19, 2012 12:59:48 GMT -5
In response to dmaineah: I'd give Morales a shot at the #5 spot over Pimentel or Britton or Stewart. I prefer to keep him in the pen and use him as a spot starter like he did this year but I could see the Sox stretching him out during spring training and giving him the opportunity to compete next year. I guess my bigger point is that I don't expect the Sox to go out and sign an "Ace" like a Greinke or a "middle of the rotation innings eater" like the names listed. I expect that the Sox will keep the 4 Starting Pitchers that they have, and I listed, and will find the #5 Starting Pitcher from the players they already have in the system or as I said from a reclamation project in spring training. I actually don't mind our 4 SP and believe we need to find production for our every day line up specifically 1B, & LF. I think we're good at catcher with Salty/Lavarnway, I'm OK with another year of Aviles at SS & Sweeney or Kalish in RF. I'd like to see them sign Ross to be the RH platoon in RF & we're all set at 3B with Middlebrooks & Ellsbury in CF.
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Post by patrmac04 on Sept 19, 2012 13:00:32 GMT -5
I'd love to have Greinke on the Red Sox, and his anxiety disorder really isn't a concern in my opinion, but I think he'll get more money/years than the Red Sox should give any pitcher over the age of, say, 25. Also, I don't know that I would really call Greinke inconsistent. His ERA has fluctuated quite a bit, but he's basically been between 3.00 and 3.50 FIP since converting back to a starter full time in '08 (he had a crazy low FIP in '09, so his one "inconsistent" year was especially good, not especially bad). He hasn't really been any more inconsistent than Sabathia (for example) over that period. You have my proxy on this man... said it better than my overly wordy post did.
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Post by patrmac04 on Sept 19, 2012 13:16:43 GMT -5
In response to dmaineah: I'd give Morales a shot at the #5 spot over Pimentel or Britton or Stewart. I prefer to keep him in the pen and use him as a spot starter like he did this year but I could see the Sox stretching him out during spring training and giving him the opportunity to compete next year. I guess my bigger point is that I don't expect the Sox to go out and sign an "Ace" like a Greinke or a "middle of the rotation innings eater" like the names listed. I expect that the Sox will keep the 4 Starting Pitchers that they have, and I listed, and will find the #5 Starting Pitcher from the players they already have in the system or as I said from a reclamation project in spring training. I actually don't mind our 4 SP and believe we need to find production for our every day line up specifically 1B, & LF. I think we're good at catcher with Salty/Lavarnway, I'm OK with another year of Aviles at SS & Sweeney or Kalish in RF. I'd like to see them sign Ross to be the RH platoon in RF & we're all set at 3B with Middlebrooks & Ellsbury in CF. The problem with your logic is that you are planning to keep 4 pitchers without quality depth. We saw how a reclamation project worked out with Aaron Cook, Erik Bedard, Boof Bonser, Brad Penny, John Smoltz, Paul Byrd, Wade Miller and company. Sure they can give you innings, but they aren't quality innings usually. They are there in case you have epic injury problems and need to really dig deep or just need a single spot start. They should not be relied upon for a 5th starter. If the Sox not only go out to get Greinke, but also pick up the likes of A. Sanchez... it makes the top of the rotation stronger as well as improves the entire depth of the team. There are very few times where a team can go through a whole season without injuries to your top five starters. More often than not, you have to plan a season around not having at least one starter or more the entire season. This season we were without Dice K and Lackey all year. For all intensive purposes we didn't have Clay for the first two months of the year as his corpse was pitching before he turned it around. Lester has had an off year and so did Beckett. Felix was our best pitcher for the first half of the year, but he is falling apart in the second half. What I am getting at is that we use what we have as depth, not as our go to pitchers right out of the gate. It really won't be until 2014 where we will start to have our young arms be ready for the show.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 19, 2012 13:30:37 GMT -5
I believe Larry Luchinio mentioned that we didn't quite have the depth to overcome all of the injuries and bad years, and that is one thing they need to do is to correct that.
I'm fine with Buch, Lester, and Doubront heading into next year. I wouldn't be shocked if Lackey was serviceable next season. I just feel we need another established arm, and they do not have to be an ace. I have no problem signing Grienke....its the length of the contract that would worry me.
Think 2014! We have quite a bit of young talent ready to compete then and I do not want us to have a bunch of contracts stalling their opportunity. I'm hoping we can sign one of those seven starters to a one or two year contract. Grienke will be signing a 4 to 6 year contract with someone and I hope we have nothing to do with it. As for Hamilton, I'd sign him up today for 3 years at $25 million per if he would take it, but I'm not in favor of going more than 3 years for him (and probably any one else). Long term contracts sort of us got us into a mess and a bind. Especially for 2013, lets be smart and sign position players and starters to less years. Now if we have to pay a little more per year, I'm OK with that strategy.
Don't get me wrong, I absolutely love Josh Hamilton's talent. I guess I could see offering him 3 plus an option. This is going to be a fun off-season!!!
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Post by patrmac04 on Sept 19, 2012 16:02:04 GMT -5
I don't recall that Larry interview where he acknowledged the deficiency in starting depth, but then again this is the least I have paid attention to the Red Sox in years.
So I have a question in regards to Greinke. Since he was traded mid season and the Angels are not able to get a pick for him under the new CBA... does that mean that we could sign him and not give up a draft pick? To me that is worth a lot of money in itself if true.
So I do think that this team has enough arms coming through the system to be good in 2014, I am taking Henry at his word in saying that he plans to win the division next year.
The last time the team tanked in any way close to this was 2006 when we had a rash of injuries and didn't make the playoffs. That 'bad' season had us finish third and we still won 86 games.
The next year we won the world series in 2007 of course. That was the year they went nuts and signed Dice K in the crazy bidding process for 103.1 million total. Now if the Sox were willing to take a chance on Dice K for that much money, then why wouldn't they want to take the chance on Greinke who is a far better talent and a pitcher who has proven he can pitch in the majors at a high level?
Don't get me wrong... I would love to have Hamilton's bat in the lineup. I miss Manny/Ortiz back to back as any other Sox fan... but this team needs top of the rotation help.
The Yankees traded for Pineda as a quality young stud arm to be the future ace. He was injured all season... but I am trying to think of any other pitchers that are like him who we could trade for. Gio Gonzalez was gold for the Nats. The Yanks also have Banuelos coming back from injury next season as well... so they have a couple of young studs to anchor the rotation. This is why I think we could pry away Kuroda since Hank says that the Yanks need to get under the luxury tax by 2014.
So basically if we can't get Greinke and the Dodgers give him 150 million over six years or something to that level... then I would like plan B to be to pick up Kuroda on a one year deal with an option. I would also like to pick up Anibal Sanchez on top of that to shore up the rotation.
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Post by remember04 on Sept 19, 2012 16:26:03 GMT -5
Unless the trade itself triggers some clause I'm unaware of the Angels get a pick for Greinke as long as they offer him a qualifying offer of more than something like 13 mil and he turns it down.
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Post by patrmac04 on Sept 19, 2012 16:37:18 GMT -5
Unless the trade itself triggers some clause I'm unaware of the Angels get a pick for Greinke as long as they offer him a qualifying offer of more than something like 13 mil and he turns it down. with the new collective bargaining agreement, teams no longer receive a compensation pick for players that leave if traded for during the year... so that is where my question came from that if we sign Greinke if we are free of giving up a prospect to anyone
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 19, 2012 18:02:12 GMT -5
. As for Hamilton, I'd sign him up today for 3 years at $25 million per if he would take it, but I'm not in favor of going more than 3 years for him (and probably any one else). Long term contracts sort of us got us into a mess and a bind. Especially for 2013, lets be smart and sign position players and starters to less years. Now if we have to pay a little more per year, I'm OK with that strategy. Don't get me wrong, I absolutely love Josh Hamilton's talent. I guess I could see offering him 3 plus an option. This is going to be a fun off-season!!! I'd sign Hamilton if his contract can be voided. If he gets suspended for failing a drug test. You need very good players to win. We don't have any. Maybe Pedroia, but he isn't going to last with that body. Papi is about done. Not sure what we have in WMB. I don't see much premier talent becoming available this off-season or next for that matter. I'm assuming the MFY's keep Cano. And, I don't consider Ellsbury a premier player.
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 19, 2012 20:05:03 GMT -5
. As for Hamilton, I'd sign him up today for 3 years at $25 million per if he would take it, but I'm not in favor of going more than 3 years for him (and probably any one else). Long term contracts sort of us got us into a mess and a bind. Especially for 2013, lets be smart and sign position players and starters to less years. Now if we have to pay a little more per year, I'm OK with that strategy. Don't get me wrong, I absolutely love Josh Hamilton's talent. I guess I could see offering him 3 plus an option. This is going to be a fun off-season!!! I'd sign Hamilton if his contract can be voided. If he gets suspended for failing a drug test. You need very good players to win. We don't have any. Maybe Pedroia, but he isn't going to last with that body. Papi is about done. Not sure what we have in WMB. I don't see much premier talent becoming available this off-season or next for that matter. I'm assuming the MFY's keep Cano. And, I don't consider Ellsbury a premier player. Looks like we're cooked for next year!
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 19, 2012 20:56:58 GMT -5
I'd sign Hamilton if his contract can be voided. If he gets suspended for failing a drug test. You need very good players to win. We don't have any. Maybe Pedroia, but he isn't going to last with that body. Papi is about done. Not sure what we have in WMB. I don't see much premier talent becoming available this off-season or next for that matter. I'm assuming the MFY's keep Cano. And, I don't consider Ellsbury a premier player. Looks like we're cooked for next year! Sibby I have said several times (and been pilloried for it) that I think we have to take a step or two back to allow us to leap forward. We all want the Sox to win it all every year. But, there are not a lot of free agents of great value available. Our main prospects are at least a year or so away. We have a management team that has semi-miraculously been able to divest itself of burdensome long term contracts while acquiring prospects. Sox management professes to be re-committed to development from within and spending much more judiciously. To me that means that we will not sign long-term high-priced free-agent contracts at this time....Realistically a couple of those acquisitions will not effect the cure IMO. Our problems are deeper. Management does not want to squander its new-found financial muscle. It also means that we will re-commit to finding value that other teams overlook (think Papi) and devote more resources to assessing value in the draft and internationally. This process will take time and patience. We all want instant gratification...but I think that not being frenetic and with a re-directed focus, it will pay off better for us longer term. I am excited by our bottoming, if you will, because it will be the force to propel dynamic change that will get us back on top.
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 19, 2012 21:06:16 GMT -5
Soxer. My remarks were a parody on blosserbelly's dire predictions of doom and gloom for the future.
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 19, 2012 21:08:34 GMT -5
Soxer. My remarks were a parody on blosserbelly's dire predictions of doom and gloom for the future. ...and I knew that Sibby but it gave me a platform
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 20, 2012 10:43:00 GMT -5
Soxer. My remarks were a parody on blosserbelly's dire predictions of doom and gloom for the future. ...and I knew that Sibby but it gave me a platform What premier talent do you see on this team? Please don't mention any prospects because they are 2-3 years minimum from becoming premier players. What premier talent is available? I see a lot of mediocre pitchers and not much better in the way of bats. Baltimore is significantly better than us at the following positions; C, SS, CF, RF and has a better prospect at 3b. Pretty damn important positions. Just as good in LF and 1B. Reynolds and Chris Davis. We have em at 2b. Whooptee damn doo!! Oh, we've got em at that ultra important DH position too. If Papi is healthy?
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 20, 2012 10:53:29 GMT -5
There's always a posibility that, with their new-found cap space, Cherington & Co. can make some moves in the free agent market, though I'd steer clear of Hamilton unless there are out clauses.
Trades are always possible. With rumors of Davis, J. Upton, Andrus being available, some of those prospects might be moved along with an Ellsbury, Iglesias, Kalish.
Guess I take a more optimistic point of view.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 20, 2012 12:08:05 GMT -5
Why does the team need top-notch, ace-level, A #1 talent? Does Oakland have that? Quick, name all their starting pitchers.
The premise is badly flawed. What you need are a decent supply of good, healthy pitchers with repeatable mechanics and a plan for how to integrate them with your bullpen. It doesn't matter whether their reasonably priced free-agent acquisitions or the product of your own farm system. What matters is that they're ready to give you some solid innings, that your offense can back them up, and that your late-inning relievers will hold on to leads. You need a team, and while it's nice to have a "star" - whatever that is - overpaying for talent is what got the team in a hole. Why should they climb back down into that hole?
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 20, 2012 14:14:19 GMT -5
Why does the team need top-notch, ace-level, A #1 talent? Does Oakland have that? Quick, name all their starting pitchers. The premise is badly flawed. What you need are a decent supply of good, healthy pitchers with repeatable mechanics and a plan for how to integrate them with your bullpen. It doesn't matter whether their reasonably priced free-agent acquisitions or the product of your own farm system. What matters is that they're ready to give you some solid innings, that your offense can back them up, and that your late-inning relievers will hold on to leads. You need a team, and while it's nice to have a "star" - whatever that is - overpaying for talent is what got the team in a hole. Why should they climb back down into that hole? You are right Norm. I'd be happy with 4 or 5 guys who go out every 5 days and give us a chance. 4 or 5 starters who have an ERA of 4.50 (or less) and a bullpen that is solid would have the potential to get us the promise land. A 4.50 ERA is 6 innings of 3 earned runs. That is considered a decent outing now-a-days. I think most of us would like our chances with an outing like that every night. I'd love an ace. I'd love for us to have someone every 5 days we sort of figure....that's a win, but they are very hard to find. I bet both Lester and Buchholtz give us a below 4.5 next year. Lackey should be able to do a 4.5 with finally becoming healthy. Doubront could get there if he gets more stamina and consistency. Lets add one more starter who can go out every 5 days and give us a chance. Now of course for this to get us to the playoffs we will have to develop a more consistent offense also.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 20, 2012 14:36:15 GMT -5
Maybe this guy is more to your liking?
White Sox Expected To Decline Peavy’s Option By Ben Nicholson-Smith [September 20, 2012 at 1:08pm CST] The White Sox have signaled to Jake Peavy that they’re unlikely to exercise their $22MM club option for 2013, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. Instead, the team is expected to pay a $4MM buyout in a move that would make Peavy a free agent.
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Post by curll on Sept 20, 2012 14:39:17 GMT -5
Jake Peavy seems to make a lot of sense. Having a great year in 2012, and had good periphs in 2010 and 2011, despite missing time.
I'm not sure what his agent is thinking, but an incentive laden 1 year deal may work, or a lower AAV three year deal with a few options might tempt them.
He's 31, so it is a tricky age to hand out a contract to an oft-injured pitcher.
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Post by elguapo on Sept 20, 2012 14:49:05 GMT -5
Why does the team need top-notch, ace-level, A #1 talent? Does Oakland have that? Quick, name all their starting pitchers. If we were to follow the Oakland model, we would surely have Doubront & De La Rosa in next year's rotation. Lester / Buchholz / Lackey / Doubront / De La Rosa - yup, that's five! If we were REALLY going to follow the Oakland model we'd trade Lester and/or Buchholz for younger pitching. The pieces came together for the A's this year - doesn't always work - but the Sox have the luxury of throwing tens of millions the rotation to augment it, not just hope Bartolo Colon doesn't get caught. When you only have 5 spots in the rotation and $60-80M (in extra money) to spend, do you spend $10-15M on an above average starter, or do you spend an extra $10M (+years) on a good-to-excellent starter?
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Post by pedroelgrande on Sept 20, 2012 14:59:05 GMT -5
More like my liking is not signing anyone.
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Post by remember04 on Sept 20, 2012 15:17:29 GMT -5
Why does the team need top-notch, ace-level, A #1 talent? Does Oakland have that? Quick, name all their starting pitchers. The premise is badly flawed. What you need are a decent supply of good, healthy pitchers with repeatable mechanics and a plan for how to integrate them with your bullpen. It doesn't matter whether their reasonably priced free-agent acquisitions or the product of your own farm system. What matters is that they're ready to give you some solid innings, that your offense can back them up, and that your late-inning relievers will hold on to leads. You need a team, and while it's nice to have a "star" - whatever that is - overpaying for talent is what got the team in a hole. Why should they climb back down into that hole? This may help you win a division but what about when you go against the Texas and Yankee lineups in the playoffs? Getting to the playoffs just to have your @$$ handed to you doesn't help much. You need at least one 2007 Beckett who can go out there and shut down whatever you throw at them.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 20, 2012 16:02:13 GMT -5
Given the lack of success at reaching even the first of those targets this year, I'd be willing to have the team slog it out and make the playoffs, and worry about what comes after that if they get there. That's always a bit of a crapshoot in any case, and maybe - just maybe - they have one of those Beckett-like (early version) aces working his way through the system right now, ready to contribute a year or two after that.
I don't think it's wise to talk about getting rid of 24 year-old pitchers, like Doubront, who after all, is just finishing up his first full major-league season. He's a perfectly serviceable 3rd or 4th starter. There's one piece to your puzzle right there. I don't want to see the team panic. They've got a good draft position, one that will shield them from having to give up their first round pick if they do decide to sign a free agent who's team has to be compensated. They've got cash on hand to start picking up more useful pieces. And they have good contracts with the players still on the roster. Best of all, they're getting younger, not older.
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