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Potential Free Agent Starter for Next Year?
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 13, 2012 13:52:14 GMT -5
Here are two players. I want you to look at the stats before going below and seeing who the players are. Player A: 8 seasons, entering age 31 season, 1501 IP, 3.81 ERA, 1201 K, 441 BB, 1.306 WHIP, 9.1 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.6 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 116 ERA+ Player B: 9 seasons, entering age 29 season, 1492 IP, 3.77 ERA, 1332 K, 379 BB, 1.247 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 114 ERA+ Player A is John Lackey before he signed with the Sox. Player B is Grienke right now. Both players had one great year where they put it all together ('07 for Lackey, '09 for Greinke), and were merely very good for the rest of those periods. Is Greinke still an ace to you? I think he's a good #3, perhaps even a serviceable #2, and he's going to get overpaid as an ace by someone because he's the best free agent pitcher available in a down pitching market, just like Lackey was. I'm not saying the deal would backfire as spectacularly as Lackey's did, but I think he's only a marginally better pitcher. That was great Chris. I think I can speak for everyone....can I PLEASE have that Lackey next year!
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Post by buffs4444 on Oct 13, 2012 15:43:50 GMT -5
Here are two players. I want you to look at the stats before going below and seeing who the players are. Player A: 8 seasons, entering age 31 season, 1501 IP, 3.81 ERA, 1201 K, 441 BB, 1.306 WHIP, 9.1 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.6 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 116 ERA+ Player B: 9 seasons, entering age 29 season, 1492 IP, 3.77 ERA, 1332 K, 379 BB, 1.247 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 114 ERA+ Player A is John Lackey before he signed with the Sox. Player B is Grienke right now. Both players had one great year where they put it all together ('07 for Lackey, '09 for Greinke), and were merely very good for the rest of those periods. Is Greinke still an ace to you? I think he's a good #3, perhaps even a serviceable #2, and he's going to get overpaid as an ace by someone because he's the best free agent pitcher available in a down pitching market, just like Lackey was. I'm not saying the deal would backfire as spectacularly as Lackey's did, but I think he's only a marginally better pitcher. All of this is with the utmost respect Chris..... A few things: - First, let's restrict the evaluation to the period after Greinke's medical conditions were addressed, which would include the 5 years prior to free agency. Lackey's 5 years prior to FA were his best, so this doesn't affect much.
- Next, lets use a more independent stat like FIP or xFIP. Comparing these stats you start to see two completely different pitchers. Your player A is much closer to a 2-3 starter, player B is easily a 1-2 starter
- Finally, look at the trend in the two years prior to FA: Lackey averaging career lows in IP (170IP) and breaking down in both seasons, Greinke averaging 190IP and would have been over 200IP again if not for breaking a rib playing hoops.
Compare a more independent stat like FIP or xFIP over 5 years prior to FA, or the previous 2 if you want to throw out the outlier/peak year for each player, and you're clearly looking at two different levels of pitcher. For a quick comparison, Fangraphs Compare tool shows this clearly as well: www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=1943&position=P&page=9&players=1507 Yes, Greinke has a medical condition, and I would encourage anyone with fears on that front to research anxiety disorders. Medication makes that a non-issue in most cases, and his numbers since diagnosis indicate he has that under control. Don't get me wrong, I want the FO to dive into the nitty gritty of any-and-every player that they sign going forward, but the more you dig into Greinke the more you see a player coming into his own as one of the elite players in this league.
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Post by jmei on Oct 13, 2012 16:21:49 GMT -5
Greinke has a consistent pattern of underperforming his FIP/xFIP. Between 2008 and 2012 and over 1035.2 innings, Greinke has a 3.05 FIP, 3.26 xFIP, but only a 3.39 ERA. Over a sample size that large, it is very unlikely that this is random noise, but instead shows a proclivity to giving up hits on balls in play. Indeed, Greinke's BABIP of .308 over that period is higher than average (between .290 and .300). However, he's also played on teams with bad defenses-- his teams were 17th, 30th, 27th, 9th, and 16th/2nd in UZR over those seasons-- so it's unclear to what extent the underperformance of his peripherals are his fault or his defense's.
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Post by bentossaurus on Oct 17, 2012 14:36:17 GMT -5
Here are two players. I want you to look at the stats before going below and seeing who the players are. Player A: 8 seasons, entering age 31 season, 1501 IP, 3.81 ERA, 1201 K, 441 BB, 1.306 WHIP, 9.1 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.6 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 116 ERA+ Player B: 9 seasons, entering age 29 season, 1492 IP, 3.77 ERA, 1332 K, 379 BB, 1.247 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 114 ERA+ Player A is John Lackey before he signed with the Sox. Player B is Grienke right now. Both players had one great year where they put it all together ('07 for Lackey, '09 for Greinke), and were merely very good for the rest of those periods. Is Greinke still an ace to you? I think he's a good #3, perhaps even a serviceable #2, and he's going to get overpaid as an ace by someone because he's the best free agent pitcher available in a down pitching market, just like Lackey was. I'm not saying the deal would backfire as spectacularly as Lackey's did, but I think he's only a marginally better pitcher. Not sure where you're trying to go with this. Player B not only is 2 years younger but also has better peripheral numbers all the way, not even considering the direction those peripheral were heading at that point. Lackey's had been declining for every year since age 26, while Greinke's not only are better but there's no trend showing (changing leagues and teams certainly has an effect on this, the extension is unknown though).
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Post by amfox1 on Oct 17, 2012 20:53:28 GMT -5
This is nonsense. Kuroda (who I wanted) or Jackson wouldn't have put the Sox into the playoffs. And they decided that the era of lux spending was over and it was time to begin operating with a realistic budget, not that the current rotation was good enough. And they did in fact replace the worst 3 pitchers from the 2011 rotation. And if they WERE going to spend they should have gotten Yu Darvish. FYP. The reality is that the roster itself wasn't the issue. The real issue is that the team, which self-destructed under Tito in September 2011, totally imploded under Bobby Valentine. With the coaching staff in complete disarray and a disconnect between the front office and the manager, the team got itself into a funk and couldn't get out of it. Significant injuries only added to the situation. The front office blew up the team (with the Punto trade) and decided to start over from the ground up. On July 31, the team was 53-51. The team finished the season 16-42, mainly playing September using Pawtucket's lineup.
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Post by redsoxprospects on Oct 18, 2012 1:39:35 GMT -5
I would seriously consider Kuroda. Why not do a 1-2 year deal with this guy? He has had great numbers for 5 years in a row, including last year in the AL East. It would be short term and probably not for all that much cash. $12-$15 mil per year at the most unless the Yanks want him back REAL BAD! And signing him away from the Yanks is a good thing isn't it?
Probably he resigns with the Yanks but why not make a run at him. I'd rather not do a long term deal with virtually any pitcher. I think Kuroda is the best shot.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Oct 18, 2012 4:08:46 GMT -5
I agree on Kuroda and I'd add John Lannan to the list of guys to target. He had a rough year, but has been a productive pitcher for his career. I think on most teams he'd be a solid back end starter and he should come very cheaply.
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Post by welovewally on Oct 18, 2012 5:08:01 GMT -5
I agree on Kuroda and I'd add John Lannan to the list of guys to target. He had a rough year, but has been a productive pitcher for his career. I think on most teams he'd be a solid back end starter and he should come very cheaply. I don't think Lannan is a free agent.
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 18, 2012 6:46:13 GMT -5
I would seriously consider Kuroda. Why not do a 1-2 year deal with this guy? He has had great numbers for 5 years in a row, including last year in the AL East. It would be short term and probably not for all that much cash. $12-$15 mil per year at the most unless the Yanks want him back REAL BAD! And signing him away from the Yanks is a good thing isn't it? Probably he resigns with the Yanks but why not make a run at him. I'd rather not do a long term deal with virtually any pitcher. I think Kuroda is the best shot. Kuroda was arguably the Yankees' best pitcher this year. He will be 38 so he likely values a place where he can "win now" as well as big bucks. He will very likely return to the Yankees. By bidding for him tho, maybe we can jack up the Yankees' costs. The real issue is whether we can force the Yankees into a 2 year deal with him to hamstring them in 2014 under the CBA.
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Post by soxin8 on Oct 18, 2012 16:23:43 GMT -5
Eric Van at SOSH said something that I thought was interesting. Kuroda, having such a good year, may receive a qualifying offer from NY which means if we did outbid NY for him, the Sox would be on the hook for their 2nd round pick. Under the new CBA, that pick is more valueable than 2nd round picks of previous years. The Sox may value that pick more than one year of Kuroda, but may be willing to forfeit it for someone who will be with the club longer and who may later turn into a pick for the Sox. Regardless,like sarasoxer,I expect Kuroda to resign with NY. I have also quoted from sources at soxprospects when passing along new info over at SOSH and jonasi does great work on both sites.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Oct 18, 2012 16:46:21 GMT -5
Wally: Lannan will be non-tendered soon.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 18, 2012 16:54:10 GMT -5
Lannan would get absolutely slaughtered in the AL East. Just crushed. It would be graphic and upsetting.
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Post by remember04 on Oct 18, 2012 17:49:46 GMT -5
Eric Van at SOSH said something that I thought was interesting. Kuroda, having such a good year, may receive a qualifying offer from NY which means if we did outbid NY for him, the Sox would be on the hook for their 2nd round pick. Under the new CBA, that pick is more valueable than 2nd round picks of previous years. The Sox may value that pick more than one year of Kuroda, but may be willing to forfeit it for someone who will be with the club longer and who may later turn into a pick for the Sox. Regardless,like sarasoxer,I expect Kuroda to resign with NY. I have also quoted from sources at soxprospects when passing along new info over at SOSH and jonasi does great work on both sites. The first part I'm honestly not sure if its true or not. In previous years we could certainly get buy better quality prospects with that pick then we can now but under the new rules we have less players eligible for compensation and less picks for the ones that are. The second part is the only thing I'm personally looking for in a player this off-season and I also see Kuroda staying with the Yankees.
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Post by bentossaurus on Oct 18, 2012 20:24:08 GMT -5
Haven't read Eric's post at SOSH but I'd reason that a 2nd round pick nowadays not only represents an added opportunity to add talent but also represents an opportunity to add budget space. So you can not only draft a player at the right time and pay him slot but also, if you wish so, draft a college senior with a military commitment and go heavy somewhere else. The new CBA adds a different dimension and management opportunity.
Also, with less players being offered compensation and the fact that a signing team loses the pick and everyone else steps up a place instead of the losing team receiving that pick, probably means that a 2nd rounder will be a higher pick overall, even when taking into consideration the competitive balance picks.
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wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,827
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Post by wcp3 on Oct 20, 2012 10:02:45 GMT -5
Here are two players. I want you to look at the stats before going below and seeing who the players are. Player A: 8 seasons, entering age 31 season, 1501 IP, 3.81 ERA, 1201 K, 441 BB, 1.306 WHIP, 9.1 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.6 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 116 ERA+ Player B: 9 seasons, entering age 29 season, 1492 IP, 3.77 ERA, 1332 K, 379 BB, 1.247 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 114 ERA+ Player A is John Lackey before he signed with the Sox. Am I crazy for thinking Lackey is going to be a useful pitcher this season? (I'm crazy, but for different reasons.)
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Post by remember04 on Oct 20, 2012 11:27:51 GMT -5
I honestly think Lackey could and maybe should have a bounce back year. He's had a lot of issues mentally and physically that should be behind him by now and his arm should be plenty rested. I can honestly see a scenario that has him being the top pitcher available at next years trade deadline.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 20, 2012 11:58:42 GMT -5
I certainaly wouldn't depend on Lackey being a good pitcher in 2013, but there are some things to consider. -He was a very good, sometimes great pitcher from 2006-2009. -He was a solid pitcher in 2010, especially in the second half. -In May 2011, there were reports he needed elbow surgery. He and the team insisted they were not true. -He pitched unbelievably terribly in 2011, far outside what one would expect for a pitcher with his kind of track record. After nine years where his career ERA was under 4.00 and his highest ERA was 4.67, he threw up a 6.41 in his age 32 season. -After 2011, we found out that he did, in fact, need elbow surgery.
That chain of events leads to the logical conclusion that he was pitching hurt in 2011 when he shouldn't have been. Still, not everyone bounces from surgery the same way, so it's important to temper the expectations a bit. The rotation is in such a state though that even 180 innings of slightly below average pitching would be quite welcome.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 20, 2012 12:10:38 GMT -5
/quote] Am I crazy for thinking Lackey is going to be a useful pitcher this season?
(I'm crazy, but for different reasons.)[/quote]
I wouldn't count on it. He was declining when he signed on with the Red Sox and three seasons have passed since. I guess if Barry Zito can do it, anybody can, but my guess is that Lackey will be somebody the Sox will be looking to peddle on July 31st next year. Hope he's good enough to fetch them some value.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 20, 2012 13:41:49 GMT -5
Lackey is a "lightning rod" for Red Sox Nation at the moment, but he could definitely deliver some quality starts next season for us. He was throwing some heat (96 mph) in Fort Myers at the Instructional League. He certainly may surprise us all.
Sign me up for 175 decent innings, if he can be healthy. He does not have to be an ace, and he never was. Lackey is one signing by Theo I understood over his last few years.
I was never on board for Julio Lugo or Carl Crawford, for different reasons. Attempting to pick up, at the least, an innings "eater", I understand.
Still Lackey has a lot of convincing to do. I know that, but I think he may be up for it.
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Post by kindasweaty on Oct 20, 2012 14:22:39 GMT -5
It's not the acquisition of John Lackey that confused most. It's how much he got, and for how long. Innings eaters are great, just not at that kind of cash.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 20, 2012 14:28:25 GMT -5
Considering the clause the Red Sox put into Lackey's contract upon signing; it's logical to assume that he was pitching injured for parts, or all, of his three down years.
I wouldn't be surprised if he bounced back to be a quality number 2 (which he was for most of his career) and more than earn the final three years of his contract. He doesn't strike as the type of pitcher who is going to throw in the towel now at the tail end of his career. If his shoulder permits, he will likely maximize his remaining talent.
And keep in mind, it is near impossible to get a quality number 2 pitcher on a 2 year contract with a third year option - everyone wants 4-5 years if they are good enough to get it.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 20, 2012 14:49:34 GMT -5
Considering the clause the Red Sox put into Lackey's contract upon signing; it's logical to assume that he was pitching injured for parts, or all, of his three down years. I wouldn't be surprised if he bounced back to be a quality number 2 (which he was for most of his career) and more than earn the final three years of his contract. He doesn't strike as the type of pitcher who is going to throw in the towel now at the tail end of his career. If his shoulder permits, he will likely maximize his remaining talent. And keep in mind, it is near impossible to get a quality number 2 pitcher on a 2 year contract with a third year option - everyone wants 4-5 years if they are good enough to get it. I like positive, but maybe a decent #3.
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Post by mredsox89 on Oct 20, 2012 14:58:54 GMT -5
There's very little, if any chance that Lackey becomes anywhere near what he's being paid. But at this point, what he's being paid is irrelevant. If he can be a serviceable 3/4 for the Sox behind Lester, Buchholz, and Doubront, it helps this team out a lot. Anything to avoid having to go to the Aaron Cooks of the world for 15+ starts
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Post by pedroiayouk1520 on Oct 20, 2012 17:03:21 GMT -5
Looking back at the 2012 rotation, Lester/Beckett/Buchholz/Doubront were the starters, Matsuzaka/Bard/Morales were the Wild Cards, and Cook was the spot start depth. Not only did 2 of the 3 Wild Cards not pan out, but our "top of the rotation starters" pitched mediocre at best.
Going into 2013, I think we essentially have to keep Lester/Buchholz/Doubront in the rotation because they are young with potential. As for Lackey, I would look at him as a Wild Card. Morales should be the bullpen depth and DeLaRosa/Webster should be your minor league depth. This way, if your 5-man rotation has issues, you can reach into the bullpen/minors to give the other guys a shot.
Since the Sox are so far away from the luxury tax threshold, I think it makes sense to sign 2 Starting Pitchers to short term deals (1-2 years) in order to give the rotation maximum potential (which also avoids blocking your prospects). Plus, the Sox are likely in the best position when it comes to offering 1-2 year deals because they have flexibility and there is very limited risk to slightly overpaying the market value on a short-term deal.
Let's say the Sox sign Kuroda and McCarthy to 1 year deals. That would force Lackey to actually pitch well enough to make the team (spring training and a TJS 30-day rehab?) instead of simply giving him a spot in the rotation. Another words, why make Lackey #4 on your depth chart when you can bump him down further? Rotation depth of Lester/Buchholz/Doubront/Kuroda/McCarthy/Lackey/Morales/DeLaRosa/Webster would be solid. That would give you 5 SPs, 2 Wild Cards, and 2 Prospects.
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Post by buffs4444 on Oct 27, 2012 0:05:55 GMT -5
Jackson/Kuroda are excellent supplementary targets, but this team needs an infusion of top end talent on the level of what Darvish would have provided if he were acquired last offseason. Greinke, Josh Johnson....those are the type of top end acquisitions this team needs to start the offseason, then add the secondary pieces like a Jackson after that. I'll keep stumping for it as long as it makes sense, you grab the only ace on the market and sign Greinke, which allows you to keep your trade assets for the harder acquisition (middle of the order hitter).
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