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Possible extension for Lester
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Post by iakovos11 on Dec 12, 2013 21:08:56 GMT -5
Nomar
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Post by Gwell55 on Dec 12, 2013 21:10:03 GMT -5
Wasn't that a malcontent too?
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Post by iakovos11 on Dec 12, 2013 21:13:33 GMT -5
Maybe, but it's really hard to tell what's really going on. Sometimes those stories get planted by source close to the team to help justify the trade.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 12, 2013 21:16:19 GMT -5
Totally different situation. Nomar had a year and a half left on his contract, was no longer an elite player, and the Red Sox were able to get the short term upgrade necessary to win a World Series. If the Red Sox are able to trade Lester for pieces that help them in 2014, that changes the calculation a bit, but this is a team built to win now - trading their most reliable and valuable pitcher in exchange for prospects because they're scared of losing him doesn't make sense.
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Post by iakovos11 on Dec 12, 2013 21:20:25 GMT -5
Agree 100% James.
I was just saying they did Nomar, still a frontline player for the Sox even if he wasn't elite, while owned by Henry et al.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Dec 12, 2013 21:32:53 GMT -5
I love Lester, but with all the young pitching the Sox have stacked in the minors, I'd pass if he wants more than 5/100 or 6/110, which are great offers and more money/year than Pedroia is getting. He was one of the biggest reasons the Sox won the WS and he is a great guy but if he is not willing to take the hometown discount, I'd say pass. Lester was really shaky at times this past season and I would be really nervous about more than 6/110.
Nomar also turned down a pretty generous contract extension at the time and rumor was that he strongly requested the trade. If Lester, for whatever reason, was fed up with Boston and strongly requested a trade last off season, maybe that gets done? Who knows.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 12, 2013 23:03:30 GMT -5
Don't see why everyone is going so high here. I would offer 5/90 and if he says no, go to free agency.
To me, there is too much of a chance that Lester would have a down year or get injured to offer more. And seeing as next years' free agent SPers are the best in recent memory, there may be a better player available if you are talking $20+ mil deals.
Even if Lest has a great year, I don't see him getting close the $25+ mil next year as there are too many good alternatives and there won't be enough teams willing to shell out that kind of cash.
Scherzer, Tanaka, Kershaw may all be upgrades over Lester and Bailey would probably be better on a long term deal due to his age. Even if they miss on all of these guys, Shields and Masterson aren't slouches. And don't forget all of the near-MLB ready arms the Red Sox have.
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 12, 2013 23:24:56 GMT -5
The thing with Lester is that even when he hasn't been great, he's still been very good. 6 consecutive years of 3+ WAR and 6 consecutive years of 190+ innings. Certainly nothing about him rings "likely to get hurt" or likely to put in a complete stinker of a season.
Kershaw is on another level, and he will get 25-30 per year. Shields has put up similar numbers over the last 6 to Lester, but being a few years older and a RHP will likely be half a level below Lester at this point. Lester will likely be the #2 pitcher available (3 if Tanaka is there next year) and will get $20M per for 5+ years.
No matter how many arms near MLB ready the Sox have, there's very little chance any of them are #1 starters for a few years, and would likely be into the prime of their career at the end of a Lester extension, which would actually work well
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 13, 2013 0:00:04 GMT -5
The thing with Lester is that even when he hasn't been great, he's still been very good. 6 consecutive years of 3+ WAR and 6 consecutive years of 190+ innings. Certainly nothing about him rings "likely to get hurt" or likely to put in a complete stinker of a season. Kershaw is on another level, and he will get 25-30 per year. Shields has put up similar numbers over the last 6 to Lester, but being a few years older and a RHP will likely be half a level below Lester at this point. Lester will likely be the #2 pitcher available (3 if Tanaka is there next year) and will get $20M per for 5+ years. No matter how many arms near MLB ready the Sox have, there's very little chance any of them are #1 starters for a few years, and would likely be into the prime of their career at the end of a Lester extension, which would actually work well Lester wasn't even worth one WAR in 2012. I have to think that I'd start at the 5 years 85 million. I wouldn't go above 5 years 100 million. Don't think Lester is looking for top of the market dollar, just a fair deal.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 13, 2013 0:28:00 GMT -5
Fangraphs has him at 3.2 WAR in '12, but that's more a sign that Fangraphs WAR calculation is broken than a sign of how well he pitched.
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 13, 2013 0:43:43 GMT -5
I was going off Fangraphs FWIW. But his peripherals (FIP and XFIP) weren't all that different from 2011 and 2012 but his ERA was almost a run and a half higher. He didn't look very good in 2012, but I don't think he was nearly as bad as it is made out to be. From what I can gather, the difference in WAR is that BR bases a lot of it off runs allowed whereas Fangraphs goes off FIP. So therefore Fangraphs has 11/12 as fairly similar seasons where BR has them as vastly different years. I tend to lean more towards FIP
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Post by ikonos on Dec 13, 2013 1:28:09 GMT -5
The only pitchers with $25m contracts are Verlander, Felix etc with CY on their resume and there is no way Lester will get that much. It will be somewhere in the 19m-22m range which is higher than the second contracts Beckett and Verlander signed. I like him and they should sign him and they will get it done for 5-6 yrs and possibly 90-115 range.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 13, 2013 9:30:48 GMT -5
Often they would sign it right after the season started, which is why Lester said spring training. Is that because or like what happened with Adrian Gonzales and his extension so it wouldn't be counted in this years Luxury tax if they wait to sign until after the season started. I think that is the way it goes and if so wouldn't that effect Lester and this year's tax? Yes, signing after the season won't affect this years tax calculation.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 13, 2013 9:32:43 GMT -5
I don't want to trade him. They don't "only" get the pick if they keep him for the year - they get the pick and Lester's 2014 season, which should be pretty good. It's very likely that his 2014 will be worth more than the difference between the 30th (or so) pick and whatever they could get for him in a deal. Look at the Ellsbury deal. They didn't just get a draft pick because they kept him this year - they got a draft pick and championship. The Red Sox are a championship level team in 2014 with Lester on it, something they may not be without him. Big market contending teams don't trade stars they are worried about not signing. That's an advantage to being a big market team.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 13, 2013 9:42:41 GMT -5
The only pitchers with $25m contracts are Verlander, Felix etc with CY on their resume and there is no way Lester will get that much. It will be somewhere in the 19m-22m range which is higher than the second contracts Beckett and Verlander signed. I like him and they should sign him and they will get it done for 5-6 yrs and possibly 90-115 range.It'll probably be a decent enough signing at that price, but I do wonder if this is one area where big-budget teams tend to suffer versus the Oaklands and Tampas of the world. If you have the money, you're compelled to spend it, and what you generally end up with is an expensive player who's past his peak. Whereas if you don't have the money, you're compelled to flip the guy, which is usually the better move in the long term and sometimes even in the short term. It's not that working with a limited budget is itself an advantage, but being ruthless is, and a limited budget gives teams an excuse to be ruthless. Not actually too sure about this theory but it's something that's been on my mind lately.
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Post by buffs4444 on Dec 13, 2013 9:45:17 GMT -5
Don't see why everyone is going so high here. I would offer 5/90 and if he says no, go to free agency. To me, there is too much of a chance that Lester would have a down year or get injured to offer more. And seeing as next years' free agent SPers are the best in recent memory, there may be a better player available if you are talking $20+ mil deals. Even if Lest has a great year, I don't see him getting close the $25+ mil next year as there are too many good alternatives and there won't be enough teams willing to shell out that kind of cash. Scherzer, Tanaka, Kershaw may all be upgrades over Lester and Bailey would probably be better on a long term deal due to his age. Even if they miss on all of these guys, Shields and Masterson aren't slouches. And don't forget all of the near-MLB ready arms the Red Sox have. 5/$90M? Holy cow, when did we become the Royals? Lester has been a Sox all his career, wants to remain that way, and has stated he's willing to take a discount. That should put him comfortably in the $20M/yr range, probably for 5 years or 6 with a club option if they want to let his agent talk it up a little. The next free agent class will be good.....as of now. Remember we were talking about the Lincecum and Verlander markets, then life stepped in and made Timmy somewhat average and Verlander re-signed. The Tigers aren't spending and are purging contracts already so that they can re-sign Max, the Dodgers reportedly already offered $300M, and a few more on that market will probably do the same leaving slimmer pickings and driving the prices up for the remaining arms next year. Add to that we are already looking at replacing 2-3 starters from the current rotation after this year (depending on how this winter shakes out with trades, etc) and it's very unlikely that they they don't have something in the works with Lester very, very soon.
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Post by oilcansman on Dec 13, 2013 9:58:36 GMT -5
Lester has outperformed Greinke, whose contract is 6 yrs. at $148 million. Free agency is only a year away for Lester and there are few good pitchers who make it to free agency. It's a pretty sure bet Yankees would give Lester 7 years to get him away from Sox. The going rate is $25 mill per season for him. If Lester has a good agent, the ask is probably 8 years $200M. A fair deal probably is 6 years $150 million. Sox need to either get something done by Feb. or trade Lester. If Lester reaches free agency he's a goner and the Sox can't lose him for a sandwich pick. The only thing Lester has outperformed Greinke at is wearing a B on his hat. You obviously have not looked at the numbers. It's amazing how similar they are. The fact that Lester has been a wizard in the post season, while Greinke hasn't, gives Lester the clear edge. Anybody who thinks Lester is signing for 5x20 or 6x20 just isn't paying attention to the market. He's going to get 7x25 in free agency next year. Maybe he'll do 6x25 to buy off the risk of injury or sudden drop in performance this year. As for hometown discount, he was born in Washington State. Maybe he'll give one to the Mariners next year. Sabathia and Verlander's contracts are not current to this marketplace. If John Lackey was a free agent this year, he'd probably get 3x20.
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Post by buffs4444 on Dec 13, 2013 10:24:07 GMT -5
The only thing Lester has outperformed Greinke at is wearing a B on his hat. You obviously have not looked at the numbers. It's amazing how similar they are. The fact that Lester has been a wizard in the post season, while Greinke hasn't, gives Lester the clear edge. Anybody who thinks Lester is signing for 5x20 or 6x20 just isn't paying attention to the market. He's going to get 7x25 in free agency next year. Maybe he'll do 6x25 to buy off the risk of injury or sudden drop in performance this year. As for hometown discount, he was born in Washington State. Maybe he'll give one to the Mariners next year. Sabathia and Verlander's contracts are not current to this marketplace. If John Lackey was a free agent this year, he'd probably get 3x20. Lester: comfortably in the $20M/yr range, but not necessarily looking to shatter the previous benchmarks....
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Post by mainesox on Dec 13, 2013 11:25:46 GMT -5
The only thing Lester has outperformed Greinke at is wearing a B on his hat. You obviously have not looked at the numbers. It's amazing how similar they are. The fact that Lester has been a wizard in the post season, while Greinke hasn't, gives Lester the clear edge. Anybody who thinks Lester is signing for 5x20 or 6x20 just isn't paying attention to the market. He's going to get 7x25 in free agency next year. Maybe he'll do 6x25 to buy off the risk of injury or sudden drop in performance this year. As for hometown discount, he was born in Washington State. Maybe he'll give one to the Mariners next year. Sabathia and Verlander's contracts are not current to this marketplace. If John Lackey was a free agent this year, he'd probably get 3x20. Since 2011:JLester: 4.03 ERA (95 ERA-), 3.84 FIP (91 FIP-), 3.78 xFIP (93 xFIP-), 4.26 tERA, 3.84 SIERA, 2.50 K/BB, 1.31 WHIP Greinke: 3.32 ERA (87 ERA-), 3.10 FIP (81 FIP-), 3.09 xFIP (80 xFIP-), 3.69 tERA, 3.21 SIERA, 3.79 K/BB, 1.17 WHIP That's amazingly similar?
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 13, 2013 11:43:56 GMT -5
The only pitchers with $25m contracts are Verlander, Felix etc with CY on their resume and there is no way Lester will get that much. It will be somewhere in the 19m-22m range which is higher than the second contracts Beckett and Verlander signed. I like him and they should sign him and they will get it done for 5-6 yrs and possibly 90-115 range.It'll probably be a decent enough signing at that price, but I do wonder if this is one area where big-budget teams tend to suffer versus the Oaklands and Tampas of the world. If you have the money, you're compelled to spend it, and what you generally end up with is an expensive player who's past his peak. Whereas if you don't have the money, you're compelled to flip the guy, which is usually the better move in the long term and sometimes even in the short term. It's not that working with a limited budget is itself an advantage, but being ruthless is, and a limited budget gives teams an excuse to be ruthless. Not actually too sure about this theory but it's something that's been on my mind lately. Like most things in life it's not black and white, but your not entirely wrong. The key is knowing what limits your willing to stick to and work within them. I think the Pedey extension was too long on paper, but the AAV is so reasonable it makes it a risk worth taking for a team like the Red Sox. Lester, due to his durability and performance seems like a good risk at 5 years. Jacoby would have been worth the risk at 5 years, but Ben it seems, early on, like he's not going to give a player both the years and the AAV. The Red Sox spending ability means they don't have to trade a guy before he becomes a free agent because they can fill in a lot of holes with the Drews, Gomes, Victorinos of the world through FA. They've also drafted well later in the draft so getting the pick and the year of the player makes a lot of sense for them. Small markets need to fill their entire roster with home grown talent, trades and budget free agents. That means you need even more home grown guys than teams like the Sox.
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Post by oilcansman on Dec 13, 2013 13:15:05 GMT -5
Mainesox:
I'm always curious when somebody cherry picks numbers. Hmm, you conveniently start in 2011. What you are doing is taking one bad season Lester had in 2012 (the only one of his career) and using it to skew the numbers. Rest assured, neither Lester's agent or the other MLB teams will follow such a formula. The market considers career numbers and a players most recent season far more than any other formula.
Lester career win percentage better (not an important consideration really). ERA .10 less than Greinke. Greinke pitched to National League last three years, while Lester has AL in Fenway Park. Only the ignorant wouldn't give Lester the edge here. Lester fewer career innings by 300. Strikeouts to innings Lester is a little better. BB/SO Greinke is a little better. Greinke has been pitching against pitcher and #8 batter in NL lineup last three years, while Lester has pitched to D.H. Lester strikeout and bb/so numbers will be viewed as better than Greinke's. Lester has won HUGE post season games in a tough market. Greinke is a question in the post season and has a history of anxiety problems.
Greinke won a cy young in 2009. That's the only thing he has over Lester, and it happened four years ago. Lester has two all star games, while Greinke has one.
When Greinke got his huge contract he was coming off a year where his ERA was 3.48 in the NL. Lester is coming off a 3.75 ERA in the AL and post season domination (which has not been factored into his ERA for 2013). The ERA adjustment between NL and AL is anywhere from .25 to .50 (I think its .50 but I defer to some our moderator on this issue). So Lester had a better season in 2013 than Greinke had in the year leading up to his contract when considering post season domination.
Mainesox, the problem is you didn't really do your homework before making your silly admonition of my opinion.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 13, 2013 13:24:47 GMT -5
It's always a good time when a poster calls another out for cherry picking stats then goes on to do the same.
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Post by oilcansman on Dec 13, 2013 13:33:54 GMT -5
It's always a good time when a poster calls another out for cherry picking stats then goes on to do the same. Give me an example and show me how I tried to skew a result.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 13, 2013 13:38:29 GMT -5
Mainesox: I'm always curious when somebody cherry picks numbers. Hmm, you conveniently start in 2011. What you are doing is taking one bad season Lester had in 2012 (the only one of his career) and using it to skew the numbers. Rest assured, neither Lester's agent or the other MLB teams will follow such a formula. The market considers career numbers and a players most recent season far more than any other formula. You do realize that almost every projection system weighs a players most recent three years more heavily (almost exclusively) when projecting future performance. The fact that Grienke has been a much better pitcher for 2011,2012,and 2013 means a whole whole lot more than the fact that Lester was better in 2010 and 2008. Lester career win percentage better (not an important consideration really). Actually not a consideration at all. Winning percentage, really. Rck Hellings 1998 season is better using winning percentage than Felix Hernandez's 2011.ERA .10 less than Greinke. Greinke pitched to National League last three years, while Lester has AL in Fenway Park. Only the ignorant wouldn't give Lester the edge here. Lester fewer career innings by 300. FIP would indicate that Lester has actually pitched in a more forgiving environment than Greinke over the past three years. Which would make sense if you think about some of the great defensive players the Sox have had in recent seasonsStrikeouts to innings Lester is a little better. Too bad Greinke has been better in not allowing hits and walksBB/SO Greinke is a little better. Greinke has been pitching against pitcher and #8 batter in NL lineup last three years, while Lester has pitched to D.H. Lester strikeout and bb/so numbers will be viewed as better than Greinke's. Lester has won HUGE post season games in a tough market. Greinke is a question in the post season and has a history of anxiety problems. Yes lets ignore a three year sample in favor of 5 (admittedly awesome) post season starts.Greinke won a cy young in 2009. That's the only thing he has over Lester, and it happened four years ago. Well besides having been better each of the past three seasonsLester has two all star games, while Greinke has one. Scott Cooper was also a two time All StarWhen Greinke got his huge contract he was coming off a year where his ERA was 3.48 in the NL. Lester is coming off a 3.75 ERA in the AL and post season domination (which has not been factored into his ERA for 2013). The ERA adjustment between NL and AL is anywhere from .25 to .50 (I think its .50 but I defer to some our moderator on this issue). So Lester had a better season in 2013 than Greinke had in the year leading up to his contract when considering post season domination. Mainesox, the problem is you didn't really do your homework before making your silly admonition of my opinion. He did, he is factually right in everything he stated. You are the one using bogus stats, awful samples, and silly pseudo sports psychology.
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Post by ray88h66 on Dec 13, 2013 13:41:20 GMT -5
I'm a big fan of Lester and would like to see him extended. I think availability is underrated in judging players value. But Fenway makes a good point. I'd go higher per year for a shorter contract. 4 or 5 years. If he insists on more you take the draft pick and thank him for the years and World Series performances. Like Dustin though, he's one of the rare guys I'd risk giving big deals who are on the wrong side of the age curve.
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