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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 3, 2014 16:22:37 GMT -5
Doubront came into camp in great shape this year according to reports. If you care to read just Google it, I'm too lazy to get a link,but it's been well publicized.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,944
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 3, 2014 17:24:42 GMT -5
Really cool responses to my analysis, which I'm alas way too busy at the current moment to respond to in detail. I do hope to get to it later in the week. (Folks may have noticed that I'm posting a lot less, and this will continue for perhaps a year or more. I'm trying to focus as much as possible on a massive, non-baseball project ...)
Short replies, though:
1) Analysis was meant to be suggestive, and supportive of scouting impressions that he pitched better in that stretch. I was pretty much messing around to see if there was any suggestion that it wasn't all luck, with emphasis as shown.
2) Yes, all pitchers run hot and cold. Because the ERA split is so large, it's possible that Doubront, in that stretch, demonstrated more variability than most pitchers and hence more upside. Like anything that's about upside, it's not predictive.
3) If this was at all real, that he first did something to limit BABIP and then made an adjustment to limit HRC is a hypothesis to be examined with pitch/fx data. I've always felt that pitchers have ways of lowering BABIP in the short run, but hitters almost always make adjustments by learning to take the pitchers that induce easy contact.
The bottom line is this. I don't think what Doubront did last year tells us anything about what we will do this year. What it does do, I'm saying, is remove the "didn't-see-that-coming" from the statistical take on him, should he blossom into a #2 type. We already have some scouting impressions that he has that upside, and there's the best shape of his life that he's in. This analysis opens up the possibility that he's actually demonstrated something like that level of performance for a significant chunk of time.
Basically, for those of us who want to dream about a Doubront breakthrough, it's an argument in favor of that dream being more realistic than it would be, had he not had a stretch like that, with the patterns I found. How much it argues that point, and how much you want to dream, is of course up to you.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 3, 2014 17:46:20 GMT -5
Doubront has changed quite a bit since he first came into the league. He's pitching to contact a lot more now whereas before he was trying to strike everyone out. This is to get him through more innings. I'm really curious about his velocity in that first ST game, but apparently no one had a radar gun.
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Post by okin15 on Mar 4, 2014 14:49:02 GMT -5
I don't think Doubront is a good guy to go long on in years. He seems to respond to challenges and having something to work for, and a multi-year contract could easily negate that interest. Related, I'm not sure that attitude is the perfect fit for a veteran in Boston. I'm sure they'd take it if he were good, but I want him to earn it. that attitude along with the good, but it's still not the type of player I'd want them to commit to too early.
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Post by jmei on Mar 6, 2014 9:56:53 GMT -5
Moved the bulk of the stats discussion to its own thread in the throwdown forum.
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Post by michael on Mar 7, 2014 17:41:52 GMT -5
Doubront looked super today v a pretty solid top of the Braves lineup. Forty nine pitches, 29 strikes over 4 innings. Sure it's only ST but as opposed to previous years he appears much more fit and ready. Good omen
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