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Baseball America Red Sox Top 10 Prospects
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Post by mainesox on Dec 18, 2013 18:56:31 GMT -5
Yeah, but Badley had already said that the 10 guys on Speier's top-10 list are all in the mix for top-100 ... so the relative ranking of them within that is irrelevant to the statement that 11 are in the mix. That said, I don't think there's any way they get 10 guys on the top 100, even 8 feels very unlikely. I believe Callis said on Alex Speier's podcast that nine Red Sox made MLB.com's top 100 list (with Cecchini, Webster, Swihart and Betts all being between 47 and 59 on Callis' personal list and Ball and Ranaudo being near the bottom of the top 100). I'm actually listening to this right now, and he says he's got 9 on his personal list, and Workman isn't qualified (no word on whether or not he would have made it). He also said he doesn't actually have Ball on his top 100, but Mayo has him pretty high on his, so he thinks Ball probably make it too. Link
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 18, 2013 19:00:22 GMT -5
“@globechadfinn: Having a fun back-and-forth with a Yankees fan who says the Sox' farm system is no better than NY's. Cites Banuelos, Betances as examples.”
Lollollololololol
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Post by jmei on Dec 18, 2013 19:02:09 GMT -5
2. Ranaudo at number 11. has already been talked about so I don't have to reiterate, but still crazy... I have to say, I agree with Speier in that I don't think Ranaudo is that great of a prospect. He's got a great frame, but I've never really been impressed with his stuff or his command/pitchability. His fastball is pretty meh (not a lot of movement, good but not great velocity, middling command at best), and while his curveball has that classic hammer curve movement, he needs to get hitters to chase it, which won't happen frequently enough until he turns his fastball into a true weapon. The changeup has improved but it isn't consistent enough yet. He doesn't get a ton of Ks, walks more hitters than he should, and is a fly ball pitcher (43.6% GB at Pawtucket, 42.8% at Portland). I much prefer Barnes' ability to get swings-and-misses on his fastball or Webster's ridiculous stuff or Workman's ability to pound the zone.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 18, 2013 19:29:14 GMT -5
I agree with you on Ranaudo as a prospect overall and I'm not all that high on Barnes either. I'm a lot more impressed with Workman than either, but that has everything to do with his major league success and what I've seen him do vs major league batters. We'll see on the others nice they get here.
Regarding Ranaudo and his curve. I think his ability to throw it for strikes when he wants more then his fastball will determine its effectiveness. Guys with hammer curves struggle in MLB when they lose strike throwing ability with it. It's an easy pitch to recognize so if there is no fear of it being a strike hitters lay off it all day. when Becket struggled, it often (not always) was because his curve wasn't a strike threat.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 18, 2013 20:03:50 GMT -5
Listening to the Callis/Speier podcast, I'm super excited about Swihart now and I already was.
They came up with the quote "Swihart has the Buster Posey starter toolkit".
And they agreed that JBJ could be better than Ellsbury.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 18, 2013 20:28:05 GMT -5
2. Ranaudo at number 11. has already been talked about so I don't have to reiterate, but still crazy... I have to say, I agree with Speier in that I don't think Ranaudo is that great of a prospect. He's got a great frame, but I've never really been impressed with his stuff or his command/pitchability. His fastball is pretty meh (not a lot of movement, good but not great velocity, middling command at best), and while his curveball has that classic hammer curve movement, he needs to get hitters to chase it, which won't happen frequently enough until he turns his fastball into a true weapon. The changeup has improved but it isn't consistent enough yet. He doesn't get a ton of Ks, walks more hitters than he should, and is a fly ball pitcher (43.6% GB at Pawtucket, 42.8% at Portland). I much prefer Barnes' ability to get swings-and-misses on his fastball or Webster's ridiculous stuff or Workman's ability to pound the zone. I think that if you just look at (some) aspects of his pedigree and (some parts of) his statistical record, you can fool yourself into thinking he's a #2 in waiting. But the larger picture is of a pitcher who's got a lot of issues with velocity, arsenal, and consistency. Again this comes back to my Clay Buchholz principle -- we tend to assume that when a player is doing well, that's the real version of the player, and when he's injured or ineffective, that's an aberration. But you have to look at the whole body of work.
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Post by dewey1972 on Dec 18, 2013 20:56:30 GMT -5
I've been tracking the "How many of these prospects do you think will make the top 100?" questions from the chats. All but two of the chatters (Reds and Rays) have answered that basic question. Obviously, these need to be taken with a huge grain of salt, as many of the chatters have no input on the top 100 (and they've all acknowledged that). But it's also true that they're answering that question after having talked it through with, I think, at least a couple of the people who do. In the end adding in my ballpark for the Reds and Rays, so far they've said 61, with another 23 mentioned as possible. There are ten teams left, which include a few strong systems (Astros, Rangers, Twins) and some really weak systems (Angels, White Sox, Tigers).
It does seem hard to imagine that Ball wouldn't make the top 100, for the reasons someone else enumerated before: the #7 pick in a deep draft, not thought of as a reach. If he makes it, that would mean eight given Speier's comment, with Barnes, Ranaudo, and Workman all very good possibilities.
I was curious about how many prospects a really good system has had in the past. I looked back at the Royals before 2011: they had eight. More incredibly, they had five in the top 20. Which is really sobering, given that those five have so far turned into two nothing specials (Hosmer, Moustakas), two nothings (Lamb and Montgomery), and one guy who looks like a star but whom Dayton Moore traded (Myers). This is a good reminder for me that of Webster, de la Rosa, Barnes, Ranaudo, Owens, and Workman, it's quite likely that only one or two will turn into a good starting pitcher.
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 18, 2013 20:57:26 GMT -5
I loved the discussion of the unknowns. Callis talking about how he kept hearing buzz about a DSL player so he finally relented to put him at 17, despite a lack of Stateside experience. He then emails Shipley, who usually never spoke to him, saying "do you think I'm too aggressive putting Bogaerts at 17" and gets back a "too low" response.
We can only hope the Devers and Margot examples follow that path.
Somewhat disappointed not to hear anything about Rijo in any of the discussions or rankings. Was hoping he was a surprise riser.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 18, 2013 21:32:40 GMT -5
I expect Hosmer to turn into a monster this year. In fact, I think he turned into one second half of last year.
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Post by ramireja on Dec 18, 2013 22:22:13 GMT -5
The Speier/Callis podcast makes me giddy. Is it really only December?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 18, 2013 22:54:28 GMT -5
Based on the statements, Callis order is:
1 Xander 2 Bradley 3 Owens 4 Checchini 5 Webster 6 Swihart 7 Betts 8 Ranaudo 9 Barnes 10 Ball 11 Vazquez
Some of the statements: Worman is not eligible for MLB's list. Callis said JBJ might be a better overall player than Ellsbury was. Margot and Betts are the two 5 tool guys in the system. Ball and Stankiewics are the only two from last years draft that are on Speier's top 30. Vinicio took the biggest fall in the system. Coyle is #31 for Speier Betts has a higher ceiling than Checchini and Callis said best set of tools of any minor league second baseman and Speier siad that some evaluators had him as high as #3 and as low as low teens. Buttery's velocity drop is troublesome (was used as an example of Speier's reluctance to put people with little experience on his lists.) The top 8 Callis are on his Top 100 list and as previously stated, Ball will likely make MLB's Top 100 because of where Mayo has Ball. Ball might have the highest ceiling of the pitchers. They both agreed that Cecchini, Swihart, Webster and Betts are a very close call.
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Post by amarshal2 on Dec 18, 2013 23:36:10 GMT -5
Not much to add, but just want to chime in and say how ridiculously exciting this system is today. The Red Sox have done an incredible job building talent. We all know how hard it is to get first-team starters -- I feel like I'm still waiting for Buchholz to put together a full season at 75% of his potential -- but the odds look as good as they ever have.
I did find the Webster/Buchholz comparisons to be a little odd. Buchholz is the best Red Sox pitching prospect I've ever followed (although I guess that's somewhat debatable in that Lester turned into the best big leaguer). He dominated AA in ways that Webster never has and he didn't really struggle until he hit majors. It's taken much longer for Clay to adjust than anybody expected, but we've seen how good he can be in the majors if he ever stays healthy. Webster may have ridiculous stuff but he doesn't have Clay's track record.
Thanks for the good read, everybody.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 18, 2013 23:44:29 GMT -5
Not much to add, but just want to chime in and say how ridiculously exciting this system is today. The Red Sox have done an incredible job building talent. We all know how hard it is to get first-team starters -- I feel like I'm still waiting for Buchholz to put together a full season at 75% of his potential -- but the odds look as good as they ever have. I did find the Webster/Buchholz comparisons to be a little odd. Buchholz is the best Red Sox pitching prospect I've ever followed (although I guess that's somewhat debatable in that Lester turned into the best big leaguer). He dominated AA in ways that Webster never has and he didn't really struggle until he hit majors. It's taken much longer for Clay to adjust than anybody expected, but we've seen how good he can be in the majors if he ever stays healthy. Webster may have ridiculous stuff but he doesn't have Clay's track record. Thanks for the good read, everybody. They are compared because they have similar stuff and they have the same number of ridiculously filthy pitches. That's about it.
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Post by h11233 on Dec 18, 2013 23:51:41 GMT -5
I loved the discussion of the unknowns. Callis talking about how he kept hearing buzz about a DSL player so he finally relented to put him at 17, despite a lack of Stateside experience. He then emails Shipley, who usually never spoke to him, saying "do you think I'm too aggressive putting Bogaerts at 17" and gets back a "too low" response. We can only hope the Devers and Margot examples follow that path. Somewhat disappointed not to hear anything about Rijo in any of the discussions or rankings. Was hoping he was a surprise riser. He briefly discussed Rijo vs Lin in the chat. I don't remember exactly what was said, but pretty sure it was along the lines of Rijo can be an MLB regular while Lin is likely a utiliy type.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 18, 2013 23:57:57 GMT -5
One other note Speier said he put Barnes over Ranaudo because he believes that MLB is trending towards pitchers with the second offering being the change as opposed to the curve.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 19, 2013 0:07:15 GMT -5
Not much to add, but just want to chime in and say how ridiculously exciting this system is today. The Red Sox have done an incredible job building talent. We all know how hard it is to get first-team starters -- I feel like I'm still waiting for Buchholz to put together a full season at 75% of his potential -- but the odds look as good as they ever have. I did find the Webster/Buchholz comparisons to be a little odd. Buchholz is the best Red Sox pitching prospect I've ever followed (although I guess that's somewhat debatable in that Lester turned into the best big leaguer). He dominated AA in ways that Webster never has and he didn't really struggle until he hit majors. It's taken much longer for Clay to adjust than anybody expected, but we've seen how good he can be in the majors if he ever stays healthy. Webster may have ridiculous stuff but he doesn't have Clay's track record. Thanks for the good read, everybody. In the podcast the similarities discussed were confined to Webster's MLB struggles this year and Clay's second year struggles. It wasn't a pitcher comparison.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Dec 19, 2013 7:27:13 GMT -5
Not much to add, but just want to chime in and say how ridiculously exciting this system is today. The Red Sox have done an incredible job building talent. We all know how hard it is to get first-team starters -- I feel like I'm still waiting for Buchholz to put together a full season at 75% of his potential -- but the odds look as good as they ever have. I did find the Webster/Buchholz comparisons to be a little odd. Buchholz is the best Red Sox pitching prospect I've ever followed (although I guess that's somewhat debatable in that Lester turned into the best big leaguer). He dominated AA in ways that Webster never has and he didn't really struggle until he hit majors. It's taken much longer for Clay to adjust than anybody expected, but we've seen how good he can be in the majors if he ever stays healthy. Webster may have ridiculous stuff but he doesn't have Clay's track record. Thanks for the good read, everybody. Whoa, look what the cat dragged in! How ya doin', AMarsh?
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Post by burythehammer on Dec 19, 2013 7:51:41 GMT -5
“@globechadfinn: Having a fun back-and-forth with a Yankees fan who says the Sox' farm system is no better than NY's. Cites Banuelos, Betances as examples.” Lollollololololol Finding ignorant people on twitter is about as tough as finding snow on the ground in New England right now. And plenty of them are Red Sox fans too.
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Post by Don Caballero on Dec 19, 2013 8:24:46 GMT -5
“@globechadfinn: Having a fun back-and-forth with a Yankees fan who says the Sox' farm system is no better than NY's. Cites Banuelos, Betances as examples.” Along with Andrew Brackman you have the Killer B's and also 3 non prospects.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 19, 2013 8:33:35 GMT -5
“@globechadfinn: Having a fun back-and-forth with a Yankees fan who says the Sox' farm system is no better than NY's. Cites Banuelos, Betances as examples.” Lollollololololol Finding ignorant people on twitter is about as tough as finding snow on the ground in New England right now. And plenty of them are Red Sox fans too. Hopefully that means they're all going to melt in the rain this weekend.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 19, 2013 10:28:13 GMT -5
Not much to add, but just want to chime in and say how ridiculously exciting this system is today. The Red Sox have done an incredible job building talent. We all know how hard it is to get first-team starters -- I feel like I'm still waiting for Buchholz to put together a full season at 75% of his potential -- but the odds look as good as they ever have. I did find the Webster/Buchholz comparisons to be a little odd. Buchholz is the best Red Sox pitching prospect I've ever followed (although I guess that's somewhat debatable in that Lester turned into the best big leaguer). He dominated AA in ways that Webster never has and he didn't really struggle until he hit majors. It's taken much longer for Clay to adjust than anybody expected, but we've seen how good he can be in the majors if he ever stays healthy. Webster may have ridiculous stuff but he doesn't have Clay's track record. Thanks for the good read, everybody. Wow, we need Jim Ross for this one. "Ohmygawd, that's Amarshal2's music!"
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Dec 19, 2013 10:34:07 GMT -5
in my best sam the eagle voice
" I find this latest post to be completely irreverent and non baseball related. It also refers to professional wrestling, which is well beneath the goals of this site.
While laugh out load funny, and hinting of Simmons, it clearly violates article 2 section three of the posting code.
Please remove it immediately"
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Post by brianthetaoist on Dec 19, 2013 10:41:40 GMT -5
That Callis/Speier podcast was great and very exciting to hear about all the good prospects the Sox have, for sure, but the one discordant note was when Callis made the point that this is similar to the offseason after the 2007 World Series: Sox coming off a WS win, #2 farm system in the game according to BA, looked like the "player development machine" was kicking into high gear and a string of championships would follow. But, alas, while he didn't make the point, it struck me that the next few years didn't turn out as well as I would've hoped back then.
Granted, I would make an argument that the Sox system is qualitatively better now than it was then, but still, it's the always-appropriate cautionary tale that you just never know.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 19, 2013 11:07:49 GMT -5
in my best sam the eagle voice " I find this latest post to be completely irreverent and non baseball related. It also refers to professional wrestling, which is well beneath the goals of this site. While laugh out load funny, and hinting of Simmons, it clearly violates article 2 section three of the posting code. Please remove it immediately" Outstanding. A+ to you, sir. (And for those who don't know who Amarshal2 is, he was a moderator way back during the ezboard days of this forum.) Back on topic, our podcast with Alex is recorded, and will be online later tonight, with the news page post going up in the morning.
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Post by amarshal2 on Dec 19, 2013 11:27:51 GMT -5
Haha. I don't have any insight to share these days - just here to absorb. I've been reading along on and off for years and figured it was about time I get a user name again. Great to see the site and the prospects it follows improving every year.
Sorry for the disruption. Back to your normal programming.
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