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Baseball America Red Sox Top 10 Prospects
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Post by bmitchsox on Dec 19, 2013 21:48:57 GMT -5
Sounds like we should trade some mlb ready pitching for some of that Cubby power. Anyone know who is running that franchise? BAEZ PLEASE!
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Post by GyIantosca on Dec 19, 2013 21:56:02 GMT -5
The reason why we should be ranked one over the Twins is simple, some of our prospects have already blossomed on the major league roster . Not just a regular season game but the friggin world series. You ca make an argument we dont win the ALCS without Xander.
All due respect to the Twins but those guys are just talented kids who have mastered the minor leagues. They passed the first part let's see what they have next.
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Post by c00lryan on Dec 19, 2013 22:11:10 GMT -5
Haven't had a chance to listen to the podcast...thanks to those who are posting info on what was covered. Any opinion on Denney? I believe I remember Chris (?) saying that he was considered outside of the top 30 (but that may have been from a different source)... Just curious on how others' view may differ from the views on SP.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 19, 2013 22:20:27 GMT -5
Ah.
Well using BA's list (from the Handbook, and thus, for example, 2013 is for the 2012 draft), it's more than that.
2013: 4 (+ 2 IFAs) 2012: 4 2011: 6 (+ 1 IFA) 2010: 5 (+ 2 IFAs) 2009: 7 (+ 1 IFA) 2008: 4 (+ 2 IFAs) 2007: 11 (+ 4 IFAs)
But if I may add two things:
1) this is also largely a function of what else is in the system. Take the 2006 draft - that huge number of draftees that were added was due to the fact that the system was sapped by the graduations of Papelbon and Lester and the loss of Hanley and Anibal in the Beckett trade, the equivalent to if the team this offseason traded Bogaerts and its third-best pitcher and graduated its top two instead of graduating only Iglesias. In that case, you'd certainly see more draft picks.
2) It's a different draft now. The compensation pick system is different, as is the club's ability to throw money around late in the draft. Thus, you get fewer players worth ranking from each draft.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 19, 2013 23:07:33 GMT -5
Sounds like we should trade some mlb ready pitching for some of that Cubby power. Anyone know who is running that franchise? BAEZ PLEASE! Not happening. The Sox are not getting Stanton (doubt anybody is until next season) and they're certainly not getting Baez. Enjoy what the Sox do have.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Dec 20, 2013 5:00:59 GMT -5
Ah. Well using BA's list (from the Handbook, and thus, for example, 2013 is for the 2012 draft), it's more than that. 2013: 4 (+ 2 IFAs) 2012: 4 2011: 6 (+ 1 IFA) 2010: 5 (+ 2 IFAs) 2009: 7 (+ 1 IFA) 2008: 4 (+ 2 IFAs) 2007: 11 (+ 4 IFAs) But if I may add two things: 1) this is also largely a function of what else is in the system. Take the 2006 draft - that huge number of draftees that were added was due to the fact that the system was sapped by the graduations of Papelbon and Lester and the loss of Hanley and Anibal in the Beckett trade, the equivalent to if the team this offseason traded Bogaerts and its third-best pitcher and graduated its top two instead of graduating only Iglesias. In that case, you'd certainly see more draft picks. 2) It's a different draft now. The compensation pick system is different, as is the club's ability to throw money around late in the draft. Thus, you get fewer players worth ranking from each draft. Thanks for the info and sorry for the confusion. This leads to the exact point. I believe the sox have the deepest system currently. Having said that, in the next 24 months I expect at least nine to graduate and be contributing somewhere in the majors. It looks like we will have a couple extra picks coming up in what seems like a deep draft combined with last years players who we really don't know much about. Was the lack of additions this year a function of the quality within the system or a comment on the talent added?
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Post by futurefenwaystars on Dec 20, 2013 8:23:12 GMT -5
I understand that a lot of the lack of enthusiasm for Jon Denney can be attributed to his lackluster 26 game debut in the GCL, but I wonder how much his make-up and immaturity might also contribute to his middling prospect status and his precipitous drop in the draft.
I've followed him on twitter since he was drafted by the Red Sox and a lot of his tweets are along the lines of "woe is me" teenage drama. I'm curious how much of that is him not recognizing that he is now a public figure or if he just isn't ready for the pressure and expectations of being a professional athlete. Maybe I'm making more out of this small glimpse of Denney, but I think that he may have benefited from the maturing experience of being a student athlete in college and not being immediately thrown into the reality of the professional sports world.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 20, 2013 8:24:19 GMT -5
Both probably, but you can't just look at the draft and ignore a guy like Devers.
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larrycook
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Post by larrycook on Dec 20, 2013 8:51:08 GMT -5
Considering in the last several drafts, we have had 1 year with a top 20 pick and the Twins have had a bunch, I think Cherrington/Theo and staff have done a great job.
Snatching up prospects at the end of the first round that slipped for whatever reason (Renauldo - inconsistent mechanics, Bradley - broken wrist, Marreno - sophomore year with the bat was a fluke) appears to be the Sox MO, They folow that up with going after hard to sign high schoolers in the later part of the draft.
The Sox front office and scouting staff deserve a lot of accolades for the current condition of the system. St. Louis is still the gold standard, but the Sox are gaining on them.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 20, 2013 9:15:03 GMT -5
Sox have had 3 top 20 picks in the last 4 years. Including the number 7 pick.
2013 - Ball (7) 2011 - Barnes (19) 2010- Vitek. (20)
But yes, the twins have consistently drafted a lot higher. So has the majority of the league.
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Post by futurefenwaystars on Dec 20, 2013 9:25:22 GMT -5
I have been very disappointed in the last few Red Sox drafts. I understand that the new CBA draft rules and spending limits have prevented the Red Sox from doing what they did in 2010 (Brentz, Ranaudo, Workman, Coyle, Cecchini, Ramos, Price, Couch) and 2011 (Barnes, Swihart, Owens, Bradley, Jerez, Betts, Kukuk) without suffering the consequences of paying a luxury tax and losing picks, but some team is eventually going to choose the buck the system and I hope that the Red Sox are the first to do so.
If the Red Sox chose to ignore the draft rules in 2012, they still could have signed Marrero, Johnson, Light, Callahan, and Buttrey, and then they could have scooped-up all of the late-round players with first-round talent like Alex Bregman (2013 College Baseball Freshman of the Year and likely Top 10 pick in 2015) and Carson Fulmer and Xavier Turner. Their first-round pick in 2013 would have been protected anyways, so they still would have gotten Trey Ball plus they could have ignored the rules again and signed Ryan Boldt and Jordan Sheffield (and maybe thrown some money at Chris Okey, Jeremy Martinez, or Keegan Thompson with later picks) and lose some early picks in 2014. The net result is that you would end up with more top-tier talent.
The Red Sox minor league depth right now is largely due to what they did in 2010 and 2011. If they want to maintain this position of prospect strength, they need to be willing to pay the luxury tax and surrender some early picks in order to really cash-in on hard to sign prospects.
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 20, 2013 9:31:38 GMT -5
Drafting high is only part of the equation: The other part is budget. Up to 2011, the Sox have been able to spend without limit on the "tough signs" like Cecchini, Will Middlebrooks, Bard, Swihart, Ranaudo. On an "even" field since 2012/2013 the drafting is less spectacular.
Of course, as the Yankees show, just having money is not the end all, even under the old system.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 20, 2013 9:59:17 GMT -5
I understand that a lot of the lack of enthusiasm for Jon Denney can be attributed to his lackluster 26 game debut in the GCL, but I wonder how much his make-up and immaturity might also contribute to his middling prospect status and his precipitous drop in the draft. I've followed him on twitter since he was drafted by the Red Sox and a lot of his tweets are along the lines of "woe is me" teenage drama. I'm curious how much of that is him not recognizing that he is now a public figure or if he just isn't ready for the pressure and expectations of being a professional athlete. Maybe I'm making more out of this small glimpse of Denney, but I think that he may have benefited from the maturing experience of being a student athlete in college and not being immediately thrown into the reality of the professional sports world. So, he's acting like a high school kid. I'm not worried about that at all. Call me when he's arrested for possession of cocaine (Jon Egan), gets punched out by at least two teammates (Jason Place) or has other, far worse maturity issues (there's at least one college draftee, still in the system, who had major issues at first that I believe have been dealt with).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 20, 2013 10:04:54 GMT -5
I have been very disappointed in the last few Red Sox drafts. I understand that the new CBA draft rules and spending limits have prevented the Red Sox from doing what they did in 2010 (Brentz, Ranaudo, Workman, Coyle, Cecchini, Ramos, Price, Couch) and 2011 (Barnes, Swihart, Owens, Bradley, Jerez, Betts, Kukuk) without suffering the consequences of paying a luxury tax and losing picks, but some team is eventually going to choose the buck the system and I hope that the Red Sox are the first to do so. If the Red Sox chose to ignore the draft rules in 2012, they still could have signed Marrero, Johnson, Light, Callahan, and Buttrey, and then they could have scooped-up all of the late-round players with first-round talent like Alex Bregman (2013 College Baseball Freshman of the Year and likely Top 10 pick in 2015) and Carson Fulmer and Xavier Turner. Their first-round pick in 2013 would have been protected anyways, so they still would have gotten Trey Ball plus they could have ignored the rules again and signed Ryan Boldt and Jordan Sheffield (and maybe thrown some money at Chris Okey, Jeremy Martinez, or Keegan Thompson with later picks) and lose some early picks in 2014. The net result is that you would end up with more top-tier talent. The Red Sox minor league depth right now is largely due to what they did in 2010 and 2011. If they want to maintain this position of prospect strength, they need to be willing to pay the luxury tax and surrender some early picks in order to really cash-in on hard to sign prospects. There is no indication that Bregman or Boldt would have signed for any (reasonable) amount of money. It just happens. Look at before the new rules, when Meyer turned down $2M. It's telling that no team has exceeded the 105% cap. It's essentially a hard cap. It's not worth exceeding it and losing picks for one guy. Look at Senquez Golson, who the Sox offered 7 figures but didn't even get to his sophomore year at Ole Miss before quitting baseball to focus on football.
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Post by joshv02 on Dec 20, 2013 10:15:41 GMT -5
gets punched out by at least two teammates (Jason Place) or has other The first one was publicized recently; who was the second teammate?
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Post by futurefenwaystars on Dec 20, 2013 10:15:49 GMT -5
I understand that a lot of the lack of enthusiasm for Jon Denney can be attributed to his lackluster 26 game debut in the GCL, but I wonder how much his make-up and immaturity might also contribute to his middling prospect status and his precipitous drop in the draft. I've followed him on twitter since he was drafted by the Red Sox and a lot of his tweets are along the lines of "woe is me" teenage drama. I'm curious how much of that is him not recognizing that he is now a public figure or if he just isn't ready for the pressure and expectations of being a professional athlete. Maybe I'm making more out of this small glimpse of Denney, but I think that he may have benefited from the maturing experience of being a student athlete in college and not being immediately thrown into the reality of the professional sports world. So, he's acting like a high school kid. I'm not worried about that at all. Call me when he's arrested for possession of cocaine (Jon Egan), gets punched out by at least two teammates (Jason Place) or has other, far worse maturity issues (there's at least one college draftee, still in the system, who had major issues at first that I believe have been dealt with). I agree that it doesn't mean that we should write-off Jon Denney, I'm just curious if it helps to explain why he slipped in the draft and isn't quite ready for prime-(Lowell)-time.
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Post by GyIantosca on Dec 20, 2013 11:07:21 GMT -5
I believe in Denney he is in the perfect system and I think Kukuk is gonna harness his control and gonna be a find. I love how we are stacking the lefties. For example the St Louis was marginalized against lefties (Lester, Felix). Lester was a beast .
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 20, 2013 11:26:42 GMT -5
I understand that a lot of the lack of enthusiasm for Jon Denney can be attributed to his lackluster 26 game debut in the GCL, but I wonder how much his make-up and immaturity might also contribute to his middling prospect status and his precipitous drop in the draft. I've followed him on twitter since he was drafted by the Red Sox and a lot of his tweets are along the lines of "woe is me" teenage drama. I'm curious how much of that is him not recognizing that he is now a public figure or if he just isn't ready for the pressure and expectations of being a professional athlete. Maybe I'm making more out of this small glimpse of Denney, but I think that he may have benefited from the maturing experience of being a student athlete in college and not being immediately thrown into the reality of the professional sports world. So, he's acting like a high school kid. I'm not worried about that at all. Call me when he's arrested for possession of cocaine (Jon Egan), gets punched out by at least two teammates (Jason Place) or has other, far worse maturity issues (there's at least one college draftee, still in the system, who had major issues at first that I believe have been dealt with). Agree. I have former students I've taught in undergrad or grad school who on facebook are very silly (including woe-is-me mid-20s drama) but in real life are totally serious about the twelve-hour days of hard work needed to succeed either in grad school or as assistant professors.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 20, 2013 11:26:53 GMT -5
So at some point and you'd think it would start next year (after 3 years of the new system) drafts should start getting a lot deeper with singable college talent. If the tough signs don't sign out of high school it means 1 of 2 things. They go to college or stop playing baseball. Since they are draft eligible after 3 years the 4th draft after implementation should see the results of more college talent. At some point these players have to sign or not play baseball so if you believe in the Red Sox ability to better identify talent then other teams then this should equally play into their favor while spending less.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 20, 2013 11:34:46 GMT -5
By the way, I'm lazy and won't post a link, but the new podcast with Alex is up on the news page.
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Post by raftsox on Dec 20, 2013 12:28:04 GMT -5
So, he's acting like a high school kid. I'm not worried about that at all. Call me when he's arrested for possession of cocaine (Jon Egan), gets punched out by at least two teammates (Jason Place) or has other, far worse maturity issues (there's at least one college draftee, still in the system, who had major issues at first that I believe have been dealt with). Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Egan get caught with coke on money in his wallet? So, trace amounts rather than actual weight.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 20, 2013 12:30:11 GMT -5
So, he's acting like a high school kid. I'm not worried about that at all. Call me when he's arrested for possession of cocaine (Jon Egan), gets punched out by at least two teammates (Jason Place) or has other, far worse maturity issues (there's at least one college draftee, still in the system, who had major issues at first that I believe have been dealt with). Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Egan get caught with coke on money in his wallet? So, trace amounts rather than actual weight. Wow, right. Important distinction that I'd forgotten and glossed over. I believe that it was a DUI and there were traces in his wallet. Thank you.
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Post by raftsox on Dec 20, 2013 12:32:04 GMT -5
If the Red Sox chose to ignore the draft rules in 2012, they still could have signed Marrero, Johnson, Light, Callahan, and Buttrey, and then they could have scooped-up all of the late-round players with first-round talent like Alex Bregman (2013 College Baseball Freshman of the Year and likely Top 10 pick in 2015) and Carson Fulmer and Xavier Turner. Their first-round pick in 2013 would have been protected anyways, so they still would have gotten Trey Ball plus they could have ignored the rules again and signed Ryan Boldt and Jordan Sheffield (and maybe thrown some money at Chris Okey, Jeremy Martinez, or Keegan Thompson with later picks) and lose some early picks in 2014. The net result is that you would end up with more top-tier talent. I'm pretty sure they would have lost the #7 pick if they had gone over the draft cap. It's protected from losing it by signing a QOFA.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 20, 2013 13:19:51 GMT -5
I've got the podcast on as I work, and it's very good. They kickstarted Speier and he's giving the details of all the "sausage making" at BA. Great stuff.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 20, 2013 13:28:37 GMT -5
I have been very disappointed in the last few Red Sox drafts. I understand that the new CBA draft rules and spending limits have prevented the Red Sox from doing what they did in 2010 (Brentz, Ranaudo, Workman, Coyle, Cecchini, Ramos, Price, Couch) and 2011 (Barnes, Swihart, Owens, Bradley, Jerez, Betts, Kukuk) without suffering the consequences of paying a luxury tax and losing picks, but some team is eventually going to choose the buck the system and I hope that the Red Sox are the first to do so. If the Red Sox chose to ignore the draft rules in 2012, they still could have signed Marrero, Johnson, Light, Callahan, and Buttrey, and then they could have scooped-up all of the late-round players with first-round talent like Alex Bregman (2013 College Baseball Freshman of the Year and likely Top 10 pick in 2015) and Carson Fulmer and Xavier Turner. Their first-round pick in 2013 would have been protected anyways, so they still would have gotten Trey Ball plus they could have ignored the rules again and signed Ryan Boldt and Jordan Sheffield (and maybe thrown some money at Chris Okey, Jeremy Martinez, or Keegan Thompson with later picks) and lose some early picks in 2014. The net result is that you would end up with more top-tier talent. The Red Sox minor league depth right now is largely due to what they did in 2010 and 2011. If they want to maintain this position of prospect strength, they need to be willing to pay the luxury tax and surrender some early picks in order to really cash-in on hard to sign prospects. The new draft rules were put in place to strongly disincentivize blowing away the cap like you are suggesting, which is why nobody has done that yet. If there's a once in a lifetime talent (Bryce Harper) maybe you make that leap, but for high-risk/high-reward high school players projected as late first/second rounders? Nah. What if Bregman or Boldt turn out to be busts? It doesn't make sense to go that hyper-aggressive after one guy. I'd actually argue that the Red Sox wasted too many picks in the first 10 rounds in the 2012 draft to make sure they could sign Buttrey, who didn't exactly blow the NY-Penn League away this year. The returns on the 2013 draft are mixed, but I'm happy with it personally. I really like Ball, Stankiewicz and Littrell, and Denney was absolutely worth jumping on in round three. Plus, their international scouting has taken a big step forward since Romero took over. Margot could easily be a Top 100 guy at this time next year, and I'm excited to see the development of Rijo, Lin, Devers, Acosta, Luis Almonte, and Dedgar Jimenez. The system is in good shape even with the coming 2014 graduations.
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