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Post by stevedillard on Jul 4, 2014 11:31:16 GMT -5
That works pretty good when being selective with the names, only left out was Hanley Ramirez, Junichi Tazawa, Anibal Sanchez. Bogaerts. Got to name them all, even when it hurts your argument ya know. Thank you for cementing my argument. Hanley ($20k) Xander ($480k and not in the top 30 list) Anibal (no info but not a highly touted guy) are exactly the counter points to "going big for the top 30 ranked kids"
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Post by ramireja on Jul 4, 2014 11:35:42 GMT -5
The Red Sox DID pull a Yankees, they just didn't spend as much. How is that so hard to see? They blew past the limit and will incur the same penalty. In the end the Yankees will have spent something like $20MM compared to our 6 or 7. The Yankees got the 1st and 2nd most highly regarded international prospects, along with some other top 10 guys. This wasn't just spending for spending's sake, this is coveted talent. If the Red Sox had spent as much I am sure you would have faith that they made a wise decision, but because the Yankees did it, well it must be foolhardy. If even one of the guys the Yankees signed contributes to the club it will be worth the $20MM since pre-arb players are indentured servants. You're misreading my point. Even if you're no longer capped, you should still only sign those players who you think are worth the money. It is fair to criticize the front office for not planning ahead and realizing that once they were going to blow past the cap, they needed to double-down and sign every IFA who was going to be worth his bonus. But now that we're already in this situation where most of the top guys are already signed, it makes no sense to keep spending on guys who aren't worth it. Two points 1) Yes it is fair to criticize the front office for not negotiating more tops signs given the penalty situation. If you're going to incur maximum penalties, it doesn't make sense IMO to only do so for 2 top signs. I mean, make no mistake, I'm excited about Espinoza and Acosta, but I'd prefer a strategy implemented by the Yankees in which if you're going to incur max penalty, then you might as well collect as many lottery tickets as possible. These are the only >300k IFA signees we will see for 3 years, so to only walk away with 2 in 3 years is a bit underwhelming and perhaps a reflection of suspect planning. 2) We shouldn't necessarily spend premium dollar on guys who aren't worth it, but at the same time, if there is a time to slightly overpay for the best of the rest, then the time is now. We just don't even have that option for the next two years, so if there are guys valued in the 300k-500k range, I'm not opposed to sweetening the pot a bit to bolster this year's class. All of this said, the Yanks scored 8 or so highly touted position players, and we arguably sign the two very best pitching prospects. It may be the case that we walk away with the best player(s) long-term, but when it comes to IFA, I'm all about buying as many lottery tickets as possible. I hope they have another >300k signing or two left.
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Post by jmei on Jul 4, 2014 12:07:47 GMT -5
You're misreading my point. Even if you're no longer capped, you should still only sign those players who you think are worth the money. It is fair to criticize the front office for not planning ahead and realizing that once they were going to blow past the cap, they needed to double-down and sign every IFA who was going to be worth his bonus. But now that we're already in this situation where most of the top guys are already signed, it makes no sense to keep spending on guys who aren't worth it. I wouldn't say I am criticizing the Red Sox for not thinking ahead, as much as I am curious why they didn't. If you are going to blow up the international signing, you do it the way the Yankees did. That doesn't mean the Red Sox should be throwing money at the left overs right now, although you and others seemed to indicate (in a rather contradictory way) that maybe they are saving money for just that purpose. Even with a high fail rate, simply by nabbing half of the top 10 guys gives you pretty good odds to get something of value. I can't think of any other way to spend $20MM with that much potential upside. I'm more interested to know why the Red Sox would blow past the limit, incur penalties, and not get at least 3 or 4 top 10 guys in the process. Kiley McDaniel was on the Effectively Wild podcast and mentioned that he heard that other teams (Red Sox, Rays, Brewers) weren't going to go over the cap until reports emerged last August that the Yankees weren't just going to go over, but they were going to blow it out if the water. Remember, this is the first time that any team has spent double or triple or quadruple their pool amount. Even when the Rangers went over-cap a few years ago, they still only spent something like 50% over the cap. Whether because of a lack of imagination, an inability to find enough deserving prospects, or fear of the Commissioner's Office, it had just not been done before. But McDaniel says that it was only after the Yankees decided to go over a year in advance that these other teams decided to go over as well, but by that point it was too late to grab many more big-money guys. My own speculation is that the late decision to go over was at least in part out of fear that the Yankees were going to poach their guys and out of a desire to keep the pipeline flowing.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jul 4, 2014 12:42:30 GMT -5
NP.. My feelings were always of a preference to spend more on the Rule 4 draft over the IFA market.. Obviously because those kids have the track record, not to mention age of being scouted and far more known than do *most* IFA's.. Not that am averse to signing Japanese Amateur FA, nor Korean ones when they are fortunate enough to find them. Most of them have more extensive scouting than any Carribean amateurs, which should give a better idea of what to go on. I'd like for the Sox to have 1-2 full time scouts in the asian market is my 2c, especially with a WW draft probably becoming a reality within the next 2-3y. It's the area probably less focused on by some teams than closer to home.
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Post by dominicansoxfan on Jul 4, 2014 12:59:51 GMT -5
Most of the signings of both the high priced and reasonably priced prospects that you guys are talking about occurred prior to the formation of either the IPL or DPL. Now these players are scouted against like talent and competition which will likely and already has improved the results. Just like you have low draft picks make it, you will still have lower dollar figure guys make it but not like previously. (Margot, Devers, Rijo). In 2011, I believe you started seeing the difference. The International prospect lists started to at least resemble one another.
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Post by suttree on Jul 4, 2014 17:16:40 GMT -5
Being motivated by fear to throw away two years of cap space is pretty much getting outfoxed.
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Post by jmei on Jul 4, 2014 17:24:00 GMT -5
Being motivated by fear to throw away two years of cap space is pretty much getting outfoxed. Not if you think your guys are good enough to make it worth it (and consensus is that the Red Sox got the two best pitchers available) or that not getting to sign big-money guys isn't that big of a penalty or that they're going to put in an international draft and you won't get to draft the big-money guys in the future anyways.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jul 4, 2014 17:46:05 GMT -5
Being motivated by fear to throw away two years of cap space is pretty much getting outfoxed. Not if you think your guys are good enough to make it worth it (and consensus is that the Red Sox got the two best pitchers available) or that not getting to sign big-money guys isn't that big of a penalty or that they're going to put in an international draft and you won't get to draft the big-money guys in the future anyways. Unless you have the season the Sox are having right now...
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Post by theaveragefan88 on Jul 4, 2014 17:48:01 GMT -5
These kids are so young and it is such a crapshoot anyway, I have no problem with the Sox being aggressive with a couple top pitchers, but not going overboard with absurd spending.
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Post by mjay24 on Jul 4, 2014 20:53:21 GMT -5
I just really hope these two pitchers pan out because I could have been happy with just signing one of them and then be able to spend our cap pool for next year, kind of what they did last year with one high profile name like devers and some other low profile names. Who knows what we could be passing up in the next two years, hopfully the sox know something I don't because I don't like their strategy right now, especially with their record now and their potential bonus pool for next year considering there is not an international draft.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 4, 2014 20:58:29 GMT -5
I just really hope these two pitchers pan out because I could have been happy with just signing one of them and then be able to spend our cap pool for next year, kind of what they did last year with one high profile name like devers and some other low profile names. Who knows what we could be passing up in the next two years, hopfully the sox know something I don't because I don't like their strategy right now, especially with their record now and their potential bonus pool for next year considering there is not an international draft. A prospect in hand is worth two in the bush. You have the chance to sign the top two int'l pitchers, you do it every day - if you believe in the talent.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 4, 2014 21:30:17 GMT -5
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 5, 2014 9:41:16 GMT -5
I just really hope these two pitchers pan out because I could have been happy with just signing one of them and then be able to spend our cap pool for next year, kind of what they did last year with one high profile name like devers and some other low profile names. Who knows what we could be passing up in the next two years, hopfully the sox know something I don't because I don't like their strategy right now, especially with their record now and their potential bonus pool for next year considering there is not an international draft. A prospect in hand is worth two in the bush. You have the chance to sign the top two int'l pitchers, you do it every day - if you believe in the talent.This is key. We don't know if the Yankees conceived this strategy several years ago, increased their international scouting correspondingly, and have a deep sense of the quality and hence a true commitment to all of these guys, or whether this was a hastily conceived plan that involves signing some (or even many) guys that they have less of a relationship with, and hence less knowledge about, than is typical for big-bucks international signings. It's easy to get the impression that we've been as close and connected to both Espinoza and Acosta as we were to Devers, and that all the Yankees did was make it clear that we should sign both rather than choose between them.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jul 5, 2014 10:01:52 GMT -5
There are so many dimensions to this decision. This is one time I would really love to be a fly on the wall of the front office to see what their thought process is. A few scattered thoughts I have:
- Do they know something about an international draft being implemented soon and how does this affect their decision? - Was this reactionary to what the Yankees are doing? If so, why would this be the best way to combat that? - Wouldn't it make more sense to go over in a year where the big money teams are restricted? - The Red Sox must be quite high on the two top guys they signed. The cost is so significant that they must think very highly of these two.
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Post by stevedillard on Jul 5, 2014 10:08:07 GMT -5
I guess the question is simplified as follows: If you had $10,000 and went to a class of 5th grade boys, how would you allocate the $10,000? Would you eliminate the complete klutzes and give each remaining boy $1,000 or would you pick the best athlete and give him the whole $10,000?
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 5, 2014 11:31:53 GMT -5
How many people here really think that if they won the lottery, they'd pay $1000 for someone to go get them a soda?
You just don't throw money away unless you're an idiot.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Jul 5, 2014 11:56:25 GMT -5
I am curious about the 2015 draft. Lets say we have the worst record in baseball this year. We'll have over 5M to spend on the 2015 draft. That's a lot of money to spend on guys for 250k-300k.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 5, 2014 12:07:26 GMT -5
I am curious about the 2015 draft. Lets say we have the worst record in baseball this year. We'll have over 5M to spend on the 2015 draft. That's a lot of money to spend on guys for 250k-300k. Under that scenario, I'd guess that there would be a cap room sweetner in every deal the Sox made.
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Post by azblue on Jul 5, 2014 12:12:32 GMT -5
Al Nipper--What do the penalties connected with next 2 international signing periods have to do with the 2015 first year player draft? Perhaps you were too cryptic for me to get the post above.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Jul 5, 2014 12:33:16 GMT -5
I meant the 2015 international July 2nd signing period. I hadn't had my coffee before posting today.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 7, 2014 16:17:07 GMT -5
Question on these two pitchers for someone who knows more about player development than I. Acosta sits as high as 92 and Espinoza as high as 93. They are both 16, so they can still get taller. But if they are low 90's as a 16 year old does that put them as potential triple digit guys? To advance that question, at what ages do pitchers typically add velocity and at what age would you say their velocity plateaus?
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Post by mjay24 on Jul 7, 2014 20:16:59 GMT -5
Love what the Rays and Brewers did, signing two of the top five prospects and both teams traded for the neccesary cap space needed in order to not go over the cap. Hated the Red Sox international strategy this year before those two teams did what the Red Sox should have done which was sign one of the pitchers and grab another two top international guys in the next two years... Smh BC
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Post by mjammz on Jul 7, 2014 20:29:23 GMT -5
Love what the Rays and Brewers did, signing two of the top five prospects and both teams traded for the neccesary cap space needed in order to not go over the cap. Hated the Red Sox international strategy this year before those two teams did what the Red Sox should have done which was sign one of the pitchers and grab another two top international guys in the next two years... Smh BC Signing the consensus top two international pitchers and you hate that? My god.
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Post by bentossaurus on Jul 7, 2014 20:31:12 GMT -5
Both the Rays and Brewers had more money to play with (and the possibility of trading for more) than the Red Sox ever had.
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Post by joshv02 on Jul 7, 2014 20:37:27 GMT -5
Question: Assume that there is an international draft ext year. The CBA says that the following is the penalty for teams like the Red Sox:
d. 15% or greater in excess of Pool—100% tax on all of the Pool overage and loss of loss of 1st round picks in next two succeeding international drafts.
Is that the first round pick, or the first round bonus slot AND first round pick?
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