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Jan 2014-June 2015 International Signings
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Post by jmei on May 6, 2014 11:31:41 GMT -5
I can't decide how excited I should be about the Red Sox likely spending well above their bonus pool this year.
On one hand, two of the most aggressive teams in international free agency-- the Rangers and the Cubs-- blew past their limit last year and can't sign anyone for more than $300K this year, so maybe there's less competition for certain high-bonus guys. On the other hand, the Badler article discusses a number of other teams (the Yankees, Rays, and Brewers in particular) who also plan to blow past their bonus pools this year and notes that overall international spending is likely to increase this year, suggesting an inflationary market where prices might be getting too high.
Given Eddie Romero's results so far, I'm choosing to be optimistic. Espinoza in particular looks surprisingly polished, especially if he was really just 15 when those videos were shot.
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Post by grandsalami on May 6, 2014 11:34:59 GMT -5
I can't decide how excited I should be about the Red Sox likely spending well above their bonus pool this year. On one hand, two of the most aggressive teams in international free agency-- the Rangers and the Cubs-- blew past their limit last year and can't sign anyone for more than $300K this year, so maybe there's less competition for certain high-bonus guys. On the other hand, the Badler article discusses a number of other teams (the Yankees, Rays, and Brewers in particular) who also plan to blow past their bonus pools this year and notes that overall international spending is likely to increase this year, suggesting an inflationary market where prices might be getting too high. Given Eddie Romero's results so far, I'm choosing to be optimistic. Espinoza in particular looks surprisingly polished, especially if he was really just 15 when those videos were shot. Also might be a sign that an international draft is coming in the next two years right? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Post by pedroelgrande on May 6, 2014 12:22:07 GMT -5
I like it. As I said before if you have conviction on a player you better get him now because in a few years it's likely that you won't be able to over extend your self on the guys you want due to either a draft or MLB imposing a hard cap or so thing along the lines.
And as noted the International staff is doing a great job so it would be a good idea to back them up while they are on a hot streak.
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Post by sdiaz1 on May 6, 2014 12:53:04 GMT -5
I am really excited about the prospect of attaining Espinoza, he is the type of high ceiling amateur prospect that competitive teams only have rare opportunities to acquire. He alone would likely put us at our max for the season, and with other very intriguing prospects out there you have to at least consider rolling the dice.
Also it is not like the punishment is that bad. Only having a $300,000 cap per player certainly excludes a team from bidding on the highest prized talents, but in the IFA market there are always players signed at that range that go on and become legitimate milb prospects. So yeah lets go crazy this year, and next summer we can be creative and sign the most intriguing lottery pick guys for around 250,000.
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Post by greatscottcooper on May 6, 2014 14:25:47 GMT -5
I really do hope the Sox go all out this year. Keep feeding the monster. Penalties? how much did it cost to sign Hanley and Doubront?!?!
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Post by stevedillard on May 6, 2014 14:35:50 GMT -5
I really do hope the Sox go all out this year. Keep feeding the monster. Penalties? how much did it cost to sign Hanley and Doubront?!?! I've gone full circle on big signings when Miguel Cabrera was the poster child. Used to get real excited about "winning" with Engel Beltre and Oscar Tejada and before that Liis Soto for a half million. Have now seen too many Michael Ynoa, Jesus Montero, Carlos Villanueva go through while mid-range kids like Xander hit. I guess throwing a million around to get you an Espinosa and Devers is nice, but it's a long road to AA and the bonuses for the Sox and even other teams has not correlated strongly with making that step.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on May 6, 2014 14:54:17 GMT -5
I am pleasantly surprised to hear that the Red Sox plan to blow through their international bonus allocation for the upcoming international signing period. Might as well do it now as it appears that there are plans in the works for an international draft in the next few years. The Rangers have done this for the last couple of years which has helped to them to re-stock their farm system.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 6, 2014 15:21:30 GMT -5
I believe it has more to do with how much it costs to sign the players they will be signing than anything. I recall Eddie Romero saying on Speier's podcast that they'd be willing to go over the limit, but it'd have to be for players they thought were worth it.
This probably says more about Espinoza, Acosta, and whoever else they sign than a general decision to make this the year they go over the limit.
Remember, it's not like the teams don't talk to players until July 2. These guys have potentially come to terms already.
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Post by burythehammer on May 6, 2014 15:47:32 GMT -5
I really do hope the Sox go all out this year. Keep feeding the monster. Penalties? how much did it cost to sign Hanley and Doubront?!?! I've gone full circle on big signings when Miguel Cabrera was the poster child. Used to get real excited about "winning" with Engel Beltre and Oscar Tejada and before that Liis Soto for a half million. Have now seen too many Michael Ynoa, Jesus Montero, Carlos Villanueva go through while mid-range kids like Xander hit. I guess throwing a million around to get you an Espinosa and Devers is nice, but it's a long road to AA and the bonuses for the Sox and even other teams has not correlated strongly with making that step. If Xander was Dominican he would've gotten a 7 figure bonus, easily, so that's not a good example. It's easy to cherry pick guys like Ynoa but there are plenty of examples on both sides.
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Post by jmei on May 6, 2014 18:11:18 GMT -5
From this older article, looks like Espinoza is supposed to get close to $2m and has long been linked to the Red Sox. He's almost certainly as good as signed. Since the Red Sox only have a $1.88m bonus pool, Espinoza alone will ensure that they go above the limit, so it would make sense to just go ahead and sign some other guys to go along with it.
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Post by sdiaz1 on May 7, 2014 1:30:00 GMT -5
I know that we all like to poke fun at Jesus Montero, but he was the centerpiece of a deal that brought his initial team a 21 year old starter coming off a 3.2 WAR season where he posted a 3.52 XFIP in 170 IP. If we can do that with any of the guys we sign or draft this year, I will be rather happy.
Obviously, injuries likely robbed the Yankees of the young cost controlled front end of the rotation starter that they thought they had acquired, but at that time it looked like that big bonus they gave to Montero was definitely worth it.
EDIT: I would also like to add, that I think we would all be content having a 24yr old first base prospect in AAA posting a WRC+ of 125. Yes, he is a bad bodied first basemen, who has defensive limitations and yes it is the PCL, but to write him off entirely at this point would be foolish
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Post by jimed14 on May 7, 2014 8:35:08 GMT -5
I know that we all like to poke fun at Jesus Montero, but he was the centerpiece of a deal that brought his initial team a 21 year old starter coming off a 3.2 WAR season where he posted a 3.52 XFIP in 170 IP. If we can do that with any of the guys we sign or draft this year, I will be rather happy. Obviously, injuries likely robbed the Yankees of the young cost controlled front end of the rotation starter that they thought they had acquired, but at that time it looked like that big bonus they gave to Montero was definitely worth it. EDIT: I would also like to add, that I think we would all be content having a 24yr old first base prospect in AAA posting a WRC+ of 125. Yes, he is a bad bodied first basemen, who has defensive limitations and yes it is the PCL, but to write him off entirely at this point would be foolish I thought that trade was pretty horrible for Seattle at the time. I don't know if we can count on or hope for ripping teams off like that.
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Post by jimed14 on May 7, 2014 8:39:17 GMT -5
Here is video of Acosta: And here is video of Espinoza: The Espinoza videos (there are more just go into the profile) appears to be from last year as you can hear the trainers gushing saying "we need to get this guy on a program" that was referenced in the Venezuelan report. I watched all of the Espinoza videos. I guess I'm not very familiar with what 15 year olds should be doing. He was hitting 85 tops. Is it normal to go from 85-94 in a year? I will say that his curve looked awesome for a 15 year old. But that's a little concerning with his elbow. You don't want that stress on a growing arm.
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Post by pedroelgrande on May 7, 2014 9:38:40 GMT -5
Is it normal? No. Does it happen? Yes. Just an example Yordano Ventura was mid 80s before he signed now he is sitting 100.
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Post by oilcansman on May 7, 2014 10:33:11 GMT -5
When I read about a 15 or 16 year old with a wicked 12 to 6 curve I start thinking about Tommy John surgery. TJ recently talked about the rash of surgeries to young pitchers for UCL replacement (TJ surgery). He thought that it was caused by kids throwing too much year round before their professional career began. (AAU, All star games, etc...) The theory is that putting too much pressure on a developing arm is problematic and that pitchers have only so many bullets in the arm and too many are being wasted playing Perfect Game All Star Showcase type events in the summertime. These events didn't exist 40 years ago.
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Post by pedroelgrande on May 7, 2014 13:12:47 GMT -5
Chris (RI): Thanks for the Chat, Ben. As you reported yesterday the Red Sox (along with other teams) will exceed their bonus allotment and mentioned the two pitchers, do you think they could still go for another "big" bonus player or this are the main guys the rest will be medium range kind of guys? Thanks and keep doing a great job with your International coverage.
Ben Badler: If they're planning to go over at this point, yes, I think they'll try to get more than just a couple of top-level guys. Although I think it's important to mention that, just given the nature of international scouting, a player they might see as one of the premium guys might be someone they sign for $400,000 or so, which is still a relatively high bonus, but not top of the market dollars. Given where their bonus pool is this year and where I'm sure they project it to be next year, breaking the pool this year is a strategy that makes sense.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 8, 2014 2:54:55 GMT -5
If they are going pitching heavy in IFA maybe they go hitter heavy in the draft. I doubt if that will have a draft effect. I think they will just go for the best player available who is 5' 9".
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Post by borisman on May 8, 2014 5:53:05 GMT -5
If they are going pitching heavy in IFA maybe they go hitter heavy in the draft. I doubt if that will have a draft effect. I think they will just go for the best player available who is 5' 9". Besides, this draft isn't exactly "hitter heavy". BPA all the way! If it's a pitcher with the first two picks, so be it. The Sox do like to approach the draft like a devirsified portfolio.
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Post by pedroelgrande on May 8, 2014 9:37:22 GMT -5
What if BPA is a hitter?
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Post by borisman on May 9, 2014 15:53:33 GMT -5
Who ever it is, it is. I think we'll get two good players either way. It's funny tho how BA mocks two bats going to the Sox. Maybe you'll get your wish
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Post by okin15 on May 12, 2014 14:01:38 GMT -5
Ben Badler: Given where their bonus pool is this year and where I'm sure they project it to be next year, breaking the pool this year is a strategy that makes sense. Can someone translate? Other than, the "we really like these guys and think a bird in hand is worth a lot" strategy, I'm not sure I understand why THIS is the year to break the bank. ADD: Penalties for overage: So if you go more than 15% over, you better be getting 3 years worth of value, right?
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Post by sarasoxer on May 12, 2014 17:09:27 GMT -5
If they are going pitching heavy in IFA maybe they go hitter heavy in the draft. I doubt if that will have a draft effect. I think they will just go for the best player available who is 5' 9". ....and 160 lbs. with a thin frame....
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Post by jmei on May 12, 2014 17:09:51 GMT -5
It could also be "their bonus pool is going to be too small to do anything interesting with going forward, so they might as well blow it up now." That rationale makes some sense-- if they're never going to have enough pool money to sign one of the true bonus babies, might as well blow it all in one year and get a few of them in the system and just go cheap in future years. Only other thing I can think of is if they think MLB will implement an international draft in the next couple years, but I think that's unlikely.
I also wouldn't undersell the "they especially like the guys they're going to sign this year" angle. They've basically never spent much on Latin pitchers, with the closest being $800k on Mercedes and mid-six figures on a handful of guys over the years (DeJesus, Diaz, Almonte, Romero, Alcantaras, etc). Now they're going to go a million-plus on two pitchers in the same year? Seems to me like they must really like Espinoza and Acosta.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 13, 2014 4:08:08 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 13, 2014 12:35:31 GMT -5
If you saw my Ynoa post and followed the link earlier, they've just now added a video of him.
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