How many top prospects = lower good prospects?

Further conclusions directly related to the Red Sox

Owens, Ranaudo, Barnes and Webster have a roughly 17% chance of being a success based on today's rankings... so under a 1 in 5 chance.  That means that we are lucky to have one work out of the 4. Workman and Vasquez have never been ranked in the top 100, so they are out of scope.

JBJ 30-35% chance of success,  Cecchini, Betts, Swihart about 20-25% from the articles

Xander is a stout 62.7% chance of success



Sent from my SGH-T999 using proboards

Since 2003 we're 2 for 3 (Hanley, Ellsbury, Lars). I don't think anyone's betting against Xander making it 3 for 4.


We're 0 for 1, Ryan Westmoreland. JBJ is here, too.


We're looking at 4 for 6 (Moss, Lowrie, Reddick, Pedoia, Shoppach missing by 0.06 WAR per year, and Kalish who actually still has a a slim chance). Iglesias seems likely to succeed, and WMB has a solid shot. Swihart's in here, too.

Expected successes = 3 * .6 + 1 * .37 + 6 * .25 = 3.67. We've had 6, just missed 7. You can argue that Westmoreland shouldn't count, in which case expected was 3.37.


We're 1 for 1 (Buchholz).


We're 2 for 2 (Lester, Papelbon). Casey Kelly, Barnes, and Webster are all TBD. We're beating the norm even if all three wash out.


We're 1 for 4 according to his criteria, but one of the failures is Bard (the others are Masterson, Hansen, Bowden). Owens is in progress.

Expected successes = 1 * .4 + 2 * .23 + 4 * .17 = 1.54. We've had 4, plus Bard.

Thanks to the magic of rounding, it's 5 total expected successes, whether or not you count Westmoreland. It's 10 actual (plus Bard and Shoppach), out of 16 or 17 guys.

I wonder how the players level affects the successes and failures. Aball guys should fail more then AA or AAA players, I would think.

I think we should consider the number of mlb players in each WAR bracket for position & pitcher. For 2013, this is:
WAR - position - pitchers
war 4.5+ - 36 - 16
war 3.5+ - 72 - 31
war 2.5+ - 105 - 67
war 1.5+ - 169 - 130
In 2013 there were 36 position players with WAR 4.5 and higher versus 16 pitchers. There were 72 position players WAR 3.5 and higher. (This was easier to list because all I have to do is read down the list by WAR order). This would support the current practice of locking up top pitchers while taking more risks in losing position player to free agency.
So the lower success rate of pitching prospects may not be entirely due to poor forecasting, but rather the difficulty of achieving high WAR on pitching?
Perhaps we should also consider MLB career games + IP in judging prospects?

That's because I don't believe Mariano, as good as he was, actually ever topped 3.3 WAR. Closers are vastly over-rated during the regular season. Of course, the caveat is how tremendously important they are to October success. The Red Sox more than likely don't win the WS without Koji. As long as you're an average closer over the regular season there isn't much of an upgrade to be had by getting an elite arm.

You raise a good point that I was just realizing when I was considering Bard a success. This is especially glaring once we consider that relief pitchers and closers because the best relief pitcher of all time never topped 3.3 WAR after he became the primary closer for the Yankees... so that is the ceiling of any relief pitcher. Gagne had a 3.7 WAR the year he won the Cy Young... Papelbon topped out at 3.4... Wagner 3.6. Mostly these relief pitchers were in the 1's and 2's for very dominant seasons. It would take some work, but I would consider the numbers halved when talking about relief pitchers... 1 WAR is success and 2 WAR is a star season.

Starting pitching... Pedro Martinez had ten years in a row with a WAR over 4, but Sherzer only has two. Verlander has 6, King Felix has 5... Kershaw also 5. It appears as though it is much harder to earn WAR with pitchers and might be throwing off the results and the definition of success. I only saw one instance where there was double digit WAR for any pitcher and it was one season by Pedro Martinez in my life.

The all time leader in pitcher's WAR is Silver King in 1888 when he threw 585.2 innings, 45 wins, 21 losses, 1.64 ERA... the next was 1972 Steve Carlton followed by the Pedro Martinez season I mentioned. These are unattainable WAR numbers that we won't likely see again in our lifetimes. Grand total of 22 total seasons including repeats from pitchers of seasons over 10 WAR. There were 49 total seasons of hitters that had over 10 WAR. The numbers are skewed towards the batters suggesting that WAR is not a good indicator of success with pitchers on an apples to apples comparison to hitters. Granted the first five spots belong to Babe Ruth and six of the top ten.

When I break these numbers down into a smaller time period of 1980-current we get the following:

1380 total seasons with a 4.0 WAR or above for hitters from 1980 till now
www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=1980&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

690 total seasons with a 4.0 WAR or above for pitchers from 1980 till now
www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=1980&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

Is WAR undervaluing pitchers or is it in line with the number of pitchers vs. the number of hitters that play on each time? Good question to debate...

Take Koji out of the equation and replace him with, say, how much do you think the Red Sox would have been impacted by W-L? Same thing if Andrew Bailey and/or Joel Hanrahan didn't get injured. A average to above-average closer doesn't have much deviation from an elite closer during the regular season. Only in October does it truly matter.

The only reason WAR is being analyzed is because the original two articles that I put in the first post that were analyzing if prospects were a success or a bust used WAR as the deciding factor. I think it works except for relief pitchers by the numbers they used.

Good stuff man... makes this a lot easier to single out the Red Sox prospects to see who ranked in the top 100 and how high they ranked at their highest.

Year Rank Player Pos Team W-L ERA BA OBP SLG games played

2013 8 Xander Bogaerts ss Red Sox .250 0.320 0.364 18
2013 31 Jackie Bradley of Red Sox .189 0.280 0.337 37
2013 40 Matt Barnes rhp Red Sox
2013 49 Allen Webster rhp Red Sox 1-2 8.60 8
2013 91 Henry Owens lhp Red Sox

2012 51 Will Middlebrooks 3b Red Sox .254 0.294 0.462 169
2012 58 Xander Bogaerts ss Red Sox .250 0.320 0.364 18
2012 72 Blake Swihart c Red Sox

2011 52 Jose Iglesias ss Red Sox .274 0.325 0.354 144
2011 67 Anthony Ranaudo rhp Red Sox
2011 97 Drake Britton lhp Red Sox 1-1 3.86 18

2010 21 Ryan Westmoreland of Red Sox
2010 24 Casey Kelly rhp Red Sox 2-3 6.21 6
2010 75 Josh Reddick of Red Sox .239 0.302 0.427 413
2010 87 Lars Anderson 1b Red Sox .167 0.268 0.188 30

2009 17 Lars Anderson 1b Red Sox .167 0.268 0.188 30
2009 83 Michael Bowden rhp Red Sox 3-5 4.51 103
2009 98 Daniel Bard rhp Red Sox 10-19 3.67 211

2008 4 Clay Buchholz rhp Red Sox 58-33 3.60 123
2008 13 Jacoby Ellsbury of Red Sox .297 0.350 0.439 715
2008 40 Lars Anderson 1b Red Sox .167 0.268 0.188 30
2008 64 Justin Masterson rhp Red Sox 53-63 4.03 212
2008 73 Jed Lowrie ss Red Sox .264 0.332 0.427 507
2008 94 Michael Bowden rhp Red Sox 3-5 4.51 103
2008 96 Ryan Kalish of Red Sox .243 0.293 0.351 89

2007 1 Daisuke Matsuzaka rhp Red Sox 53-40 4.52 124
2007 33 Jacoby Ellsbury of Red Sox .297 0.350 0.439 715
2007 51 Clay Buchholz rhp Red Sox 58-33 3.60 123
2007 81 Daniel Bard rhp Red Sox 10-19 3.67 211
2007 83 Michael Bowden rhp Red Sox 3-5 4.51 103

2006 22 Jon Lester lhp Red Sox 100-56 3.76 221
2006 37 Jonathan Papelbon rhp Red Sox 33-26 2.41 527
2006 54 Craig Hansen rhp Red Sox 4-9 6.34 95
2006 77 Dustin Pedroia 2b/ss Red Sox .302 0.370 0.454 1016

2005 10 Hanley Ramirez ss Red Sox .302 0.373 0.506 1095
2005 72 Brandon Moss of Red Sox .253 0.323 0.468 478
2005 91 Jonathan Papelbon rhp Red Sox 33-26 2.41 527

2004 39 Hanley Ramirez ss Red Sox .302 0.373 0.506 1095
2004 78 Kelly Shoppach c Red Sox .223 0.312 0.413 572

2003 19 Hanley Ramirez ss Red Sox .302 0.373 0.506 1095

2002 60 Seung Song rhp Red Sox
2002 93 Tony Blanco 3b Red Sox .177 0.215 0.274 56

2001 76 Brad Baker rhp Red Sox
2001 77 Dernell Stenson 1b/of Red Sox .247 0.333 0.420 37
2001 87 Tony Blanco 3b Red Sox .177 0.215 0.274 56

2000 50 Steve Lomasney c Red Sox .000 0.000 0.000 1
2000 66 Dernell Stenson 1b Red Sox .247 0.333 0.420 37
2000 94 Sun-Woo Kim rhp Red Sox 13-13 5.31 118

1999 22 Dernell Stenson of Red Sox .247 0.333 0.420 37
1999 56 John Curtice lhp Red Sox
1999 99 Trot Nixon of Red Sox .274 0.364 0.464 1092

1998 22 Brian Rose rhp Red Sox 15-23 5.86 68
1998 51 Michael Coleman of Red Sox .194 0.203 0.254 22
1998 79 Robinson Checo rhp Red Sox 3-5 7.61 16
1998 88 Chris Reitsma rhp Red Sox 32-46 4.70 338

1997 10 Nomar Garciaparra ss Red Sox .313 0.361 0.521 1434
1997 17 Carl Pavano rhp Red Sox 108-107 4.39 302
1997 44 Brian Rose rhp Red Sox 15-23 5.86 68
1997 46 Chris Reitsma rhp Red Sox 32-46 4.70 338
1997 51 Donnie Sadler 2b Red Sox .202 0.262 0.284 418
1997 60 Jeff Suppan rhp Red Sox 140-146 4.70 448

1996 28 Donnie Sadler ss Red Sox .202 0.262 0.284 418
1996 35 Jeff Suppan rhp Red Sox 140-146 4.70 448
1996 36 Nomar Garciaparra ss Red Sox .313 0.361 0.521 1434
1996 39 Trot Nixon of Red Sox .274 0.364 0.464 1092
1996 45 Andy Yount rhp Red Sox
1996 78 Brian Rose rhp Red Sox 15-23 5.86 68
1996 98 Michael Coleman of Red Sox .194 0.203 0.254 22

1995 22 Nomar Garciaparra ss Red Sox .313 0.361 0.521 1434
1995 36 Frankie Rodriguez rhp Red Sox 29-39 5.54 184
1995 46 Trot Nixon of Red Sox .274 0.364 0.464 1092
1995 50 Jeff Suppan rhp Red Sox 140-146 4.70 448
1995 94 Jose Malave of Red Sox .226 0.248 0.368 45

1994 13 Trot Nixon of Red Sox .274 0.364 0.464 1092
1994 39 Frankie Rodriguez rhp Red Sox 29-39 5.54 184
1994 86 Luis Ortiz 3b Red Sox .228 0.256 0.359 60

1993 25 Frankie Rodriguez rhp Red Sox 29-39 5.54 184
1993 72 Greg Blosser of Red Sox .077 0.200 0.103 22
1993 84 Aaron Sele rhp Red Sox 148-112 4.61 404

1992 9 Frankie Rodriguez rhp/ss Red Sox 29-39 5.54 184
1992 16 Jeff McNeely of Red Sox .297 0.409 0.378 21
1992 71 Aaron Sele rhp Red Sox 148-112 4.61 404
1992 86 Scott Cooper 3b Red Sox .265 0.337 0.386 592

1991 10 Mo Vaughn 1b Red Sox .293 0.383 0.523 1512
1991 20 Jeff McNeely of Red Sox .297 0.409 0.378 21
1991 46 Tim Naehring ss Red Sox .282 0.365 0.420 547
1991 64 Greg Blosser of Red Sox .077 0.200 0.103 22

1990 61 Kevin Morton lhp Red Sox
1990 63 Eric Wedge c Red Sox .233 0.340 0.430 39
1990 68 Scott Cooper 3b Red Sox .265 0.337 0.386 592
1990 76 Mo Vaughn 1b Red Sox .293 0.383 0.523 1512
1990 79 Mickey Pina of Red Sox
1990 83 Phil Plantier of Red Sox .243 0.332 0.439 610

I don't think that anyone can doubt that. Koji this year and Papelbon in past years... what a difference.

Back to the point of the thread though... how can we compare relief pitchers to starters and position players? WAR seems to work for position players to starters pretty well... but the relief guys get misrepresented. It is either they get misrepresented, or we overrate them... but that's a debate for another thread.

For now, I'm curious to see if there are accepted stats beyond WAR that we might use for this exercise of trying to figure out what a prospect is worth.

WAR doesn't correlate with ERA because it's not based on ERA. That simple, really.

Also, just a suggestion for the future, it might be a good idea to say whether you're using bWAR or fWAR, as they're calculated differently.

bWAR = Baseball Reference's version of WAR
fWAR = Fangraphs' version of WAR

They have many differences, the most important of which are outlined here. (In general, if you're new to SABR analysis, I think the Fangraphs library is worth a thorough perusal.)