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Red Sox top 10 prospects by Keith Law
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Post by soxfanatic on Jan 30, 2014 10:27:53 GMT -5
1. Xander Bogaerts, SS 2. Henry Owens, LHP 3. Jackie Bradley Jr., CF 4. Garin Cecchini, 3B 5. Blake Swihart, C 6. Mookie Betts, 2B 7. Matt Barnes, RHP 8. Allen Webster, RHP 9. Anthony Ranaudo, RHP 10. Trey Ball, LHP
Add:
The fallen:
Deven Marrero
The sleeper:
Manuel Margot
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Jan 30, 2014 12:08:58 GMT -5
Highlights ...The Red Sox have drafted exceedingly well the past few years, loading the system with up-the-middle position-player talent, along with a handful of starters boasting mid-rotation upside.
Xander Bogaerts showed flashes in October of why he's a potential monster,...Henry Owens' fastball and breaking ball were both much better in 2013 ... without giving up any of the deception ...
Christian Vazquez, who isn't a great offensive prospect but makes so much contact that he'll likely end up an average to above-average regular overall. Lefty Brian Johnson still could be a No. 4 or 5 starter,... Boston took a few project guys in the 2013 draft after first-rounder Trey Ball, including fallen idol Jon Denney, ... and Teddy Stankiewicz, ... who can hit 94-95 mph with good command... And they signed 16-year-old Dominican third baseman Rafael Devers, a left-handed hitter with big-time power and a very good swing, for $1.5 million in August.
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Post by patrmac04 on Jan 30, 2014 12:22:54 GMT -5
I don't think there are any big surprises here. I never saw Marrero as a top 10 guy and there are a number of sleepers with Margot mentioned most often.
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Post by jmei on Jan 30, 2014 12:42:37 GMT -5
Law really must really be primarily focusing on upside if Vazquez, a player he thinks will "end up an average to above-average regular," can't crack the top 10.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 30, 2014 14:57:28 GMT -5
It seems he's trying to give us list that teams around baseball would value vs his own real perspective, which makes sense. Most GMs would love Vasquez, but considering what he does is more easily replaced then what Ball or Webster could do, they'd much rather gamble on them then be safe with Vasquez. He'd probably put his money on Vasquez, but the upside of the others is too hard to ignore.
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Post by kman22 on Jan 30, 2014 15:09:42 GMT -5
I haven't seen what else KLaw had to say about this list, but Marrero dropping off the list, at least in my opinion, has more to do with other talent climbing, as opposed to Marrero regressing.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jan 30, 2014 15:18:26 GMT -5
I haven't seen what else KLaw had to say about this list, but Marrero dropping off the list, at least in my opinion, has more to do with other talent climbing, as opposed to Marrero regressing. Like Law said: slugging .317 on the year across two levels doesn't help his cause. His hit and power tools may have been questionable to begin with, but at this point he's Jose Iglesias-light. That said, I think he'll be with a Major League team in two years, but I doubt it's with the Red Sox.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jan 30, 2014 16:13:24 GMT -5
I haven't seen what else KLaw had to say about this list, but Marrero dropping off the list, at least in my opinion, has more to do with other talent climbing, as opposed to Marrero regressing. Like Law said: slugging .317 on the year across two levels doesn't help his cause. His hit and power tools may have been questionable to begin with, but at this point he's Jose Iglesias-light. That said, I think he'll be with a Major League team in two years, but I doubt it's with the Red Sox. More interesting is that he'll be on the same team as Betts. If Betts is really that good, the Red Sox would be wise to figure out if he can play SS regularly in the majors. But if he and Marrero are both at AA how does that happen? Do you have both of them alternate between 2B and SS?
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,982
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Post by jimoh on Jan 30, 2014 16:45:23 GMT -5
Deven Marrero hasn't hit very well but has a .345 OBP in his first two years and plays a fine SS. Iglesias' minor league OBP is .314 (though of course he was pushed to higher levels quickly). Marrero's a good prospect
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 30, 2014 16:54:27 GMT -5
Like Law said: slugging .317 on the year across two levels doesn't help his cause. His hit and power tools may have been questionable to begin with, but at this point he's Jose Iglesias-light. That said, I think he'll be with a Major League team in two years, but I doubt it's with the Red Sox. More interesting is that he'll be on the same team as Betts. If Betts is really that good, the Red Sox would be wise to figure out if he can play SS regularly in the majors. But if he and Marrero are both at AA how does that happen? Do you have both of them alternate between 2B and SS? As we discussed with Alex on the Podcast, we're likely looking at a Marrero/Betts/Coyle rotation of some sort at SS/2B/DH there. Wouldn't surprise me to see guys get time at 3B as well, or perhaps Betts in the OF.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 30, 2014 16:57:46 GMT -5
The flip side of that argument is that if the Red Sox don't think Betts can play shortstop, they're wise to shield him and not show other teams that. Having him and Marrero on the same team gives them an obvious and convenient excuse to do that. And with all due respect to Betts, the Red Sox had a chance to give him plenty of reps there in '13 when he played most of his innings with either Jose Vinicio or Nick Natoli at short. That may be a sign that the Sox just wanted to keep him hitting while he was comfortable at second base, but it might also just mean they think he's a second baseman.
To me, alternating doesn't make sense. Marrero's value, and his path to the majors, is as a defensive shortstop. Betts' track is less obvious - I don't necessarily mean that as a negative, just that his career could go in several different directions and still be successful. Giving Betts some reps there once or twice a week when Marrero takes a day off (or is DH) is possible, but I don't think flipping the two between the positions is likely.
EDIT: As Chris pointed out (and I forgot) Coyle is part of this discussion as well.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 30, 2014 17:12:51 GMT -5
I think there is a non-zero chance that Marrero starts in Pawtucket and Betts is the full time shortstop in Portland.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jan 30, 2014 17:19:45 GMT -5
I think there is a non-zero chance that Marrero starts in Pawtucket and Betts is the full time shortstop in Portland. Agree with you here. Defensively, Marrero could probably play in the Majors right now. At some point, you've just got to cut your losses with the bat. There's not much projection left there IMO. He is what he is and if you're fine with that player you just push him futher along the ladder.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jan 30, 2014 17:33:49 GMT -5
The flip side of that argument is that if the Red Sox don't think Betts can play shortstop, they're wise to shield him and not show other teams that. Having him and Marrero on the same team gives them an obvious and convenient excuse to do that. And with all due respect to Betts, the Red Sox had a chance to give him plenty of reps there in '13 when he played most of his innings with either Jose Vinicio or Nick Natoli at short. That may be a sign that the Sox just wanted to keep him hitting while he was comfortable at second base, but it might also just mean they think he's a second baseman. To me, alternating doesn't make sense. Marrero's value, and his path to the majors, is as a defensive shortstop. Betts' track is less obvious - I don't necessarily mean that as a negative, just that his career could go in several different directions and still be successful. Giving Betts some reps there once or twice a week when Marrero takes a day off (or is DH) is possible, but I don't think flipping the two between the positions is likely. EDIT: As Chris pointed out (and I forgot) Coyle is part of this discussion as well. The major difference between now and 2013 is that Betts' bat took a major leap forward last year. They now have an entire spring and the instructional league to work him out at SS. As we saw with Bogarts the Red Sox tend to let a player's play tell them what position he can and can't handle. There is little doubt that Betts is athletic enough to handle SS, and the Red Sox really won't know if he can play that position in the majors unless they give him some reps there. That's why at the very least as Alex pointed out, they are willing to at least give him some time there for starters. In general the priority of the farm system should be geared towards the best prospects. This means that if you have two SSs at the same level the clearly better prospect should be getting the majority of the reps there even if he isn't as good defensively. So if Betts is a potential impact bat, and Marrero is a back of the order guy at best, Betts should play SS until he shows he can't do it, Marrero's development be damned. The plan that Alex laid out in the podcast is of course subject to change. The best argument against this that I can see is that you want to baby Betts a little by not putting him at a more difficult defensive position at the same time he's facing tougher pitching. To fix that they could put Betts at SS in Salem.
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Post by jchang on Jan 30, 2014 17:34:44 GMT -5
Since Coyle and Betts are mentioned, I will speculate on Coyle that might also apply to Betts. Coyle started 2013 with an incredible tear in both BA and XBH. I am thinking that the cumulative effects of hard impacts with the bat puts wear and tear on the smaller bodies. This may not lead to an injury requiring to be placed on the IR list, but it would sap their hitting power, meaning lots of GB outs. Given that we all know BA and OBP are more critical to winning than SLG, and that power develops in the late 20's, I would rather the little guys focus on having a good AB and defense instead of fireworks.
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Post by jmei on Jan 30, 2014 17:36:31 GMT -5
I think there is a non-zero chance that Marrero starts in Pawtucket and Betts is the full time shortstop in Portland. I agree that there's a small chance, but I still think the overwhelming likelihood is that Marrero starts in Portland. He only had 85 (bad) PAs there last year, and at age 23, he'd still be slightly ahead of the age curve (average age in the Eastern League is 24.4). I don't see much of a reason to rush him-- there's a guy named Xander holding down SS in the major leagues, and Marrero/Coyle/Betts can easily rotate through SS/2B/DH without missing too many reps. If he hits at all (and maybe even if he doesn't), he'll be in Pawtucket by midseason.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 30, 2014 18:07:49 GMT -5
I'm of the opinion that Betts will be better served by leaving him at 2B until he demonstrates a few weeks of AA hitting comfort. The results don't matter, just quality at bats. That could come very early or, more likely a little while into the season. I'd prefer to not see him attempt two separate difficult learning curves simultaneously.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jan 30, 2014 18:24:00 GMT -5
Keith Law will be on WEEI in a moment to discuss his top 10.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jan 30, 2014 18:44:21 GMT -5
Some tidbits:
Alex Speier called Allen Webster the most polarizing player. Some of his sources had him as high as #2 on the Sox top ten, others had him out of the top 10. Law thinks he'll be a reliever.
Law thought Betts was the most polarizing player. His pop-up status gave some of his sources an uneasy feeling, but he thought Betts' athleticism gives him an edge over Odor.
Law praised Bogaerts' on base ability, but thought he's a little passive in hitters counts sometimes. He would like to see some more aggressiveness in hitting mistakes. He thinks Bogaerts is a legitimate shortstop.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 30, 2014 18:51:20 GMT -5
Some tidbits: Alex Speier called Allen Webster the most polarizing player. Some of his sources had him as high as #2 on the Sox top ten, others had him out of the top 10. Law thinks he'll be a reliever. Law thought Betts was the most polarizing player. His pop-up status gave some of his sources an uneasy feeling, but he thought Betts' athleticism gives him an edge over Odor. Law praised Bogaerts' on base ability, but thought he's a little passive in hitters counts sometimes. He would like to see some more aggressiveness in hitting mistakes. He thinks Bogaerts is a legitimate shortstop. On the Bogaerts piece, it sounds like he's talking about the Bogaerts we saw in the Majors last year, and perhaps a little bit in Triple-A. Assuming that's how he meant the statement, I'm down with the characterization, but think it's because that's how Bogaerts was feeling out the level (after all, this is a second-hand representation of what he said - no disrespect to soxfanatic, but we've all played telephone and know how that goes). However, I think that's an inaccurate description if meant by anything beyond that. This is, after all, the same guy who walked once in 23 games at the end of 2012 while punishing pitches of all kinds, mistake or not.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jan 30, 2014 18:58:14 GMT -5
Yeah, Speier elaborated on that. He too pointed out that one of his weaknesses early in his career was over-aggressiveness. He thinks it speaks to Bogaerts ability how he can improve certain parts of his game if he wants to. I think Law was referring to the Bogaerts of last season.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 30, 2014 21:35:44 GMT -5
Can someone please talk me into Coyle as a prospect? I'm not even sure how he's in the discussion with the other two .
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 30, 2014 21:45:09 GMT -5
Regarding Bogaerts, I take that criticism as a positive. It's very minor and if it's the best he can do with a kid his age, I'm giddy.
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Post by jmei on Jan 30, 2014 21:56:56 GMT -5
Can someone please talk me into Coyle as a prospect? I'm not even sure how he's in the discussion with the other two . A three true outcomes-style hitter who plays a solid defensive second base. Think Dan Uggla lite. Coyle is still pretty age advanced (22 in AA, younger than Marrero), has shown the power, just needs to improve the discipline and (especially) cut down on the strikeouts. Still has the tools, but needs to stay healthy and make up for lost time. Frankly, I think there's a solid chance he's ranked higher than Marrero by end of 2014.
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Post by jchang on Jan 30, 2014 22:13:45 GMT -5
On the matter of Coyle as a prospect, as I said above, he should stop the big swings, which should cut down his SO rate, and then his production might also not fall off a cliff after 150 or PA. I am inclined to think he has great talent for putting the barrel on the ball, but his body does not have the endurance to slug like Ortiz.
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