|
Post by widewordofsport on Aug 11, 2014 13:18:45 GMT -5
In a perfect world, Id send him back to Salem (obv not gonna happen). Get back to what worked, get him up to Pawtcuket for next Soring, and tell him it doesnt matter what he does, he's coming up on Aug 1 or whenever.
This is a kid who used to practice fouling balls off, hitting with 2 strikes etc, IIRC. He clearly can let mental stuff affect swing changes etc. take some pressure off and let him work on quieting that swing in an easier environment.
I still think he's a starting CF in the majors. He's not fast enough to be the 4th of/PR (Betts is, but is just too good for that role, apparently). With Cespedes-Nava-Vic-Craig, there SHOULDN'T be a reason Betts or JbJ needs to break camp with the team next spring. No chance neither make it, but hoping they do what's best long term and not give in to fan pressure. Already got a gift 2013 title, long view with these guys, please.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Aug 11, 2014 13:19:52 GMT -5
EDIT: Sigh, replied to something from two pages ago. It'd be swell if proboards had anything at the bottom of the page indicating that I'm not on the last page, but such is life.
|
|
|
Post by widewordofsport on Aug 11, 2014 13:22:34 GMT -5
Other point on JbJ and reason I hated rushing him when the y did (whether it had anything to do with struggles or not).
The Red Sox are using up 2+ years of control trying to turn JbJ and Xander into MlBers. In this system, the big advantage big market teams have is to let prospects overcook so you steal an extra year or two of their prime bc you can get short term FA stopgaps (with variable success, but a 2013 title). If you want a guy from 24-30, then bringing him up at 22, and letting him develop for two years while you waste service time and control, isnt the best option unless you know you are extending him long term before free agency.
|
|
|
Post by MLBDreams on Aug 11, 2014 13:23:47 GMT -5
If the team is full line up (1-9) of JBJ, then they're 0-162. The line up of 9 JBJ won't help Clayton Kershaw (if he's RS starter) at all if he threw more zero's. I loved him as the CF defender but not as the hitter. Jackie is going be lifelong low .200's as MLB hitter. I've seen many former players are out of MLB in short time for being unable to hit in MLB level. It's same apply for bad MLB pitchers. JBJ is only best using as every team's 4th or 5th OF.
|
|
|
Post by widewordofsport on Aug 11, 2014 13:23:57 GMT -5
I just cant see JbJ as not having the tools/ability to hit.
Though I would have though Carl Lewis could throw a ball to home plate, so what do I know.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,501
|
Post by nomar on Aug 11, 2014 13:35:24 GMT -5
If the team is full line up (1-9) of JBJ, then they're 0-162. The line up of 9 JBJ won't help Clayton Kershaw (if he's RS starter) at all if he threw more zero's. I loved him as the CF defender but not as the hitter. Jackie is going be lifelong low .200's as MLB hitter. I've seen many former players are out of MLB in short time for being unable to hit in MLB level. It's same apply for bad MLB pitchers. JBJ is only best using as every team's 4th or 5th OF. We might as well stop watching him now that we know his future.
|
|
|
Post by widewordofsport on Aug 11, 2014 13:39:12 GMT -5
If the team is full line up (1-9) of JBJ, then they're 0-162. The line up of 9 JBJ won't help Clayton Kershaw (if he's RS starter) at all if he threw more zero's. I loved him as the CF defender but not as the hitter. Jackie is going be lifelong low .200's as MLB hitter. I've seen many former players are out of MLB in short time for being unable to hit in MLB level. It's same apply for bad MLB pitchers. JBJ is only best using as every team's 4th or 5th OF. We might as well stop watching him now that we know his future. Dont be so cynical Nomar, he said he saw many former players out of MLB in short time for being unable to hit in MLB level.
|
|
|
Post by moonstone2 on Aug 11, 2014 13:43:23 GMT -5
Unless things improve in the last couple of months. I don't see anyway they Sox can start Bradley in CF to open 2015. They have given him every opportunity to start hitting and he hasn't. So if the Red Sox are really serious about winning next year they need to take Bradley's job away from him barring substantial improvement in the final weeks of the season.
No matter how good a CF he is, you can't have a basically automatic out in the lineup.
|
|
|
Post by moonstone2 on Aug 11, 2014 13:45:51 GMT -5
We might as well stop watching him now that we know his future. Dont be so cynical Nomar, he said he saw many former players out of MLB in short time for being unable to hit in MLB level. Have any been this bad for this long in recent memory and come back to be regulars for a long period of time?
|
|
|
Post by joshv02 on Aug 11, 2014 14:00:34 GMT -5
Billy Hall put up a 67 OPS+ over 120+ games in his first fulltime action, then had a 117 OPS+ the next year, and has played over 1000 games at roughly a 95 OPS+ (basically, avg/slight above for non corner position player).
I don't have a B-R account, but I'm pretty sure there are players that fit the bill. There are many more that don't, but failure is the rule in ML baseball anyway.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Aug 11, 2014 14:05:45 GMT -5
Mark Belanger says hi with a career 71 wRC+ and 34.9 fWAR.
Granted, SS have a little more value than CF and Belanger is one of the all-time best. He hit a 31 and then followed it up with a 61 his 2nd season.
|
|
|
Post by widewordofsport on Aug 11, 2014 14:17:45 GMT -5
JBJ is 15th in CF WAR this year. I think an AAA stint would be great, but I'd buy his stock now if I could. He hits .250/.320/.350 and he's not a liability anymore. Not like he was terrible in Pawtucket last year. Really think he'll figure it out some.
Edit: Belanger a bad example, since he asked about being regulars for a while... Belanger played in 100+ games for 13 straight years. He also had a pretty dismal last two years at AA/AAA, even in light of the era.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 11, 2014 14:22:30 GMT -5
Dont be so cynical Nomar, he said he saw many former players out of MLB in short time for being unable to hit in MLB level. Have any been this bad for this long in recent memory and come back to be regulars for a long period of time? This isn't perfect, but here's a Fangraphs leaderboard for all rookie-eligible player seasons since '94 of 300 PAs or more, ranked by ascending wRC+. Bradley is the 19th worst of these seasons, and if you look at the names around him it's not particularly promising. But then again there a few names like Brandon Phillips, Michael Bourn and Rich Aurilia in the same general vicinity as Bradley so I guess it's not completely hopeless. It doesn't look promising, though.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Aug 11, 2014 14:22:35 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Aug 11, 2014 14:34:40 GMT -5
JBJ is 15th in CF WAR this year. I think an AAA stint would be great, but I'd buy his stock now if I could. He hits .250/.320/.350 and he's not a liability anymore. Not like he was terrible in Pawtucket last year. Really think he'll figure it out some. Edit: Belanger a bad example, since he asked about being regulars for a while... Belanger played in 100+ games for 13 straight years. He also had a pretty dismal last two years at AA/AAA, even in light of the era. I was splitting off on my own tangent. Belanger wasn't an answer to the question above my post.
|
|
|
Post by suttree on Aug 11, 2014 14:36:23 GMT -5
I would like to point out that this is a down year for CFers. Lets assume JBJ gets to 2 fWAR this year. That would have been good for 23rd last year. In 2012? He would be 25th. Basically a 2 fWAR CFer is a bottom third type talent, or a fringe regular.
JBJ "needs" to improve at the plate to stay in the lineup. I'm 50-50 on if he will be the opening day starter. Betts is the better player, there is no debate. What could keep Betts out of CF is JBJ settling in to a 3 WAR player, or a trade.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Aug 11, 2014 14:40:10 GMT -5
Mark Belanger says hi with a career 71 wRC+ and 34.9 fWAR. Granted, SS have a little more value than CF and Belanger is one of the all-time best. He hit a 31 and then followed it up with a 61 his 2nd season. That was a different time though. Today you need more offense than you did in the 70s. You just don't see good field no hit players on winning teams anymore and when they exist they generally get replaced. Notice too as you pointed out that there have been no Mark Belangers in CF. The poor hitting good glove CFs like Bourgeois and Hicks lose their jobs and end up sitting on the bench or in the minors. wRC+ is league (season) adjusted though so being a different time doesn't matter a whole lot. There are the same # of fielding chances for SS and CF I'd guess.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,501
|
Post by nomar on Aug 11, 2014 16:29:29 GMT -5
I think unless Betts moves to 3B/SS, which isn't likely, JBJ will be dealt this winter. This would obviously depend on how far his value has fallen. A team that believes in his bat would probably still value him fairly significantly.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Aug 11, 2014 17:20:35 GMT -5
I have a very hard time seeing Bradley moved this offseason. The Red Sox aren't going to give him away since he still has options left and is still an extremely high-floor prospect (4th outfielder, defensive replacement-type) who also has the sort of pedigree to suggest a fairly high ceiling. Meanwhile, other teams are probably unwilling to give up real value for a player who has hit as poorly as Bradley has. It's tough for two teams to roughly agree on that sort of player's value.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,501
|
Post by nomar on Aug 11, 2014 17:23:28 GMT -5
True but you never know... One team may still hold him higher than you'd presume. Nobody would've thought Fister for Ray would've happened prior to their deal.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Aug 11, 2014 17:27:21 GMT -5
I'm not saying it's impossible, just that it isn't particularly likely. Very few GMs are ballsy enough to give up real value in a buy-low trade.
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 11, 2014 17:52:43 GMT -5
wRC+ is league (season) adjusted though so being a different time doesn't matter a whole lot. There are the same # of fielding chances for SS and CF I'd guess. I don't have the average numbers on me - but the gap is actually quite large between these two. Here are a couple of players just to give you an idea: Jeter (a horrible SS with no range): 123 PO & 193 assists = 316 Bradley (a great CF with good range): 271 PO & 13 assists = 284 If you want to be more precise you can look at errors and evaluate fielding chances along with batted ball data to see the exact number, but the above should illustrate the point. There's a reason why a good fielding SS is so valuable. Based roughly on my memory fielding chances per position sort out as below: 1. 1B 2. SS 3. 2B 4. CF 5. 3B 6. LF 7. RF 8. P ...not sure where C stacks in all of this - but that's kinda it's own monster anyway. I'm sure someone will see this and give a more detailed breakdown.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,501
|
Post by nomar on Aug 11, 2014 18:20:55 GMT -5
I'm not saying it's impossible, just that it isn't particularly likely. Very few GMs are ballsy enough to give up real value in a buy-low trade. It gets even foggier when you consider that f he's traded it'll likely be as part of a package.
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 11, 2014 19:15:07 GMT -5
3 most likely CF options for 2015:
1) Mookie 2) JBJ 3) Denard Span
They have some money to spend and maybe Denard Span's option doesn't get picked up by the Nationals or he is picked up and traded. It could well be option #1 or 2 at this point especially if Betts moves to 3rd.
|
|
|
Post by moonstone2 on Aug 12, 2014 7:32:07 GMT -5
3 most likely CF options for 2015: 1) Mookie 2) JBJ 3) Denard Span They have some money to spend and maybe Denard Span's option doesn't get picked up by the Nationals or he is picked up and traded. It could well be option #1 or 2 at this point especially if Betts moves to 3rd. I don't see why the Sox only realistic options are rushing Betts and having JBJ keep his job. Neither of those are acceptable options for a contending team. They have Cespedes whose best position maybe CF. Why not him in CF Craig in LF and Victorino in RF with Holt and Nava in reserve? Put Betts and Bradley in AAA until they prove themselves.
|
|