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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 4, 2014 11:37:52 GMT -5
Has anyone ever done a studies on either of the following:
1. How velocity is sustained through the years at different start rates.
2. Do guys with higher starting velocities have a bigger window for success than those who don't?
I am curious because most pitchers seem to lose velocity over time. If so, does a guy who throws 90-92 have a smaller window for success than one who throws harder to start? Or is that guy less likely to lose velocity if he throws softer to start?
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 4, 2014 11:44:46 GMT -5
Has anyone ever done a studies on either of the following: 1. How velocity is sustained through the years at different start rates. 2. Do guys with higher starting velocities have a bigger window for success than those who don't? I am curious because most pitchers seem to lose velocity over time. If so, does a guy who throws 90-92 have a smaller window for success than one who throws harder to start? Or is that guy less likely to lose velocity if he throws softer to start? For me, it's all about K/BB rate. So guys who throw 90-92 better have good control. But then there are guys who have crazy K rates like Owens so far that don't have that huge fastball. But that's probably more the exception.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 4, 2014 12:23:24 GMT -5
Sure.....Owen's line looks decent.... but how did he scout last night? In all seriousness, he may never throw more than 92mph on any regular basis which might give some scout's a moment to pause. However, at this point its obvious there is something about his fastball (perhaps deception, or perhaps how it plays off of his changeup) that make it a very effective pitch. He was apparently sitting 90-92 last night with 19 swings and misses, 12 on fastballs and 7 on changeups. Awesomeness. Agree pretty much with your points. I'm not discrediting anything you say with the following, or even necessarily saying that you're saying anything that contradicts my point. I concur with your point, for example, about how his fastball plays up from its velocity. I just want to make a general point about why how a player scouts is still important beyond his numbers. Consider the following line: Age 21, 19 starts, 104.1 ip, 2.33 ERA, 72 H, 24 BB, 101 K, 0.92 WHIP That's Michael Bowden in his second stint in Portland, and it's really good, especially considering his age (about two months younger than Owens is now). I believe that was the season when Keith Law saw him pitch, came away unimpressed, and was immediately pilloried here. Turns out he was correct that the things that made Bowden successful at that level weren't going to work at the MLB level, including his really funky delivery, which added deception. NOW, I am NOT saying that Owens is Bowden. Owens is a better prospect than Bowden ever was. There certainly are a good deal of similarities there, but that isn't my point, which is merely that there are ways to have success in the minors, even as high as Double-A or Triple-A, that won't work in the Majors. Look at Buchholz, for example, who is a much different pitcher now than he was even in his first Triple-A stint, or Papelbon, who really only became what he did because Schilling taught him the splitter at spring training the year he came up for good. Anyway, I just wanted to point out that, while we can and should enjoy performances like this, and while we shouldn't ignore them, they don't make the other stuff - the scouting, etc. - irrelevant either.
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Post by nexus on Apr 4, 2014 13:49:17 GMT -5
What gets me excited about a guy like Owens over anyone else is his FB/CH combo. His change is clearly plus, maybe plus-plus. I don't care how deceptive you are with the FB, you cannot maintain 11+ K/9 rates throughout your entire professional career unless you have a lethal secondary pitch... and that's the change.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 4, 2014 13:51:17 GMT -5
What gets me excited about a guy like Owens over anyone else is his FB/CH combo. His change is clearly plus, maybe plus-plus. I don't care how deceptive you are with the FB, you cannot maintain 11+ K/9 rates throughout your entire professional career unless you have a lethal secondary pitch... and that's the change. Yeah, and like Koji with the splitter
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