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Red Sox outfield roster crunch
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Post by joshv02 on Apr 11, 2014 20:10:31 GMT -5
Happ was a bad pitcher (for two years running) with a 3.7mm salary waived after everyone's rotations were set. And I think you know the Bard story.
The Red Sox claimed Millar (not oaw, but the same agreement held).
I don't know if Nava would be claimed. I doubt it's quiet as simple as you suggest. Plus these aren't pixels - you don't waive them just bc you can just pull it back. That's not how you build any organization.
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Post by jmei on Apr 11, 2014 20:37:48 GMT -5
Happ had a 4.01 FIP and was worth 1.7 fWAR the season before he was optioned. Bard struggled the year he was waived, but he was coming off two 1.6 fWAR seasons and had been one of the best setup men in the league. Nava was terrific in 2013, but he was still only worth 1.8 fWAR (yes, bWAR sees things differently; it's still a difference of degree, not kind) and he's not exactly an established star (only 1080 career PAs of .269/.363/.407 ball).
Nava will likely be annoyed if he had to be pulled back, but he would have been even more annoyed if he cleared waivers and had to report to Pawtucket, so I think that's a separate question. While it's a legitimate one, I think you're exaggerating it a little. I mean, Nava won't reach free agency until he's 34 or 35, and Workman keeps getting optioned even though he's performed exquisitely when he's been up, and every team manipulates service time to get an extra year of free agency out of their young players. None of those things are really fair either, but rules are rules and teams just try to operate as well as they can within them.
Since there's really no risk that the Red Sox would actually lose Nava to another team (he's unlikely to be claimed, and even if he is, the Red Sox would just pull him back), the only downsides to optioning Nava are (a) the fact that you lose the opportunity to play Nava and (b) any hard feelings that might come from trying to option a semi-established MLB player. You're absolutely right to suggest that the latter definitely should factor into the analysis, but it's still just one minor factor. I probably wouldn't option Nava, but that's not really the reason I wouldn't option Nava.
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Post by mattpicard on Apr 12, 2014 2:17:57 GMT -5
I can't see a compelling case for optioning Nava over trading Carp. Here's why: - Nava can play two outfield positions adequately. Carp can only play one them - the one that Carp, Sizemore, and Nava all ideally belong at - and he plays it terribly. - Both Nava and Carp provide similar defense at first base. - Say we trot out an outfield alignment of Sizemore/JBJ/Victorino most days vs. a RHP. There are two guys there who will require more off days than your typical player, plus a youngster who will sit out occasionally. Nava, due to his significantly superior defense over Carp, is the guy should be playing in all of these games. Combine that with opportunities at 1B and DH occasionally, and it won't be like he's suddenly going to go several days without at bats. He could find himself back as an everyday player (vs. RHP) in no time due to all the injury risks. Carp is essentially a 1B/DH. Gomes isn't really a 4th or 5th outfielder: He should just be looked at as a starting OF vs. lefties, and not someone you worry about fitting in against RHP's. Thus, without Nava, you're relying on Sizemore/JBJ/Victorino against RHP's with the alternatives being two atrocious defenders who can really only play left outside of Yankee Stadium. That is, you're relying on Carp as your guy in the outfield if any of Grady/JBJ/Shanf miss time, and that's just too much time for Carp in the outfield. Carp provides no service better than Nava other than power. He's the odd man out. And if you're trying to draw any substantive conclusions about Nava's potential as a player going forward based on his start this season, well, don't. If you option Nava, and someone gets hurt, you simply call him back up, making the issue with playing Carp repeatedly in LF moot. Nava could STILL "find himself back as an everyday player (vs. RHP) in no time due to all the injury risks." Plus, if ONE of Victorino/Sizemore/Bradley goes down, there's little to no issue with playing Gomes/Carp in LF (or RF in MFYS), ie. you would NEVER need to play Gomes and Carp together unless there were multiple in-game injuries. Unless you believe that Nava is a far superior player in LF (enough to make a win over the 40+ games each would see given no injuries) then you option Nava. You don't have to account for games seen with injuries, because you just call Nava back up in those instances. I'm anticipating a fair amount of mild soreness/tightness type injuries between Victorino and Sizemore that don't require a DL stint, but call for a string of games to be missed. Those are the games where I think we'd start to get frustrated with Carp or Gomes patrolling the outfield when you have a guy with significantly better defense and whose bat is around or superior to theirs.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 15, 2014 12:12:00 GMT -5
Alex Speier casting some doubt that the Red Sox offense has just been "unlucky" with all the caveats about small sample, early, etc. www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2014/04/15/what-happened-championship-lineup-taking-stockExcerpt: Still, it would be a mistake to shrug and say the Sox have experienced only bad luck to date. After all, while BABIP can be influenced by chance, it can also be influenced significantly by a failure to hit a ball hard. Just because a three-hopper to a second baseman is put in play, it doesn't mean that it stands the same likelihood of being a hit as a screamer into the right-field corner.
And clearly, the Sox are doing little to impact the ball when there are opportunities with runners in scoring position -- a notion highlighted by the fact that the team has had extra-base hits in just 4.4 percent of plate appearances with runners in scoring position, last in the American League.That statement, from the normally perspicacious Alex Speier, is kinda silly. Distribution of hard-hit balls is just as much luck as BABIP, or close enough not to matter much. The declining walk rate is a concern, for sure. But I really don't know how seriously we can take that at this point. Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz didn't suddenly become different hitters. AJ is a genuine issue, but it's not like we didn't all know that going in ... you get what you get from him. The one person I'm a little less sanguine about is Daniel Nava. We all assumed that what we saw last year is what we'll get from Nava going forward, but we still don't have a long history of major league success will go on. The Sox have had some health issues, the downgrade from Ellsbury to JBJ is substantial (at least in the short term), and they've had some bad luck. I'm not sure there's much else we can really be confident of at this point. Is Nava to Pawtucket out of the question? Doesn't make a lot of sense to keep him on the roster instead of JBJ at this point, when Shane comes back.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 15, 2014 12:30:05 GMT -5
Probably ... sending him down would be an overreaction to a very small sample, imo. It's pretty likely that he'll hit well going forward; it's probably just not quite as likely as we all were portraying it in our projections for the season.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 15, 2014 13:25:19 GMT -5
Probably ... sending him down would be an overreaction to a very small sample, imo. It's pretty likely that he'll hit well going forward; it's probably just not quite as likely as we all were portraying it in our projections for the season. So you're saying we should send Jackie back? Or trade someone? Shane is set to come back very soon.
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Post by jmei on Apr 15, 2014 14:59:12 GMT -5
I would still look to trade Carp, since he really has no role on this team when everyone is healthy. But if that's out of the question for whatever reason, it's either Nava or Bradley who gets optioned down when Victorino returns from the DL, and I don't think it should be out of the question that Bradley is the one sent to Pawtucket. Bradley is still striking out a ton (28.9% Ks, which is Saltalamacchia-esque) and not hitting for much power. The only real difference from his stint last year is that he's having way more success on balls in play, and once his BABIP regresses from its current .409 mark, it's not going to be so clear that he has to stay in the majors.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 15, 2014 15:00:05 GMT -5
Nava's .158 BABIP will probably rise a little.
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Post by mattpicard on Apr 15, 2014 16:21:32 GMT -5
I would still look to trade Carp, since he really has no role on this team when everyone is healthy. But if that's out of the question for whatever reason, it's either Nava or Bradley who gets optioned down when Victorino returns from the DL, and I don't think it should be out of the question that Bradley is the one sent to Pawtucket. Bradley is still striking out a ton (28.9% Ks, which is Saltalamacchia-esque) and not hitting for much power. The only real difference from his stint last year is that he's having way more success on balls in play, and once his BABIP regresses from its current .409 mark, it's not going to be so clear that he has to stay in the majors. I'd argue that he has to stay on account of his defense alone. Sizemore has demonstrated, to me at least, that he is a below average defender in center these days. That doesn't mean he shouldn't play there at all, but when he's being flanked by Nava and one of Carp/Gomes, that leaves us with an outstandingly horrific outfield. If JBJ is able to maintain a .310+ OBP, which he should be able to, I think we're best off keeping him on the roster and starting him in at least 75% of the games. I know you want to maintain depth in the system, and moving Carp diminishes that desired depth, but choosing the option of optioning Nava or JBJ hurts the major league roster enough in my eyes to a point where doing so just isn't worth it. Move Carp. I realize that's banking on health from Napoli and Ortiz, but it's a risk I'm willing to take, and we do have enough depth in AAA to limit the potential costliness of Carp's departure.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Apr 15, 2014 22:03:35 GMT -5
dittos.
I just copied and pasted everything on here ... and changed Nava to Herrera and Carp to Roberts and "Victorino back" to "Mdbks back". I am prepared for the next thread.
Do we option JH or is RR out?
I vote option NAVA, cuz it is a secret ballot. And Carp enjoys his time at 3B.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 15, 2014 22:23:01 GMT -5
If Napoli just hurt himself on that slide, that solves your logjam right there. Carp becomes regular 1B probably, with some Nava peppered in.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 16, 2014 6:33:51 GMT -5
dittos. I just copied and pasted everything on here ... and changed Nava to Herrera and Carp to Roberts and "Victorino back" to "Mdbks back". I am prepared for the next thread. Do we option JH or is RR out? I vote option NAVA, cuz it is a secret ballot. And Carp enjoys his time at 3B. Probably option WMB because he has options and we can't give up Roberts as depth.
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Post by larrycook on Apr 16, 2014 7:42:47 GMT -5
dittos. I just copied and pasted everything on here ... and changed Nava to Herrera and Carp to Roberts and "Victorino back" to "Mdbks back". I am prepared for the next thread. Do we option JH or is RR out? I vote option NAVA, cuz it is a secret ballot. And Carp enjoys his time at 3B. Probably option WMB because he has options and we can't give up Roberts as depth. Middlebrooks should get a Pawtucket rehab assignment once he is ready to return.
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Post by moonstone2 on Apr 17, 2014 0:22:52 GMT -5
Probably ... sending him down would be an overreaction to a very small sample, imo. It's pretty likely that he'll hit well going forward; it's probably just not quite as likely as we all were portraying it in our projections for the season. I know people love Nava but I don't think Nava's numbers so far should be dismissed. Performance over a small sample size can be fully, representative of who he is, or maybe some combination of both. Nava's a perfect example of this. He's probably not going to end up with a BABIP in the 150 range. But on the other hand he doesn't have the attributes you'd expect in a high BABIP guy either. In fact I would think that he might end up making a lot of weak contact. Maybe enough to put his BABIP in the 280s or so. Then the question becomes what type of player you have left. I think you are left with a player who can help, but not one that you absolutely must have on the major league roster. Certainly not a player that I would give up my depth so I could keep on the roster. I don't think it makes sense that Nava absolutely must be kept on the roster based on his statistics from last year. Those numbers aren't fully representative of his actual talent.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 17, 2014 8:12:54 GMT -5
Probably ... sending him down would be an overreaction to a very small sample, imo. It's pretty likely that he'll hit well going forward; it's probably just not quite as likely as we all were portraying it in our projections for the season. I know people love Nava but I don't think Nava's numbers so far should be dismissed. Performance over a small sample size can be fully, representative of who he is, or maybe some combination of both. Nava's a perfect example of this. He's probably not going to end up with a BABIP in the 150 range. But on the other hand he doesn't have the attributes you'd expect in a high BABIP guy either. In fact I would think that he might end up making a lot of weak contact. Maybe enough to put his BABIP in the 280s or so. Then the question becomes what type of player you have left. I think you are left with a player who can help, but not one that you absolutely must have on the major league roster. Certainly not a player that I would give up my depth so I could keep on the roster. I don't think it makes sense that Nava absolutely must be kept on the roster based on his statistics from last year. Those numbers aren't fully representative of his actual talent. Even with your doomsday regression scenario, Nava will be over .350 OBP which is pretty damn nice to have for a guy who isn't a butcher in the field like Carp is. The guy walks (and gets HBP). He'd have to fall awfully far to not be roster worthy considering he was practically equal to Napoli last season in wRC+ 128/129.
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Post by joshv02 on Apr 17, 2014 11:39:29 GMT -5
Happ had a 4.01 FIP and was worth 1.7 fWAR the season before he was optioned. I responded in off-topic to not derail the thread, but these two stats are the same (one is just a rate), and I think don't tell the real story.
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Post by 111soxfan111 on Apr 17, 2014 11:59:59 GMT -5
Probably ... sending him down would be an overreaction to a very small sample, imo. It's pretty likely that he'll hit well going forward; it's probably just not quite as likely as we all were portraying it in our projections for the season. I know people love Nava but I don't think Nava's numbers so far should be dismissed. Performance over a small sample size can be fully, representative of who he is, or maybe some combination of both. Nava's a perfect example of this. He's probably not going to end up with a BABIP in the 150 range. But on the other hand he doesn't have the attributes you'd expect in a high BABIP guy either. In fact I would think that he might end up making a lot of weak contact. Maybe enough to put his BABIP in the 280s or so. Then the question becomes what type of player you have left. I think you are left with a player who can help, but not one that you absolutely must have on the major league roster. Certainly not a player that I would give up my depth so I could keep on the roster. I don't think it makes sense that Nava absolutely must be kept on the roster based on his statistics from last year. Those numbers aren't fully representative of his actual talent. What attributes are those? Nava hits plenty of line drives and his career batted ball %'s produce an expected BABIP of .333 vs. his career BABIP of .321. I wouldn't argue with you saying we shouldn't expect a repeat of last year's #'s but there's a lot of territory between that and saying he could end up making enough weak contact to produce a .280 BABIP. I can agree with the idea that you protect your depth whenever possible and Nava isn't untouchable. Gomes and Sizemore are both gone after this year so I'd hate to see them give up a cost controlled player to make room for them and a fire sale trade of Carp counts as giving him up in my book. Personally, I'd send JBJ down before Nava without spending too much time worrying about it since it's an easy decision to revisit if/when necessary.
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Post by moonstone2 on Apr 17, 2014 23:30:34 GMT -5
As expected Nava's love contingent is out in force comparing him to obviously better players. It's the World Series all over again where the love contingent groussed and the Sox won.
More like .330. He has virtually no chance the OBP you are talking about with a mid 80s OBP.
Guys with outsized BABIPs tend to have one of two attributes. Outstanding foot speed like Ichiro. Or outstanding batspeed/bat control like Jeter. Nava has neither of those attributes. You don't see him going the other way a lot.
I don't see a guy who is hitting a lot of rockets all over the park that are getting caught or landing just foul. I see a guy who is popping up and rolling over a lot. That's not going to suddenly change. Remember too that to keep him on the roster over Carp, he's got to be so much better that it's worth biting into your depth in April despite having Sizemmore Victorino and Ortiz on the roster.
Putting Bradley in AAA means a substantially weaker defense at two positions. I don't think Nava is so much better a hitter that he'll make up for that. I just don't see how you can ignore what pitchers have been doing to Nava.
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Post by jmei on Apr 18, 2014 10:37:21 GMT -5
Guys with outsized BABIPs tend to have one of two attributes. Outstanding foot speed like Ichiro. Or outstanding batspeed/bat control like Jeter. Nava has neither of those attributes. You don't see him going the other way a lot. I don't see a guy who is hitting a lot of rockets all over the park that are getting caught or landing just foul. I see a guy who is popping up and rolling over a lot. That's not going to suddenly change. Well, despite his .130 batting average this season, Nava has a 21.4% line drive rate, which is above the league average of roughly 20%. Looking at his career spray charts ( versus RHP, versus LHP), we see that Nava has indeed been spraying line drives all over the field, which would suggest the ability to maintain above-average BABIPs (compare that chart to someone like Dan Uggla, who pulls a vast majority of his BIP and has posted below-average BABIPs across his career). Looking specifically at his spray charts this year ( versus RHP, versus LHP), it does look like he's been unlucky on balls in play. In particular, his vs. RHP chart shows a bunch of his line drives being caught (only two of his six line drives have fallen in for hits; the league-average BABIP on line drives is .688). Plus, Nava has always been a player who has posted above-average BABIPs by generating a ton of line drives. He's got a career .320 BABIP in the major leagues (in 1103 PAs) with a career 23.5% line drive rate. He's got a career minor league BABIP of .315 with a career minor league line drive rate of 22.1%. Given all the above, Nava's ability to hit lots of line drives and maintain an above-average BABIP looks more like a skill than a fluke.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 18, 2014 10:56:57 GMT -5
As expected Nava's love contingent is out in force comparing him to obviously better players. It's the World Series all over again where the love contingent groussed and the Sox won. More like .330. He has virtually no chance the OBP you are talking about with a mid 80s OBP. Guys with outsized BABIPs tend to have one of two attributes. Outstanding foot speed like Ichiro. Or outstanding batspeed/bat control like Jeter. Nava has neither of those attributes. You don't see him going the other way a lot. I don't see a guy who is hitting a lot of rockets all over the park that are getting caught or landing just foul. I see a guy who is popping up and rolling over a lot. That's not going to suddenly change. Remember too that to keep him on the roster over Carp, he's got to be so much better that it's worth biting into your depth in April despite having Sizemmore Victorino and Ortiz on the roster. Putting Bradley in AAA means a substantially weaker defense at two positions. I don't think Nava is so much better a hitter that he'll make up for that. I just don't see how you can ignore what pitchers have been doing to Nava. There's not really an elegant way to say this... you've been predicting Nava's demise essentially since day one. Every time he has a bad three week stretch, you post that, rather than a small sample, the poor play indicative of his true skill level. (See here or here) Eventually, someday, you will be right - Nava is one day certain to go into a slump that he doesn't return from, because every player eventually grows old and stops being good. But you need to leave the "this is the player he truly is" argument behind at this point. He now has 1100 career plate appearances with a .266/.362/.404 line. Since his 2012 recall, he's hit .271/.364/.413 in over 900 plate appearances. You really seem to be having trouble with the fact that you were wrong about him, and seem to use every small stretch of poor play that he has as evidence that you were right all along.
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Post by moonstone2 on Apr 18, 2014 20:46:24 GMT -5
Balls in play are characterized as line drives at the discretion of whomever is charting the game that day. Again dude, I know you don't really enjoy watching the games and prefer to evaluate players based on what is on fangraphs, but I don't see a guy that is really hitting a ton of rockets. Yeah yeah I know Nava has done okay thus far despite all the bad things I have said about him. Doesn't mean I am wrong, just early. . To be honest it's not him I don't like but his love contingent, that tells us that his poor play shouldn't be part of the equation and that optioning him is equivalent to releasing David Ortiz. In this case there is a difference though. The Red Sox have four guys who are basically LFs none of whom is terrible. By the end of next week, the Red Sox won't be able to keep all four and only one of those guys has options. That guy is Daniel Nava. Despite the small sample, the Red Sox need to make a decision next week as to whom they will keep. They absolutely need to take into consideration that Nava is being pitched inside a lot more resulting in a lot of weak contact. Finally we learned today that the Red Sox do indeed evaluate players based upon small sample sizes. Ryan Roberts had many fewer plate appearances. The Red Sox didn't like what they saw, and Holt was lighting up AAA so Roberts was gone. It's that simple. Nava has never really lived up to how he did the first couple of months of 2013 and the Red Sox should take that into consideration.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 19, 2014 10:12:54 GMT -5
I'm somewhat with you on the Nava love contingent, but your judgement is completely clouded by this. Nava's only off month last year was July. His August & September numbers were arguable better than his earlier season numbers. His 2012 was good before his injury possibly derailed his production. He hits line drives, they just aren't scorching liners typically.
I with you that he's a legit option to be sent down. If I were making the decision, it would be high on my list of possibilities. I wouldn't love getting rid of Carp, Nava or Bradley if I were Ben
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Post by mattpicard on Apr 19, 2014 10:22:41 GMT -5
Nava has never really lived up to how he did the first couple of months of 2013 and the Red Sox should take that into consideration. Nava's OPS by month in 2013: April: .885 May: .820 June: .758 July: .676 August: 1.035 Sept/Oct: .876 Maybe the love contingent likes him because he was probably our second best and most consistent hitter vs. RHP's last season, offers far more competent defense than Carp and Gomes, and has nothing pointing to a dramatic collapse from the solid on-base hitter he's been his whole career. I do hate that he has to play against lefties when Victorino is out - he simply can't hit them. This season: OPS vs. RHP's: .643 OPS vs. LHP's: .170 That RHP OPS is around the same as the overall OPS's of Pedroia, Gomes, Ortiz, and JBJ so far. Nava's been bad, but he hasn't been that much worse than the others.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 19, 2014 10:38:27 GMT -5
Balls in play are characterized as line drives at the discretion of whomever is charting the game that day. Again dude, I know you don't really enjoy watching the games and prefer to evaluate players based on what is on fangraphs, but I don't see a guy that is really hitting a ton of rockets. Yeah yeah I know Nava has done okay thus far despite all the bad things I have said about him. Doesn't mean I am wrong, just early. . To be honest it's not him I don't like but his love contingent, that tells us that his poor play shouldn't be part of the equation and that optioning him is equivalent to releasing David Ortiz. In this case there is a difference though. The Red Sox have four guys who are basically LFs none of whom is terrible. By the end of next week, the Red Sox won't be able to keep all four and only one of those guys has options. That guy is Daniel Nava. Despite the small sample, the Red Sox need to make a decision next week as to whom they will keep. They absolutely need to take into consideration that Nava is being pitched inside a lot more resulting in a lot of weak contact. Finally we learned today that the Red Sox do indeed evaluate players based upon small sample sizes. Ryan Roberts had many fewer plate appearances. The Red Sox didn't like what they saw, and Holt was lighting up AAA so Roberts was gone. It's that simple. Nava has never really lived up to how he did the first couple of months of 2013 and the Red Sox should take that into consideration. Your hyperbole about Nava's demise forces me anyway into the so-called love contingent by even disagreeing with you. I'm not in love with him, but recognize his decent value vs. RHP for league minimum. He'll probably end up on the Rays someday and be an All-Star. All I've ever argued is that he's way more valuable than Carp and that someone has to go to make permanent room for JBJ. I prefer it's Carp who is so redundant there's no point in him taking up a roster spot.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 19, 2014 19:47:54 GMT -5
Are we in agreement Bradley stays?
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