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Red Sox outfield roster crunch
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 10, 2014 11:15:21 GMT -5
No one here likes Nava more than I do. I even bought his domain names for a while, when he was in the minors. I'm a huge fan of that guy but he's getting burned over and over by the umps for some reason. Probably just bad luck. They don't appear to want to give us calls this year, as reigning WS champs. We are just going to have to get used to it. Nava is right on most of the strike calls against him but that gets us now where if the umps miscall it.
Considering the fragility of our OF players, especially Victorino and Sizemore and really any CF type is more susceptable to injury IMO, we will need all hands on deck at some point but to me option A is to trade Carp and option B is to option Nava to AAA for a while. I hate option B but I don't want to lose him or get nothing for Carp and JBJ needs to stay.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 10, 2014 14:03:45 GMT -5
Let's not get out of control. He's not going to take weeks to get his strength back from the flu. He probably didn't lose all that much muscle mass. The vast majority if weight loss is from cleaning the crap, literally, from your system, not having food in you and the biggest reason is dehydration. Once he can eat and drink normally his weight will be back in days.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 10, 2014 21:20:32 GMT -5
So if Nava or Carp has to go to make this happen, then unfortunately that's what needs to happen. I guess the best return in a deal would be the way the Sox need to go. So you'd rather trade Nava than send him down? I don't understand what the issue is with optioning him. You really don't understand the issue with optioning him? He's an established major league hitter who batted .303 last year with an OBP around .370. In the real world guys like this don't get optioned - nor should they. If they don't have a need for him they should see what they can get in a deal for him. Odds are the Sox will keep him and deal Carp. The Sox might very well need Nava to man LF in 2015 (or earlier when an injury hits) if Sizemore isn't back beyond 2014.
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Post by moonstone2 on Apr 10, 2014 21:30:42 GMT -5
So then what you are saying is that because he was good last year they can't option him and instead have to get rid of him. Hmmmmm
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 11, 2014 8:20:50 GMT -5
So you'd rather trade Nava than send him down? I don't understand what the issue is with optioning him. You really don't understand the issue with optioning him? He's an established major league hitter who batted .303 last year with an OBP around .370. In the real world guys like this don't get optioned - nor should they. If they don't have a need for him they should see what they can get in a deal for him. Odds are the Sox will keep him and deal Carp. The Sox might very well need Nava to man LF in 2015 (or earlier when an injury hits) if Sizemore isn't back beyond 2014. The reality is if Bradley stays and Sizemore starts with him then Nava is the 5th OF who barely plays, so the guy you described typically isn't in that role either. Also, not to knock him, but just point out reality, Nava has had one good complete major league season. I'm not so sure, I'd be calling him an established major league hitter. It's not a long major league track record. That's not me saying I don't believe in him because I do, but if he's a fifth outfielder who gets 8 plate appearances in a week plus, then optioning is a legit path to take. Unpopular because of his story, but he's a tool in the tool box, like everyone else. Unfortunately for him, he's a limited too with flexibility still.
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Post by jmei on Apr 11, 2014 9:45:09 GMT -5
Nava is one of the more flexible position players on the roster, with the ability to back up both corner outfield positions and 1B adequately. The sad reality is that he's got options, which means he might have to be the odd man out.
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Post by godot on Apr 11, 2014 9:51:04 GMT -5
He does have options, but how long could they bury him at AAA? If Sizemore and Shane are healthy, they will only delay a decision. Of course, I am assuming that Jr. will continue to play well.
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Post by elguapo on Apr 11, 2014 10:33:45 GMT -5
Some like to blame the lack of roster flexibility on having a full time DH -- which is more than a little silly when we're trying to figure out how to keep our two backup DHs on the roster. The trend toward more use of platoons is a move toward less flexibility, not more - two roster spots to fill one position. At least Papi can handle one position on his own and do it well.
Bradley Jr. & Victorino are the core - you start there and build out. Gomes is the righthanded balance. Nava & Sizemore have the best combinations of hitting & fielding ability.
So Carp is the odd man out. They hardly used him last season, anyway. Free Carp! Sell him to Hiroshima!
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Post by joshv02 on Apr 11, 2014 12:28:02 GMT -5
Nava would have to go through optional assignment waivers, no? While I understand players are rarely claimed off oaw, it's rare that a 0.370 obp is waived.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 11, 2014 12:51:07 GMT -5
So then what you are saying is that because he was good last year they can't option him and instead have to get rid of him. Hmmmmm No, I'm saying it's moronic to option a guy coming off a .370 OBP who has struggled in what - 40 ABs? Hey nice season Nava. Enjoy Pawtucket. Get real. Who the hell does this? What is this - stratomatic? You have 3 realistic choices with Nava. You either: 1) play him because his OBP is an asset and he can help you win. 2) have him come off the bench because his OBP is an asset and you need good bench players that aren't automatic outs on the days they play and can fill in long-term should an injury occur to Victorino or Sizemore - not that that can happen, right? And can also help pinch-hitting. 3) trade him for value. I'm sure 29 other teams can use a guy who gets on base a lot, I would think. If Carp is only going to get about 100 - 150 ABs and given the roster composition that's a realistic possibility, then he's not going to do anything in those ABs far and above what Nava, who has more defensive flexibility, would do. I would trade Carp for the best deal I could get and let Nava absorb those "bench" ABs.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 11, 2014 12:54:31 GMT -5
You really don't understand the issue with optioning him? He's an established major league hitter who batted .303 last year with an OBP around .370. In the real world guys like this don't get optioned - nor should they. If they don't have a need for him they should see what they can get in a deal for him. Odds are the Sox will keep him and deal Carp. The Sox might very well need Nava to man LF in 2015 (or earlier when an injury hits) if Sizemore isn't back beyond 2014. The reality is if Bradley stays and Sizemore starts with him then Nava is the 5th OF who barely plays, so the guy you described typically isn't in that role either. Also, not to knock him, but just point out reality, Nava has had one good complete major league season. I'm not so sure, I'd be calling him an established major league hitter. It's not a long major league track record. That's not me saying I don't believe in him because I do, but if he's a fifth outfielder who gets 8 plate appearances in a week plus, then optioning is a legit path to take. Unpopular because of his story, but he's a tool in the tool box, like everyone else. Unfortunately for him, he's a limited too with flexibility still. I don't see Nava as the 5th OF. I see his as the 4th OF (Gomes would be 5th) and backup 1b/dh. There's a role for Daniel Nava on this team if Grady Sizemore is back to being somewhere near the player he used to be. Given the injury history of Victorino and Sizemore, Nava (against a righty) would be the 1st guy to step in for injuries and Sizemore days off. Gomes, ideally, would only be used if the Sox need a PH against lefties, Sizemore isn't playing and the pitcher is lefty, or Ortiz needs a breather and the pitcher is lefty. Given the injury histories, even as a bench player there should be about 400 PA for Nava.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 11, 2014 12:57:52 GMT -5
Nava would have to go through optional assignment waivers, no? While I understand players are rarely claimed off oaw, it's rare that a 0.370 obp is waived. I've heard this elsewhere. I think you're right about this. And if that's the case he would be claimed. This isn't some fringe player.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 11, 2014 13:05:34 GMT -5
If he needs to go through optional waivers then that changes things. But I don't know that to be the case.
However, he would be the fifth OF. He's basically a LHH and the guys he'd mostly be spelling are also LHH so Gomes should see more Abs as Grady's off days would be worked around LHP. It's not about who is better between him and Gomes it's about the role.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 11, 2014 13:09:03 GMT -5
Nava shouldn't have to be placed through waivers because he still has an option left and he doesn't meet the Veterans consent clause which requires 5 years if MLB service. Pedroia has options but he's a veteran of 5+ years so can't be sent down. Nava should be able to.
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Post by jmei on Apr 11, 2014 13:34:09 GMT -5
I think Nava would get much more playing time than the average 5th outfielder. Even if he's platooned with Gomes, Sizemore will still need the occasional day off versus RHP, especially as the season stretches on. Nava would also step in if Victorino needed any time off to rest any lingering injuries or if Bradley needed a day off. I understand the general idea that Nava wouldn't be the starter or even be part of a platoon, and so optioning him wouldn't be a great loss, but I think calling him the 5th outfielder undersells what his role would be. Re: Optional Assignment Waivers My understanding is that GMs have a handshake agreement to never claim a player on OAW. Indeed, I can't find a single report of any player ever having been claimed on OAW, and there are multiple reports that make a similar claim (see here or here, for instance). There have been some pretty solid players who have passed through OAW in recent years, including J.A. Happ in 2013 (a player coming off a 1.7 win season) and Daniel Bard in 2012. I don't think it's something that scares the Red Sox, either-- the scenario where Grady Sizemore would have been optioned to the minors to start 2014 would have required that he pass through OAW, for instance, yet that's something that both Farrell and the front office considered and presumably had no problem with. Even in the worst-case scenario (that a rogue team breaks the gentleman's agreement and claims Nava on OAW), the Red Sox can revoke the waivers and keep Nava, so it wouldn't hurt to try.
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Post by jmei on Apr 11, 2014 13:36:48 GMT -5
Nava shouldn't have to be placed through waivers because he still has an option left and he doesn't meet the Veterans consent clause which requires 5 years if MLB service. Pedroia has options but he's a veteran of 5+ years so can't be sent down. Nava should be able to. Optional assignment waivers are required if a player has options left and less than 5 years of service time but the player is more than three years removed from the date that he first reached the majors. OAW would definitely apply to Nava, but as I discussed above, it's very unlikely that he'd be claimed as there is almost certainly a gentleman's agreement amongst the various front offices to not do so.
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Post by mattpicard on Apr 11, 2014 13:43:06 GMT -5
I can't see a compelling case for optioning Nava over trading Carp. Here's why:
- Nava can play two outfield positions adequately. Carp can only play one them - the one that Carp, Sizemore, and Nava all ideally belong at - and he plays it terribly. - Both Nava and Carp provide similar defense at first base. - Say we trot out an outfield alignment of Sizemore/JBJ/Victorino most days vs. a RHP. There are two guys there who will require more off days than your typical player, plus a youngster who will sit out occasionally. Nava, due to his significantly superior defense over Carp, is the guy should be playing in all of these games. Combine that with opportunities at 1B and DH occasionally, and it won't be like he's suddenly going to go several days without at bats. He could find himself back as an everyday player (vs. RHP) in no time due to all the injury risks.
Carp is essentially a 1B/DH. Gomes isn't really a 4th or 5th outfielder: He should just be looked at as a starting OF vs. lefties, and not someone you worry about fitting in against RHP's. Thus, without Nava, you're relying on Sizemore/JBJ/Victorino against RHP's with the alternatives being two atrocious defenders who can really only play left outside of Yankee Stadium. That is, you're relying on Carp as your guy in the outfield if any of Grady/JBJ/Shanf miss time, and that's just too much time for Carp in the outfield.
Carp provides no service better than Nava other than power. He's the odd man out. And if you're trying to draw any substantive conclusions about Nava's potential as a player going forward based on his start this season, well, don't.
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Post by okin15 on Apr 11, 2014 14:20:23 GMT -5
I can't see a compelling case for optioning Nava over trading Carp. Here's why: - Nava can play two outfield positions adequately. Carp can only play one them - the one that Carp, Sizemore, and Nava all ideally belong at - and he plays it terribly. - Both Nava and Carp provide similar defense at first base. - Say we trot out an outfield alignment of Sizemore/JBJ/Victorino most days vs. a RHP. There are two guys there who will require more off days than your typical player, plus a youngster who will sit out occasionally. Nava, due to his significantly superior defense over Carp, is the guy should be playing in all of these games. Combine that with opportunities at 1B and DH occasionally, and it won't be like he's suddenly going to go several days without at bats. He could find himself back as an everyday player (vs. RHP) in no time due to all the injury risks. Carp is essentially a 1B/DH. Gomes isn't really a 4th or 5th outfielder: He should just be looked at as a starting OF vs. lefties, and not someone you worry about fitting in against RHP's. Thus, without Nava, you're relying on Sizemore/JBJ/Victorino against RHP's with the alternatives being two atrocious defenders who can really only play left outside of Yankee Stadium. That is, you're relying on Carp as your guy in the outfield if any of Grady/JBJ/Shanf miss time, and that's just too much time for Carp in the outfield. Carp provides no service better than Nava other than power. He's the odd man out. And if you're trying to draw any substantive conclusions about Nava's potential as a player going forward based on his start this season, well, don't. If you option Nava, and someone gets hurt, you simply call him back up, making the issue with playing Carp repeatedly in LF moot. Nava could STILL "find himself back as an everyday player (vs. RHP) in no time due to all the injury risks." Plus, if ONE of Victorino/Sizemore/Bradley goes down, there's little to no issue with playing Gomes/Carp in LF (or RF in MFYS), ie. you would NEVER need to play Gomes and Carp together unless there were multiple in-game injuries. Unless you believe that Nava is a far superior player in LF (enough to make a win over the 40+ games each would see given no injuries) then you option Nava. You don't have to account for games seen with injuries, because you just call Nava back up in those instances.
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Post by jmei on Apr 11, 2014 14:23:34 GMT -5
Well, the only argument for optioning Nava over trading Carp is that if you option Nava, you still keep him in the organization, and the Red Sox could call him up if Victorino or Sizemore or anyone else needs a DL stint. If you trade Carp, you're likely not going to get back anything that can help you this season, and while I'm pretty low on Carp in general, he's still the best reserve left-handed bat in the organization by a pretty wide margin and provides depth value that way.
I agree that Carp provides basically nothing that Nava doesn't (if you think Carp's 2013 was repeatable, he'd provide some power and upside, but I tend to think their median offensive projections are pretty similar going forward) while Nava provides a fair bit that Carp does not (superior outfield defense and more defensive versatility). But this early in the season, there's an argument to be made that maximizing depth is important enough that you'd option Nava. I sympathize with rjp's point that if you can stagger Sizemore and Victorino's off days so at least one of them plays every game (and assuming JBJ can play pretty much every day), the worst-case scenario is that you have Carp playing a few games in LF or Gomes playing a few games versus righties, neither of which is that awful a consequence (though both would certainly represent a downgrade from Nava). And if any of the outfielders do need to miss significant time, Nava is just a short car ride away.
(All of the above is assuming, of course, that no other team has made any legitimate trade offers for Carp and they would effectively be forced to give him away for peanuts. But I do think that if there is a legit offer (read: the prospect coming back slots into our top 30-40 or so), I'd prefer to trade Carp.)
EDIT: scooped by okin. Great minds think alike.
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Post by raftsox on Apr 11, 2014 14:46:41 GMT -5
I agree that Carp provides basically nothing that Nava doesn't (if you think Carp's 2013 was repeatable, he'd provide some power and upside, but I tend to think their median offensive projections are pretty similar going forward) while Nava provides a fair bit that Carp does not (superior outfield defense and more defensive versatility). But this early in the season, there's an argument to be made that maximizing depth is important enough that you'd option Nava. This is the part that kinda, sorta makes me think (which on a Friday 1.5 hours from beer o'clock isn't high on my list of things to do). Now, I don't necessarily care for ZIPS projections, but I'll use them for the sake of simplicity. Both Carp and Nava were projected for ~400 PAs in 2014. Obviously there were changes with the roster: Sizemore is a full-timer and Napoli was re-signed which would naturally bump their projections down. Nava is projected at about .7 WAR while Carp is projected for 0.6 WAR. Both should be bumped down based on less playing time so lets assume 0.5 and 0.4 respectively. Given that neither projects to be significantly better than replacement level is maintaining depth all that important? The AAA outfield has 3 players in Maier, Brentz and Hassan who could fill-in at comparable value. For me, if it comes down to a situation where you're looking at optioning the much more versatile Nava in order to preserve negligable value then you trade Carp for whatever you can get and use your AAA depth like you're supposed to.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 11, 2014 15:00:00 GMT -5
This is the part that kinda, sorta makes me think (which on a Friday 1.5 hours from beer o'clock isn't high on my list of things to do). Now, I don't necessarily care for ZIPS projections, but I'll use them for the sake of simplicity. Both Carp and Nava were projected for ~400 PAs in 2014. Obviously there were changes with the roster: Sizemore is a full-timer and Napoli was re-signed which would naturally bump their projections down. Nava is projected at about .7 WAR while Carp is projected for 0.6 WAR. Both should be bumped down based on less playing time so lets assume 0.5 and 0.4 respectively. ZiPS is predicting that Nava will provide offensive production below league average. The question is, was 2013 a total fluke or did Nava figure something out? If you believe the former, as ZiPS does, then yes, you should be down on Nava.
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Post by jmei on Apr 11, 2014 15:07:39 GMT -5
Given that neither projects to be significantly better than replacement level is maintaining depth all that important? The AAA outfield has 3 players in Maier, Brentz and Hassan who could fill-in at comparable value. For me, if it comes down to a situation where you're looking at optioning the much more versatile Nava in order to preserve negligable value then you trade Carp for whatever you can get and use your AAA depth like you're supposed to. Well, Brentz and Hassan are both right-handed hitters (Maier isn't in the organization anymore), as are Lavarnway and Snyder, two other 1B/DH backup options. The next best lefty backup bats are Corey Brown (who strikes out a ton, though he's a good defender) and Cecchini (who you probably want to keep down for development reasons and doesn't play the outfield). The idea is that Carp is the best left-handed reserve bat in the organization, and so provides depth value to protect against a scenario where one or both of Napoli/Ortiz are injured. Brentz and Hassan are probably not going to hit as well as Carp will, especially versus RHP. Maybe you think that Carp's marginal advantage over those guys isn't worth keeping him and optioning Nava, and that's a reasonable thing to believe, but it gets into a ton of variables (player performance projections, playing time estimates, injury forecasting, what Carp would fetch in a trade) and makes the whole cost-benefit analysis thing very complicated very quickly. And, as you mention, beer o'clock is beckoning.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 11, 2014 15:31:12 GMT -5
Counting this year, the sox have 3 years of control over him and a $1.4 mil contract. One would think he is of some significant value after the year he had in 2013 but just the year before Seattle released him. And if he is picked up and used his cost will go up the next 2 years.
Our situation is relatively unique but one injury can change everything. They may still send Bradley down for a while, let's face it, but it would just seem more likely that someone like Carp would be traded. Normally we would keep Carp as we seem to thrive on that type of player, who is in early arbitration, but Bradley is clearly forcing the issue.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 11, 2014 17:59:49 GMT -5
Nava shouldn't have to be placed through waivers because he still has an option left and he doesn't meet the Veterans consent clause which requires 5 years if MLB service. Pedroia has options but he's a veteran of 5+ years so can't be sent down. Nava should be able to. Optional assignment waivers are required if a player has options left and less than 5 years of service time but the player is more than three years removed from the date that he first reached the majors. OAW would definitely apply to Nava, but as I discussed above, it's very unlikely that he'd be claimed as there is almost certainly a gentleman's agreement amongst the various front offices to not do so. Are we sure that language is correct? It makes no sense unless it says more that 3 years removed from when he last reached the majors. The 5 year service time is irrelevant if it's based on his major league debut.
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Post by jmei on Apr 11, 2014 18:37:42 GMT -5
Not sure about whether that's the exact language, but that's how the rule works. The 5+ years of service time is a different matter entirely-- it just means that a player with 5+ years of service time has to consent before he can be optioned to the minors. At any rate, because Nava doesn't have 5 years of service time, that rule wouldn't apply to him.
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