Red Sox outfield roster crunch

By the way it is an amazing story. Nava has had by my account four ends to his career only to come back each time. Let's call this a fifth.

Can we stop the harping on this small sample foolishness now that Sizemore's K rate is not at a "career low" (not that it meant anything in a tiny sample in the first place) and roughly in line with his career average? He's also posting one of his worst BB rates.

Keep your eyes on the big picture - Sizemore is on the downside of his career by any measure and even if he comes most of the way 'back' his performance will reflect that. I like the player, I like the story, but this is where the expectation-tempering belongs, not with the top CF rookie with a world of talent and focus.

Just because a sample is not so small as to be meaningless does not mean it's large enough to be indicative. As you point out, the complement of credibility for Sizemore's K rate would be.... what? Who knows? (League average? Worse than league average? How much worse?) Career? Unless we really believe Sizemore has reinvented himself as a better hitter than he was in his prime, then no, worse than career. How much worse? 10% worse? That would be ~ 22%. If his K sample gets 50% weight, combine his actual (18%) with the complement (22%) and you come up with 20%, plus or minus a substantial margin of error. That doesn't tell us nothing, but pretty darn close.

And what about his other indicators, the next one up in sample reliability being walk rate? Not looking so hot so far.

I sympathize with rooting for the underdog, I just don't think it makes sense to grasp at statistical straws because the data just isn't there to build a case yet.

But the SO rate stabilizing just means that we think that his future SO rate is somewhere in the error band where his current observed SO rate sits. It doesn't mean his future SO rate is going to be X. Also, while Sizemore a little more unique, you can't just ignore the past sample. (When reading the BPro article, click through to the Cutty article and read the last few paragraphs, which recognizes these limitations.)

I agree that for Sizemore we just mean to say that we'd be very surprised to see future SO rates significantly higher than ML average given the current observed rate. And you are really just saying that he deserves more playing time to see what will happen. And if that is all we are saying, then I'd agree.

So does this thread stop now that there isn't a crunch?

Severe drop in walk rate and power which are both poor leading indicators. Hard to be good if you don't walk or hit for power.

I think that people need to understand Nava's background and how unusual it is. There are no everyday players with a history similar to Nava's. That he played in AAA never mind the majors is simply amazing.

But there is a reason why a division 2 school wouldn't let him on the field and an indy league team cut him. Daniel Nava doesn't have the tools that other major leaguers have. Guys like will never have the same chances that other players will. It's just a reality.

Nava has managed to play WAY above his tools for a long time. However for any player who does that the music will eventually stop and it can happen quickly. That's why any 75 pa sample size is taken seriously. It could be the end.

As I said before this is the fifth time that Nava's career has been basically over. I would fully expect him to be released, clear waivers, play in a beer league, come back and hit 20 homers for someone at the age of 36.

Why stop predicting? At some point he will be right and can gloat about it... Of course will it be because of his background and tool set or because of his age?

He's not an average to better LF for one and I know you are going to cite some fielding numbers that say otherwise, but remember, fielding numbers for a LF in Fenway are always going to be greatly skewed.

I think that it's possible that he could have a line a little less than you have above, remember he had a very high performance on GBs, but that's with a 25% LD rate and I am not sure he can continue to do that because his swing isn't short and compact like you would want from a LD hitter. As a demonstration of this, take a look at how he did versus above average fastballs inside fastballs of all types after June 1 of last year. LD rate fell on such pitches as a lefty. While it was still pretty good, that's not the best trend. You put his LD rate at 20% I get to .258/.340 with probably less power too. That's not going to get it done as an every day player.

As far as my being wrong, remember we are talking about a guy who was cut by an independent league team and was only given a chance because two other players failed to show. Lots of people throughout Nava's career with much more baseball evaluation experience than I have didn't think he could play.

But in my opinion the baseball gods eventually catch up to your level of talent.

As a final note a friend of mine very publicly shorted a public company and decried the company as a fraud. For seven years the company defied the odds and it's results and stock price remained strong. However he was eventually proven right and the company collapsed under a heep of questions. Being wrong about a baseball player or an investment even several times doesn't mean that the issues you are seeing don't exist or won't eventually translate into results.

As of now, Nava isn't a prospect obviously and he isn't in the majors. Let's table this discussion until he's back in the majors or at least he starts to put together some ABs in the minors. I think as Farrell said he needs to get back to having a short line drive stroke because if he tries to hit for too much power he has to start his swing too early and that's not going to turn out well.

With the caveat that "how good is Daniel Nava?" is very much a legitimate question to ask in a thread devoted to discussing the Red Sox outfield roster crunch, you're right, and I will refrain from any further Nava/moonstone-centric discussion on this thread and ask that others do so as well.