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First Base for 2013 (and Beyond)
nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 24, 2012 19:24:05 GMT -5
Idk if Youk would come back even if Bobby is gone. He cant be too much of a fan of the FO right now.
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Post by elguapo on Sept 24, 2012 19:39:29 GMT -5
I'm a fan of bringing back Youk (I hope we're all on board for firing BV) - though ideally we would pick up a 1B who could hold down the position for a couple years. I like Jerry Sands as a fall-back option.
Napoli's another obvious FA choice, but in that case I'd like to see him catching some.
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Post by jmei on Sept 24, 2012 20:41:55 GMT -5
I think Napoli would fit well at Fenway and in this lineup (which is dying for some RH power), but there's a question whether (a) his defense at 1B is acceptable and (b) whether he can trim his strikeout rate back to the career-low 19.7% he managed in 2011 (this year, he's striking out almost as often as Saltalamacchia). He does have very good discipline and elite power, and even with a career-high in strikeout rate and a low BABIP, his .349 wOBA is well above the league-average first base wOBA of .329 and not that far off from LaRoche's .359.
Of the potential free agents, he's certainly the one who stands out the most as a player who is both a buy-low candidate (and thus cheap) and also a potential solution for the next two or three years. The other buy-low candidates are old (Berkman, Youkilis, Pena) and the other potential long-term candidates are either coming off unrepeatable career seasons (LaRoche) or are just bad (Loney, Kotchman).
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Post by texs31 on Sept 25, 2012 8:04:06 GMT -5
I'd love Youk back here on a short deal.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 25, 2012 8:55:55 GMT -5
How high is Eric Hosmer's stock? Probably still pretty high given his rookie year, but I wonder if its a buy at a discount situation after a down sophomore year.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 25, 2012 9:12:07 GMT -5
How high is Eric Hosmer's stock? Probably still pretty high given his rookie year, but I wonder if its a buy at a discount situation after a down sophomore year. He's a year removed from being a top 10 overall prospect and a very solid rookie year. Even the Royals aren't so incompetent that they'll give up on him after a sophomore slump at age 22.
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Post by thegoo13 on Sept 25, 2012 11:41:11 GMT -5
SEROIOUSLY doubt the Royals would part with Hosmer for anything that wouldn't hurt in a big way. Barnes, X probably to start with. He is a future multi year all-star. Maybe the cornerstone of thier team? If i am wrong about that than I would go all out for him. He is REALLY good, despite his numbers this year.
Aside from that, I am on also on board for Morneau. Hoping he has the concussion issues mostly behind him. Thinking the Twins would like to get rid of him and the contract so the price could possibly be right? He is still a pretty good player IMO.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 25, 2012 14:43:21 GMT -5
SEROIOUSLY doubt the Royals would part with Hosmer for anything that wouldn't hurt in a big way. Barnes, X probably to start with. He is a future multi year all-star. Maybe the cornerstone of thier team? If i am wrong about that than I would go all out for him. He is REALLY good, despite his numbers this year. Aside from that, I am on also on board for Morneau. Hoping he has the concussion issues mostly behind him. Thinking the Twins would like to get rid of him and the contract so the price could possibly be right? He is still a pretty good player IMO. Every GM knows that Barnes or Bogaerts are more valuable than Hosmer. He cant even handle first base defensively, and unless he hits near .300 his lack of power will make him below average offensively for first base. No thanks.
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Post by patrmac04 on Sept 25, 2012 14:52:44 GMT -5
Out of all of these players, what ones would we have to give up a draft pick or prospects for? I'm not going to look into it as I am tight on time... but if we have to lose any prospects besides some B level guys... then forget about it.
Morales, K LAA 1B 124 449 57 124 22 1 21 69 Morneau, J MIN 1B 127 478 59 131 26 2 19 76 Napoli, M TEX C 97 316 47 72 8 2 19 45 Youkilis, K CWS 3B 113 401 68 92 14 2 19 59 Hosmer, E KC 1B 147 520 65 124 22 2 14 61 Smoak, J SEA 1B 122 448 42 94 12 0 16 45 Davis, I NYM 1B 145 482 59 109 23 0 28 83 LaRoche, A WSH 1B 144 534 70 145 31 1 32 98
If we have to give up prospects in any way, then I would be more than happy to stick with in house options. The only thing that I want to see the Sox use prospects for this off season is to bolster the rotation. That is the first and foremost responsibility of Ben.
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 25, 2012 15:12:53 GMT -5
Youkilis, Napoli and LaRoche are UFAs at season's end, though the W.Sox have a 13m option on Youlilis for 2013.
Inasmuch as it appears the Red Sox will finish in the lower third in terms of percentage, they would not forfeit a first round pick if any of these players were offered arbitration and declined.
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Post by patrmac04 on Sept 25, 2012 15:50:27 GMT -5
Youkilis, Napoli and LaRoche are UFAs at season's end, though the W.Sox have a 13m option on Youlilis for 2013. Inasmuch as it appears the Red Sox will finish in the lower third in terms of percentage, they would not forfeit a first round pick if any of these players were offered arbitration and declined. Thank you for looking into that. I think any of those three would make great sense with Gomez as depth for DH and 1B. I might be in the minority, but I would be pretty happy with Gomez at first base with Sands / Loney as depth. Yeah Mauro's defense isn't great, but neither was Millar's. Mauro has shown improvement at the plate at every level and what he is showing with the Sox currently is almost his career line in the minors. .281 .334 .484 .819 He does strike out a lot, but that number has dropped every year for the past four years. He is also pretty patient at the plate and would cost nothing to retain. Loney has excellent defense, but no stick... so between the two I would much rather have Gomez. Loney reminds me of Doug Menkevich and having Millar on the team as well... so I see this as the most likely solution to be honest. If the Sox do go with Gomez, I expect them to sign Loney for short money as a backup plan while Sands marinates or is traded. If they do not go with Gomez, I would hope to see Youks back with the Sox. I miss his at bats and I miss his defense at first base only.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 25, 2012 15:57:49 GMT -5
Every GM knows that Barnes or Bogaerts are more valuable than Hosmer. He cant even handle first base defensively, and unless he hits near .300 his lack of power will make him below average offensively for first base. No thanks. I think a lot of GM's would disagree with you. Hosmer was an elite talent a year ago - people giving up on him now just goes to show how impatient people are with player development. He had an adjustment season at age 22? Most GMs would LOVE to have him on his team. Also, he hit .354 during his age 20 and 21 season in the minors, across three levels, then hit .293 as a 21 year old in the majors. So I think his chances of hitting "near .300" are quite good. I also think he's going to start hitting for more power. He has the physical tools to do so, and hit for very good power in the minors, particularly in 2010. Maybe the Red Sox wouldn't give up Barnes to get him, but that just underscores how bad a fit the two teams would be in a trade. The Sox aren't in a position to give up Barnes, and the Royals are going to need high end pitching in return.
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Post by patrmac04 on Sept 25, 2012 16:09:21 GMT -5
Every GM knows that Barnes or Bogaerts are more valuable than Hosmer. He cant even handle first base defensively, and unless he hits near .300 his lack of power will make him below average offensively for first base. No thanks. I think a lot of GM's would disagree with you. Hosmer was an elite talent a year ago - people giving up on him now just goes to show how impatient people are with player development. He had an adjustment season at age 22? Most GMs would LOVE to have him on his team. Also, he hit .354 during his age 20 and 21 season in the minors, across three levels, then hit .293 as a 21 year old in the majors. So I think his chances of hitting "near .300" are quite good. I also think he's going to start hitting for more power. He has the physical tools to do so, and hit for very good power in the minors, particularly in 2010. Maybe the Red Sox wouldn't give up Barnes to get him, but that just underscores how bad a fit the two teams would be in a trade. The Sox aren't in a position to give up Barnes, and the Royals are going to need high end pitching in return. I would just like to point out that Mauro is hitting with the same line as Hosmer did last year. Mauro 292 BA, 333 OBP, 449 SLG Hosmer (last year) 293 BA, 334 OBP, 465 SLG Yes Hosmer is much younger, but why give up Barnes or any blue chip when we have a very similar player in house. There isn't even a half win difference between the two players and Mauro is outplaying Hosmer now. Play out Mauro's numbers for a season and he has about a 2.3 oWAR. His dWAR projects to be about -4 or so. The highest dWAR last year was 2.3 in the NL and 3.4 in the AL. The highest oWAR in the league last year was 8.3, so that shows offense is much more valuable than defense. If it isn't, then why don't we give out huge contracts to guys like Loney instead of Fielder and Manny? I'll get off my knees for Mauro, but I just would like for people to see the value that we have in house right now at the position. Just for comparison's sake... Adrian Gonzalez is not giving the Dodgers value right now and Mauro is by far outhitting him in the small sample size. Gonzalez w/ Dodgers 255 BA, 308 OBP, 427 SLG Now that's a far cry from his career norms at 293 BA, 370 OBP, 507 SLG... but even those numbers don't show a huge number of wins over Mauro as a starting first baseman offensively. Now I'm not saying that Mauro is anywhere close to Gonzo as an all around player, but he is certainly overlooked by the fans here and undervalued in general.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 25, 2012 17:36:38 GMT -5
I would also give Hosmer the benefit of the doubt this year because his BABIP is a pitifully low .259. If he hits .290/.370/.480 he would be pretty great offensively, but if you factor in his defense he is probably a 3 WAR player. I definitely wouldn't give up Bogaerts or Barnes for him, but Hosmer's power is something that may ultimately define him.
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dcb26
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Post by dcb26 on Sept 25, 2012 19:11:49 GMT -5
I would just like to point out that Mauro is hitting with the same line as Hosmer did last year. Mauro 292 BA, 333 OBP, 449 SLG Hosmer (last year) 293 BA, 334 OBP, 465 SLG ... Adrian Gonzalez is not giving the Dodgers value right now and Mauro is by far outhitting him in the small sample size. Gonzalez w/ Dodgers 255 BA, 308 OBP, 427 SLG Now that's a far cry from his career norms at 293 BA, 370 OBP, 507 SLG... but even those numbers don't show a huge number of wins over Mauro as a starting first baseman offensively. Now I'm not saying that Mauro is anywhere close to Gonzo as an all around player, but he is certainly overlooked by the fans here and undervalued in general. Patrmac04, with all due respect, are you suggesting that Mauro Gomez is, or is nearly, the equal of Eric Hosmer and/or Adrian Gonzalez? I mean, I see your last line there, but I guess I'm not getting what the point is then. This is a 96 PA sample from Gomez, who had a career year in AAA, and for the first time in 7 years of pro ball is playing in the majors, in a platoon situation. I don't see how there's any statistical argument that puts Gomez even close to either of those players
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 26, 2012 7:47:33 GMT -5
Mauro Gomez is a first baseman who needs a .368 BABIP to post a .330 OBP. No thank you. Pass. One first class ticket to El Paso, please.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 26, 2012 8:04:16 GMT -5
For what it's worth, I think Mauro Gomez could have a Brian Daubach type line if he's pressed into full time duty. If the first baseman market is terrible - say LaRoche accepts his option, Morneau ends up wanting to stay in Minny or gets good money elsewhere, etc - then they could certainly do worse.
It's an unfair comparison with Hosmer, though. When Gomez was Hosmer's age, he had basically the same numbers Hosmer did - a few more singles, a few less walks - except for that he did it in the Midwest League. People seem to love to rush prospects to the majors, then love to write them off when they struggle. Most people don't have the career arc of Mike Trout or Mel Ott. I still project Hosmer as an All-Star caliber player.
-The first year Mo Vaughn made the Red Sox out of Spring Training was 1992, after he'd had a pretty solid second half with the major league club in '91. Vaughn hit .234/.326/.400 and spent time back at Pawtucket. -Justin Morneau, in his first season making the Twins out of Spring Training, hit .239/.304/.437. That was 2005. In 2006, he won the MVP award (sort of by accident, but still.) -Derrek Lee, in his first full season, hit .233/.318/.414. He wasn't quite as good as Vaughn and Morneau at their peaks, but he was consistently good for a .270/.370/.500 line, and had that monster '05 season.
These are a few recent examples of top prospects who came up and hit a bump in the road and then had all-star caliber careers.
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Post by SlugLife on Sept 26, 2012 11:09:50 GMT -5
There is a real lack of depth at the first base position in baseball right now, both in the majors and in the high minors. Even the crop of above average players like Goldschmidt, Freeman or Trumbo are all pre-arbitration eligible and would not be available without giving up elite minor league talent.
I think the best solution is to find a stopgap/platoon/rental trade for 2013 and see where Bogaerts is next fall. If Xander really projects as an elite third baseman at the major league level, you can always move Middlebrooks to first where he has the size (6'4'') and offensive ability to be an above average first baseman on both sides of the game.
And if Bogaerts shows that he can stick at shortstop and outperform Iglesias you're in a better position to commit talent or treasure to a long-term solution at first, when there may be a different trade landscape.
I say bring Gomez to camp along with the likes of Xavier Nady/Carlos Pena/James Loney/Daric Barton/Lyle Overbay, and let things play out. Or make a trade for a guy on a one year contract like Morneau or Kendrys Morales if the price is right. It just doesn't make sense to me to pay the freight on a guy like Trumbo or Eric Hosmer right now if Xander Bogaerts at third will give you (mostly) comparable talent at first for free next winter in the form of Mr. Middlebrooks.
I know that conventional wisdom says that you don't move quality defenders down the defensive spectrum, but right now I don't see anyone in baseball (who would not require elite talent to acquire) who could significantly outperform an emerging and improving Will Middlebrooks at first base.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 26, 2012 11:20:35 GMT -5
There is a real lack of depth at the first base position in baseball right now, both in the majors and in the high minors. Even the crop of above average players like Goldschmidt, Freeman or Trumbo are all pre-arbitration eligible and would not be available without giving up elite minor league talent. I think the best solution is to find a stopgap/platoon/rental trade for 2013 and see where Bogaerts is next fall. If Xander really projects as an elite third baseman at the major league level, you can always move Middlebrooks to first where he has the size (6'4'') and offensive ability to be an above average first baseman on both sides of the game. And if Bogaerts shows that he can stick at shortstop and outperform Iglesias you're in a better position to commit talent or treasure to a long-term solution at first, when there may be a different trade landscape. I say bring Gomez to camp along with the likes of Xavier Nady/Carlos Pena/James Loney/Daric Barton/Lyle Overbay, and let things play out. Or make a trade for a guy on a one year contract like Morneau or Kendrys Morales if the price is right. It just doesn't make sense to me to pay the freight on a guy like Trumbo or Eric Hosmer right now if Xander Bogaerts at third will give you (mostly) comparable talent at first for free next winter in the form of Mr. Middlebrooks. I know that conventional wisdom says that you don't move quality defenders down the defensive spectrum, but right now I don't see anyone in baseball (who would not require elite talent to acquire) who could significantly outperform an emerging and improving Will Middlebrooks at first base. Goldy, Freeman, and Trumbo are all far from elite too. First base isnt quite as deep as it used to be as you said. As for Middlebrooks, he will not be above average for a 1B unless he walks more often. He probably could be great there defensively though, as he is pretty good at 3B already.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 26, 2012 13:39:50 GMT -5
Middlebrooks' best defensive asset is his arm. Putting him at first base makes no sense.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 26, 2012 17:20:14 GMT -5
Why not leave Middlebrooks, who projects to be an above average third baseman, at third and project Xander to first?
Based on Xander's skill set he is unlikely to be as good a third baseman as Middlebrooks. Plus, he's still in the minors and can be more easily moved to learn a new position without hurting the big league team in the process.
Who knows - Xander may develop into a gold glove 1st baseman like Pujols (who started his MLB career at 3B).
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Post by jioh on Sept 26, 2012 21:14:00 GMT -5
Yeah, Xander should be moved to 1b--about 10-15 years from now.
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Post by dewey1972 on Sept 26, 2012 22:04:25 GMT -5
I wonder how much Brandon Belt would cost. The Giants seem to have finally wised up to the fact that he's their best first baseman, but the way they've jerked him around for the last two years makes me think they don't value him enough. He's been a decent hitter this year (117 wRC+), and that's with a huge drop in power. Given that he hit for power at every minor league stop AND in his time in the majors last year, it seems likely that his power numbers will rebound a bit. He won't be eligible for arbitration until at least after next year (someone with better understanding of the nuances of service time would need to tell me whether it wouldn't be until after 2014). Anyone else have any thoughts on Belt?
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Post by jdb on Sept 27, 2012 9:36:44 GMT -5
I don't think the Royals will get rid of Hosmer but I bet one of Butler or Gordon gets traded for SP. Butlers D wasnt awful in 09-10 with a larger sample size but Fangraphs has it well below average the past two seasons. I like him as a hitter but I don't think it's worth giving up a Doubront, Rubby, Barnes or Webster when Napoli is out there for only cash.
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Post by longgone24 on Sept 27, 2012 9:52:33 GMT -5
You might want to add a couple of prospects that seem ML ready. but are blocked @ the ML level like Matt Adams, and Neftali Soto.
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