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Post by mgoetze on May 3, 2014 11:50:53 GMT -5
Stephen Drew isn't the offensive solution, either. He hit for a 109 wRC+ last year, and various projection systems expect him to regress somewhat in 2014 due to an elevated 2013 BABIP and age (Oliver has him at a 90 wRC+, for instance). Drew is much better defensively and, as a lefty, offers better L/R lineup balance, but Xander is almost certainly a better hitter this year and especially over the next three or four years. I've always said if they sign Drew it should be a Drew/WMB platoon, with WMB also getting some time at 1B, 2B and Rogers Center. OK the Rogers Center bit is new, I wasn't saying that all along.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 3, 2014 12:02:46 GMT -5
Stats on his summary show 100 ab and 27 ks. Regardless, at this stage it can change quickly. Not saying he will not be fine, just not smart enough about this to say otherwise, but most everything suggests improvement will come. Little too early to say though "Xander is almost certainly a better hitter this year". This year is only one month. Wait until it is over to say this with some kind of authority. But maybe "over the next three or four years," if hits as promised. You misinterpret or read into what I say. Did not say he was the problem but rather if he is the 3rd best hitter, it ain't saying much right now about his hitting. (You are jumping ahead of yourself. BTW Drew spent some time last recovering from minor injuries, which IMHO affected his hitting, and is his defense significantly better than Xander to the point that it could be a draw at short between them. But that is all history. ) Plate appearances are the proper number to use when calculating strikeout rate. ABs don't count walks (among other things), which is hardly fair. Or save yourself the trouble of doing math and just check Fangraphs.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 3, 2014 12:09:55 GMT -5
He may be this high, but if so, it does not speak well of their hitting attack. Right now his strength is walking. He has yet to hit stride with any power and right now strikes out 27% of PA. Of course, this all can change given his potential and minor league career, but if it doesn't, he projects to hit at or below what Drew would hit, minus the defense. Xander's strikeout rate this year is 22.7% (not 27%), which is totally acceptable for a guy who has easy plus power potential and the sort of line-drive skills to maintain an above-average BABIP. Even without the power, he's put up a 121 wRC+, which is fifth best in baseball amongst shortstops and ranks second amongst Red Sox starters. He is not the problem with the Red Sox offense. Stephen Drew isn't the offensive solution, either. He hit for a 109 wRC+ last year, and various projection systems expect him to regress somewhat in 2014 due to an elevated 2013 BABIP and age (Oliver has him at a 90 wRC+, for instance). Drew is much better defensively and, as a lefty, offers better L/R lineup balance, but Xander is almost certainly a better hitter this year and especially over the next three or four years. Amen! Couldn't have said it better myself.
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Post by Guidas on May 3, 2014 12:11:32 GMT -5
Another solid outing from clay buchholz. It wouldn't even surprise me if he was the ace of this staff again by years end. Seconded.
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Post by jmei on May 3, 2014 12:16:00 GMT -5
Little too early to say though "Xander is almost certainly a better hitter this year". This year is only one month. Wait until it is over to say this with some kind of authority. Here is how they are projected to hit by the popular projection systems: ZiPS Bogaerts: .267/.331/.429, .334 wOBA Drew: .239/.312/.393, .310 wOBA Steamer Bogaerts: .263/.324/.416, .325 wOBA Drew: .233/.314/.376, .305 wOBA Oliver Bogaerts: .269/.343/.436, .341 wOBA Drew: .235/.312/.385, .307 wOBA Even if you give a significant bump to Drew, because automatic projection systems don't take injuries into account, Bogaerts probably comes out ahead offensively. You're right that it's not certain, but nothing about projections are, and this is one that I'm pretty confident about. Now, as I mentioned in my first post, Drew's defense is good enough (and Xander's is shakey enough) to significantly narrow the gap between them, if not overcome it entirely. Signing Drew and moving to a Drew/Xander versus RHP and Xander/WMB versus LHP platoon makes the team better and is something I've advocated pretty much all offseason (and still kind of think should be done, though I've softened somewhat on that stance as time has gone on). But the reason that's true is not because Bogaerts is a vastly inferior player when compared to Drew. It's because Drew destroys RHP, while Middlebrooks struggles against them, and so they'd form an ideal platoon that would cost the Red Sox nothing but cash and a little development time. But that's a matter for the much-maligned Drew thread.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on May 3, 2014 12:21:16 GMT -5
GREAT news on Buchholz. If the rotation solidifies, as it looks like it might soon, we should be able to start winning 2 out of 3 games a series regularly again. Which puts the Sox right where they need to be.
Slotting Xander in front of Ortiz is a major plus for this team in my opinion. They will be much more likely to pitch to him now, and he knows it. If they do walk him it sets up Ortiz and Napoli to drive him in. He wasn't driving in runners well so in some ways this should even remove some of the pressure on him. And we now might be seeing him do more damage with the bat if they leave him there.
But we probably will see Victorino back there the very next game right! And deservedly so. In such a case I'd slot Xander in the 3 slot and make Ortiz to #4.
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Post by mgoetze on May 3, 2014 12:35:58 GMT -5
Slotting Xander in front of Ortiz is a major plus for this team in my opinion. They will be much more likely to pitch to him now, and he knows it. You need to stop spouting this ****, lavarnwayguy. The concept of "lineup protection" was soundly refuted by Tango, et al in 2006. And Joey Votto also says it is bull****. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/joey-votto-and-protection-up-front/
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Post by Don Caballero on May 3, 2014 12:38:56 GMT -5
Oh no, someone posted something in fangraphs. It must be true!
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Post by jmei on May 3, 2014 12:43:17 GMT -5
Slotting Xander in front of Ortiz is a major plus for this team in my opinion. They will be much more likely to pitch to him now, and he knows it. You need to stop spouting this ****, lavarnwayguy. The concept of "lineup protection" was soundly refuted by Tango, et al in 2006. And Joey Votto also says it is bull****. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/joey-votto-and-protection-up-front/This is way, way over-the-top hostile. You have to be able to disagree with someone without being such a jerk. Cut it out, please.
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Post by mgoetze on May 3, 2014 12:50:23 GMT -5
Let's see if they IBB Napoli now...
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Post by jmei on May 3, 2014 12:54:03 GMT -5
Sigh, RISP.
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Post by mgoetze on May 3, 2014 12:54:55 GMT -5
Noone told Gomes about this.
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Post by jmei on May 3, 2014 12:55:02 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on May 3, 2014 12:57:02 GMT -5
GOMES!!
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Post by Guidas on May 3, 2014 13:00:28 GMT -5
Oh no, someone posted something in fangraphs. It must be true! True. Then again, lotta data say you should bat your best hitter in the two-hole. Not that Xander's there yet but not a bad spot for him.
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Post by semperfisox on May 3, 2014 13:02:08 GMT -5
Cant wait to see Xander hitting for more power as the weather heats up.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 3, 2014 13:11:23 GMT -5
Looks like it's all about the three true outcomes for Millone today.
Add: I believe it's official, Pedroia is heating up.
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Post by mgoetze on May 3, 2014 13:31:38 GMT -5
CSN was just showing an Infographic who had the most HRs in a Red Sox uniform... downright prophetic.
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Post by jmei on May 3, 2014 13:32:39 GMT -5
Would love to see Papi go on one of his hot streaks.
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Post by mgoetze on May 3, 2014 13:47:30 GMT -5
Would love to see Lester maintain this 20 K/9 rate.
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Post by jmei on May 3, 2014 14:17:29 GMT -5
Would love to see Lester maintain this 20 K/9 rate. ..and then he goes out and does just that. Lester has just been flat-out dealing this afternoon.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 3, 2014 14:17:30 GMT -5
Would love to see Lester maintain this 20 K/9 rate. He's been very good in just about every game he's pitched this year. Hope this gives people an even better feeling for how little the won-loss record can reflect a pitcher's actual performance. With support, that record could easily be turned around.
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Post by mattpicard on May 3, 2014 14:29:08 GMT -5
That's the real reason why Sizemore is in CF over Bradley, right?
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Post by mgoetze on May 3, 2014 14:29:19 GMT -5
Sizemore - CF - Oh boy
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Post by wskeleton76 on May 3, 2014 14:36:05 GMT -5
Fantastic performance by Lester.
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