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Battle for top 11 (protected) draft picks in 2015 draft
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Post by jmei on Jun 24, 2014 12:46:04 GMT -5
That's not entirely true-- Fangraphs projection mode uses averaged Steamer/ZiPS rest-of-the-season projections, which incorporates data from the first few months of 2014 (but still heavily regresses them). Those RoS projections are generally much more predictive than just using 2014 season to date stats. But yeah, either way, the odds are slim enough that I'm just about ready to punt the season, especially if they play sub-.500 ball the rest of this road trip.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 25, 2014 4:05:32 GMT -5
According to ESPN, Jerry DiPoto (Angels GM) is looking for a left handed reliever and a closer from outside the organization. Too bad the Angels have the worst farm in baseball.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 25, 2014 4:20:01 GMT -5
According to ESPN, Jerry DiPoto (Angels GM) is looking for a left handed reliever and a closer from outside the organization. Too bad the Angels have the worst farm in baseball. For real. That is a team, more than any othe emulating the NY Yankees and playing only for 1 year after the other and forgetting about the future each season. It's been going on for too long. How Eddie Bane puts up with it is lunacy, thought he was too good for that mess. Take a look at guys on the LA 40 man and who jumps out for say Uehara, Miller? It's sickening.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 26, 2014 6:39:37 GMT -5
If the season ended right now:
1. TBR ---- 2. ARI -0.5 3. HOU -1.5 (four game losing streak) 4. CHC -2.0 5. SDO -2.5 6. COL -4.0 7. CWS -4.5 8. PHI -4.5 9. TEX -4.5 (seven game losing streak) 10. BOS -4.5 10. NYM -5.0 12. MIN -6.0 13. CLE -7.0
(tiebreaker order of the above teams is HOU, CWS, CHC, MIN, PHI, COL, NYM, SDO, ARI, TBR, TEX, CLE, BOS)
4 games separate the #14 pick from the #25 pick.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 28, 2014 0:38:29 GMT -5
If the season ended right now:
1. TBR ---- 2. ARI -1.0 3. SDO -2.0 4. HOU -2.5 5. CHC -3.0 6. COL -3.0 7. NYM -4.0 8. BOS -4.0 9. CWS -4.5 10. PHI -4.5 11. TEX -4.5 12. MIN -5.0 (four game losing streak) 13. CLE -6.5 14. MIA -7.0
(tiebreaker order of the above teams is HOU, MIA, CWS, CHC, MIN, PHI, COL, NYM, SDO, ARI, TBR, TEX, CLE, BOS)
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 29, 2014 23:07:37 GMT -5
If the season ended right now, we would have a new #1 picker (ARI) for the first time in almost a month and the Red Sox would be out of the top ten:
1. ARI ---- 2. TBR ---- 3. CHC -1.0 4. SDO -1.0 5. HOU -1.5 6. PHI -2.0 (four game losing streak) 7. COL -2.0 8. NYM -3.0 9. TEX -3.5 10. MIN -4.0 11. BOS -4.0 12. CWS -4.5 13. MIA -5.0 (four game losing streak) 14. CLE -5.5
(tiebreaker order of the above teams is HOU, MIA, CWS, CHC, MIN, PHI, COL, NYM, SDO, ARI, TBR, TEX, CLE, BOS)
No team in baseball is sub-.400.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 1, 2014 23:42:01 GMT -5
If the season ended right now, the Red Sox would be back in the top ten:
1. ARI ---- 2. HOU -1.0 3. COL -1.5 4. TBR -1.5 (four game winning streak) 5. PHI -2.0 (five game losing streak) 6. CHC -2.5 7. NYM -2.5 8. SDO -2.5 (assuming Tues win) 9. TEX -3.0 10. BOS -3.5 11. CWS -4.0 12. MIN -4.5 13. CLE -5.5 14. MIA -6.0
(tiebreaker order of the above teams is HOU, MIA, CWS, CHC, MIN, PHI, COL, NYM, SDO, ARI, TBR, TEX, CLE, BOS)
Four games separate the bottom 11 teams. No team in baseball is sub-.400.
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Post by mredsox89 on Jul 2, 2014 0:48:37 GMT -5
When I see how poorly the Sox are playing, then see that they're still barely in the bottom 10, I'm just baffled. Obviously there's not a huge games difference from 1-10 at the moment, but nine teams playing worse than the current club in Boston, crazy
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Post by ibsmith85 on Jul 2, 2014 7:50:49 GMT -5
When I see how poorly the Sox are playing, then see that they're still barely in the bottom 10, I'm just baffled. Obviously there's not a huge games difference from 1-10 at the moment, but nine teams playing worse than the current club in Boston, crazy Especially considering that not even one team is below a .400 W%
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 6, 2014 20:17:50 GMT -5
If the season ended right now, Houston would be back in the top spot, with Texas and Philly also in the top five and Tampa would be out of the top ten:
1. HOU ---- (seven game losing streak) 2. ARI -1.0 3. COL -1.5 4. PHI -2.0 (five game losing streak) 5. TEX -3.0 6. CHC -4.0 7. NYM -4.0 8. SDO -4.0 9. BOS -4.0 10. MIN -4.5 11. TBR -4.5 12. CWS -6.5 13. MIA -8.0 14. CLE -8.5
(tiebreaker order of the above teams is HOU, MIA, CWS, CHC, MIN, PHI, COL, NYM, SDO, ARI, TBR, TEX, CLE, BOS)
4.5 games separate the bottom 11 teams. No team in baseball is sub-.400.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 7, 2014 8:53:10 GMT -5
This thread is the best part about losing.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 7, 2014 8:58:12 GMT -5
This thread is the best part about losing. Who needs a top end int'l signee next year, when you have a Top 10 pick?
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Post by burythehammer on Jul 8, 2014 5:04:40 GMT -5
"Go Downhill for Dazmon"
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Post by zil on Jul 8, 2014 9:40:05 GMT -5
Is that Damon's evil twin from the phantom zone?
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 8, 2014 10:05:22 GMT -5
Is that Damon's evil twin from the phantom zone? Google is your friend. Dazmon Cameron (Mike's kid) is a potential top-five pick in next year's draft.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 8, 2014 21:06:45 GMT -5
FWIW, Keith Law saying this draft looks weaker than this past year's draft, which was not stellar.
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Post by mjammz on Jul 8, 2014 21:34:23 GMT -5
FWIW, Keith Law saying this draft looks weaker than this past year's draft, which was not stellar. They said it last year at this time too and it turned out pretty well. A bunch of High School kids will emerge, it will end up being a normal draft.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 8, 2014 21:49:12 GMT -5
FWIW, Keith Law saying this draft looks weaker than this past year's draft, which was not stellar. They said it last year at this time too and it turned out pretty well. A bunch of High School kids will emerge, it will end up being a normal draft. Well this year was comparatively pretty weak when assessed against the last 10 years. I think the experts (Law, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus) felt that only two of those previous ten were comparable or worse.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 8, 2014 22:05:21 GMT -5
They said it last year at this time too and it turned out pretty well. A bunch of High School kids will emerge, it will end up being a normal draft. Well this year was comparatively pretty weak when assessed against the last 10 years. I think the experts (Law, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus) felt that only two of those previous ten were comparable or worse. I know that looking back at the past four, at least, 2011 was very strong, the last two years were seen as quite weak, and then this year was seen as a little better than the last two, but not as good as they'd hoped it would be at this time last year. But that said, the strength of a given year's draft is as good as your scouting department. As good as 2011 was, the best pick in the whole thing might wind up being Mookie Betts in the fifth round. And so on. I wouldn't worry about it quite yet. Look at this year's draft - at this time last year Michael Kopech was listed as sitting 88-92 on everyone's scouting report, while Carlos Rodon was the most sure-thing top pick since Strasburg.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 9, 2014 0:03:37 GMT -5
If the season ended right now:
1. HOU ---- 2. ARI ---- 3. COL -0.5 4. TEX -1.0 5. CHC -1.5 (five game losing streak) 6. PHI -2.0 7. BOS -2.0 (four game losing streak) 8. SDO -3.0 9. MIN -3.5 10. TBR -3.5 11. NYM -4.0 *** 12. CWS -6.5 13. MIA -7.0 14. CLE -7.5
(tiebreaker order of the above teams is HOU, MIA, CWS, CHC, MIN, PHI, COL, NYM, SDO, ARI, TBR, TEX, CLE, BOS)
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Post by marrcus on Jul 9, 2014 0:55:44 GMT -5
The odd thing here is no matter who they may sell off I doubt it will affect the record much. They are going to be bad but without a half-dozen vet's will they be #1-5 bad? Probably not. If the starting pitching remains ok, they hit a little, Ortiz continues healthy, they should win 70+ and stay away from the Bobby V futility 69w mark.
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Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Jul 9, 2014 1:24:05 GMT -5
The odd thing here is no matter who they may sell off I doubt it will affect the record much. They are going to be bad but without a half-dozen vet's will they be #1-5 bad? Probably not. If the starting pitching remains ok, they hit a little, Ortiz continues healthy, they should win 70+ and stay away from the Bobby V futility 69w mark. I hope not. Being in the middle of the pack is the worst because your not good enough to make the playoffs but at the same time your not bad enough to get a protected pick. If we were to tank for the season, I would rather suck as much as I can without trading Xander, Dustin, or David just to get a high draft pick.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jul 9, 2014 8:34:10 GMT -5
The odd thing here is no matter who they may sell off I doubt it will affect the record much. They are going to be bad but without a half-dozen vet's will they be #1-5 bad? Probably not. If the starting pitching remains ok, they hit a little, Ortiz continues healthy, they should win 70+ and stay away from the Bobby V futility 69w mark. I hope not. Being in the middle of the pack is the worst because your not good enough to make the playoffs but at the same time your not bad enough to get a protected pick. If we were to tank for the season, I would rather suck as much as I can without trading Xander, Dustin, or David just to get a high draft pick. Yeah the only saving grace from being this bad is to get a protected 1st rounder out of this. And then......we sign a couple of free agents and lose just our 2nd and 3rd. Not sure who will be available worth such a HIGH 2nd rounder. Maybe nobody (sigh).
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 9, 2014 17:15:50 GMT -5
This thread is the best part about losing. Who needs a top end int'l signee next year, when you have a Top 10 pick? Yeah and if you have $6m in international bonus money then surely you'll be able scrounge up 20 guys willing to take a $300k bonus somewhere, right? Now, about that second DSL team ...
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alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 619
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Post by alnipper on Jul 10, 2014 13:27:14 GMT -5
PCT GB Texas .419 -- Arizona .419 -- Houston .419 -- Cubs .422 .5 Colorado .424 .5 Philadelphia .440 2 San Diego .440 2 Boston .440 2 Tampa Bay .447 2.5 Minnesota .456 3
As you can see we are in the 8th spot as of today, and could sign any free agent player, without losing a 1st round draft pick after the season.
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