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Post by michael on Jul 1, 2014 11:40:55 GMT -5
We should rename this thread Brock Holt. That's Brock Wyatt Holt, sir.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jul 18, 2014 12:32:34 GMT -5
Funny, Holt is out wRC+ing Headley this year by 42 points. 129-87 Even mentioning Pedro Ciriaco in the same post should be a crime. Holt is a better player but they do have parallels. Like Ciriaco he is having a season way over his head and way over anything he's ever done before. Like Ciriaco he's one of the few bright lights on a losing team. If you really think that Holt can sustain being a 30% better hitter than the rest of the league with a .35 BB/K you should be arrested. The real difference is that Ciraco was a fringe major league player who played like a major league regular for a time while Holt is a fringe regular who is playing like an all-star. Like Ciraco Holt is going to regress to the player he really is and that player doesn't deserve to be handed a major league job in 2015. I think there is a much better chance that Headley returns to who he was in 2011 and 2012 than Holt sustains anywhere close to a 130 W/RC+
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 18, 2014 12:45:38 GMT -5
Funny, Holt is out wRC+ing Headley this year by 42 points. 129-87 Even mentioning Pedro Ciriaco in the same post should be a crime. Holt is a better player but they do have parallels. Like Ciriaco he is having a season way over his head and way over anything he's ever done before. Like Ciriaco he's one of the few bright lights on a losing team. If you really think that Holt can sustain being a 30% better hitter than the rest of the league with a .35 BB/K you should be arrested. I think there is a much better chance that Headley returns to who he was in 2011 and 2012 than Holt sustains anywhere close to a 130 W/RC+ Look at it this way. If Holt has a 100 wRC+ he's quite valuable to any team. Holt can hit lefties and off speed too. There is literally no comparison to Ciriaco who as the bright spot for 2012 had a 87 wRC+ like Headley this year. Not sure I want to pay for Headley, whose agent will probably be marketing him as the 30 HR guy who needs to get away from Petco.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 18, 2014 13:25:02 GMT -5
Headley blows end of analysis
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Post by moonstone2 on Jul 18, 2014 14:00:59 GMT -5
This is a common mental error.
You haven't presented any basis for his ability to do this. The only reason I can see that you are using 30% is because it seems large. But the national financial crisis should have taught us that even though a number seems large and unprecedented doesn't mean it's large enough. I can't tell you how many arguments I read telling us that if home prices fell 5%, an unprecedented amount, we'd be fine. Of course that number ended up being very very low.
Before this year Holt was thought of as a fringe regular at 2B at best. Nothing has happened this year to change my mind about that.
As for Headley he's been awful this year and no matter how his agent markets him he's not going to get more than an incentive laden make good contract. There is no doubting his recent track record which for over 1100 PAs was outstanding.
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Post by elguapo on Jul 18, 2014 14:02:11 GMT -5
Like Ciraco Holt is going to regress to the player he really is and that player doesn't deserve to be handed a major league job in 2015. Of course he deserves to be handed a major league job! He's proven he can hit and field and he has a good track record, 2013 aside, suggesting continued success at a reasonable level. It's most likely to be a super-utility job, but that is more of a distinction, since he would be expected to get >400 plate appearances, and not a negative by any means.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jul 18, 2014 14:06:54 GMT -5
Like Ciraco Holt is going to regress to the player he really is and that player doesn't deserve to be handed a major league job in 2015. Of course he deserves to be handed a major league job! He's proven he can hit and field and he has a good track record, 2013 aside, suggesting continued success at a reasonable level. It's most likely to be a super-utility job, but that is more of a distinction, since he would be expected to get >400 plate appearances, and not a negative by any means. A regular major league job. I think that was implied. I agree he can help a major league team.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jul 18, 2014 14:11:38 GMT -5
Headley blows end of analysis Seriously? That's all you can bring to the table?
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 18, 2014 14:48:14 GMT -5
This is a common mental error. You haven't presented any basis for his ability to do this. The only reason I can see that you are using 30% is because it seems large. But the national financial crisis should have taught us that even though a number seems large and unprecedented doesn't mean it's large enough. I can't tell you how many arguments I read telling us that if home prices fell 5%, an unprecedented amount, we'd be fine. Of course that number ended up being very very low. Before this year Holt was thought of as a fringe regular at 2B at best. Nothing has happened this year to change my mind about that. As for Headley he's been awful this year and no matter how his agent markets him he's not going to get more than an incentive laden make good contract. There is no doubting his recent track record which for over 1100 PAs was outstanding. You haven't presented any basis for his inability to do this. We don't predict the future well (positively or negatively) with small sample sizes. I don't think the financial markets have much of a correlation to baseball. Holt was thought of as a fringe 2b at best because he couldn't even hit for doubles power. He's showing that he can now. His minor league profile shows he should be able to hit for average other than 2013. He doesn't walk a lot, but enough so he's not a disaster in OBP when he's not hitting. If he cuts his K-rate, he can afford a drop in his BABIP and still hit pretty well. And the fielding he has shown anywhere on the field doesn't look like a fluke. Can you possibly imagine how awful this season would be without him?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 18, 2014 15:09:06 GMT -5
He's only played well in the outfield defensively. He can play everywhere but not necessarily well. If he was a 3B and posted an 100 wRC+ he'd probably have be a detriment to a team.
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Post by bcpatsox18 on Jul 18, 2014 15:18:48 GMT -5
"This is a common mental error. You haven't presented any basis for his ability to do this. The only reason I can see that you are using 30% is because it seems large. But the national financial crisis should have taught us that even though a number seems large and unprecedented doesn't mean it's large enough. I can't tell you how many arguments I read telling us that if home prices fell 5%, an unprecedented amount, we'd be fine. Of course that number ended up being very very low. Before this year Holt was thought of as a fringe regular at 2B at best. Nothing has happened this year to change my mind about that.As for Headley he's been awful this year and no matter how his agent markets him he's not going to get more than an incentive laden make good contract. There is no doubting his recent track record which for over 1100 PAs was outstanding. " If Holt batting .327 over an extended period of time, while playing every position other than pitcher and catcher, hasn't done anything at all to change your mind about him, you need to start reevaluating how you look at players. I have no illusions he keeps this up, but throughout the minors he hit for a good average, and this year is proving he can do it at the major league level. Players out-play their ceilings all the time- how a player should be thought of should be a fluid process, not a stagnant one. Dustin Pedroia is a great example of a guy out-playing what he "was thought of," he was thought of as a solid starting second basemen, and yet turned into an MVP. Brock Holt may never be an all star player, but to say he has no chance of being a starting caliber player just because of evaluations prior to this year is ludicrous
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Post by moonstone2 on Jul 18, 2014 15:33:54 GMT -5
You are once again making a mental error. Assuming small drops in BABIP when there is no evidence that the dropoff will be small. Further why would you assume that The ratio of BB/K tends to correlate very well with batting average. A .35 BB/K is very low. If he's only walking 7% of the time or so to have even a .320 OBP he's going to have to hit .270 or so. Even that is tough to do, though not impossible, with a BB/K that low. He'd need a .324 BABIP just to do that. He's not a big power hitter either. A team without resources might be wise to give Holt a lot of ABs at 2B and 3B and see how he does. But the Red Sox have the resources to take chances on veterans and already has two 2B who are likely better than he is. They should not be counting on Brock Holt as a regular next year and we should not be discussing Brock Holt in a thread about Sean Coyle other than to say that their names have the same amount of syllables. Being the only player who has done better than expected on a team that has been a major dissapointment doesn't impress me. Read more: forum.soxprospects.com/thread/1805/sean-coyle-discussion?page=5&scrollTo=94550#ixzz37r20u8KM
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Post by moonstone2 on Jul 18, 2014 15:37:34 GMT -5
Okay pet peeve. I have explained my position pretty well and why I think that his .327 batting average is a mirage. I like the way I evaluate players just fine and I don't think I need to do anything but thank you for your unwelcome advice.
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Post by jmei on Jul 18, 2014 15:40:16 GMT -5
The ratio of BB/K tends to correlate very well with batting average. This is not true, by the way. While strikeout rate is a strong predictor of batting average (for obvious reasons), walk rate is not. See this link and its comments-- BB/K only explains 2.8% of the variation in year-to-year batting average.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 18, 2014 15:55:56 GMT -5
You are once again making a mental error. Assuming small drops in BABIP when there is no evidence that the dropoff will be small. Further why would you assume that The ratio of BB/K tends to correlate very well with batting average. A .35 BB/K is very low. If he's only walking 7% of the time or so to have even a .320 OBP he's going to have to hit .270 or so. Even that is tough to do, though not impossible, with a BB/K that low. He'd need a .324 BABIP just to do that. He's not a big power hitter either. A team without resources might be wise to give Holt a lot of ABs at 2B and 3B and see how he does. But the Red Sox have the resources to take chances on veterans and already has two 2B who are likely better than he is. They should not be counting on Brock Holt as a regular next year and we should not be discussing Brock Holt in a thread about Sean Coyle other than to say that their names have the same amount of syllables. Being the only player who has done better than expected on a team that has been a major dissapointment doesn't impress me. There's no evidence that there that there will be a tomorrow. Zips and Steamer predict his BABIP will be higher than .324 How many guys with above average speed, a 26.6% LD rate and an IFFB rate of 6.0% have a BABIP lower than that?
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Post by bcpatsox18 on Jul 18, 2014 18:59:13 GMT -5
Okay pet peeve. I have explained my position pretty well and why I think that his .327 batting average is a mirage. I like the way I evaluate players just fine and I don't think I need to do anything but thank you for your unwelcome advice. Do not insult me; it is okay to disagree, that's what these forums are for. When you start insulting because people disagree with your statements, thats when you start looking uneducated and ignorant. Which you do
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Post by jmei on Jul 18, 2014 19:06:25 GMT -5
Simmer down now. We have a throwndown forum for these things; keep em off the main boards.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 19, 2014 7:39:06 GMT -5
Victorino is supposed to come back today. I'd assume he's gonna play RF. Holt has to stay at leadoff? Where do we play him?
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 19, 2014 9:14:35 GMT -5
Victorino is supposed to come back today. I'd assume he's gonna play RF. Holt has to stay at leadoff? Where do we play him? This is where it starts to get fun.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 19, 2014 9:43:08 GMT -5
Victorino is supposed to come back today. I'd assume he's gonna play RF. Holt has to stay at leadoff? Where do we play him? CF obviously. Get the guy who wasn't even good enough to hit ahead of David Ross against a RHP out of the lineup.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 19, 2014 11:00:05 GMT -5
Victorino is supposed to come back today. I'd assume he's gonna play RF. Holt has to stay at leadoff? Where do we play him? CF obviously. Get the guy who wasn't even good enough to hit ahead of David Ross against a RHP out of the lineup. I'd play Bradley in CF against righties and Victorino there against lefties. I'd play Holt in LF. Victorino in right who is going to need days off. Nava, Gomes and Carp ready to pinch-hit at any key moment. Sucks for Nava and Gomes. But, until the Brockstar cools off. I'd prob do it like that.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 19, 2014 12:46:37 GMT -5
Holt can sustain something close to this if he cuts his Ks down to what they were in the minors. If not his K/BB and BABIP will relegate him to a utility role.
Headley is a big change of scenery candidate. He wouldn't be overly expensive in trade or free agency. He reminds me somewhat of Beltre when we signed him. Beltre is a better player, but Headley has good upside still and is worth the risk. Whatever team lands him will probably have made a good move. I think he'd hit much better in our division.
I would be content with both of them on the roster. I don't really see the need to compare.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 19, 2014 13:03:34 GMT -5
It's getting pretty clear the front office and manager view Xander as a 3b. No room for Headley.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 19, 2014 20:22:56 GMT -5
Before this year Holt was thought of as a fringe regular at 2B at best. Not sabermetrically, he wasn't. Clay Davenport's Peak Translation for each of his four seasons in the Pirates' system: .267, .278, .256, .279. The average MLB 2B is .254 (starters, .259), while the average RF is .271 (starter, .276). So his numbers (before last year) projected him as an average-to-good hitting starting 2B, with a peak as an average-hitting RF. His 2014 Peak Translation, .288, is nothing too unexpected for a guy who had previously posted .278 and .279. I'll readily grant you the .009 - .010 difference as BABIP (and other) luck. If you're willing to dismiss 2013 as being without predictive power (as it has been so far, in contrast to the rest of his career), then there's a pretty good case for Holt being a better than average MLB OFer. Nothing special, but basically the successor to Daniel Nava with a better mix of defense and offense, plus the ability to play all over the infield as needed.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 20, 2014 13:48:58 GMT -5
Holt is now about a week away from qualifying with 3.1 PA/game. I have him at 2nd in ROTY excluding Tanaka, behind Abreu.
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