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Post by moonstone2 on Jun 1, 2014 14:14:10 GMT -5
Brock Holt cannot continue to carry this team by himself. They need to get him help. [and, yes, that is hyperbole, but not by much] There was a note in Cafardo's column about the possibility of Brock Holt in CF. At the very least they could send him to Pawtucket at some point to see if he could handle that. Until he cools down they should put him somewhere in the lineup at 1st or left.
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Post by jmei on Jun 1, 2014 14:14:28 GMT -5
Eh, Drew is the much better defender at shortstop, and Holt has hit pretty poorly versus LHP over his minor league career. You'd be choosing between two mediocre alternatives, but I think starting Drew over Holt versus LHP is the right decision, especially once you take into account clubhouse dynamics (starting a guy who is essentially a rookie over the respected veteran they signed mid-season might rub some players the wrong way). Holt's numbers vs. LHP -- MILB and MLB -- are a helluva lot better than what Drew showed us last season. He's really going to have to step it up at least a little bit to warrant playing over Holt against every lefty. Drew was a 33 K% and .246 OBP guy last year. Put X at SS and Holt at 3B and you're probably fielding a better team. I'm sorry, but the "clubhouse dynamics" argument doesn't hold much weight to me when we're talking about someone who flat out cannot hit/reach base against a certain handedness. Holt's not going to provide any more thump, but he'll put the ball in play and get on base more. I think you're exaggerating the offensive difference between Holt and Drew versus lefties. Drew is a career .235/.291/.390 hitter versus lefties in 1071 MLB PAs (one season's worth of splits is way too small of a sample to say anything definitive, and he's been better versus lefties in past years). Brock Holt is a career .271/.352/.315 hitter versus lefties in 470 minor league PAs and a career .305/.348/.356 hitter versus lefties in 68 MLB PAs (he's also been terrific versus Bedard today). Maybe Holt is a slightly better hitter versus LHP, but the difference is probably not that great-- maybe .10 points of wOBA or something. I don't think that gap is large enough to make up for the defensive difference between a Bogaerts/Drew left side and a Holt/Bogaerts one, not to mention that Farrell says they want to give Bogaerts some uninterrupted time at 3B, which this scheme would interrupt (a Bogaerts/Drew left side is far and away better than a Bogaerts/Holt one).
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Post by Guidas on Jun 1, 2014 14:16:51 GMT -5
Looks like Lester took Rubby's performance last night as a bit of a personal challenge. Which we love.
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Post by mredsox89 on Jun 1, 2014 14:17:06 GMT -5
When Lester has great stuff and that's combined with a massive strike zone, he's nearly unhittable
Same HP ump as Lester's 15 K game earlier this season, so yea, I'm not going to complain very much about the mediocre strike zone with the Sox at the plate
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Post by mattpicard on Jun 1, 2014 14:20:01 GMT -5
This umpiring performance has been absolutely abysmal for hitters on both teams.
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Post by jmei on Jun 1, 2014 14:20:34 GMT -5
Yeah, this home plate umpire is totally clueless.
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Post by ethanbein on Jun 1, 2014 14:20:38 GMT -5
This strike zone is atrocious... Plate discipline doesn't do you much good when strikes and balls are completely random.
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Post by ray88h66 on Jun 1, 2014 14:21:11 GMT -5
When Lester has great stuff and that's combined with a massive strike zone, he's nearly unhittable Same HP ump as Lester's 15 K game earlier this season, so yea, I'm not going to complain very much about the mediocre strike zone with the Sox at the plate Good point. The ump's strike zone is awful but it helps the team with the better pitcher. On Holt. The guys on WEEI say Matt Damon will play him in the movie lol.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 1, 2014 14:29:56 GMT -5
This umpiring performance has been absolutely abysmal for hitters on both teams. Wait til you see the brooksbaseball strike zone map after the game. There's already about 12 blown calls.
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Post by mattpicard on Jun 1, 2014 14:31:03 GMT -5
Holt's numbers vs. LHP -- MILB and MLB -- are a helluva lot better than what Drew showed us last season. He's really going to have to step it up at least a little bit to warrant playing over Holt against every lefty. Drew was a 33 K% and .246 OBP guy last year. Put X at SS and Holt at 3B and you're probably fielding a better team. I'm sorry, but the "clubhouse dynamics" argument doesn't hold much weight to me when we're talking about someone who flat out cannot hit/reach base against a certain handedness. Holt's not going to provide any more thump, but he'll put the ball in play and get on base more. I think you're exaggerating the offensive difference between Holt and Drew versus lefties. Drew is a career .235/.291/.390 hitter versus lefties in 1071 MLB PAs (one season's worth of splits is way too small of a sample to say anything definitive, and he's been better versus lefties in past years). Brock Holt is a career .271/.352/.315 hitter versus lefties in 470 minor league PAs and a career .305/.348/.356 hitter versus lefties in 68 MLB PAs (he's also been terrific versus Bedard today). Maybe Holt is a slightly better hitter versus LHP, but the difference is probably not that great-- maybe .10 points of wOBA or something. I don't think that gap is large enough to make up for the defensive difference between a Bogaerts/Drew left side and a Holt/Bogaerts one, not to mention that Farrell says they want to give Bogaerts some uninterrupted time at 3B, which this scheme would interrupt (a Bogaerts/Drew left side is far and away better than a Bogaerts/Holt one). I don't think it's much of a maybe. You saw Drew last year against lefties, and helpless is probably a good descriptor. Outside of a solid 2008 showing, he's never been able to hit them at close to an average level. His wRC+ in 2012 was even lower than in 2013 (49, 54), and I do think the recency tells us something. As for the defensive difference, it's significant but not huge. Holt for all we know could be close to Bogaerts' level in terms of runs above average at third, and while Drew is a better SS than Bogaerts, it's because he's extremely reliable/consistent -- he's closer to average than outstanding, and Bogaerts may be below average but he's not a butcher. Overall, we're talking a small increase in overall value if Holt plays over Drew, but nonetheless I believe it's an increase we should take advantage of, at least some of the time a LHP is on the mound.
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Post by ibsmith85 on Jun 1, 2014 14:31:14 GMT -5
When Lester has great stuff and that's combined with a massive strike zone, he's nearly unhittable Same HP ump as Lester's 15 K game earlier this season, so yea, I'm not going to complain very much about the mediocre strike zone with the Sox at the plate Good point. The ump's strike zone is awful but it helps the team with the better pitcher. On Holt. The guys on WEEI say Matt Damon will play him in the movie lol. I'm surprised he nor Affleck haven't done something like this already, like a Tony C movie, or something similar.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 1, 2014 14:32:17 GMT -5
Drew tries to pull everything so every LHP throws him away, away, away. Drew never adjusts so he's terrible. He should take some pointers from Papi.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jun 1, 2014 14:32:18 GMT -5
That Sox lineup truly is pretty amazing. The turnover from last year's team due to free agency and injuries has been incredible. Who could have predicted the players in the infield now?
Holt has become the Sox version of Zobrist.
I am watching this game on Gameday and if the location of the pitches as depicted is correct, then there is no way a hitter can tell whether any pitch near the strike zone will be called a strike or a ball. Some that appear in the strike zone have been called balls, and some that appear to be at least a couple inches out of the strike zone have been called strikes, and there does not seem to be any consistency.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 1, 2014 14:34:19 GMT -5
Brock Holt is better than Drew.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 1, 2014 14:35:46 GMT -5
It's going to suck to face teams that can hit again. I like this.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 1, 2014 14:39:39 GMT -5
When does K% rate stabilize? Lester is way, way higher than he's been at in years.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 1, 2014 14:45:37 GMT -5
Yeah, this home plate umpire is totally clueless. Wider than Eric Gregg's. I'm talking strike zone not waistline. The only thing that might make this interesting is if he gave the Frank Drebin K call.. And, a Greg Blosser mention. First time two Sox have made their debut in the same game since 1993. Jeff McNeely and the legendary Greg Blosser. I thought they'd be the next Burks/Greeenwell combo.
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Post by feez732 on Jun 1, 2014 14:54:39 GMT -5
When does K% rate stabilize? Lester is way, way higher than he's been at in years. I assume you're looking for the information from this link, which says 70 batters faced. Keep in mind that the significance of the numbers in that article is somewhat controversial.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jun 1, 2014 14:56:47 GMT -5
When was the last time there were this many rookies in a lineup?
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 1, 2014 14:57:26 GMT -5
When does K% rate stabilize? Lester is way, way higher than he's been at in years. I assume you're looking for the information from this link, which says 70 batters faced. Keep in mind that the significance of the numbers in that article is somewhat controversial. If you're looking for predictive value you might want to throw out all games with this particular home plate ump.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 1, 2014 14:57:54 GMT -5
When does K% rate stabilize? Lester is way, way higher than he's been at in years. I assume you're looking for the information from this link, which says 70 batters faced. Keep in mind that the significance of the numbers in that article is somewhat controversial. That seems way low.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 1, 2014 14:58:15 GMT -5
I assume you're looking for the information from this link, which says 70 batters faced. Keep in mind that the significance of the numbers in that article is somewhat controversial. If you're looking for predictive value you might want to throw out all games with this particular home plate ump. And probably all games vs. the Rays
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Post by mredsox89 on Jun 1, 2014 15:00:27 GMT -5
So how long until we see the Lester extension finalized?
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Post by terriblehondo on Jun 1, 2014 15:05:10 GMT -5
When does K% rate stabilize? Lester is way, way higher than he's been at in years. Have AJ catch him
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Post by jmei on Jun 1, 2014 15:08:14 GMT -5
This is some youth movement, huh?
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