SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
6/9-6/11 Red Sox @ Orioles Series Thread
|
Post by mattpicard on Jun 9, 2014 20:33:34 GMT -5
Just inexcusably pathetic nights at the plate for Bogey, Peds, Ortiz, and Nap against Bud freakin' Norris. 0 for 16, none reached based. Combine that with Jake Peavy on the mound against a power hitting team and your chances of winning are close to nil.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 9, 2014 20:42:07 GMT -5
I've been trying to tamp down my pessimism about this team while they're still vaguely clinging to contention. But they're not good.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2014 20:57:25 GMT -5
So then what's your explanation for him stinking so badly?
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 9, 2014 21:13:40 GMT -5
Just put everyone on the trading block and start calling the kids up. I'd rather see bradley progressing than trade guys for some veteran outfielder just to see us make a run at .500. If anything a race to a top 5 draft pick and watching the kids play would be more exciting to me. They may lose some casual fans in the short term, but finishing At .475 won't exactly win those guys over either.
Doesn't make sense to hold onto lester if he is leaving anyway... A trade would bring us more value than a draft pick. If they want to resign him, great! But no one wants to see us give some half-assed offer to him and then lose him, with only the 35th pick in the draft or whatever it is to show for it.
|
|
|
Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 9, 2014 21:17:06 GMT -5
This offense is pretty discouraging. The frustrating part is that there is no real way to fix it this season. The truth! Try convincing most of the fans that however, who have never heard of any of the prospects Boston has and would be 100% towards trading anything just for a 1 and out scenario wild card game? Not saying most fans here, but fans around the city of Boston that no little to nothing other than W-L. Victorino comes back, gives then 6 fair to decent players, they still need another OF. Do they succumb to another "Drew crumble" and trade 1-2 top kids for a junk pile like Bedard for the OF? Another Gagne like affair again? Let's hope Cherrington grows a spine.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,660
|
Post by cdj on Jun 9, 2014 21:17:51 GMT -5
Good job, good effort
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 9, 2014 21:20:56 GMT -5
I am hoping for 41-40 at the halfway point. That would require 13-5 over the next 18. Yes...there is no reason to believe they are capable of that. However, the talk of being a seller at this time is nonsense.
BTW...they are only 5 or 6 games out of 2nd wild card. Herr Buch-up boys....we gotta ride the storm out like real fisherman...not like guys selling bait.
|
|
|
Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 9, 2014 21:27:16 GMT -5
So then what's your explanation for him stinking so badly? Prospects will break your heart. Also the sooner they punt on the season and realize this team is headed fo a mediocre finish at best the better.
|
|
|
Post by redsox4242 on Jun 9, 2014 21:44:29 GMT -5
Bradley batted 189 in 37 games last season with Boston, so obviously offensively he is not ready and STILL is NOT ready. He is a strikeout machine also, worse then Saltalamacchia.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 9, 2014 22:11:08 GMT -5
So then what's your explanation for him stinking so badly? I dunno. He strikes out a lot.
|
|
|
Post by marrcus on Jun 9, 2014 23:15:38 GMT -5
Let's hope Cherrington grows a spine. "--------------------------------------"
I sense there will be leaks before too long as to who made the decision to bring back Drew. Some think it was Larry. In any case I think this will be the week the press turns and we are going to hear stories of unhappiness (can you imagine that)?
Things started yesterday with the Lackey threat (according to Rosenthal) to retire before he plays for MLB minimum in '15. So I don't know about Ben? This is a real challenge for him. Even if this year turns into a horror show he can come out of it without a lot of personal damage if he makes some positive moves for the future. But it will take some iron blood because the RS aren't going to readily admit they're sellers no matter what the record says.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 9, 2014 23:39:37 GMT -5
I'm wrong about so many things but the one thing I said that rang true is that in 2013 the Red Sox had just about EVERYTHING break their way last year (and I caught some flack for saying that), and I knew the odds of that happening in 2014 were slim to none. And despite that reality I picked them to win 88 games. The reality is they have a better shot at losing 88 (or more) games this year.
In essence the Sox swapped out Ellsbury for Bradley and Salty for AJP. The rest of the roster was almost exactly the same except for the Sizemore, Mujica, and Capuano additions and the Dempster, Morales, and Berry subtractions.
Pretty much the same roster but drastically different results. It's easy to say "Ben should have done this, should have done that", but other than outbidding NY on Tanaka or finding a legit RH hitting CF to hedge their bets against JBJ struggling or Sizemore getting hurt or playing like a guy who hasn't been a good player in 6 years, there's not much he could have done to change the team.
The fact of the matter is if Ben blew this team up and the team didn't gel right away, he'd be ripped for tearing apart a winner too soon. This team had to fail for Ben to make changes and now it is happening and it's real.
Last year's Pythagorean numbers said the Sox actually underachieved slightly and therefore weren't a mirage. In 2013 they weren't, but the numbers say that this year isn't a mirage - they really do stink.
The good news is they will stink enough come July 31st that the Sox shouldn't feel compelled to do anything stupid to save this sinking ship. Their fixes need to be long-term.
They need to decide if they can compete in 2015. The two most comparable years that 2014 reminds me of is 1976 (the hangover after the 1975 joy ride) and 1987 (the depression after the 1986 kick in the guts). Note that in 1977 and in 1988 the Sox bounced back and sustained their success. My gut tells me the Sox should be able to bounce back in 2015, but they will need to retain Lester, Lackey, and Uehara to do so. They have to make a real offer to Lester, and despite my dislike of Lackey most likely not honoring (possibly retiring) the contract he signed, the Sox need to find a way to keep him aboard for 2015 and try to extend him an extra year in 2016, and keep Uehara around - sorry don't want to hear about his age - it's not like age slowed down Rivera at all - and Uehara has been Rivera-good, and I have no reason to think Uehara will go in the tank if they can keep him healthy. If they want to win, they need a very dependable closer and the years they've won - they had Foulke, Papelbon, and Uehara.
They'll need to build around those guys with youth as they're trying to do, but they're going to have to get a big-time corner OF bat somehow without mortgaging the system - easier said than done. Ortiz was right - they can't be relying on him to save their bacon all the time like he did a couple of nights ago. He is getting older and so is Pedroia and it's showing.
My only hope for 2014 is that they don't finish last - as it's great to go from worst to first but it stinks to return from first to worst.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 10, 2014 1:10:12 GMT -5
I am hoping for 41-40 at the halfway point. That would require 13-5 over the next 18. Yes...there is no reason to believe they are capable of that. However, the talk of being a seller at this time is nonsense. BTW...they are only 5 or 6 games out of 2nd wild card. Herr Buch-up boys....we gotta ride the storm out like real fisherman...not like guys selling bait. 6 out with 8 of 9 teams ahead of us. Yes, that means we are now behind the powerhouse Astros. 13-5 (.722) sounds realistic considering how well we have been playing.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 10, 2014 1:43:16 GMT -5
I am hoping for 41-40 at the halfway point. That would require 13-5 over the next 18. Yes...there is no reason to believe they are capable of that. However, the talk of being a seller at this time is nonsense. BTW...they are only 5 or 6 games out of 2nd wild card. Herr Buch-up boys....we gotta ride the storm out like real fisherman...not like guys selling bait. 6 out with 8 of 9 teams ahead of us. Yes, that means we are now behind the powerhouse Astros. 13-5 (.722) sounds realistic considering how well we have been playing. phils...you must have been blinking when you missed the part of my post that is bolded. It seems, unlike a lot of people that follow the Sox, that I have a little more patience to let the season play out.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 10, 2014 3:02:42 GMT -5
6 out with 8 of 9 teams ahead of us. Yes, that means we are now behind the powerhouse Astros. 13-5 (.722) sounds realistic considering how well we have been playing. phils...you must have been blinking when you missed the part of my post that is bolded. It seems, unlike a lot of people that follow the Sox, that I have a little more patience to let the season play out. Sorry didn't mean it to sound that way, intent was to highlight the fact that even .500 is a tough road while pointing out that the Astros have now passed us, as in the only team that has had first pick three years in a row Astros.
|
|
|
Post by raftsox on Jun 10, 2014 7:54:41 GMT -5
Look, I don't care what any American, including Clay himself, thinks how the name should be pronounced. It's clearly a German name and everyone in Germany will agree with me. I have to say that I think you're wrong here. It doesn't matter how you pronounce it; it matters how Clay pronounces it. For example: my last name is very French - Beaudoin. I pronounce it Bow-dwin. If I'm in Montreal they pronounce it Bow-dwa. So, unless Clay is in a Germanic speaking country it should be pronounced Buck-holtz rather than boo-cultz.
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 10, 2014 8:00:27 GMT -5
We may need to rebuild in 2015 too so that we don't end up wasting the prime years of Xander and some of these other guys. Our outfield is a total mess and doesn't look like its close to being fixed.... Our rotation without Lester and possibly lackey will be a work in progress.
The situation to me is starting to remind me of the Celtics. They won the title with their core guys, and then when they're no longer competitive, trade them for as many assets as you can get. That way, with their high draft picks, all their cap room and assets, they can vault back into contention.
Koji might not fetch enough of a return to be worth trading, but lackey and lester definitely would.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Jun 10, 2014 8:19:52 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 10, 2014 8:34:19 GMT -5
We're built to win, but the team is also built in a way it can be rebuilt more easily than some teams. We don't have any real terrible contracts like most teams do, and we'll have some pretty big salary flexibility coming up soon. Between lester, lackey, drew, AJP, peavy, ross, koji... Thats a lot of money. Napoli is tradeable too. Im not sure about Victorino, I'd imagine he stays here since he fills a big need on our team.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Jun 10, 2014 8:36:49 GMT -5
We may need to rebuild in 2015 too so that we don't end up wasting the prime years of Xander and some of these other guys. Our outfield is a total mess and doesn't look like its close to being fixed.... Our rotation without Lester and possibly lackey will be a work in progress. The situation to me is starting to remind me of the Celtics. They won the title with their core guys, and then when they're no longer competitive, trade them for as many assets as you can get. That way, with their high draft picks, all their cap room and assets, they can vault back into contention. Koji might not fetch enough of a return to be worth trading, but lackey and lester definitely would. This market will not tolerate a full-on "rebuild." Not sure how much of the Sox' business/profit model depends on season-long near sell-outs and NESN ratings reaching a certain number to maintain ad dollar revenue level, but I strongly believe this ownership group will not willingly go into a rebuild year EXCEPT in the rare case like this year - which they seemed to anticipate would be a partial rebuild on the fly - when they had so much good will via the World Series. That good will allowed them to essentially sell the vast bulk of seats in the pre-season and, during the same period, set an aggressive ad rate schedule on NESN and get those full-year advertisement contracts signed. That won't play next year if they don't remain in at least WIld Card contention into Sept. Seat sales will decline, as will season-long pre-sales on ad contracts. Domino effect to luxury box revenue and ancillary sales such as souvenirs, concessions, parking, and whatever else they either own outright or take a percentages on. As much as we like the prospects here, the fans who ring the cash register want a winning team. Or to use your Celtics analogy, lotta empty seats in the Garden last two years. This isn't Tampa, Kansas City, Houston, San Diego, Minnesota or (insert cheap billionaire owner team here). This ownership group is not investing $186M a year to have 60% capacity in their seat and lux box revenue and reduced ad revenues 2 out of the last 3 years. It's a sport, but it's also a business.
|
|
|
Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 10, 2014 9:00:52 GMT -5
What are your thoughts on Pedro Alvarez? I'm ready to punt on this season. But, would like to bring; Lackey, Lester and Koji back next year. Would only deal guys like; Gomes, Breslow, Peavy and maybe Miller. Possibly, Doubront. I think we can contend with two lh bats. My other is Melky Cabrera. The Pirates are also having a disappointing season. They've only got him for 2 more years and Boras is his agent. Bye-bye Pittsburgh. WMB, Marrero and Doubront for Alvarez? Xander back to shortstop. If he can't cut it at shortstop next year, we can move him back to 3rd and slide Alvarez over to 1b when Napoli leaves. If Alvarez is doing well and we re-up him of course.
|
|
|
Post by raftsox on Jun 10, 2014 9:03:24 GMT -5
I'm wrong about so many things but the one thing I said that rang true is that in 2013 the Red Sox had just about EVERYTHING break their way last year (and I caught some flack for saying that), and I knew the odds of that happening in 2014 were slim to none. And despite that reality I picked them to win 88 games. The reality is they have a better shot at losing 88 (or more) games this year. Last year's Pythagorean numbers said the Sox actually underachieved slightly and therefore weren't a mirage. In 2013 they weren't, but the numbers say that this year isn't a mirage - they really do stink. I seem to remember reading that the Sox internal projections for the 2013 season was 92 wins. You could extrapolate that replacing Ellsbury represents a 4 WIN loss, losing Buchholz is another 3 losses, etc. They over performed last season, expected to be worse this season with the personnel changes and have underperformed this season. I'm thinking they're not quite as bad as they're playing, but .500 is probably accurate.
|
|
|
Post by elguapo on Jun 10, 2014 9:12:29 GMT -5
This isn't Tampa, Kansas City, Houston, San Diego, Minnesota or (insert cheap billionaire owner team here). This ownership group is not investing $186M a year to have 60% capacity in their seat and lux box revenue and reduced ad revenues 2 out of the last 3 years. It's a sport, but it's also a business. Kind of rings hollow when they spend $186M on payroll and are still raking in profit hand over fist, so to speak. There's really no percentage in reducing payroll. Sometimes things break right, like last season.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 10, 2014 9:17:04 GMT -5
phils...you must have been blinking when you missed the part of my post that is bolded. It seems, unlike a lot of people that follow the Sox, that I have a little more patience to let the season play out. Sorry didn't mean it to sound that way, intent was to highlight the fact that even .500 is a tough road while pointing out that the Astros have now passed us, as in the only team that has had first pick three years in a row Astros. No worries and sorry if I took it the wrong way also. It does seem to be a tall task.
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 10, 2014 9:18:01 GMT -5
Maybe not a full scale rebuild... But trading guys in the last years of their deals makes sense if we don't plan on keeping them and they are going to leave anyway. The seats are already sold and if we're going to be a ,450 team it won't help the tv ratings to hold onto them.
Cutting the payroll saves money for this season, and gets us prospects, and we can always sign guys in the offseason.
|
|
|