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6/9-6/11 Red Sox @ Orioles Series Thread
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Post by terriblehondo on Jun 10, 2014 9:25:36 GMT -5
Maybe they are like the Giants. Every other year a World Series. This year it is the Giants turn next the Sox.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 10, 2014 9:59:52 GMT -5
I wonder if the players are really surprised at how tough it has been this year. There are arguments that, because of the roster changes, they might not be as good. Sometimes, I think last years success was based on how pumped up these guys were, right from Spring Training, that they weren't dealing with Bobby Valentine.
In any event...the talent dropoff really can't be the sole (or maybe even) the only reason. Realistically, it may not be a quantifiable reason...as hard as that may be for some to take. That's why I'd like them to wait on thoughts of a rebuild, let's see where we are in the middle of July.
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Post by stevedillard on Jun 10, 2014 11:02:44 GMT -5
Isn't that the basic long term question: Are the Sox a weaker core as evidenced by the 2012 and 2014 results, with 2013 being the wonderful abberation, or are they the 2013 team (a playoff team, which is capable of winning it all) that lost a little in the tinkering (Ellsbury, Salty)?
I don't begrudge them selling the "thank god we got rid of longer term contract guys", "flexibility," "3 year contract FA market depth" and "intangibles" story lines, and I also don't begrudge them the year to experiment with getting good results from cheaper labor (JBJ/WMB/XB). I also don't begrudge them not overpaying Ellsbury, not signing Salty for a number of years in order to free space for Vasquez/Swihart) or not signing Drew to give WMB a chance and get them a pick. That's the honeymoon they earned from the WS.
However, I hope they are smart enought not to buy what they were selling, and that by the off season they recognize that the kids are not able to take the spots, that the "marginal 2 or 3 year short term FA" come with their own issues (Gomes/Victorino/Dempster & using flexibility to trade for 2 years of Peavy) that waste money, and they need a long term contract in the middle of the lineup.
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Post by charliezink16 on Jun 10, 2014 11:15:35 GMT -5
I'm always overly optimistic, so choose to ignore me, but I'm not ready to give up on the season just yet. We still have arguably the best bullpen in all of baseball, and statistically the best 1-2 punch w/ Lackey & Lester ranking 7th and 8th in SP WAR thus far. SP production falls off after that, but between De La Rosa, Peavy, Doubront, Buchholz, Workman, Ranaudo, and Webster, I'm confident that 1-2 of them can be consistent back of the rotation arms from here on out.
Of course, it's the offense that has people worried, but can it really get much worse? The only regression we can reasonably expect to see is from Brock Holt (and maybe X who's carrying a high BABIP at the moment). Pedroia has been below average, and probably won't get worse. Napoli is finally off the DL and will provide some protection to Papi. Bradley really can't get any worse at the plate. Finally, Nava coming out of the Farrell doghouse should help our LF production. I don't expect Vic to return in the near future, so RF remains an issue, but I'm hoping that Mookie can work some magic and come up sometime in August.
I'm not saying that everything is going to go the way I want it to, because, well, it isn't. Still, this team isn't the 2nd worst team in the AL, as their record shows right now. Why write this team off when the competition for the 2nd wild card is between other teams w/ many flaws. Seattle? Baltimore? Texas? NYY? They're all struggling too.
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Post by jmei on Jun 10, 2014 11:21:32 GMT -5
This team's true talent is definitely still enough to place it squarely in the playoff hunt. The problem is that they've dug themselves a pretty huge hole, and it's really hard even for a talented team to go on the sort of hot streak it would take to get them back in the race.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 10, 2014 11:32:02 GMT -5
Have to look at it as a 6-game deficit (wild card) right now. That's completely doable, esp with series upcoming against most of the teams in front of them.
Just win today.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 10, 2014 11:35:30 GMT -5
I'm always overly optimistic, so choose to ignore me, but I'm not ready to give up on the season just yet. We still have arguably the best bullpen in all of baseball, and statistically the best 1-2 punch w/ Lackey & Lester ranking 7th and 8th in SP WAR thus far. SP production falls off after that, but between De La Rosa, Peavy, Doubront, Buchholz, Workman, Ranaudo, and Webster, I'm confident that 1-2 of them can be consistent back of the rotation arms from here on out. Of course, it's the offense that has people worried, but can it really get much worse? The only regression we can reasonably expect to see is from Brock Holt (and maybe X who's carrying a high BABIP at the moment). Pedroia has been below average, and probably won't get worse. Napoli is finally off the DL and will provide some protection to Papi. Bradley really can't get any worse at the plate. Finally, Nava coming out of the Farrell doghouse should help our LF production. I don't expect Vic to return in the near future, so RF remains an issue, but I'm hoping that Mookie can work some magic and come up sometime in August. I'm not saying that everything is going to go the way I want it to, because, well, it isn't. Still, this team isn't the 2nd worst team in the AL, as their record shows right now. Why write this team off when the competition for the 2nd wild card is between other teams w/ many flaws. Seattle? Baltimore? Texas? NYY? They're all struggling too. No, they're not this bad. The problem is that they're seven games under .500 and they have start winning at a .575 clip right now to get to 85 wins. In other words it's not really enough for all those improvements you suggest to manifest themselves at some point. This team has to improve dramatically and they need to do it really soon. So yeah Victorino might come back and Drew might start hitting and they might a few starters that don't suck besides Lester and Lackey and Nava will probably be decent again and Pedroia might start hitting more... but ALL of those things need to happen and they need to happen SOON. It's like how every mediocre-to-bad team can look good in spring training: if this guys hits like he can and this guy comes back from his injuries and this pitcher takes a step forward, etc, this team could contend! But when you're counting on every positive outcome to hit at once you're going to end up sad 95% of the time.
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Post by jmei on Jun 10, 2014 11:42:17 GMT -5
Isn't that the basic long term question: Are the Sox a weaker core as evidenced by the 2012 and 2014 results, with 2013 being the wonderful abberation, or are they the 2013 team (a playoff team, which is capable of winning it all) that lost a little in the tinkering (Ellsbury, Salty)? I don't begrudge them selling the "thank god we got rid of longer term contract guys", "flexibility," "3 year contract FA market depth" and "intangibles" story lines, and I also don't begrudge them the year to experiment with getting good results from cheaper labor (JBJ/WMB/XB). I also don't begrudge them not overpaying Ellsbury, not signing Salty for a number of years in order to free space for Vasquez/Swihart) or not signing Drew to give WMB a chance and get them a pick. That's the honeymoon they earned from the WS. However, I hope they are smart enought not to buy what they were selling, and that by the off season they recognize that the kids are not able to take the spots, that the "marginal 2 or 3 year short term FA" come with their own issues (Gomes/Victorino/Dempster & using flexibility to trade for 2 years of Peavy) that waste money, and they need a long term contract in the middle of the lineup. They gambled on youth and lost, but it doesn't mean the initial strategy was fundamentally wrong. Good organizations trust the process. Flukey things happen in small samples, and the front office shouldn't overreact based on a few underperforming young players. I'm not saying they shouldn't try to re-sign Lester at a reasonable price or see if they can buy low on Carlos Gonzalez, but going into the offseason with the mindset that they need to make a "big splash" or whatever is likely to result in something dumb like overpaying for Nelson Cruz. Yes, reinforcements are needed, but I'd rather they add some good complementary pieces than start throwing money around just because the previous season ended poorly.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 10, 2014 11:42:26 GMT -5
Have to look at it as a 6-game deficit (wild card) right now. That's completely doable, esp with series upcoming against most of the teams in front of them. Just win today. Looking at it that way conveniently ignores that the Red Sox have the 13th best record in the AL. It's not the number of games, it's that they have to be better than eight other teams the rest of way.
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Post by godot on Jun 10, 2014 11:46:17 GMT -5
This team's true talent is definitely still enough to place it squarely in the playoff hunt. The problem is that they've dug themselves a pretty huge hole, and it's really hard even for a talented team to go on the sort of hot streak it would take to get them back in the race. What the hey is "true talent". If it has something to do with players not playing to their potential or previous levels, this could be a meaningless term. Ball players, like other athletes, do not consistently play at the same levels all the time. They get old, injured, or even regress. Sometimes they just are playing to what they are at that time, and now this is their talent level. Besides,, how do you know what is a particular players "true talent" at this particular time. Change is life, nothing is permanent. Don't know who were thinking of when you wrote this, but be careful when you use a term like "true" talent.
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jdb
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Post by jdb on Jun 10, 2014 11:51:48 GMT -5
It's hard to say the gamble on youth wasn't the right call in my option. The problem was not going out and signing a quality RH bat that could spell JBJ and play RF when Victorino gets hurt. They could have overpaid for Eric Chavez to be the LHH to back up the corners and platoon with WMBs if he struggled.
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Post by jmei on Jun 10, 2014 11:56:08 GMT -5
This team's true talent is definitely still enough to place it squarely in the playoff hunt. The problem is that they've dug themselves a pretty huge hole, and it's really hard even for a talented team to go on the sort of hot streak it would take to get them back in the race. What the hey is "true talent". If it has something to do with players not playing to their potential or previous levels, this could be a meaningless term. Ball players, like other athletes, do not consistently play at the same levels all the time. They get old, injured, or even regress. Sometimes they just are playing to what they are at that time, and now this is their talent level. Besides,, how do you know what is a particular players "true talent" at this particular time. Change is life, nothing is permanent. Don't know who were thinking of when you wrote this, but be careful when you use a term like "true" talent. www.fangraphs.com/library/understanding-projections-true-talent-level-and-variability/www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12210If there's a concept you don't understand, google is your friend. True talent level certainly changes, especially if there's a tangible explanation for why that change will be sustainable going forward (i.e., injury, change in mechanics, etc.), but two months' worth of performance (or non-performance) shouldn't move the needle too much. I do think worse of Bradley and Middlebrooks (and even Nava) since the start of the season, but not enough that I think they desperately need a new CF or 3B or LF next year.
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Post by stevedillard on Jun 10, 2014 12:05:12 GMT -5
They gambled on youth and lost, but it doesn't mean the initial strategy was fundamentally wrong. Good organizations trust the process. Flukey things happen in small samples, and the front office shouldn't overreact based on a few underperforming young players. I'm not saying they shouldn't try to re-sign Lester at a reasonable price or see if they can buy low on Carlos Gonzalez, but going into the offseason with the mindset that they need to make a "big splash" or whatever is likely to result in something dumb like overpaying for Nelson Cruz. Yes, reinforcements are needed, but I'd rather they add some good complementary pieces than start throwing money around just because the previous season ended poorly. I don't think it was a wrong strategy -- it was absolutely the best. If you are going to invest long term on a contract, first figure out what your needs are. Unfortunately, the cheaper spots haven't exactly eliminated the spots that are set for the future. Only Xander has secured himself as part of the solution, going forward. And they have a half year to see if maybe JBJ/WMB can make it. They have time.
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Post by godot on Jun 10, 2014 12:08:49 GMT -5
Poor comeback. You should have articulated what you meant more precisely other than causally throwing out the term. You don't need Google when philosophy of language 101 should be sufficient. Take a few courses. Sorry, not a mind reader, and still do not know what you are saying. Who moderates the moderators?
p.s. You did inadvertently bring up a good subject. What is the talent level of this team?
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Post by Guidas on Jun 10, 2014 12:13:14 GMT -5
Have to look at it as a 6-game deficit (wild card) right now. That's completely doable, esp with series upcoming against most of the teams in front of them. Just win today. Looking at it that way conveniently ignores that the Red Sox have the 13th best record in the AL. It's not the number of games, it's that they have to be better than eight other teams the rest of way. Yeah, but they're ballplayers. "Never tell me the odds!" Han Solo (courtesy of George Lucas' writing)
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 10, 2014 12:20:10 GMT -5
Let's hope Cherrington grows a spine. "--------------------------------------" I sense there will be leaks before too long as to who made the decision to bring back Drew. Some think it was Larry. In any case I think this will be the week the press turns and we are going to hear stories of unhappiness (can you imagine that)? Things started yesterday with the Lackey threat (according to Rosenthal) to retire before he plays for MLB minimum in '15. So I don't know about Ben? This is a real challenge for him. Even if this year turns into a horror show he can come out of it without a lot of personal damage if he makes some positive moves for the future. But it will take some iron blood because the RS aren't going to readily admit they're sellers no matter what the record says. he is still under contract even if he sits out a year
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Post by dmaineah on Jun 10, 2014 12:35:00 GMT -5
Let's hope Cherrington grows a spine. "--------------------------------------" I sense there will be leaks before too long as to who made the decision to bring back Drew. Some think it was Larry. In any case I think this will be the week the press turns and we are going to hear stories of unhappiness (can you imagine that)? Things started yesterday with the Lackey threat (according to Rosenthal) to retire before he plays for MLB minimum in '15. So I don't know about Ben? This is a real challenge for him. Even if this year turns into a horror show he can come out of it without a lot of personal damage if he makes some positive moves for the future. But it will take some iron blood because the RS aren't going to readily admit they're sellers no matter what the record says. he is still under contract even if he sits out a year Nothing happens without Larrys' approval.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 10, 2014 12:47:59 GMT -5
Machado suspended 5 games, likely to appeal.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 10, 2014 13:12:02 GMT -5
Just rework lackey's deal so he gets 5 mil in 2015 and 5 in 2014. He is very likely to give us that value and if he turns down that deal, Ben can say hey, at least I tried.
Either that or trade Lackey.
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Post by mattpicard on Jun 10, 2014 13:24:15 GMT -5
LF Holt 3B Bogaerts 2B Pedroia DH Ortiz 1B Napoli RF Nava C AJP CF Sizemore SS Herrera
RHP Workman
Glad to see Nava inching up in the lineup. No Drew again -- could be a few days. I see they're giving JBJ back-to-back days off, but honestly, give me his upside and defense over Grady Sizemore. Both have the same OBP, and Sizemore's been only marginally better overall with the bat.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 10, 2014 13:42:37 GMT -5
Glad to see Nava inching up in the lineup. No Drew again -- could be a few days. I see they're giving JBJ back-to-back days off, but honestly, give me his upside and defense over Grady Sizemore. Both have the same OBP, and Sizemore's been only marginally better overall with the bat. Well, I totally understand that they want to play Nava and Holt, they want to see more of Sizemore because they want to make a decision on him soon, and Camden Yards is one of the better places to sit JBJ and let Sizemore play center. Personally I'd rather see Holt at SS but it feels like I'm flogging a dead horse there. On John Lackey, offering to rework his option to 2yr/$10m would basically be an insult. The way he's pitching I would feel we got a great deal if we managed to get 3yr/$24m instead of the option.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 10, 2014 13:44:04 GMT -5
That's because JBJ is just now finishing his swing from the other night in Detroit. DAMN it's a long one...needs to be compacted more, especially since he isn't a power guy.
Win tonight please. Just try and take 2 of every 3 and we'll be fine in no time (a lot easier said than done, but I've seen crazier things happen).
Also, would really like them to switch Bogaerts and Pedroia.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 10, 2014 13:50:49 GMT -5
Glad to see Nava inching up in the lineup. No Drew again -- could be a few days. I see they're giving JBJ back-to-back days off, but honestly, give me his upside and defense over Grady Sizemore. Both have the same OBP, and Sizemore's been only marginally better overall with the bat. Well, I totally understand that they want to play Nava and Holt, they want to see more of Sizemore because they want to make a decision on him soon, and Camden Yards is one of the better places to sit JBJ and let Sizemore play center. Personally I'd rather see Holt at SS but it feels like I'm flogging a dead horse there. On John Lackey, offering to rework his option to 2yr/$10m would basically be an insult. The way he's pitching I would feel we got a great deal if we managed to get 3yr/$24m instead of the option. Trade him then if he doesn't look like he is going to follow his contractual obligations next season. The Sox have the upper hand in these negotiations. Some GMs would say take it or leave it.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2014 14:04:10 GMT -5
Lackey has approximately $10 million left to be paid this year and then the $500K next near. The deal does need to be reworked though, otherwise he's likely to just sit out the 2015 season. When you've earned as much money during your career as Lackey has, $500K vs being able to spend a year with your family is a no brainer. At the very least, the threat of sitting out is an excellent bargaining tool with extremely little downside for him. Assuming he continues a very respectable 2014 pitching performance, Lackey could return in 2016 on a one year deal for $10 million if not more. With the player having all the leverage, negotiations for the Red Sox are likely to be a headache. Add that fact to Lackey already being 35 years old and the aforementioned solid 2014 pitching performance and you get a pretty nice candidate for the trade block. He'd certainly be worth more than Peavy was last year.
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Post by danr on Jun 10, 2014 14:09:07 GMT -5
LF Holt 3B Bogaerts 2B Pedroia DH Ortiz 1B Napoli RF Nava C AJP CF Sizemore SS Herrera RHP Workman Glad to see Nava inching up in the lineup. No Drew again -- could be a few days. I see they're giving JBJ back-to-back days off, but honestly, give me his upside and defense over Grady Sizemore. Both have the same OBP, and Sizemore's been only marginally better overall with the bat. I suspect the Sox are nearing the end of the Sizemore experiment, but he's getting some last chances. With Victorino and Middlebrooks coming back before too long (I think), an OF has to go along with someone else, probably Herrera. Since Victorino can play CF - and Holt probably can - Siezmore isn't needed for that purpose, and without that purpose, he has to hit, and he isn't, and doesn't even look like he will.
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