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2014-15 offseason discussion
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 4, 2015 19:39:11 GMT -5
I think you misinterpreted Ray's claim that Buchholz is "low risk." He didn't mean that Buchholz has a high floor in terms of potential player performance (we all recognize the wild swings in performance we've seen from him over the past half-decade), he meant that his contractual status means that even if he busts, the Red Sox aren't on the hook for a lot of dead money. In my mind, he's akin to someone like Francisco Liriano or Brandon McCarthy-- there's considerable upside there, but also considerable injury and consistency questions. Considering that Liriano just got 3/$39m (and a QO), having Buchholz for 1/$12.75m guaranteed, plus team options at $13m and $13.5m, is not quite a steal, but still a good bit under-market. I didn't misinterpret anything. Of course the risk is low beyond this season because he doesn't have a guaranteed deal, but the risk this year is significant because you're committing one of five rotation spots to someone who is extremely unpredictable. And using Liriano's contract doesn't really make sense. He is coming off an excellent season. You could just as easily use Masterson's deal as a comp.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 4, 2015 19:41:44 GMT -5
I think you misinterpreted Ray's claim that Buchholz is "low risk." He didn't mean that Buchholz has a high floor in terms of potential player performance (we all recognize the wild swings in performance we've seen from him over the past half-decade), he meant that his contractual status means that even if he busts, the Red Sox aren't on the hook for a lot of dead money. In my mind, he's akin to someone like Francisco Liriano or Brandon McCarthy-- there's considerable upside there, but also considerable injury and consistency questions. Considering that Liriano just got 3/$39m (and a QO), having Buchholz for 1/$12.75m guaranteed, plus team options at $13m and $13.5m, is not quite a steal, but still a good bit under-market. And even more important in a year that we're going over cap, the Red Sox aren't on the hook for a lot of dead years. Even the buyouts are under minimum wage, it won't be a difficult decision either way. Masterson isn't a good comp because of the upside aspect. If Masterson is good, we only end up with a draft pick. It's really best of either good or bad scenario here. Also, nobody is going to suck for a year, we have Wright and Workman with others to follow.
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Post by jmei on Jan 4, 2015 20:41:53 GMT -5
I didn't misinterpret anything. Of course the risk is low beyond this season because he doesn't have a guaranteed deal, but the risk this year is significant because you're committing one of five rotation spots to someone who is extremely unpredictable. And using Liriano's contract doesn't really make sense. He is coming off an excellent season. You could just as easily use Masterson's deal as a comp. Unpredictability (risk in the classical sense) is not necessarily a bad thing if you can hedge against it. For reasons discussed above, I think the Red Sox are in a good position to hedge the downside risk while leaving themselves open to upside. The worst-case scenario is a few months of awful pitching, but that's not going to sink their season. Meanwhile, they have lower-risk starting pitchers filling out their rotation (Porcello, Miley) and multiple legit arms in Pawtucket, which means they're not going to keep running him out there if he's scuffling. Liriano isn't coming off of that good of a season. The two are coming off more comparable seasons than you might think, at least by certain measures:
| fWAR | bWAR | SIERA | ERA-
| FIP- | Buchholz | 2.2 | -1.6 | 4.02 | 134 | 102 | Liriano | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3.61 | 95 | 100 |
Also, for what it's worth, Steamer projects them reasonably similarly (Buchholz: 2.1 wins; Liriano: 2.4 wins). ADD: and since you mention it, yes, I did really like the Masterson signing as well. I feel like guys like Buchholz and Masterson really help illustrate the fact that while it's easy to say "buy low" in the abstract, it's harder to actually talk yourself into some of these signings. Recency bias can be hard to overcome. But as 2013 has taught us, it's a strategy that can certainly pay off.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 4, 2015 21:14:55 GMT -5
Do you put any credence in actually watching Buchholz pitch last year? If he has another year like last year, the Red Sox are screwed. I really don't care what his fWAR says about him.
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Post by jmei on Jan 4, 2015 21:49:35 GMT -5
I remember temple and I were arguing about it on the game threads as it was happening. I believed then, as I do now, that regression was coming, and to a significant extent it did once he returned from his phantom DL trip.
Again, you're focusing too much on his start to the year and ignoring the end. Did you watch any of his post-May starts?
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Post by amfox1 on Jan 4, 2015 23:12:08 GMT -5
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Post by bluechip on Jan 4, 2015 23:41:18 GMT -5
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Post by mgoetze on Jan 5, 2015 2:07:13 GMT -5
Shields reportedly has a 5/$110m offer (from an unknown team) - that is way too much.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 5, 2015 7:06:58 GMT -5
Sheilds career:
Fenway 5.42 ERA .808 OPS MFYville 6.35 ERA .888 OPS Rogers 4.09 ERA .793 OPS Canmden 3.81 ERA .681 OPS Tropicana 3.31 ERA .606 OPS
Kaufman 4.20 ERA .761 OPS
At his age, this is what he will be regressing from. He needs a Tropicana Field to pitch in.
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Post by jmei on Jan 5, 2015 7:41:31 GMT -5
That's a misleading way of trying to account for park effects. He's only faced the Red Sox offenses in Fenway and the Yankee offenses in Yankee Stadium, and those two teams have perennially been the best offenses in the league that almost every pitcher will have performed worse against.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 5, 2015 7:58:31 GMT -5
By comparison, do you think the Red Sox offence over the years have put up a .808 OPS against the league at Fenway ? Have the Blue Jays or Yankees really been that good ?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 5, 2015 7:59:17 GMT -5
By comparison, do you think the Red Sox offence over the years have put up a .808 OPS against the league at Fenway ? Have the Blue Jays or Yankees really been that good ?
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Post by jmei on Jan 5, 2015 8:03:14 GMT -5
By comparison, do you think the Red Sox offence over the years have put up a .808 OPS against the league at Fenway ? Have the Blue Jays or Yankees really been that good ? Since 2006 (when Shields debuted), the Red Sox at home have a collective .283/.357/.456/.813 line. So, yeah, not the best way to try and figure out park effects.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 5, 2015 8:58:15 GMT -5
By comparison, do you think the Red Sox offence over the years have put up a .808 OPS against the league at Fenway ? Have the Blue Jays or Yankees really been that good ? Since 2006 (when Shields debuted), the Red Sox at home have a collective .283/.357/.456/.813 line. So, yeah, not the best way to try and figure out park effects. So effectively not someone who seems like a $20+ million pitcher for Fenway in his prime, let alone his decline. I'd be shocked if the Red Sox even had an ounce of interest in him.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 5, 2015 9:48:01 GMT -5
By comparison, do you think the Red Sox offence over the years have put up a .808 OPS against the league at Fenway ? Have the Blue Jays or Yankees really been that good ? Since 2006 (when Shields debuted), the Red Sox at home have a collective .283/.357/.456/.813 line. So, yeah, not the best way to try and figure out park effects. I agree but a great way to figure out Shields. In his prime, he was about a league average pitcher against the American League East relative to park size and is about to sign a long term contract in his regression years. Is that a fair way to state it ? The parks I listed are the parks he's pitched in the most.
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 5, 2015 15:20:23 GMT -5
Sox signed Mitch Boggs. Was pretty good from 2010-2012, had an awful 2013, missed all of 2014. Seems like a decent guy to take a chance on in ST
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Post by charliezink16 on Jan 5, 2015 16:40:28 GMT -5
Sox signed Mitch Boggs. Was pretty good from 2010-2012, had an awful 2013, missed all of 2014. Seems like a decent guy to take a chance on in ST @bradfo: Per source, besides Boggs, 2 other minor league deals with major league invites to ST agreed to by Red Sox: C/OF Luke Montz, SS Jeff Bianchi
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 6, 2015 6:56:53 GMT -5
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Post by soxfanatic on Jan 7, 2015 16:42:24 GMT -5
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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 7, 2015 17:10:26 GMT -5
Oops, years long lurker with a username for however long. Behind Tazawa things obviously get murky, and people underrate the value Miller brought to this team even before this past breakout year. I can't see Workman being more than an average reliever, until he proves otherwise. Matt Barnes if he ever recreates that parachute changeup he pulled out against the O's (Maybe yanks?) I can see being a good 7th inning guy. My issue is I'm in the camp that was actually impressee with Layne. A side arming lefty that has 3 fastballs essentially with a decent breaking pitch is more than a loogy, but less than a shutdown guy. With Varvaro a st lookaround, and breslow scaring me. I'd like to see the sox go after a power arm. Miller, bard when he was on, and delcarmen were important parts of winning teams
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Jan 8, 2015 9:15:54 GMT -5
Oops, years long lurker with a username for however long. Behind Tazawa things obviously get murky, and people underrate the value Miller brought to this team even before this past breakout year. I can't see Workman being more than an average reliever, until he proves otherwise. Matt Barnes if he ever recreates that parachute changeup he pulled out against the O's (Maybe yanks?) I can see being a good 7th inning guy. My issue is I'm in the camp that was actually impressee with Layne. A side arming lefty that has 3 fastballs essentially with a decent breaking pitch is more than a loogy, but less than a shutdown guy. With Varvaro a st lookaround, and breslow scaring me. I'd like to see the sox go after a power arm. Miller, bard when he was on, and delcarmen were important parts of winning teams What about Mujica and the 1.78 ERA he put up in the 2nd half of the season? That sounds like the perfect backup plan to Koji. And between Workman and Varvaro I think you have 2 6th-7th inning guys. Koji as the closer Tazawa/Mujica as your setup/backup closers Workman/Varvaro in the 6th-7th 2 of Breslow/Wright/Spruill/Layne/Britton as backend bullpen or long relievers Now I'd like to see someone with a better or more consistent recent track record than Layne/Spruill/Britton/Breslow at the backend of the pen, but that's a solid bullpen. And if someone really struggles you have the ones who didn't make the opening day roster plus Barnes/Escobar/Hembree/Celestino/etc in AAA to come up. Just like the starting rotation, the Sox are loading up on cheaper 6th-7th inning relievers and hoping 1 or 2 catches fire rather than overpaying for guys like Romo and Miller.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 8, 2015 9:28:11 GMT -5
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jan 8, 2015 9:56:19 GMT -5
Talk to me when they do that. When we know what they gave up for Hamels. What they gave to Scherzer.
I'm pretty sure the Red Sox too have looked into Hamels and Scherzer.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 8, 2015 9:59:33 GMT -5
Maybe it has something to do with there being 25 players on a team, not 5. Crazy concept but hey, who knows, it could work.
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Post by elguapo on Jan 8, 2015 10:02:26 GMT -5
The bullpen is okay as is but an obvious area to upgrade with a shutdown arm - 1 or 2 injuries and it could turn into a mess.
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