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2014-15 offseason discussion
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Post by sarasoxer on Jan 8, 2015 10:51:59 GMT -5
No surprise here. I strongly suspected that the Sox couldn't go on "wishin' & hopin'" which is where I think they are. Koji can't last forever, Tazawa is a hit an inning guy, Mujica was bad for the last part of 2013 and the first half at least of 2014. Those are our best guys! If they all don't perform to the their highest levels, we will lose more than our share in the late innings. I keep harping for a couple of power arms. In my mind Workman and even Barnes don't quite fit that bill.
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Post by jclmontana on Jan 8, 2015 11:27:31 GMT -5
If I remember correctly, Koji was acquired at a point when the sox did not "need" him. Which is to say the front office has been and will be opportunistic feeders in the market. The front office is always going to look for upgrades at reasonable costs at all positions, but it seems as if relief pitching is where significant upgrades can be achieved relatively late in the off-season.
In addition to adding around the margins, it would not shock me if the front office did acquire a top of the rotation starter. Not because what they have is all that bad, but, despite the upside, there are more than a few question marks, and the potential for mediocrity and worse is very real. Keeping their options open to potentially acquiring a top pitcher is not the same as building an uber-team. If it makes sense to upgrade, they would do it in a second. It is sort of the MFY strategy when they pounced on Damon and a few others: sit back, talk up what you have, then upgrade like hell if you can.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 9, 2015 1:25:06 GMT -5
From the KLaw chat:
Amy (Seattle)
Would you make Blake Swihart virtually untouchable for the sox or is he an asset you'd trade for a frontline SP? (even the one year guys?) Klaw (1:57 PM)
Wouldn't trade him for any one-year guy. Potential grade-60 or better everyday catcher. . . . Corey (NYC)
Swihart ready next year - trade Vazquez for SP or do some sort of platoon ? Klaw (2:12 PM)
Trade. Too good to be a backup. Both guys look like starters to me.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jan 9, 2015 12:29:20 GMT -5
Rob Bradford ?@bradfo 24 sec. Farrell noted last night would like reliever who can get RHH out. Per source, doesn't appear Red Sox going hard after Badenhop at moment
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Post by soxfanatic on Jan 9, 2015 12:34:04 GMT -5
Peter Gammons ?@pgammo 20 sec. Lot of teams in on minor league FA Carlos Peguero, Boston included. Love the comp to "lefthanded Wily Mo Pena power."
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 9, 2015 12:52:23 GMT -5
Peter Gammons ?@pgammo 20 sec. Lot of teams in on minor league FA Carlos Peguero, Boston included. Love the comp to "lefthanded Wily Mo Pena power." 27 year old left fielder. 30 HRs for Omaha/PCL (KC). If I was a free agent minor league outfielder, a team with a crowded outfield wouldn't be my first choice. Also, in some circles, Willie Mo Pena is a buzzword which roughly translates to AAAA.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jan 9, 2015 13:22:30 GMT -5
Peter Gammons ?@pgammo 20 sec. Lot of teams in on minor league FA Carlos Peguero, Boston included. Love the comp to "lefthanded Wily Mo Pena power." 27 year old left fielder. 30 HRs for Omaha/PCL (KC). If I was a free agent minor league outfielder, a team with a crowded outfield wouldn't be my first choice. Also, in some circles, Willie Mo Pena is a buzzword which roughly translates to AAAA. Well, in some ways, it's actually not a bad place for a guy like that to get a one-year contract. It's a very high-profile minor league system, so a crushing year at Pawtucket would mean more than in a lot of other AAA towns. And while the OF is crowded now, it's a trade and a Hanley Ramirez injury away from needing someone in Boston. But still, yeah, it'd take Boston overpaying for me to choose them over someone else. It's not so much the OF that would concern me but the 40-man roster. There's just not a lot of room on that ... I'd think they'd shuttle Brentz up and down instead of adding me to the 40-man roster. As an aside, just reading the name Wily Mo Pena makes me exasperated. I couldn't stand watching that guy flail at the baseball all the time.
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Post by dmaineah on Jan 9, 2015 14:21:06 GMT -5
Peter Gammons ?@pgammo 20 sec. Lot of teams in on minor league FA Carlos Peguero, Boston included. Love the comp to "lefthanded Wily Mo Pena power." 27 year old left fielder. 30 HRs for Omaha/PCL (KC). If I was a free agent minor league outfielder, a team with a crowded outfield wouldn't be my first choice. Also, in some circles, Willie Mo Pena is a buzzword which roughly translates to AAAA. I think he would be a reasonable addition to the Paw Sox OF/DH mix
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 9, 2015 14:26:14 GMT -5
Not a lot different than Corey Brown, no?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 9, 2015 20:32:37 GMT -5
Not a lot different than Corey Brown, no? Bat yes (or maybe better but 3/1 K/BB ratio) but Corey Brown was a decent defensive center fielder.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 9, 2015 21:20:12 GMT -5
Peter Gammons: The Red Sox appreciate that there will be adjustments for Castillo and Mookie Betts playing 162 game schedules, which is why they have been cautious about trading other outfielders. What is hard to fathom about the Phillies is that they have taken a totally opposite rebuilding approach, even though they, like the Braves, are not going to be contenders until 2017. Ruben Amaro has repeatedly asked for Betts and Blake Swihart for Cole Hamels, which for Boston means trading their everyday leadoff hitter at age 22 as well as their best prospect plus at least $100M, knowing that at age 33 (not one won 16 games last year) pitchers today begin their decline. One NL club wondered why the Phillies didn’t start with 20-year old center fielder Manuel Margot. “We have him as their best tools prospect,” said the GM. “He’s a classic Pat Gillick player—speed, power, great defensive skills. If you trade Hamels and ask someone to take on $100M, you don’t ask for their best everyday young player.” Other interesting stuff as well but most of it has been said before. Gammons
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Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Jan 9, 2015 22:26:39 GMT -5
I just don't understand RAJ or the Phillies fans that think their gonna get Mookie and Blake+ and they don't eat cash. Something leaked about the Tigers are gonna go hard after Scherzer because of questions with Price, and injuries with Verlander and Sanchez. The same guy said most-likely would trade Price. He's the guy I would want. I would be all over him regardless of the "Ortiz incident". He is a Ace in my book.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 10, 2015 0:21:51 GMT -5
Peter Gammons: ...Ruben Amaro has repeatedly asked for Betts and Blake Swihart for Cole Hamels, which for Boston means trading their everyday leadoff hitter at age 22 as well as their best prospect plus at least $100M, knowing that at age 33 (not one won 16 games last year) pitchers today begin their decline. One NL club wondered why the Phillies didn’t start with 20-year old center fielder Manuel Margot. “We have him as their best tools prospect,” said the GM. “He’s a classic Pat Gillick player—speed, power, great defensive skills. If you trade Hamels and ask someone to take on $100M, you don’t ask for their best everyday young player.” ... Given his upside, a lot of us could be forgiven for thinking of Margot as just that, a future candidate for " ...best everyday young player". For all the head-scratching about Gammons' mystery-posts, and the cosmic tweets he often launches, this statement is crystal clear. I can't even begin to understand Amaro's thinking. He must be familiar with the Sox' system, and he must have gotten some reports on Margot. Start with that player, and build from there. There's a nice group of pitching prospects, and lottery tickets such as Asuaje to pick from. There's got to be a trade in there somewhere. It's almost as if there's some desperation, that he doesn't feel he has the flexibility to wait what may be no more than a year and a half to two years for Margot to be ready. Instead, he wants two players he can throw in there right now. Maybe that says something.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 10, 2015 0:40:48 GMT -5
Peter Gammons: ...Ruben Amaro has repeatedly asked for Betts and Blake Swihart for Cole Hamels, which for Boston means trading their everyday leadoff hitter at age 22 as well as their best prospect plus at least $100M, knowing that at age 33 (not one won 16 games last year) pitchers today begin their decline. One NL club wondered why the Phillies didn’t start with 20-year old center fielder Manuel Margot. “We have him as their best tools prospect,” said the GM. “He’s a classic Pat Gillick player—speed, power, great defensive skills. If you trade Hamels and ask someone to take on $100M, you don’t ask for their best everyday young player.” ... Given his upside, a lot of us could be forgiven for thinking of Margot as just that, a future candidate for " ...best everyday young player". For all the head-scratching about Gammons' mystery-posts, and the cosmic tweets he often launches, this statement is crystal clear. I can't even begin to understand Amaro's thinking. He must be familiar with the Sox' system, and he must have gotten some reports on Margot. Start with that player, and build from there. There's a nice group of pitching prospects, and lottery tickets such as Asuaje to pick from. There's got to be a trade in there somewhere. It's almost as if there's some desperation, that he doesn't feel he has the flexibility to wait what may be no more than a year and a half to two years for Margot to be ready. Instead, he wants two players he can throw in there right now. Maybe that says something. A while back, I read a quote attributed to an anonymous GM that indicated the feeling among GMs is that Amaro gets fixated on a particular player or package and doesn't budge no matter what you attempt to negotiate. He also doesn't listen to his advisers, he doesn't care what Gillick would go for.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 10, 2015 1:14:17 GMT -5
Just saw this:
Adam McCalvy ?@adammccalvy 8h8 hours ago Jeff Bianchi, who appeared for #Brewers in each of the past 3 yrs, has signed a MiLB deal with Boston w/ camp invite.
He's played SS, 3B & 2B.
From MLBTradeRumors:
Among the Red Sox players signing minor league deals with spring invites, in addition to the previously-reported Mitchell Boggs, are middle infielder Jeff Bianchi and catcher Luke Montz, the club announced (via Jason Mastrodonato of MassLive.com, on Twitter). Bianchi is a 28-year-old who has struggled in limited MLB action over the last three years with the Brewers, but has slashed .299/.349/.428 at Triple-A over parts of three seasons. Montz, 31, has seen even more limited time in the majors but owns a solid .232/.318/.456 slash over 781 career plate appearances at Triple-A.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 10, 2015 12:16:58 GMT -5
Sox have signed Blake Tekotte to a minor league contract. 27 year old, some power/speed, plays all 3 outfield positions. www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tekotbl01.shtmlMatt Eddy ?@matteddyba 11m11 minutes ago #RedSox sign SS Jeff Bianchi and OF Blake Tekotte, the 2008 third-rounder who has shown some power, some speed in his career That should round out the starters at Pawtucket: Swihart Shaw Coyle Marrero Cecchini Brentz JBJ Tekotte (RF)
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jan 10, 2015 13:51:19 GMT -5
I just don't understand RAJ or the Phillies fans that think their gonna get Mookie and Blake+ and they don't eat cash. Something leaked about the Tigers are gonna go hard after Scherzer because of questions with Price, and injuries with Verlander and Sanchez. The same guy said most-likely would trade Price. He's the guy I would want. I would be all over him regardless of the "Ortiz incident". He is a Ace in my book. Lester had a slightly better season than Price. Lester had a berrer ERA, ERA+, and WHIP. Their bWARS were identical. Price is a workhorse, but he isn't quite the pitcher he was earlier in his career. Price will be a free agent after next season. Almost certainly he will seek Lester money, and probably get it. Even a trade at this point will cost a lot, and it will be for a one season rental. The Sox aren't going to pay him $150M. So trading for him makes no sense to me.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 10, 2015 16:50:45 GMT -5
I just don't understand RAJ or the Phillies fans that think their gonna get Mookie and Blake+ and they don't eat cash. Something leaked about the Tigers are gonna go hard after Scherzer because of questions with Price, and injuries with Verlander and Sanchez. The same guy said most-likely would trade Price. He's the guy I would want. I would be all over him regardless of the "Ortiz incident". He is a Ace in my book. Lester had a slightly better season than Price. Lester had a berrer ERA, ERA+, and WHIP. Their bWARS were identical. Price is a workhorse, but he isn't quite the pitcher he was earlier in his career. Price will be a free agent after next season. Almost certainly he will seek Lester money, and probably get it. Even a trade at this point will cost a lot, and it will be for a one season rental. The Sox aren't going to pay him $150M. So trading for him makes no sense to me. The A's traded Samardzia for a backup catcher and what is now their utilityman. I'm not so sure it will cost a lot and, we have a rental of our own, Victorino.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jan 10, 2015 23:00:29 GMT -5
The A's are way different than other teams for better or for worse. I don't think they should be used as a barometer. I don't think the market will.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 11, 2015 1:27:44 GMT -5
The A's are way different than other teams for better or for worse. I don't think they should be used as a barometer. I don't think the market will. If teams were willing to trade high value for a one year rental, Price, Zimmermann, Cueto & Iwakuma wouldn't still be where they are. I doubt if buying teams are anywhere near what the general public thinks the rentals will return. I also doubt though that the Sox will do anything until they see what they have in the spring, Victorino and Craig's health would be key items for both the Sox and for prospective trade partners. Let's also remember that Porcello was effectively a rental swap with Wilson as the trade balancer. To me, this year is clearly a buyers market for pitching and clearly a sellers market for right handed position players with any power. If Victorino and Craig are healthy, the stars lined up well and we also have a market basket full of trade balancers, Coyle, Ranaudo, Workman, etc, etc. ADD: With all the pitching on the AAA horizon, another one year rental starter isn't the end of the world. Worst case, there will be a lot of quality free agent pitchers and one year rentals available next year. Much more than this year. Next year is looking like a pitchers buying market as well. I wouldn't expect the Sox to extend any of those four, they are more likely to go for the draft pick. I am hopeful they extend Porcello, it's an age thing. Besides the above 4 plus Porcello), next year's free agents will also likely include Samardzija, Grenke (opt out), Masterson, Fister, Latos & Kennedy. The rentals could include Strasburg & Cashner and I'm sure more,
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 11, 2015 4:55:37 GMT -5
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Post by mgoetze on Jan 11, 2015 5:37:32 GMT -5
Lester had a berrer ERA, ERA+, and WHIP. Their bWARS were identical. Rattling off statistics is nice but perhaps you should try to draw some sort of conclusion from them as well? Identical bWAR should tell you that (a) Price is better on a per-IP basis than Lester (Lester had 27? more IP than Price) and (b) Lester benefited from significantly better defenses playing behind him.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jan 11, 2015 7:39:55 GMT -5
The article notes that the tax rises, as most know, from 17.5% the first year of overage to 40% for the third consecutive overage. It does not note that the rate becomes 50% in the 4th consecutive year and ensuing ones. Through 2013 the following shows how teams have faired in luxury tax liabilities. Reference Wikipedia. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luxury_tax_(sports)Upon information the Dodgers had a 2014 payroll of 277M and the Yankees of 228M. The threshold then was set at 189M so you can make rough computations. Sorry that this is difficult to read. Team 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Threshold 117 120.5 128 136.5 148 155 162 170 178 178 178 Yankees 11.8 26 34.1 26 23.88 26.9 25.69 18 13.8 18.9 29.1 Red Sox 3.15 4.1 0.498 6.06 1.49 3.4 in years 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011 Angels 0.927 in 2004 Tigers 1.3 in 2008 Dodgers 9.9 in 2013
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Post by soxfanatic on Jan 11, 2015 11:14:58 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 11, 2015 11:24:47 GMT -5
I'm kind of surprised that Perez didn't get a longer long-shot.
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