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2014-15 offseason discussion
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Post by soxfanatic on Jan 13, 2015 9:01:26 GMT -5
@pgammo: Scouts I know liked Ogando's workout. Red Sox, Dodgers aggressive, know next week
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 13, 2015 9:16:08 GMT -5
Any word if Ogando wants to start? He has flip flopped back and forth every season.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jan 13, 2015 10:27:32 GMT -5
That's pretty interesting ... it's not the end-all be-all of analyzing a team, but still kinda cool. That's a pretty big lead for the Red Sox, 20% higher than the #2 team. It definitely goes with Ben Cherington's clear aversion to downside risk and focus on that at least as much as upside potential. And, also, whew, the Phillies. Although, let's be honest, there's still plenty of downside risk in the rotation.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 13, 2015 10:48:26 GMT -5
That's pretty interesting ... it's not the end-all be-all of analyzing a team, but still kinda cool. That's a pretty big lead for the Red Sox, 20% higher than the #2 team. It definitely goes with Ben Cherington's clear aversion to downside risk and focus on that at least as much as upside potential. And, also, whew, the Phillies. Although, let's be honest, there's still plenty of downside risk in the rotation. And there are also quite a few replacement options in AAA. The point of this exercise for me is that we won't be crushed by injuries or non-performance nearly as much as any other team might be.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jan 13, 2015 12:40:01 GMT -5
That's pretty interesting ... it's not the end-all be-all of analyzing a team, but still kinda cool. That's a pretty big lead for the Red Sox, 20% higher than the #2 team. It definitely goes with Ben Cherington's clear aversion to downside risk and focus on that at least as much as upside potential. And, also, whew, the Phillies. Although, let's be honest, there's still plenty of downside risk in the rotation. And there are also quite a few replacement options in AAA. The point of this exercise for me is that we won't be crushed by injuries or non-performance nearly as much as any other team might be. Yeah, for sure ... but mostly on the position-player side, as far as I'm concerned. To me, the Sox are a very, very good team when it comes to position players, maybe a great one. They have depth that gives them a high floor, but they have superstar potential that also gives them a really high ceiling. And they're even pretty good defensively, too. They can go left-right throughout the lineup, and they even have some speed with Mookie and Castillo. Of the 17 guys on the depth chart in that exercise, ALL 17 project for 1 WAR or more. That's great. But the pitching is still thin. As much as we like to say that Ben went for depth over The Ace, we're still depending on Buchholz and Masterson to not be what they were last year and Kelly to maybe take a step. And the depth at AAA ... well, maybe. I mean, it's really good depth compared to other teams, but NONE of them are really what I'd consider even close to reliable for next year. Maybe one or two of them work out for next year, but it may take them months of cycling through terrible starts to find them. That's the definite downside of the "quantity over quality" approach we've got among the starters. Personally, and I know this is not shared by almost anyone else (holla, eric van!), but Steven Wright's the only guy whom I'd actually feel comfortable seeing called up. In all likelihood later in the season at least one of Barnes, Owens, Johnson, Rodriguez or Ranaudo will show enough, but it's still the potential Achilles heel of the team, for sure. But, hey, it is what it is. The potential is there for a good rotation, too, and maybe by July the Sox have five good starters, Porcello has taken the next step to front the rotation, and the three lefties in Pawtucket all look like they're ready ... you know, Hot Stove optimism! That would make the Red Sox a Seattle 2001 style juggernaut ...
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Post by Guidas on Jan 13, 2015 16:51:28 GMT -5
And there are also quite a few replacement options in AAA. The point of this exercise for me is that we won't be crushed by injuries or non-performance nearly as much as any other team might be. Yeah, for sure ... but mostly on the position-player side, as far as I'm concerned. To me, the Sox are a very, very good team when it comes to position players, maybe a great one. They have depth that gives them a high floor, but they have superstar potential that also gives them a really high ceiling. And they're even pretty good defensively, too. They can go left-right throughout the lineup, and they even have some speed with Mookie and Castillo. Of the 17 guys on the depth chart in that exercise, ALL 17 project for 1 WAR or more. That's great. But the pitching is still thin. As much as we like to say that Ben went for depth over The Ace, we're still depending on Buchholz and Masterson to not be what they were last year and Kelly to maybe take a step. And the depth at AAA ... well, maybe. I mean, it's really good depth compared to other teams, but NONE of them are really what I'd consider even close to reliable for next year. Maybe one or two of them work out for next year, but it may take them months of cycling through terrible starts to find them. That's the definite downside of the "quantity over quality" approach we've got among the starters. Personally, and I know this is not shared by almost anyone else (holla, eric van!), but Steven Wright's the only guy whom I'd actually feel comfortable seeing called up. In all likelihood later in the season at least one of Barnes, Owens, Johnson, Rodriguez or Ranaudo will show enough, but it's still the potential Achilles heel of the team, for sure. But, hey, it is what it is. The potential is there for a good rotation, too, and maybe by July the Sox have five good starters, Porcello has taken the next step to front the rotation, and the three lefties in Pawtucket all look like they're ready ... you know, Hot Stove optimism! That would make the Red Sox a Seattle 2001 style juggernaut ... Could not agree more. Still holding back because the off season is still very much in play, but if this is the rotation they're going with on opening day then you have a Ferrari that's using the battery and spark plugs from a 4 year old Camry. Looks like it should outscore everything on the road but it's just average or worse.
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Post by greenmonstah on Jan 13, 2015 18:22:47 GMT -5
Ogando could be a nice bullpen arm.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,501
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Post by nomar on Jan 13, 2015 18:46:23 GMT -5
We may not have an ace but we are deep IMO.
Ogando would be a solid add if he's willing to relieve.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jan 13, 2015 19:41:47 GMT -5
We can definitely use higher quality pitching, starting and relieving, but I also highly doubt that the Red Sox are done. I imagine that they are reasonably pursuing opportunities to improve the team, and that there may be a different picture come opening day.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 14, 2015 21:02:43 GMT -5
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Post by Don Caballero on Jan 14, 2015 22:22:39 GMT -5
Grant Brisbee is flat out amazing.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 15, 2015 0:30:57 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 15, 2015 6:50:14 GMT -5
I'll let the mods decide if this is going to need it's own thread: Ken Rosenthal ?@ken_Rosenthal 2m2 minutes ago MLB talking pace-of-game changes with union; pitch clock coming to AA and AAA. Story with @jonmorosi.... fb.me/6Z5OIA7HN
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 15, 2015 8:48:46 GMT -5
A pitch clock is a necessity, no doubt about it. Also, a batter shouldn't be able to step out once he steps in. If there is a pitch clock it's not necessary. Only situations I can think of that make sense to allow is if there is something on the field that distracts him like a bird or trash or drunk fan, but other than that stay in the box.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 15, 2015 8:57:18 GMT -5
Did you read any of it? 2/3rd of it was a troll arguing that Votto sucks because he doesn't get enough RBIs. It was actually kinda funny. twitter.com/joeynotto
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 15, 2015 8:59:19 GMT -5
I'm already annoyed that I'm going to have to pay 99 cents to read Speier articles.
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Post by dirtywater on Jan 15, 2015 9:00:24 GMT -5
Subscribe to the Globe. It was already worth it before they got Speier. Reading Boston.com is now like reading the engravings of rambling lunatics on bathroom stalls. Sad because it used to be a pretty good website.
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Post by dirtywater on Jan 15, 2015 9:05:36 GMT -5
Did you read any of it? 2/3rd of it was a troll arguing that Votto sucks because he doesn't get enough RBIs. It was actually kinda funny. twitter.com/joeynottocannot tell if that guy is an amazing troll or he's the dumbest baseball mind on the planet. I think he actually said he'd prefer Ryan Howard over Joey Votto because he had more homers and RBIs this year
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 15, 2015 9:29:26 GMT -5
Did you read any of it? 2/3rd of it was a troll arguing that Votto sucks because he doesn't get enough RBIs. It was actually kinda funny. twitter.com/joeynottocannot tell if that guy is an amazing troll or he's the dumbest baseball mind on the planet. I think he actually said he'd prefer Ryan Howard over Joey Votto because he had more homers and RBIs this year It wasn't the comments that got significant play last year, it was the basic concept behind the graph, plotting present strength vs future strength. If I remember correctly, Norm did a revised edition of it. This graqph in particular is an interesting concept:
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 15, 2015 9:37:40 GMT -5
No, they did a version of mine. I didn't get that from anywhere else. I took the numbers from BP and made the quadrant analysis.
Add: The index for team success was taken from Baseball Reference's at the end of 2013.
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Post by dirtywater on Jan 15, 2015 9:45:06 GMT -5
Agreed, the graph is a great concept about the state of teams in baseball. I think Grant said it was mostly for fun and I wouldn't put too much stock in exactly where a team is positioned. Yankees and Phillies being almost off the graph is obviously for comedic effect.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 15, 2015 9:52:56 GMT -5
No, they did a version of mine. I didn't get that from anywhere else. I took the numbers from BP and made the quadrant analysis. Add: The index for team success was taken from Baseball Reference's at the end of 2013. I remember we had a pretty decent discussion regarding the general concept. LOL, feel free to do it again, interesting concept to view teams from a point in time perspective. This guy might not be very good but on the other hand where he places the teams in general isn't bad, I don't see anything outrageously bad there. . . . Very cool pic. Landsdowne St., 1900
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Post by jrffam05 on Jan 15, 2015 11:00:19 GMT -5
This is a great way to categorize teams.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jan 15, 2015 11:06:54 GMT -5
Woo-hoo! BSOHL sighting! The unofficial start of spring training for me ... always seems to fall right around mid-January. Who had January 15 in the pool? Some other squares on my Spring Training Bingo card: - Story explaining the key adjustment/improvement/health fact that explain why this is the year Clay turns it around - Quote after pitchers-and-catchers appear with some variation of "no one can replace Jon Lester" - Picture of David Ortiz showing how much he's worked out and how slim he is - Story explaining how Bogaerts has "adjusted," still has "star potential," and is ready for a Big Year - An article on Porcello that mentions Julio Lugo (bonus win if its by Speier) - Piece on Hanley mentioning how playing in Boston fits his personality and how playing left field will keep him healthy - Medical revelation that could change the game for a Sox player (e.g. WMB's eyesight last year)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 15, 2015 11:16:52 GMT -5
Woo-hoo! BSOHL sighting! The unofficial start of spring training for me ... always seems to fall right around mid-January. Who had January 15 in the pool? Some other squares on my Spring Training Bingo card: - Story explaining the key adjustment/improvement/health fact that explain why this is the year Clay turns it around - Quote after pitchers-and-catchers appear with some variation of "no one can replace Jon Lester" - Picture of David Ortiz showing how much he's worked out and how slim he is - Story explaining how Bogaerts has "adjusted," still has "star potential," and is ready for a Big Year - An article on Porcello that mentions Julio Lugo (bonus win if its by Speier) - Piece on Hanley mentioning how playing in Boston fits his personality and how playing left field will keep him healthy - Medical revelation that could change the game for a Sox player (e.g. WMB's eyesight last year) - The JohnTomandLarry presser at the start of camp is the free space, right? - How about a hatchet job about how Cherington needs to win this year or his job is in trouble? Seems like someone will write that.
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