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Buy, Sell, or Wait? (aka the Fire Sale Game Thread)
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Post by taftreign on Jun 25, 2014 18:53:39 GMT -5
Solid point on the IFA money if it has any chance of actually raising the pool to the "already spent" bonuses. I'd say I'm skeptical the team could get to where they needed with $1,881,700 available currently and I'd project the team to have somewhere in the neighborhood of $3.5 mil in commitments between Acosta and Espinoza alone. Any bonus slot pickups however would allow the team to either save some tax penalty dollars or sign an extra $100,000 to $250,000 prospect or two so it's not a moot point by any means. A few factors here. First, all of the other teams have more money than the Sox due to their finish last year and more importantly, there are always teams that don't intend to spend large amounts in the risky IFA market. I was thinking the 2 player numbers totaled $3.0m but even at $3.5m the $1.7m is obtainable, particularly if the Sox ate contract on a player to a small market team in contention. How many Carps does it take to generate under $2m ? That's not a lot to ask for, it's roughly equivalent to asking for a bag of hockey pucks. Not impossible but the question is can you get multiple draft slot bonuses. Here is an article that has the bonuses for each slot value and you're going to have to knock down a top 15 bonus slot to get you going quickly. After each teams first draft slot value the second slot values (31-60) range from $476,300 down to $325,900. www.baseballamerica.com/international/2014-15-mlb-international-bonus-pools-and-slot-values/
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 25, 2014 18:55:14 GMT -5
Pete Abraham ?@peteabe 6m Sign of the troubled times: saw two #RedSox players in the clubhouse looking at @mlbtraderumors on their iPads.
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Post by burythehammer on Jun 25, 2014 19:14:51 GMT -5
Why is that a sign of troubled times.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2014 19:45:08 GMT -5
Sell.
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Post by mredsox89 on Jun 25, 2014 20:13:05 GMT -5
They can "sell" without mortgaging 2015. If they think they have a realistic chance of signing Lester/know they are truly willing to go into 7 figures, you keep him. Same premise with Lackey/Koji. "Selling" on this team probably means abandoning Peavy at any cost, moving Doubront to the pen, and getting anything you can for any of your other relievers, Drew (if he is eligible to be moved), and maybe some mid level prospects.
It would be different if they didn't have the core + prospects + $ to be able to contend in 2015/2016, but it obviously changes if they really feel they are out of the Lester market
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 25, 2014 21:04:58 GMT -5
Sell, rebuild the team. Trade Lackey/Lester if the Sox don't plan on re-signing them, don't lose them for nothing.
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Post by klostrophobic on Jun 25, 2014 21:37:23 GMT -5
I see no harm in waiting. If you trade off pieces now will you get more than if you wait until the last possible moment at the trade deadline? I imagine the team will be 10 games out of the second wild card game by then and it'll be obvious to trade off guys like Drew, Pierzynski, Uehara, Peavy, et al., but there does still remain the possibility this team can go like 12-4 and be right back in it. The next 17 games are against some pretty mediocre-to-bad teams. Ten against the Cubs/Astros/White Sox.
Basically this team is garbage but outside of Oakland, Anaheim, and Seattle what teams are even any good? We have a month and almost a week to figure it out.
Everyone keeps referencing the number of teams above them, but I don't see how that is more relevant than the number of games they are behind the second wildcard. The Red Sox still need to make up the same number of games regardless if its one team or 10 in front of them. 7, 8 or whatever games it is now is a lot, but larger deficits have been overcome with much less time. Like, remember 2011?
Also, the thing with trading a lot of these guys like Drew, Pierzynski, Peavy and Capuano is that the in-house replacements for them might actually be better, so they could "sell" and still improve the team potentially.
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Post by jmei on Jun 25, 2014 21:52:58 GMT -5
Everyone keeps referencing the number of teams above them, but I don't see how that is more relevant than the number of games they are behind the second wildcard. The Red Sox still need to make up the same number of games regardless if its one team or 10 in front of them. 7, 8 or whatever games it is now is a lot, but larger deficits have been overcome with much less time. Like, remember 2011? This article explains why the number of teams matters. Not only do the Red Sox have to play really well going forward, they also have to hope that no team in the race manages to come close to matching their winning streak. They have to play seven games better than seven other teams, which is pretty difficult.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 25, 2014 22:12:33 GMT -5
The problem, as alluded to in the article Amfox linked to, is that there isn't even going to be much to buy. The only realistic options will likely be (1) to wait and "buy" in the sense that you hope the returns of Middlebrooks and Victorino, and the potential call ups of Betts and Cecchini spark something offensively, and/or the guys there already start hitting like they should, or (2) to sell.
But to be honest, they could do lots of "selling" while remaining competitive. Trading any starter other than Lackey, Lester, or Buchholz isn't even selling so much as clearing room.
"Sell" mode will happen if we start seeing relievers made available.
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Post by bigpupp on Jun 25, 2014 22:50:44 GMT -5
Everyone keeps referencing the number of teams above them, but I don't see how that is more relevant than the number of games they are behind the second wildcard. The Red Sox still need to make up the same number of games regardless if its one team or 10 in front of them. 7, 8 or whatever games it is now is a lot, but larger deficits have been overcome with much less time. Like, remember 2011? This article explains why the number of teams matters. Not only do the Red Sox have to play really well going forward, they also have to hope that no team in the race manages to come close to matching their winning streak. They have to play seven games better than seven other teams, which is pretty difficult. That's overstating it, though. They don't have to play 7 games better than all 7 teams. They only have to play 2 games better than a few of them, for example, and the ones they have to play 7 better than are in the division so they certainly control their own destiny. There is downside in waiting (players could get hurt) but there is much more upside in letting it all play out and either letting players build their stock or even letting the team get hot.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 25, 2014 23:16:18 GMT -5
If the Sox are pretty sure they have no shot with re-signing Lester then they need to be sellers and trade him.
If the Sox think they have a legit shot at re-signing Lester, they need to fork over the money to him, make sure Lackey sticks around in 2015, and re-sign Koji for a year or two so that they can maintain the stability of having one of the best closers in the game.
Those three guys would be essential to a possible bounce back year in 2015.
2014, meanwhile, is a lost cause, and has been for awhile.
The core of the Red Sox offense, which had a ton of depth, pretty much stops after Napoli's spot in the in order and this includes Ortiz, whose OPS, despite being the only consistent power threat in the lineup, had declined slightly and Pedroia, who is declining offensively.
This means the Sox should deal away AJP, Drew, Gomes, and Peavy. The Sox have to decide whether they want to try to re-sign Miller and/or Badenhop next year. If the answer is it's too expensive to keep them, then they would be on the trade block as well.
The problem with the above is that outside of Miller, Breslow, and Badenhop, none of those guys have much value in a trade, and Miller, Breslow, and Badenhop won't fetch that much as they are middle relievers.
So yeah, the Sox should sell, but if they determine that they have a legit shot at winning in 2015, then the Sox need to place a value on 2015 and keep the players who will contribute in 2015.
If they determine they need awhile to rebuild, then the Sox should/could deal anybody on the current 40 man roster other than Ortiz and Bogaerts.
Either way, the Sox aren't buyers this year unless they get somebody who can help them beyond this year, and that's not very likely.
The Sox aren't in the situation that Tampa is where Price is a goner and outside of Longoria, Myers, Cobb, and Archer, everybody else is up for grabs.
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Post by kman22 on Jun 25, 2014 23:21:05 GMT -5
Preface: I think they should sell, and think this front office will do so to the extent possible. That said, I'll note that "getting in front of the trade market" is not as easy and does not benefit the team as much as you might think. Like in life, most trades that occur in MLB don't get done until the deadline. At this early juncture of hot stove season, teams are feeling each other out in terms of who might be available and what they might cost. The guys that Boston most wants to move (think Peavy, Pierzynski, Drew, Doubront, Capuano, etc.) are not towards the top of any contender's wish list. Those are the kinds of guys that teams only trade for when they can't afford (in terms of trade cost) anyone better and have to settle. Those are the kinds of guys who only get moved right before the deadline when all the actually-good players have been picked over already (think Boston's acquisition of Erik Bedard in 2011). It's really tough to move them in June, when all the contenders are still kicking the tires on better players and hoping their prices come down. In theory, teams should be willing to pay more to acquire guys in June, because they then get an extra month of that player's services, but this has generally not been true in practice. To move them now, you'd have to essentially give them away for free, whereas if you wait another few weeks, some team may be desperate enough that they offer to pick up most of their salary and/or offer an actual prospect in return. Of course, you have to balance that potential benefit with the cost that comes from keeping these guys on the roster (i.e., the crowding out of younger players). Sometimes it might make sense to just DFA a guy if you don't think the offers are going to get any better and he's blocking a guy you really need to find playing time for. But I'm not sure we've reached that point with the above names yet. Meanwhile, the players the Red Sox have who might actually have great trade value (think Lester, Lackey, Uehara, Miller, etc.) are also guys they might want back (at least to some degree) in 2015, which makes trading them a tricky proposition. The front office has to balance the estimated likelihood and the benefit of their potential re-signing with what they might fetch in a trade this summer. That's a difficult balance to strike, especially because the more you explore their trade market this summer (to better estimate the latter half of the above equation), the less likely they might be to re-sign (because noone likes getting floated in trade rumors). ^ This. Except for 1 question: can Drew be traded? You aren't allowed to trade someone for 6 months after signing a contract, so... Didn't see an answer to this, so I'll take a Crack at it. I believe that the 6 month rule is applied as if the player has a no trade. If Drew agrees to a trade, he's absolutely tradeable.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 25, 2014 23:47:37 GMT -5
A few factors here. First, all of the other teams have more money than the Sox due to their finish last year and more importantly, there are always teams that don't intend to spend large amounts in the risky IFA market. I was thinking the 2 player numbers totaled $3.0m but even at $3.5m the $1.7m is obtainable, particularly if the Sox ate contract on a player to a small market team in contention. How many Carps does it take to generate under $2m ? That's not a lot to ask for, it's roughly equivalent to asking for a bag of hockey pucks. Not impossible but the question is can you get multiple draft slot bonuses. Here is an article that has the bonuses for each slot value and you're going to have to knock down a top 15 bonus slot to get you going quickly. After each teams first draft slot value the second slot values (31-60) range from $476,300 down to $325,900. www.baseballamerica.com/international/2014-15-mlb-international-bonus-pools-and-slot-values/Thanks for pointing that article out. It appears though that the Sox are out of luck but more because of this: "Teams are allowed to trade for up to an additional 50 percent of their international bonus pool, so a team with a $2 million pool can acquire an addition $1 million in pool space." That means they can't get to $3m. On the other hand it would seem that they can get to a point that involves a lower penalty for exceeding their limit,ie, keeping the penalties to one year rather than two. If BA's speculation is true, the Cubs and Rangers should actively be looking for teams to trade cap room to.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 26, 2014 4:18:36 GMT -5
To the people who have voted "Too early to make a judgment" - What kind of apocalyptic sign are you waiting for? We currently trail SEVEN teams for the second wild card spot. I voted that way, but admittedly it was in the legalese spirit of this great exchange: Interviewer: What surprises should we be looking for this year? Bill James: [Something along the lines of] I have no idea. If we could know that, they wouldn't be surprises, would they? Now, what the interviewer actually meant was, "what sort of things do you anticipate that will be surprises for other people?" But Bill took him literally. This question was really, what do you think the Sox position is likely to be at the trade deadline? I agree that we're 90% or more likely to be sellers. But there's no need to make that judgment yet. So I voted for "too soon." OTOH, it is very much appropriate to start thinking about what they should do in the likelihood that they are sellers. But for my brain, "it's looking more and more like we're going to want to blow this up when the time comes" just doesn't translate to "blow it up."
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Post by jrffam05 on Jun 26, 2014 10:25:04 GMT -5
COO Sam Kenedy on WEEI fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/06/26/red-sox-coo-sam-kennedy-on-dc-fans-would-completely-understand-a-move-towards-the-following-year/Really our two biggest trade pieces are Lester and Lackey. (Uehara is solid also but he won't bring back a ton due to age/contract). Drew, Gomes, Peavy, Doubrount, our catchers and bullpen depth can all be traded but they really won't bring that much back in return. The question with Lester and Lackey is if we are bringing them back. Lester on a contract extension, and Lackey on a workaround to the team option (that he agreed to and should honor). Personally for me I bring back both of them on extensions, keep Buchholz in the 5 hole, and fill the other two rotation spots internally. Although, and I've said this before, I don't think the Red Sox are going to extend Lester. They will make a push to resign him before the trade deadline, like Hammels/Samard, but the reason I am skeptical is because there really is no new information pending that should change the FO's mind. They already know where they value Lester, and they already know what contract he wants, so their minds should be pretty much made up. I'm ok with resigning him, I'm ok with trading him, but I am NOT OK with letting him walk for a draft pick. That's really my biggest fear this trade deadline. Ortiz and Pedroia both make great trade candidates on paper, but there is 0.00000 chance they get traded. And that's coming from someone who loves hypotheticals and using extremes to prove my points.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 26, 2014 11:05:41 GMT -5
(Uehara is solid also but he won't bring back a ton due to age/contract). It's been pretty well established that the quality of your closer has a large, disproportionate impact on your odds of winning the WS once you make the post-season. It's rare that a closer anywhere as good as Koji is available at the trade deadline. I think he'd fetch plenty.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jun 26, 2014 11:15:25 GMT -5
(Uehara is solid also but he won't bring back a ton due to age/contract). It's been pretty well established that the quality of your closer has a large, disproportionate impact on your odds of winning the WS once you make the post-season. It's rare that a closer anywhere as good as Koji is available at the trade deadline. I think he'd fetch plenty. I agree with this. I think some people would be surprised at what koji would fetch. In the right market I think a top 50 ish prospect is possible.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 26, 2014 11:25:21 GMT -5
An important point that just occurred to me. Folks have talked about the possibility of trading Koji, Miller, Lester, etc. at the deadline, and then re-signing one or more of them. Others have correctly pointed out that you almost never see this happening.
But the reason why this is rare is because selling teams are almost always not expecting to contend the next year, or are not financially able to re-sign the traded player. Often both. The Sox are in a very rare position, where they can trade guys at the deadline, have plenty of cash to re-sign them over the winter, and fully expect to contend in 2015. The player gets to playin a pennant race and maybe win a ring, and then, if he is so inclined, he can return to a team where he had a good relationship with (and maybe even some loyalty to) the development people and/or coaching staff.
I think that if you called Koji into Cherington's office on July 30th and said, we completely want you back for next year, but in the meantime, we have the opportunity to get a top prospect and you'll get an opportunity to pitch in a pennant race instead of this clusterfrack ... we'll call your agent the day the exclusive negotiating period ends with a very attractive offer ... I think that would work, for all parties. A true rental.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jun 26, 2014 11:41:56 GMT -5
It's been pretty well established that the quality of your closer has a large, disproportionate impact on your odds of winning the WS once you make the post-season. It's rare that a closer anywhere as good as Koji is available at the trade deadline. I think he'd fetch plenty. I agree with this. I think some people would be surprised at what koji would fetch. In the right market I think a top 50 ish prospect is possible. Define plenty? He wouldn't bring back Pederson 1:1. Would he be worth a Brian Johnson comp? I'm thinking somewhere around there.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jun 26, 2014 11:43:05 GMT -5
An important point that just occurred to me. Folks have talked about the possibility of trading Koji, Miller, Lester, etc. at the deadline, and then re-signing one or more of them. Others have correctly pointed out that you almost never see this happening. But the reason why this is rare is because selling teams are almost always not expecting to contend the next year, or are not financially able to re-sign the traded player. Often both. The Sox are in a very rare position, where they can trade guys at the deadline, have plenty of cash to re-sign them over the winter, and fully expect to contend in 2015. The player gets to playin a pennant race and maybe win a ring, and then, if he is so inclined, he can return to a team where he had a good relationship with (and maybe even some loyalty to) the development people and/or coaching staff. I think that if you called Koji into Cherington's office on July 30th and said, we completely want you back for next year, but in the meantime, we have the opportunity to get a top prospect and you'll get an opportunity to pitch in a pennant race instead of this clusterfrack ... we'll call your agent the day the exclusive negotiating period ends with a very attractive offer ... I think that would work, for all parties. A true rental. AND you won't be tied down by a qualifying offer...
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 26, 2014 11:45:16 GMT -5
An important point that just occurred to me. Folks have talked about the possibility of trading Koji, Miller, Lester, etc. at the deadline, and then re-signing one or more of them. Others have correctly pointed out that you almost never see this happening. But the reason why this is rare is because selling teams are almost always not expecting to contend the next year, or are not financially able to re-sign the traded player. Often both. The Sox are in a very rare position, where they can trade guys at the deadline, have plenty of cash to re-sign them over the winter, and fully expect to contend in 2015. The player gets to playin a pennant race and maybe win a ring, and then, if he is so inclined, he can return to a team where he had a good relationship with (and maybe even some loyalty to) the development people and/or coaching staff. I think that if you called Koji into Cherington's office on July 30th and said, we completely want you back for next year, but in the meantime, we have the opportunity to get a top prospect and you'll get an opportunity to pitch in a pennant race instead of this clusterfrack ... we'll call your agent the day the exclusive negotiating period ends with a very attractive offer ... I think that would work, for all parties. A true rental. AND you won't be tied down by a qualifying offer... Sign me up for this if it will bring a top 50-ish prospect back, even a top 100 prospect.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jun 26, 2014 11:48:48 GMT -5
An important point that just occurred to me. Folks have talked about the possibility of trading Koji, Miller, Lester, etc. at the deadline, and then re-signing one or more of them. Others have correctly pointed out that you almost never see this happening. But the reason why this is rare is because selling teams are almost always not expecting to contend the next year, or are not financially able to re-sign the traded player. Often both. The Sox are in a very rare position, where they can trade guys at the deadline, have plenty of cash to re-sign them over the winter, and fully expect to contend in 2015. The player gets to playin a pennant race and maybe win a ring, and then, if he is so inclined, he can return to a team where he had a good relationship with (and maybe even some loyalty to) the development people and/or coaching staff. I think that if you called Koji into Cherington's office on July 30th and said, we completely want you back for next year, but in the meantime, we have the opportunity to get a top prospect and you'll get an opportunity to pitch in a pennant race instead of this clusterfrack ... we'll call your agent the day the exclusive negotiating period ends with a very attractive offer ... I think that would work, for all parties. A true rental. AND you won't be tied down by a qualifying offer... I was of this thinking too, where as I don't think it is implausable to resign Lester, I had this question before and didn't post it, but I believe that call into the office has to be considered some type of tampering. Is there any rules about this? Let's say we indirectly agree to a free agent deal with Jon Lester, before we trade him away. Verbal agreement.
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Post by oilcansman on Jun 26, 2014 12:07:19 GMT -5
An important point that just occurred to me. Folks have talked about the possibility of trading Koji, Miller, Lester, etc. at the deadline, and then re-signing one or more of them. Others have correctly pointed out that you almost never see this happening. But the reason why this is rare is because selling teams are almost always not expecting to contend the next year, or are not financially able to re-sign the traded player. Often both. The Sox are in a very rare position, where they can trade guys at the deadline, have plenty of cash to re-sign them over the winter, and fully expect to contend in 2015. The player gets to playin a pennant race and maybe win a ring, and then, if he is so inclined, he can return to a team where he had a good relationship with (and maybe even some loyalty to) the development people and/or coaching staff. I think that if you called Koji into Cherington's office on July 30th and said, we completely want you back for next year, but in the meantime, we have the opportunity to get a top prospect and you'll get an opportunity to pitch in a pennant race instead of this clusterfrack ... we'll call your agent the day the exclusive negotiating period ends with a very attractive offer ... I think that would work, for all parties. A true rental. Even if he gets hurt or performs poorly at his next destination? The reason why this stuff doesn't work is because ballplayers are people and their agents aren't stupid. Koji has a wife and son. He has done a terrific job for the Sox. Calling him into the office and saying, "we love you but we can get a good minor leaguer for you, so we're shipping you to Detroit. If you weren't so good, we probably wouldn't be able to trade you. I'm sure you'll figure out what to do with your family", isn't an exhibition of loyalty or friendship. It's cold business. Koji is from Japan. Your post would suggest he's from Jamaica Plain and would die to come back to Boston. I hope Cherington has more respect for Koji than to pull the stunt you are suggesting. The Sox should trade him, but once he's gone, he'll likely stay gone.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 26, 2014 12:22:43 GMT -5
Rick Aguilera resigned with the Twins in a similar situation when they traded him to the Sox in mid-1995. A team in the Red Sox position trading a guy but then making an effort to sign him later isn't really that rare. Uehara might command more in free agency than I'd be thrilled with paying, though.
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Post by jmei on Jun 26, 2014 12:26:14 GMT -5
I think we're underplaying how much it absolutely sucks to get traded midseason right before you're a free agent. It means you live in a hotel away from your family for two months, which pretty much noone enjoys. Contenting for a title is great in theory, but all of those guys won a title just last year, and none are in that Ray Borque-type situation where they just want to get a title before they retire.
It doesn't mean you can't re-sign them the following year, especially since we're talking about a team that has the financial wherewithal to be the highest bidder for them this offseason (which is usually enough to seal the deal). But I do think it severs a significant portion of the hometown goodwill that these guys might attach to the prospect of re-signing with Boston. Maybe not all of it, especially in the case of a guy like Lester who clearly has roots in the area, but at least a good portion of it. In my mind, that means that the Red Sox have to at least come close to matching the highest offer in free agency to re-sign Lester or Uehara or Miller, which means that the cost to trading any of them mid-season is equal to the loss of any potential "hometown discount" that they might give Boston otherwise.
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