DIPS

Not sure where else to ask this, but hopefully someone can answer.

Are there any pitcher stats that adjust BABIP based on batted ball type? I would guess that expected BABIP would change based on percentage of ground balls and line drives and fly balls a pitcher tends to give up since it seems to be a repeatable skill. What I find incredibly interesting is Henry Owens only giving up 12.6% line drives in almost 400 minor league innings and wonder if that's partly why he gives up a very low H/9. These questions came about because I am continually trying to figure out why Henry Owens' results seem to outperform his scouting report.

For one, I think at the very least, pitcher BABIP should be shown as BABIP not including infield flies. This is kind of why someone like Tim Wakefield's FIP was almost always higher compared to his ERA because he got no credit for his career 14.7% IFFB% (which is 15th all time among starting pitchers). And that would probably be significantly more pronounced if he pitched in a place like Oakland, given all the popups that landed in the first few rows at Fenway. Those foul balls are not counted at all for anything. This is also the case for guys like Uehara or Rivera.

In fact if you look at all of the best career BABIPs for pitchers, most have well above average IFFB%s.

This will likely be solved in the next 10 years if they get hitFX in all parks including the minors and can adjust for hardness of contact (where a Papi line drive is not treated as equal to one by Iglesias or one given up by Kershaw is not equal to one given up by Buchholz when he was awful last season). I really hope that data is released to the public in a timely manner. Maybe at that point, xBABIP based on hardness of contact and quality of opponent will be a common stat. They could even include speed and defensive effectiveness and shifts into it.

I wish fangraphs or b-ref would at least publish xBABIP, even though it's a prety inexact stat today.

Thanks for that. One of the few stats I never looked into, maybe it's the one I've been searching for. I can't find evidence that it credits IFFB, only ground balls. IMO, IFFB are closer to strike outs than they are to fly balls.

Another issue I have is with HR/FB%. I think that should be HR/OFFB% instead. And that would change xFIP quite a bit I bet. There is nothing at all wrong with being a flyball pitcher in a big park. It might be better. But the increased IFFB that flyball pitchers tend to get, harm their xFIPs because it brings their HR/FB% to typically lower than average.

It stands to reason that when a groundball sinkerball pitcher gives up a flyball, a lot of times it's because the pitch didn't sink or it's up in the zone (IOW a mistake) so they would have a higher HR/FB% than average. Along with not getting nearly as many popups.

And of note, I really like that minorleaguecentral.com lists (BABIP excluding IFFB) and (HR/OFFB%) as stats.