SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Your "Take" on the 2012 Season
|
Post by sarasoxer on Oct 7, 2012 9:13:51 GMT -5
I hope Ben can be a real GM and make the choices a GM makes without much interference. That was unreal the whole manager process last year. You have to empower this guy. So far Ben has seemingly taken a public back seat to Larry. I hope that does not mean GM in name only. Clearly the club made a long series of decisions that brought it to this point. IMO, to become a top competitor again soon, it will have to do a fast 180, have some luck and maybe hire David Copperfield. I agree with 0407. Could it happen next year? Yes. Is it likely to? People who expect the Sox to be back in the hunt next year haven't offered much concrete for that to happen. Having just miraculously saved ourselves 260 Mil in salary dumps ( and given away a couple of good players) do you advocate blowing the wad on a reload, trying some other guys in replacement? OK which ones, how much help will they provide, how much money should we spend and how long will the contracts have to be to lure talent in a money-competitive marketplace? Do we go back over the tax threshold? From what I see there is not much high-end FA talent this year and what there is (Hamilton) will put us back in the long-term contract mode...something management has said it won't do. IMO we will try to grab 2-3 guys for modest sums (Napoli, Swisher-but unlikely) and short-term contracts. Who could we trade? Got to give to get. At the ML level maybe Middlebrooks, Pedroia, Ells...(I don't think Iglesias is in high demand) but then we have to replace them. Except for Ells, I don't see this happening. Our minors have one legitimate stud in Bogaerts and a goodly supply of B type prospects. Ells & Bogaerts for Andrus?(Jackie is not ready) If we have a win now mentality, a more likely trading partner would be a low-talent team looking to re-stock and willing to wait. It would want 3 or 4 prospects for a top line player (Rubby, Bogaerts, Brentz?). Who do you think we could reasonably get and for what prospects? I believe that a couple of such trades would severely deplete the system. I don't see management taking that course either. 0407 makes another good observation...our team character (high OBP) has dramatically eroded. I think that we will re-stock with guys who fit that mode....a backbone of our championship years. I also agree that BV did not contribute greatly to the Sox demise. Attitude does count but the team is what it is. Without the injuries, we were a .500 ballclub. We gave away our best player...a high-average 100 rbi guy and our left-fielder. We have no current adequate replacement for either.
|
|
|
Post by buffs4444 on Oct 7, 2012 10:36:18 GMT -5
I hope Ben can be a real GM and make the choices a GM makes without much interference. That was unreal the whole manager process last year. You have to empower this guy. People who expect the Sox to be back in the hunt next year haven't offered much concrete for that to happen. There are so many possibilities out there I'm not sure why so many scoff at being able to find the right mix to put this team back in contention. Signing Greinke adds a #1 starter to a mix that already will include a reinvigorated Lester and Buchholz (under Farrell), a motivated innings eater (Lackey), and several young arms like Doubront, Morales, De La Rosa, and Webster. That's three front end starters, a veteran innings eater, and a lot of potential for the back end. That makes the weakest part of the 2012 club into a strength. Filling the middle of the order bat will be a tough chore, that's certain. I'm on the Upton bandwagon but maybe the FO is planning to spend Thanksgiving with someone nobody has on their radar to fill that spot. If you supplement the rotation through free agency, you suddenly have pieces to deal in such a deal, along with other names from the major/minor league teams. This is where proper evaluation comes into play, so that you're dealing Pedro prospects (Pavano, Rose) or Schill prospects (meh) instead of Adrian Gonzalez prospects (Kelly, Rizzo). Continue to fill the other holes using the other avenues available. Evaluate who's the best fit and health risk from players like Victor Martinez, or Justin Morneau and take them as a salary dump to fill first base. Or maybe you go in the opposite direction, if you think you can flip the switch on him, and see what can be done to acquire a Justin Smoak. I'm not a fan of Napoli after digging deeper, but still certainly an option if the deal is right. Plenty of pieces in the bullpen behind Bailey can be included in deals if a GM believes they can get a Melancon back to his Houston form, or a Bard back to his 2011 form, or keep Aceves from being crazy. None are cornerstone pieces, but you find the right person who believes in one of them then the possibility exists to fill another hole somewhere else. Call Boras and find a number between Adam Jones and Matt Kemp that keeps Ellsbury in the core long term. If not, there's another piece to shop in the right deal to someone who believes in his 2011 rather than his 2012. Not sold on Salty long term because of his defensive issues, sign Martin or inquire on Suzuki in a trade....and then you have another chip to deal to fill another hole. There are so many options out there it's completely plausible to believe that this team should contend in 2013 if they work their tail off this winter to identify and acquire the right players. To me, that will be the key thing to watch this offseason: if the front office moves quickly to bring the right mix into the fold. Even if it means spending a little beyond their comfort zone in some cases, if it's the right player you make it happen now that you have flexibility. It hurt to give up the top of our farm, but in the end we acquired a HOF pitchers in Pedro and Schill. It hurt to sign a player to a $20M/yr deal, but without Manny this team is still trying to break through on a championship most likely. Sometimes it's outside your comfort zone, but if it's the right player, you bite the bullet. That's just my take. I respect the opinions of others who've provided plausible arguments. Hopefully the FO is hard at work already finding the right moves to get this team back to the contending status that this passionate fan base deserves.
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Oct 7, 2012 10:59:36 GMT -5
OK buffs, good stuff.
I don't think Melancon, Bard or Aceves is currently worth much in trade tho. Aceves won't be on our club at any rate.
I hope that Farrell, if hired, can make some improvements in the starting staff. The Toronto staff ERA has increased in each of the 2 years under Farrell. Lackey is definitely a wild card as is anyone coming back from TJ. Interestingly Tazawa's velocity went from 91 pre-TJ to 96 but Dice-K's dropped from 95, when healthy, to 92 post TJ. Hopefully Lackey will be next year's Tazawa in that fashion.
Not news but Tazawa was a great story this year. The guy has a good FB and split...What a performance....I think that he would need a better breaking ball to consider for the rotation and who knows if his stamina and velocity would hold up in that role, but he was surely an unsung hero. He is now a solid asset. Morales was another guy who far surpassed expectations...at least mine. Two pluses.
|
|
|
Post by dmaineah on Oct 7, 2012 11:03:33 GMT -5
Right on buffs4444! Right on!!
|
|
|
Post by ray88h66 on Oct 7, 2012 11:26:47 GMT -5
This was the worse season since the 60's teams of my youth. This one bothered me more than those . I'm one of those that think it will be tough to compete in 2013. But Buffs makes some good points and I hope a combination of some good pick ups and the emergence of some of our prospects makes us competitive as early as next year.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 7, 2012 13:05:04 GMT -5
Buffs, I'd be stunned to see the Sox go after Greinke. He has his issues and I seriously doubt we'll see him in a big market city. My guess is he re-signs with the Angels or Texas makes a play for him. I doubt the Sox or Yanks go after him.
What the Sox have are a bunch of middle relievers to deal, and you're saying deal the secondary prospects and you site Pavano and Armas (or was it Rose) vs Kelly and Rizzo, but keep in mind that Pavano was a better prospect than Kelly ever was and Rizzo was made expendable by the thought that AGon would be manning 1B thru 2018 swatting 35 HRs and hitting .300 every year. Didn't happen.
And to make it worse, the Sox dealt Miles Head, their other best 1b prospect (who's now at 3b).
The Sox will do some band-aid solutions, such as probably going after Torii Hunter for a couple of years, or signing Napoli, or dealing for Ike Davis, etc. They'll pick up a starter via free agency, but it won't be a big name, but somebody they can plug into the rotation for a few years.
My best guess is that when the Sox are ready to become a serious contender to have a shot at making noise in the post-season, their rotation will have De La Rosa, Barnes, Webster, Buchholz, and hopefully another young pitcher obtained in a deal. Workman could be in the rotation, and/or perhaps the Sox draft a fast moving pitcher in this upcoming draft.
The offense by then will have Bogaerts, Bradley, Middlebrooks, and Brentz, perhaps with Swihart and Lin (the SS) knocking on the door, and hopefully a couple of acquired patient hitting slugging bats for 1b and DH.
|
|
|
Post by bentossaurus on Oct 7, 2012 13:55:37 GMT -5
While I'm firmly against going into the offseason with the goal to re-tool for another playoff run, Greinke is probably the one major FA I'm not against. Keep in mind it'll take at least 6/120 though, so it would have to be something sensible.
|
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 7, 2012 14:15:13 GMT -5
Fellow bloggers....I can see a path where we compete next year. I like several items mentioned by buff, but if it takes an extra year....so be it. Lets create that "next" 10-year beast.
I get real excited about the young pitching that has been acquired, developed, and drafted. Several will be helpful by 2014. Put me into the camp of not wanting to trade our top prospects. The guys I would like to "dangle" out there are Ellsbury, Salty, Aviles, and several middle relievers. Not sure that adds up to much coming back to us.
Took the "Fenway Tour" yesterday. The Mrs. and I are in Boston trying to become more cultured. Boy Fenway gets your blood pumping.
As to free agency, I would be looking for 2-year contracts or 2-years plus an option. Long term, to me, is not the way to go currently.
|
|
|