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Lester, Gomes & cash traded to OAK for Cespedes + draft pick
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 31, 2014 9:41:24 GMT -5
Maybe Beane was one of the few GMs with the guts to pull the trigger. I'd rather do this than go to the deadline holding out for a joc petersen and end up with nothing. And we still have some more pieces to move. I said this when I raised OAK as a trade possibility a couple of days ago - if Beane is involved, knowing that his farm system has been depleted, you know he's going all in. And Beane, unlike a lot of GMs, can close deals. Very important. My guess is that neither STL nor PIT was willing to go all in, and LAD had been rumored to be shifting away from starters now that they swept SF over the weekend.
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Post by lancect on Jul 31, 2014 9:41:35 GMT -5
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 31, 2014 9:42:26 GMT -5
why isn't this done? ? Because STANTON IS NOT AVAILABLE!!!!! How many times can this be said? He is not being traded any time soon. Only way you get Stanton is if you blow off Miami's door, and that starts with Bogaerts, not Cespedes...
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Post by soxfan06 on Jul 31, 2014 9:43:39 GMT -5
I had the feeling the market was starting to collapse. Too many GMs were saying they didn't want to trade their best prospects for Lester. Also, Beane made a good point recently - we undervalue current production. They Sox don't want to rebuild. Even the return for Peavy was close to major league ready. They want to develop their AAA prospects while Ortiz is still part of the team. They took advantage of a lost season to get a bat they needed without selling off the farm. The market collapsed? Good god, I can't believe I'm actually reading this stuff and people actually believe this stuff. In reality Joc Pederson may have a higher ceiling than Cespedes, but if he ever becomes as good as him most people would call it a win. Josh Bell's ceiling is likely becoming a Cespedes in the majors. It's just crazy I keep seeing this stuff. I get that people are enamored with prospects. I like them too. I mean someone the other day in the TD thread told me I'm more interested in having the #1 farm system than I am winning a World Series. But all prospects are risky. More of them fail to ever come close to reaching their potential than actually reach their ceiling in the MLB. We just acquired a guy who can mash HRs in Fenway. A huge missing piece for this team, a power OF bat.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jul 31, 2014 9:45:04 GMT -5
One online source www.parkfactors.com/OAK lists their park factor as 86 (93R, 78HR), while Fenway is 105. People have mentioned the foul territory: do we have the least and they the most? I'd like to hear from people smarter than I on this (ample supply!) I'm not smarter than you at all but we do see ample data right there right. If Oakland hurts Cespede's numbers by 14 % and Fenway helps them by 5% that is a real decent swing. And Cespedes should pull the ball quite a bit one would think as well. One would think the current 2 time HR derby champ can play wall ball and beyond. Regarding Beene losing Cespedes in a pennant race he is getting back Gomes right? This makes sense for Beane also I would think. Oakland is going to make the playoffs probably. He's tryiong to win.
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Post by lennsakata on Jul 31, 2014 9:46:40 GMT -5
900 at bats is a considerable trend...is it manipulating the stats to look at someone's last 900 consecutive at bats over a clean start to a season, see a .750 OPS and not be impressed with the player? If it makes you feel better....not psyhced about getting one year of player control for an outfielder with a .788 Career OPS (which is trending down after a spectacular rookie season at age 26) It is absolutely manipulating the stats, because 900 ABs or 2 seasons is just completely arbitrary. There is no reason for you to select that as the cut off date for looking at his stats other than the fact that his only other year in the MLB skews the stats to not fit your argument. My argument is and was that he has not been very good for the past two seasons. That is a valid point/concern with a considerable sample. I don't care if he had an OPS of .866 for 10 years before that. The further you go back the less relebvant the data becomese...I was simply establishing that over a good sample size of 900 at bats he has not been all that productive...not publishing a thesis here, just identifying a trend.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jul 31, 2014 9:47:06 GMT -5
So a 3 WAR player is a good return for the best arm on the market? Yeah, because of the odds of any prospect we got in a Lester deal becoming a 3 WAR player wouldn't exactly be huge. It wouldn't have been enough if we were trading Lester + at least 1 more year of control. But we weren't. He has 2 months left on his deal.
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Post by trotnixonforever on Jul 31, 2014 9:47:22 GMT -5
LOLing at all the people with the hypothetical Stanton trades. You might as well work on your hypothetical Trout trades because they are just as likely to happen. Angels will pay up for Trout, Marlins have a history of wheeling and dealing. Marlins haven't sent any signals that Stanton is available. And all of these hypothetical trades people are posting are basically 4 spare parts = stanton. That's insane. Maybe if the Sox offered Betts, Owens, Swihart, Margot, and Cecchini that might get it done. Stanton isn't close to FA agency. Their team is on the upswing. They have zero reason to sell on Stanton below market value.
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on Jul 31, 2014 9:47:38 GMT -5
I (kind of) understand not loving this trade, but I'm not sure I understand the people who dislike it.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 31, 2014 9:48:19 GMT -5
I had the feeling the market was starting to collapse. Too many GMs were saying they didn't want to trade their best prospects for Lester. Also, Beane made a good point recently - we undervalue current production. They Sox don't want to rebuild. Even the return for Peavy was close to major league ready. They want to develop their AAA prospects while Ortiz is still part of the team. They took advantage of a lost season to get a bat they needed without selling off the farm. The market collapsed? Good god, I can't believe I'm actually reading this stuff and people actually believe this stuff. In reality Joc Pederson may have a higher ceiling than Cespedes, but if he ever becomes as good as him most people would call it a win. Josh Bell's ceiling is likely becoming a Cespedes in the majors. It's just crazy I keep seeing this stuff. I get that people are enamored with prospects. I like them too. I mean someone the other day in the TD thread told me I'm more interested in having the #1 farm system than I am winning a World Series. But all prospects are risky. More of them fail to ever come close to reaching their potential than actually reach their ceiling in the MLB. We just acquired a guy who can mash HRs in Fenway. A huge missing piece for this team, a power OF bat. People want to contend every year and they also want high-upside prospects. Well, sorry, you can't have it both ways. If you trade Lester for no present value that goes a long way towards writing off the '15 season. Remember last year when everyone thought Bradley got traded and it was history's greatest tragedy? And then this year when they give Bradley a job and everyone complained about his performance? Again, you can't have it both ways... although apparently you can complain about not having it both ways endlessly.
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Post by jmei on Jul 31, 2014 9:48:50 GMT -5
I just want to watch Bradley and Cespedes have a throw-off. That alone may make this trade worth it.
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Post by nhdave on Jul 31, 2014 9:49:16 GMT -5
the free agency after 2015 seems a little bit of a weak return... wondering if there is some other move on the way (signing, other trade etc),
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 31, 2014 9:49:44 GMT -5
Red Sox clearly like their draft picks. Expect to get 2 our of this one, Comp pick this year and QO after 2015. Also saves them making an offer for an outfielder on the market which might of cost them their 2nd round.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 31, 2014 9:49:45 GMT -5
Or its not because Mike Olt hasn't done anything, CJ Edwards is hurt, and the other guy the Cubs got was never considered a legit prospect. We got a quality big league player at a position of need who's almost certainly going to hit a lot better in Fenway. What did you think we were going to get, Oscar Taveras? No, but I didn't think they were going to get Cody Ross, either. So you only like Cubans we know nothing about?
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Post by kman22 on Jul 31, 2014 9:50:02 GMT -5
I had the feeling the market was starting to collapse. Too many GMs were saying they didn't want to trade their best prospects for Lester. Also, Beane made a good point recently - we undervalue current production. They Sox don't want to rebuild. Even the return for Peavy was close to major league ready. They want to develop their AAA prospects while Ortiz is still part of the team. They took advantage of a lost season to get a bat they needed without selling off the farm. The market collapsed? Good god, I can't believe I'm actually reading this stuff and people actually believe this stuff. In reality Joc Pederson may have a higher ceiling than Cespedes, but if he ever becomes as good as him most people would call it a win. Josh Bell's ceiling is likely becoming a Cespedes in the majors. It's just crazy I keep seeing this stuff. I get that people are enamored with prospects. I like them too. I mean someone the other day in the TD thread told me I'm more interested in having the #1 farm system than I am winning a World Series. But all prospects are risky. More of them fail to ever come close to reaching their potential than actually reach their ceiling in the MLB. We just acquired a guy who can mash HRs in Fenway. A huge missing piece for this team, a power OF bat. The reason I thint prospects are more valuable IN THIS CASE is that without Lester this team isn't competing. If they are unable to bring him back, Cespedes could leave and never be on a contending team in Boston. Prospects give you six years of control, while buying you time to rebuild. They are risky in that they can flame out, but they will be around long-term, so if you trust your scouting/development, they can provide far greater value.
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Post by WindyCityRedSox169 on Jul 31, 2014 9:51:33 GMT -5
So a 3 WAR player is a good return for the best arm on the market? What were you expecting? This isn't 3 years ago when if you traded for someone you could still offer arbitration and get a first round pick and a sandwich round selection. The only piece of news that was truthful yesterday was they seemingly were seeking an MLB ready player back. That dwindles the field considerably (Outside of maybe the Pirates with Marte). It seems not team was going to give up top prospects and I would prefer Cespedes over Piscotty (As that seemed like the realistic prospect target). At the end of the day either the Sox knew the Lester's camp number and knew it is likely beyond their willingness to go and dealt him for a higher return now than just a draft pick (As if that was the result people would still be groaning this offseason). Or they know it and are comfortable with the number/understand his desire to return is real and they wanted to get talent back.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 31, 2014 9:52:37 GMT -5
One online source www.parkfactors.com/OAK lists their park factor as 86 (93R, 78HR), while Fenway is 105. People have mentioned the foul territory: do we have the least and they the most? I'd like to hear from people smarter than I on this (ample supply!) One thing you have to consider more than overall park factors is fly ball %. Especially for a RH pull hitter, Fenway is like Coors for fly ball hitters.
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Gwell55
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Post by Gwell55 on Jul 31, 2014 9:53:15 GMT -5
Rotoworld calls Oakland the most pitcher friendly park in baseball. Lester should be one happy camper with this move and it's not like they will re sign him. Gotta belive Cespede's numbers go up in Fenway. 2014 Cespedes Home: OBP .309/SLG .481/OPS .790 Away: .298 /.448 /.746 Added Fix to it for ya New Home: .385 /. 455 / .839
(And the sample size is going up daily)
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Post by patrmac04 on Jul 31, 2014 9:53:41 GMT -5
Since Cespedes has a nice arm and speed, can he play right field for when the Flying Hawaiian is injured or needs days off? He has time in center, but I don't see time in right field. On that note, I would not mind it if the Red Sox trade Victorino either by the deadline or in the offseason as he looks like he is too injury prone to rely on him moving forward.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jul 31, 2014 9:55:25 GMT -5
It is absolutely manipulating the stats, because 900 ABs or 2 seasons is just completely arbitrary. There is no reason for you to select that as the cut off date for looking at his stats other than the fact that his only other year in the MLB skews the stats to not fit your argument. My argument is and was that he has not been very good for the past two seasons. That is a valid point/concern with a considerable sample. I don't care if he had an OPS of .866 for 10 years before that. The further you go back the less relebvant the data becomese...I was simply establishing that over a good sample size of 900 at bats he has not been all that productive...not publishing a thesis here, just identifying a trend. Ignoring the fact that you continue to want to manipulate the stats for some crazy reason. Your argument is just plain wrong. Cespedes WAR of 4.1 over the past 2 seasons combined is good for 31st out of all outfielders in the major leagues. He may not be elite, but he is a really good player who fills a huge hole on this team. That is also ignoring the fact that Cespedes adds value on defense because of his awesome arm, even if he isn't the greatest fielder.
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Post by jmei on Jul 31, 2014 9:55:36 GMT -5
Check out Cespedes' spray charts. Look at that big clump of popup outs. Those are going to be foul balls in Fenway.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 31, 2014 9:56:34 GMT -5
I'm disappointed that no one was willing to give us a blue chip of prospect-- but we we dealing with smart guys. And I'm THRILLED that we got this much 2015 value plus possible draft picks instead of a second rate of prospect.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jul 31, 2014 9:57:28 GMT -5
Will Woodward has a point. Cespedes also can potentially be worth a QO from the Sox. He may be worth a QO from the Sox.
Regarding the home and away stats being cited, I think Cespedes will hit pretty well in Tampa Bay and Toronto as well. And it is likely his numbers will go up in Fenway. He hasn't had much of a BAPIP and one would think he has the ability to up that in Boston with his pop.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 31, 2014 9:59:05 GMT -5
Check out Cespedes' spray charts. Look at that big clump of popup outs. Those are going to be foul balls in Fenway. Cespedes really does have a "swing built for Fenway". I know that's cliche, but Fenway's park factor on fly balls is something like 1.51 and Cespedes hits over 50% fly balls.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jul 31, 2014 10:02:03 GMT -5
I'm not trying to argue that Cespedes is perfect. Far from it. Low walk rate, that isn't likely to improve causes a low OBP.
And I'm not saying I wouldn't have taken a Joc Pederson + filler deal or Dylan Bundy straight up (Bundy was best possible outcome, only guy I see that I believe was a sure thing to be better than Cespedes).
But I would not have taken a Josh Bell + filler deal over this one. Bell looks to have the ceiling of being a Yoenis Cespedes player with less power. But since Cespedes didn't come up through the minor league system, he doesn't have the fancy outrageous minor league stats for everyone to dream on.
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