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Discussion of 2014 and 2015 pitching rotations
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Post by larrycook on Sept 30, 2014 22:11:36 GMT -5
Realistically just how many teams could be in on sherzer given the dollars involved in the contract he turned down earlier this year?
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 1, 2014 0:39:41 GMT -5
Come home lester!!
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Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Oct 1, 2014 1:02:12 GMT -5
David Price is interesting. I would want negotiation window though. We do have pieces the would help them if they were to sign Scherzer and let Victor go. Power OF/1B/DH bat (Cespedes/Craig/Napoli), Catching Prospects (Swihart/Vasquez), Outfield (everyone but Castillo) and Pitching/Pitching Prospects (all but Eduardo imo), but far too unlikely. I think Cueto will be the guy depending on the price. Hamels maybe if they don't have to include Xander or Betts.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 1, 2014 16:56:33 GMT -5
Realistically just how many teams could be in on sherzer given the dollars involved in the contract he turned down earlier this year? Realistically, any of them since they are all owned by groups that include billionaires. Luckily, Boston is not affected with cheap owner syndrome. Which teams are likely to have the salary resources available to possibly do so - definitely Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers (who are aware the will likely lose Grienke to an opt out after next year), Tigers, Rangers, and Angels; maybe Nats, Mariners, and, oddly, the Astros if they stick to their earlier pledges to get up to the $80M salary level when it's warranted - which looks like a Loria-sized lie at this point.
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Post by ifixbadcredit on Oct 1, 2014 20:38:45 GMT -5
Liriano could be an interesting acquisition, the bb/9 were up as was the hr/fb, but he still carried a 3.59 fip and had a 9.7 k/9. I doubt Pittsburgh gambles on a QO.
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wcp3
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Posts: 3,824
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Post by wcp3 on Oct 1, 2014 20:46:36 GMT -5
David Price is interesting. I would want negotiation window though. We do have pieces the would help them if they were to sign Scherzer and let Victor go. Power OF/1B/DH bat (Cespedes/Craig/Napoli), Catching Prospects (Swihart/Vasquez), Outfield (everyone but Castillo) and Pitching/Pitching Prospects (all but Eduardo imo), but far too unlikely. I think Cueto will be the guy depending on the price. Hamels maybe if they don't have to include Xander or Betts. I know Price is an excellent pitcher, but I'd feel dirty having to root for that loser. Pass.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 1, 2014 21:23:40 GMT -5
I think the question of whether we get Lester back comes down to whether the NYY are interested. If they want him badly enough, I would be surprised to see a 7 year/$175 million offer on the table. That would leave the Red Sox having to bid about $150 million to be in the running. I'm basing that on Lester's comment in the Herald that he'd leave $20 million or so on the table in order to be where he wants to be.
I don't see anyone else offering more than $150 million, which means the RS could get him for something in the range of six years, $22-$23 million/year and I'm hoping they would pull the trigger on that.
The NYY's main problem this year was offense. I'm hoping they won't want to spend $25 million a year on another SP. Pineida looks like he has ace potential and they could be getting CC back to fill a rotation spot. They also are clearly hoping to have Tanaka in the rotation next year. Otherwise, we'd be hearing about his upcoming surgery.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 1, 2014 21:56:22 GMT -5
Cubs. Maybe Dodgers who are likely to lose Greinke after 15 with his opt out. Texas has wanted him forever. Detroit is a possibility, esp with Porcello & Price set to become FAs after next season. And of course, the ubiquitous "mystery team."
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Oct 2, 2014 8:48:21 GMT -5
Shields Samardzija (Only signed through 2015, trade from OAK for Ranaudo and Brentz) Buchholz Kelly Spring Training battle between De La Rosa, Webster and Wright
Barnes and Workman in the bullpen (Rubby too if he doesn't win rotation spot)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 2, 2014 12:42:23 GMT -5
I think the question of whether we get Lester back comes down to whether the NYY are interested. If they want him badly enough, I would be surprised to see a 7 year/$175 million offer on the table. That would leave the Red Sox having to bid about $150 million to be in the running. I'm basing that on Lester's comment in the Herald that he'd leave $20 million or so on the table in order to be where he wants to be. I don't see anyone else offering more than $150 million, which means the RS could get him for something in the range of six years, $22-$23 million/year and I'm hoping they would pull the trigger on that. The NYY's main problem this year was offense. I'm hoping they won't want to spend $25 million a year on another SP. Pineida looks like he has ace potential and they could be getting CC back to fill a rotation spot. They also are clearly hoping to have Tanaka in the rotation next year. Otherwise, we'd be hearing about his upcoming surgery. I think the Cubs will exceed the $150 million figure and I can see the Yankees topping it as well. I think Lester winds up in Wrigley Field when all is said and done. That team needs an excellent pitcher to support that young up and coming lineup of theirs. I think Theo will go all in on Lester. The Red Sox won't. I think if the Sox do get a lefty I would guess it's Francisco Liriano if they feel a deal for Cole Hamels costs too much in prospects (and Betts) which it would.
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Post by mgoetze on Oct 3, 2014 16:58:06 GMT -5
Steamer ERA Projections for 2015
Barnes 3.84* Wright 4.27* Buchholz 4.28 Workman 4.59 de la Rosa 4.72 Kelly 4.75 Webster 5.00 Ranaudo 5.27
* As a reliever
Oh and the projection for John Lackey is 3.63. I really, really hated that trade.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 3, 2014 17:57:56 GMT -5
Let's hope Steamer's way off on those, otherwise that's just steaming, as in pile of.
I hated both trades, but felt like the Lackey return offered more opprtunity (of the two) for upside. But I still think they were both bad trades (unless they buy back Lester, which I don't think will happen).
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 3, 2014 18:42:04 GMT -5
Steamer ERA Projections for 2015 Barnes 3.84* Wright 4.27* Buchholz 4.28 Workman 4.59 de la Rosa 4.72 Kelly 4.75 Webster 5.00 Ranaudo 5.27 * As a reliever Oh and the projection for John Lackey is 3.63. I really, really hated that trade. Well, my gut tells me that the knuckleball plays as well in the majors as minors....so I believe that Wright will be better than projected. Unless I have eye problems his ball moves sharply...more so than I remember from Wake. Also, he has more control. I would be at odds with the Buch and Kelly projections too...They are better than that. Kelly will end up more valuable than Lackey. Workman will not be a starter so his ERA should be lower .... altho I am not a fan. I believe that like many other trades, these will look more favorable as time goes on. If we get Miller & Lester back, well hell we are ahead. Rodriguez looks like a prime candidate in 2016. Beyond the trade, in my mind Johnson may be better than Owens. I am looking to 2016 for the next run...Papi-less though it may be.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,830
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Post by nomar on Oct 3, 2014 19:20:55 GMT -5
Joe Kelly's ERA for his career is far under his FIP and his FIP is nowhere near 4.75. I could see a 4 ERA for him without improvement, but baring disaster a 4.75 ERA looks like a bad projection.
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Post by larrycook on Oct 3, 2014 19:26:07 GMT -5
Outside of darvish, hamels, Lester and shields, are there any other top of the rotation pitchers we should be looking at trading for?
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,830
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Post by nomar on Oct 3, 2014 19:39:42 GMT -5
I wouldn't even think about Darvish. But Cueto and (the less desirable but good) Latos may be on the block.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 3, 2014 19:41:40 GMT -5
Outside of darvish, hamels, Lester and shields, are there any other top of the rotation pitchers we should be looking at trading for? Do you get a commission every time you mention trading for Darvish?
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 3, 2014 19:46:57 GMT -5
Outside of darvish, hamels, Lester and shields, are there any other top of the rotation pitchers we should be looking at trading for? Lester and Shields are both free agents. Cueto has been mentioned in trade rumors as has Hamels. Cueto may be easier to acquire as the Reds are up against salary limitations and he will be a FA next offseason. Cashner from the Padres could be had for the right price.
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Post by redsox4242 on Oct 3, 2014 19:56:34 GMT -5
I would like too acquire either Sale or Cueto. Either team will probably ask for Mookie, and I am not comfortable giving Mookie up. Given Sales age and reasonable salary, and the fact he is a lefty, I would prefer him over Cueto.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,830
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Post by nomar on Oct 3, 2014 20:42:24 GMT -5
No way would I trade Mookie for one year of Cueto. The A's got robbed with the shark trade this year. It's dumb to put all your eggs in one basket like Beane did. He would've been better off if he just went through with the Lester trade IMO, granted he didn't know he'd get Lester at the time. We aren't Oakland, we've won a few WS lately, there's no pressure to trade Mookie for one year of Cueto.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 4, 2014 12:42:11 GMT -5
Outside of darvish, hamels, Lester and shields, are there any other top of the rotation pitchers we should be looking at trading for? You can try to trade for anyone. Hard part is what you realistically have to give up. If you want to add other elite or near elite pitchers to the list (let's assume King Felix is not moving) then you could make offers on, say, Zimmerman, Price, Porcello, Cueto, Kennedy and Samardjiza, (all with 1 year of control left), or Bumgarner (2 years of control) or Quintana (3 years) - but why would any GM move them unless you're giving back Betts or Bogarts (both for anyone with more than 1 year of control) plus likely Owens or Rodriguez and Swihart in the package? Sadly Jim Bowden is no longer in the business or you might be able to get one of those 1 year guys for something that didn't involve the two Bs. But it becomes a pure talk radio trade unless one of them is included.
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Post by larrycook on Oct 4, 2014 13:18:25 GMT -5
Outside of darvish, hamels, Lester and shields, are there any other top of the rotation pitchers we should be looking at trading for? Do you get a commission every time you mention trading for Darvish? I wish. But no matter how you look at it, the rangers have multiple needs and one ace. We have multiple trade pieces that could make Texas better in return for that ace. Between cespedes, swihart, Margot, Craig, devers and a whole stable full of young pitchers, clearly we have some combination of those players that would entice Texas or Philly to move a darvish or hamels. Add in a free agent like shields and/ or Santana as well as a little luck in the everybody returns to health department and we have a playoff team next season. In 2014 our pitchers, sans Buchholz were getting it done. Our hitters were middle of the pack in on base percent and near last in hitting with RISP. Napoli could not buy a hit with RISP. He was the definition of putrid. No way can we be that bad with RISP next season. That is why we clean out some of the prospects to rebuild the pitching staff, fill in some depth areas and get back in the game in 2015.
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Post by tonyc on Oct 4, 2014 13:35:55 GMT -5
I don't buy these Steamer projections on Wright, Delarosa, Webster and especially Kelly. The stuff they have is too good for those latter 3 to project over 4.70, and the numbers of pitchers competing- particularly if we add 1-2 starters will provide competition allowing only sharper winners among the young starters. I'm more in agreement of his poorer projections for Ranaudo and Workman and mediocre for Bucholtz.
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Post by larrycook on Oct 4, 2014 17:47:02 GMT -5
I don't buy these Steamer projections on Wright, Delarosa, Webster and especially Kelly. The stuff they have is too good for those latter 3 to project over 4.70, and the numbers of pitchers competing- particularly if we add 1-2 starters will provide competition allowing only sharper winners among the young starters. I'm more in agreement of his poorer projections for Ranaudo and Workman and mediocre for Bucholtz. For these young pitchers it is all about what adjustments they make to major league hitters and how much the secondary pitchers develop. For ranaudo it is all about learning to pitch down in the zone and on a downward plane. He would work best in a pitchers park. Trade bait. I think workman can be a valuable piece of the bullpen next season. Webster and de la rosa have major league first division team upper rotation stuff, but something seems missing.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 4, 2014 17:55:51 GMT -5
We need to be looking at opportunities to land an Iwakuma, a Leake, Hamels, Cueto, Latos...etc in a trade. I particularly like Hamels and Leake. We wouldn't have to extend Hamels and he's a definite ace. Leake is still only 27 and I bet we could extend him. Iwakuma is a good fit as well and Seattle might well be willing to trade him as they have real decent pitching plus they could use some of our young fly ball pitcher arms.
OR we could just sign 2 free agents and save our powder for other needs.
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