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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jun 8, 2015 7:25:43 GMT -5
Final mock draft by Callis and Mayo. Intriguing. Callis: RHP Carson Fulmer, Vanderbilt The Red Sox have been in hot pursuit of Bregman, Benintendi and Fulmer all spring. They're also the team in the top 10 most likely to pull a stunning move. Rumors including paying Cameron; being the first team willing to pop IMG Academy (Bradenton, Fla.) post-graduate left-hander Brady Aiken, the No. 1 overall pick from 2014 who's recovering from Tommy John surgery; or taking a haircut off their $3,590,400 pick value with a late-charging prep hitter such as Concordia Lutheran (Tomball, Texas) third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes or St. Joan of Arc Catholic (Mississauga, Ont.) first baseman Josh Naylor. Mayo: Benintendi There has been some talk about Benintendi going in a deal to Houston at No. 2, in which case the Red Sox would be interested in Bregman should he get here. There was some buzz about Aiken creeping into the top 10 in a potential deal, with Boston perhaps being one potential landing place for left-hander. m.mlb.com/news/article/129269966/shortstops-remain-atop-latest-mock-draftWow. Callis' part is surprising to read. I don't really see the point of going underslot at 7 unless we think someone is falling to the third round because of money demands. Things could get interesting. Hayes is Charlie Hayes' son. BA comments that he has big raw power, but he likely will have to move off 3B. Naylor appears to also project raw power and he limited defensively to 1B. I also can't see the point in trying to sign either Hayes or Naylor for a below slot deal and hoping that another talent player drops to the 3rd round due to signability issues. Hayes and Naylor are ranked 57 and 61, respectively by BA. That is a huge talent drop to use with the #7 pick, particularly when you are gambling that someone else that you like will be there in the 3rd round. The Aiken rumors also are little concerning after listening to draft podcast and hearing that he may need additional arm surgery. I am hoping they draft Whitley at #7. If you are going to gamble, might as well go for the guy who some have suggested has the highest upside in the draft, including BA projecting above average power and hitting.
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Post by jmei on Jun 8, 2015 7:29:05 GMT -5
My final order of preference: 1. Rodgers 2. Swanson 3. Bregman 4. Tate 5. Fulmer 6. Tucker 7. Benintendi 8. Aiken 9. Cameron 10. Whitley
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,438
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Post by nomar on Jun 8, 2015 7:50:21 GMT -5
Wow. Callis' part is surprising to read. I don't really see the point of going underslot at 7 unless we think someone is falling to the third round because of money demands. Things could get interesting. Hayes is Charlie Hayes' son. BA comments that he has big raw power, but he likely will have to move off 3B. Naylor appears to also project raw power and he limited defensively to 1B. I also can't see the point in trying to sign either Hayes or Naylor for a below slot deal and hoping that another talent player drops to the 3rd round due to signability issues. Hayes and Naylor are ranked 57 and 61, respectively by BA. That is a huge talent drop to use with the #7 pick, particularly when you are gambling that someone else that you like will be there in the 3rd round. The Aiken rumors also are little concerning after listening to draft podcast and hearing that he may need additional arm surgery. I am hoping they draft Whitley at #7. If you are going to gamble, might as well go for the guy who some have suggested has the highest upside in the draft, including BA projecting above average power and hitting. The only Aiken rumor I heard was on Law's 5/21 mock and it seemed like more of an opinion on his part than something he legitimately heard. I doubt we take him.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 8, 2015 8:00:34 GMT -5
I listen to the podcast and have been sold on Fulmer, however I have a small gripe with McDaniels concept of the "black swan" which is dependent on the ideal of the improbable or unpredictable happening. The fact that every player who fits Fulmers description has been relatively good and healthy would make it more of a black swan event if we drafted Fulmer in that same range of 5'10 pitchers with jerky mechanics (a la Lincecum)and he ended up needing TJ and never reaches the majors. Odd enough the book tosses around terms such as "confirmation bais" and the narrative fallacy" Looking at past draft picks in a certain range and seeing that they all performed at a certain level is having a confirmation bias to believe a narrative that all pitchers that fit that description are undervalued. Now with that said, I do think McDaniels made a compelling argument that a pitcher like Fulmer may be undervalued and I do buy into it. However I don't think we should be so naive to believe that there is no risk involved with picking him based on his size and mechanics...because there is.
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Post by stevedillard on Jun 8, 2015 8:00:53 GMT -5
My final order of preference: 1. Rodgers 2. Swanson 3. Bregman 4. Tate 5. Tucker 6. Benintendi 7. Aiken 8. Fulmer 9. Jay 10. Cameron
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 8, 2015 8:03:01 GMT -5
I also can't see the point in trying to sign either Hayes or Naylor for a below slot deal and hoping that another talent player drops to the 3rd round due to signability issues. Hayes and Naylor are ranked 57 and 61, respectively by BA. That is a huge talent drop to use with the #7 pick, particularly when you are gambling that someone else that you like will be there in the 3rd round. The Aiken rumors also are little concerning after listening to draft podcast and hearing that he may need additional arm surgery. The thinking would be as follows (and I have no inside knowledge): There are no superstars in this draft, and the Red Sox draft pool is heavily (57%) weighted to the #7 pick. If the Red Sox believe the draft values run similar from #4 to #60, there could be additional value to the Red Sox to sign a 2nd round talent to a favorable deal (let's say $2mm, which is $1.6mm under slot), which frees approx. $1.9mm (including the 5% overage) to sign 3-4 additional 3rd-5th round talents later in the draft. Frankly, one of the lessons from the Trey Ball pick is that perhaps they misplayed it by not getting enough of a discount off the pick (he was signed for $500k below slot) and not spreading the additional monies (and risk) among more prospects. EDIT: It should be noted that while their BA rankings are low, both Hayes and Naylor are late risers and both are now likely to be picked in the top 35-40 picks (or perhaps at 7?). Callis has both going in the late first round.
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Post by jhenrywaugh, prop. on Jun 8, 2015 8:06:51 GMT -5
My final order of preference: 1. Rodgers 2. Swanson 3. Bregman 4. Tate 5. Fulmer 6. Tucker 7. Benintendi 8. Aiken 9. Cameron 10. Whitley My own list would look remarkably similar, only switching Benintendi and Aiken.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 8, 2015 8:20:38 GMT -5
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2015 8:22:29 GMT -5
My final pick Red Sox take Carson Fulmer. My bold pick Cubs take Brady Aiken.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 8, 2015 8:25:42 GMT -5
I say you go with the best talent available, and I wouldn't let Trey Ball scare me away from trusting the scouting department. One year the Orioles had back to back picks in the top ten; one year they selected Hobgood and the next they took Machado. I'm not saying we are going to draft a Machado, but the talent that you are exposed to in the top ten I think is just too good to pass up. IMO.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 8, 2015 8:28:59 GMT -5
Merry SoxProspects Christmas!
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 8, 2015 8:56:52 GMT -5
Merry SoxProspects Christmas! I tend to think of it more like Mrs. SoxProspects just went into labor, although perhaps your analogy is better. To be clear, "Mrs. SoxProspects" being some fictional, purely theoretical idea, not like, my wife or Mike's wife or something. That would just be weird. I'm very excited to see how the hell this all goes down. Much more of a crapshoot than 2013, it seems.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 8, 2015 9:22:07 GMT -5
Final Preference List:
1: Tate 2: Fulmer 3. Rodgers 4. Benintendi 5. Jay 6. Swanson 7. Bregman 8. Tucker 9. Allard 10. Aiken
Very low on: Cameron
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 8, 2015 9:28:50 GMT -5
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 8, 2015 9:32:10 GMT -5
My draft board:
1. Swanson 2. Rodgers 3. Tate 4. Bregman 5. Fulmer 6. Whitley 7. Tucker 8. Clark 9. Jay 10. Benintendi
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