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Red Sox 2013 Draft Discussion
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Post by bluechip on Jun 4, 2013 23:38:43 GMT -5
Here is my quick attempt at a mock:
1-HOU- Gray (the cheaper sign for Houston, I think Moran is more likely than not a smoke screen) 2-Cubs- Appel (or Gray if the Astros take Appel, would only be mildly surprised by Bryant) 3-COL- Bryant (easiest pick in the draft) 4-MIN- Stewart (wish they would take McGuire, but this is more realistic) 5-CLE- Moran (safe pick here) 6-MIA- Shipley (this looks pretty inevitable) 7-BOS- Meadows (Red Sox take the guy who impressed at the workout) 8-KC- Ball (This rumor is pretty persistent) 9-PIT- DJ Peterson (they supposedly want a college bat and Peterson is a nice combination of hit and power) 10-TOR- Dominic Smith (though I am sure I will have screwed something up earlier, this gets real tricky) 11-NYN- Clint Frazier (I do not think he falls this far, but crazier things...) 12-SEA- McGuire (I really want him to go to the Twins) 13-SD- Bickford (helium) 14-PIT- Stanek (we know they are willing to take a chance on a college pitcher who falls in the draft) 15-ARI- Renfroe (a bargain) 16-PHI- Tim Anderson (their middle infield is not getting any younger) 17-White Sox- Nick Ciuffo (compares to former ChiSox A. J. Pierzynski) 18-LAD- Alex Gonzalez (if he gets drafted by Boston, I will be quite put out) 19-STL- Marco Gonzales (they are a great organization and really do not need help anywhere, but take the close to ready lefty with the plus-plus change up. He might be available later) 20-DET- Jagielo (who cares about third base defense, certainly not the Tigers) 21-TB- Ian Clarkin (head says the Rays pick a position player, my heart says they take a pitcher) 22-BAL-Judge 23-TEX- Kaminsky 24-A's-Phillip Ervin 25-SF-Kyle Serrano (I really like him, and at this spot he can forgo playing for Dad) 26-NYY- Harvey (though I really feel like one of their three first rounders will be either Wilson or Manaea) 27-CIN-Chris Anderson
I think we all have a pretty good feel on the first 8 picks or so, though I doubt I nailed it right. After 12, I might have done as well using a darts. Anyway, that was fun.
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Post by taftreign on Jun 4, 2013 23:50:34 GMT -5
1st Round: Kohl Stewart, Austin Meadows, Bradon Shipley, Clint Frazier
2nd Round: Jordan Paroubeck (HS OF, big on this pick as well), Travis Demerritte (HS 3B), Kevin Ziomek
3rd Round: Tyler Skulina (RHP Kent State), Trey Michalezewski (HS 3B), Alec Hansen (HS RHP Signability??)
4th Round: Daniel Palka (OF Georgia Tech), Victor Caratini (HS 3B/C)
Others that catch my attention: Ivan Wilson (HS OF), Akeem Bostick (HS RHP), Alec Grosser (HS RHP), Jake Bauers (HS 1B), Carter Hope (HS RHP), Ryan Olsen (HS RHP), Daniel Lietz (HS LHP) and college seniors Mason Katz (LSU), Conner Harrell (Vanderbilt), Mike Yastrzemski (Vanderbilt)
I believe the current system can handle taking risk on younger players. There are a few college guys that are mixed in who I'd consider but why not go for it this season. I felt the team last year was trying to go for the safer picks but with lower upside. I really didn't like the direction they went. I don't see any potential star players mixed in. The team would have been better off finding a way to sign Alex Bregman and Carson Fulmer last year. I hope they don't make the same mistake again.
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Post by raftsox on Jun 5, 2013 4:01:50 GMT -5
I don't get the whole Moran to Houston thing. Why not take the clearly better hitter in Bryant if you're going to try to cut a deal. He's never been projected to go above three. The slot values are 5.626 and 7.79, so offer him 6 and take the extra 1.8. The only scenario it makes sense to take Moran 1-1 is if they know Manae will be there for their second pick and they know it'll take 5M to sign him.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 5, 2013 6:30:02 GMT -5
Paroubeck in the 2nd round is too high.....don't let the physique and the Barry Bonds personal lessons impress you too much. He struck out in high school ball a little more than I like to see (24 in 137 PA)
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Post by raftsox on Jun 5, 2013 7:22:17 GMT -5
I feel like a virgin on prom night right now.
I'm really hoping the Sox get Stewart; the 2014 Greenville rotation would be fantastic. Stewart, Callahan, Buttrey, Mercedes, likely second round college pitcher.
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Post by redsox1534 on Jun 5, 2013 7:55:32 GMT -5
Moran:Vitek::Frazier:Place There seems to be one every year.. Corey Spangenberg, Tony Sanchez, delino deshields, Matt Hobgood... I would say they overwhelming never meet expectations. Tony Sanchez had a great start to his career and was killed by injuries not his ability to play now healthy he is AAA having a great year. Spangenberg is also having a good year in his second full season of baseball and he most likely going to be called up to AAA some time soon or this season were he will really need to prove him self because High A at 22 top 10 pick etc he should be killen it there so he needs to prove more yes. Now Delino Deshields is in high A an is only 20 I believe. He was raw coming out but he succeed early more then most thought he would. He is having a good year also and has great tools especially playing 2b. Hes probally one of the fastest guys in the minors ( he was gonna be a change of pace RB at LSU). Hobgood was a huge overdraft and was awful. Yes the guys you mentioned were all players with high helium but you cant say the first three havent worked out because they are all still early in there careers an all are doing well right now. They might of been reaches but they are all potentially good players still.
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Post by redsox1534 on Jun 5, 2013 8:23:32 GMT -5
Guys im interested in
1st- Kohl Stewart, Clint Frazier, Dominic Smith, Braden Shiply, Reese Mcquire,
2nd and 3rd- Ryan Eades, Jonathan Crawford, Bobby Wahl, Robert Kominsky Eric Jagielo, Ryan Boldt, Alex Gonzalez, Kyle Serrano, Chris Okey, Zach Collins, Rowdey Tellez, Hunter Dozier, Carlos Salazar and Jordan Paroubeck, Ryan McMahon, Brian Ragira Cavan Biggio.
4th rd later a phew guys I like, Jared King, Dustin Peterson, AJ Puk, Justin Williams, Garret Williams, Teddy Stankiewekz, Dylan Covey, Michael Wagner.
Parounbeck is very intriguing. Wouldnt take him in the second unless he was signing for very cheap. 3rd rd later ok. I could see us take some one 2nd or 3rd like Crawford or Gonzalez and letting them work as SP right away but eventually put them in the pen hope they can close. Or just taking some one that can close or turn them right away into a closer in the 2nd or 3rd.
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Post by mjammz on Jun 5, 2013 9:03:50 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel @kileymcd Still have Frazier over Meadows, outside shot Kohl Stewart makes it RT @nepd_Loyko any late buzz on the Red Sox and the #7 pick?
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jun 5, 2013 9:08:13 GMT -5
I feel like a virgin on prom night right now. I'm really hoping the Sox get Stewart; the 2014 Greenville rotation would be fantastic. Stewart, Callahan, Buttrey, Mercedes, likely second round college pitcher. Well, if you're really leaning on the draft depending on the Sox getting Stewart, I'd say the odds are pretty good that what is going to happen to you is what often happens to that virgin on prom night.
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Post by azblue on Jun 5, 2013 9:59:32 GMT -5
Gammons: The player who seems to have risen the most in the closing weeks is Gardena, Cal. First baseman Dominic Smith. One scouting director says “he had the best interview I’ve conducted in three years,” and Smith wowed one National League general manager, who compared his makeup to that of Darin Erstadt. Smith is considered a James Loney defender with huge power potential, and that power was put on a very impressive display this past weekend in Dodger Stadium. “I would not be surprised to see the Pirates or even the Red Sox take him in the top ten,” says one GM. www.baseballanalytics.org/baseball-analytics-blog/2013/6/5/peter-gammons-2013-mlb-draft-notes.html
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jun 5, 2013 10:01:08 GMT -5
I feel like a virgin on prom night right now. I'm really hoping the Sox get Stewart; the 2014 Greenville rotation would be fantastic. Stewart, Callahan, Buttrey, Mercedes, likely second round college pitcher. Well, if you're really leaning on the draft depending on the Sox getting Stewart, I'd say the odds are pretty good that what is going to happen to you is what often happens to that virgin on prom night. You too?? LOL
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Post by awall on Jun 5, 2013 10:03:43 GMT -5
Since this is generally considered a fairly weak draft, I find myself wishing the Sox had a pick in the mid to late teens so they could go after Kaminsky. Like his mechanics and delivery a lot. But his size and lack of facing top HS competition makes it impossible to reach for him with a top 10 pick.
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Post by superman on Jun 5, 2013 10:04:00 GMT -5
Interesting write up on some notes from Gammo about Dom Smith. Here's the link: www.baseballanalytics.org/baseball-analytics-blog/2013/6/5/peter-gammons-2013-mlb-draft-notes.html“I would not be surprised to see the Pirates or even the Red Sox take him in the top ten,” says one GM. Short article that praises Smith as a James Loney defender with huge power potential and a make-up of a Darin Erstad. He's also one of the five youngest high schoolers in the draft. I believe he will be 17 for a while. Quite younger than Frazier...
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Post by burythehammer on Jun 5, 2013 10:11:30 GMT -5
Peter Gammons works for the Red Sox.
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Post by mjammz on Jun 5, 2013 10:35:57 GMT -5
From Kiley McDaniel
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 5, 2013 10:40:27 GMT -5
Interesting write up on some notes from Gammo about Dom Smith. Here's the link: www.baseballanalytics.org/baseball-analytics-blog/2013/6/5/peter-gammons-2013-mlb-draft-notes.html“I would not be surprised to see the Pirates or even the Red Sox take him in the top ten,” says one GM. Short article that praises Smith as a James Loney defender with huge power potential and a make-up of a Darin Erstad. He's also one of the five youngest high schoolers in the draft. I believe he will be 17 for a while. Quite younger than Frazier... Smith will be 17 for ten more days Dominic Smith DOB: 6/15/1995 Austin Meadows DOB: 5/3/1995 Kohl Stewart DOB: 10/7/1994 Clint Frazier DOB: 9/6/1994 Trey Ball DOB: 6/27/1994 Colin Moran DOB: 10/1/1992 Braden Shipley DOB: 2/2/1992
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Post by superman on Jun 5, 2013 10:50:01 GMT -5
Interesting write up on some notes from Gammo about Dom Smith. Here's the link: www.baseballanalytics.org/baseball-analytics-blog/2013/6/5/peter-gammons-2013-mlb-draft-notes.html“I would not be surprised to see the Pirates or even the Red Sox take him in the top ten,” says one GM. Short article that praises Smith as a James Loney defender with huge power potential and a make-up of a Darin Erstad. He's also one of the five youngest high schoolers in the draft. I believe he will be 17 for a while. Quite younger than Frazier... Smith will be 17 for ten more days Dominic Smith DOB: 6/15/1995 Austin Meadows DOB: 5/3/1995 Kohl Stewart DOB: 10/7/1994 Clint Frazier DOB: 9/6/1994 Trey Ball DOB: 6/27/1994 Colin Moran DOB: 10/1/1992 Braden Shipley DOB: 2/2/1992 Thanks Jim. So he's 9 months younger than Frazier. Personally if Stewart is gone, I might go with Smith. We don't have any real impact bats in the system there and you could probably get him under slot at the 7 spot. Just a thought.
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Post by njsox on Jun 5, 2013 11:03:48 GMT -5
Just watched some Clint Frazier hitting videos and I cam away impressed. He has a vicious right-handed swing reminiscent of Gary Sheffield. He should be able to turn around just about any fastball from day one. I know there is a lot of talk about him not being able to hit a curve etc., but that is ridiculous to say about a guy coming out of high school, no? How much could Mike Trout have really shown coming out of NJ where the competition is nowhere near as advanced as Georgia? It's all about projection and I would definitely take Frazier and his vicious bat speed in the hopes that he can be taught to recognize pitches, use the whole field, etc. Out of the players possibly available to the Sox at 7 I think I am finally firmly locked in on Stewart first, then Frazier. If both are gone I will be disappointed initially and will just have to hope that Sox scouting can come up with the Savoy Special!
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Post by ramireja on Jun 5, 2013 11:18:40 GMT -5
One thing I will say is this. No matter who we take first, I would not offer overslot money. I think the biggest mistake the red sox made conceptually last year (regardless of the actual players themselves) is that they went overslot for Marrero, and paid slot for Brian Johnson. I would have offered slot money to Marrero and I thought Johnson could have been had in the 1.0-1.2 mill range. Instead, that was money they had to take out elsewhere in the later rounds and that handcuffed them to a degree. It would have been great to have an extra 500,000 - 700,000 at our disposal when we were negotiating with Bregman, Fulmer, etc.
I think one thing teams will learn is that paying overslot in the first round is really detrimental to that team's entire draft. Let's say for example, that a player is demanding only a modest 10% overslot at our #7 position. So quick math, 3.2 x .1 = 320,000. Okay that might seem fair and not a drastic overpay, but all of a sudden, that 320,000 (or 10% increase) is 25% of of the slot value for our 2nd round pick, is almost 50% of our 3nd round pick and so on....you get the picture. Bottom line, don't overpay early. I'm not suggesting we go under slot at 7 this year, but I think the Sox need to be a little bit more stingy early in the draft under the new rules and set their limit at the slot value. Look at the Cubs last year paying Almora 900,00 overslot. Great player for sure, but that kills the rest of your draft and I have no idea why Almora wouldn't have accepted slot money.
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Post by bluechip on Jun 5, 2013 11:19:15 GMT -5
Just watched some Clint Frazier hitting videos and I cam away impressed. He has a vicious right-handed swing reminiscent of Gary Sheffield. He should be able to turn around just about any fastball from day one. I know there is a lot of talk about him not being able to hit a curve etc., but that is ridiculous to say about a guy coming out of high school, no? How much could Mike Trout have really shown coming out of NJ where the competition is nowhere near as advanced as Georgia? It's all about projection and I would definitely take Frazier and his vicious bat speed in the hopes that he can be taught to recognize pitches, use the whole field, etc. Out of the players possibly available to the Sox at 7 I think I am finally firmly locked in on Stewart first, then Frazier. If both are gone I will be disappointed initially and will just have to hope that Sox scouting can come up with the Savoy Special! Again, the concern deals with his ability to hit the crappy high school he currently faces, nevermind the more advanced breaking stuff he will see as he progress through the minors.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 5, 2013 11:51:02 GMT -5
I've been intrigued with Dominic Smith since I first read about him a couple of months ago. I'm not a close follower of draft prospects, but this kid seems to have future star written all over him. The interesting question is whether he would be higher ranked if he were an outfielder. 1Bs seem to get little respect these days.
The Sox are very thin (figuratively, not literally) at 1B throughout the system. I think that is fairly common now because many major league 1Bs are converts from other positions. However, when there is one available with really special talent, why not pick him, if the very top choices are gone?
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Post by awall on Jun 5, 2013 12:01:47 GMT -5
burning incense that Shipley drops to 7...
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 5, 2013 12:48:50 GMT -5
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jun 5, 2013 13:02:39 GMT -5
You know if there is any club in baseball that knows SIZE does not always equal production it is the Red Sox. Think Pedroia and Ryan Sweeney. Sweeney looks the part, but hits singles (when he hits). Yes Meadows looks more like a star baseball player than Cliff Frazier, but I just have the feeling that no one will ever outwork or out hustle Frazier.....and or hit more long balls. I have nothing against Austin Meadows, and if the TOP 3, Kohl Stewart, and Frazier are gone before we pick, I'm fine with Meadows being the pick. BUT, I just think Frazier will WILL himself to being special.
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Post by awall on Jun 5, 2013 13:08:33 GMT -5
if i had to pick between Meadows and Frazier, it'd be Frazier in a heartbeat.
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