nomar
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Posts: 10,831
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Post by nomar on Oct 31, 2012 7:33:10 GMT -5
I dont see Hamilton signing a 3 year deal. It makes almost no sense to go less than 5 years at his current age.
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Post by larrycook on Oct 31, 2012 12:50:26 GMT -5
IOn a down year he still posted a stronger wOBA (fangraphs) then Adrian Gonzalez, and he kills the ball at Fenway. Maybe the reason he kills the ball at Fenway is because he was feasting on the weak cutters that Becket and especailly Lester were lobbing to batters all year. |
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Post by elguapo on Oct 31, 2012 14:54:50 GMT -5
I dont see Hamilton signing a 3 year deal. It makes almost no sense to go less than 5 years at his current age. It makes almost no sense to give him 5 years at his current age. |
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Post by patrmac04 on Nov 4, 2012 16:52:10 GMT -5
I really like the idea of signing Haren or A. Sanchez to round out the rotation. I don't like swisher because he would cost a draft pick... but Ichiro wouldn't. I don't see the sox signing a player if they have to sacrifice a pick if we are rebuilding.
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Post by jdb on Nov 5, 2012 12:41:09 GMT -5
How high would you all go for Swisher? The guys over at fangraphs had him at 4 yrs and around 50 million. I think I would be all over that even losing our 2nd pick. He is a great fit. Good pop, oba, can play 3 positions and if we looked for a corner OF on the trade market we would be giving up something comparable to our 2nd round pick anyway. His versatility is key bc it gives us flexibility going forward down the road.
Im starting to lean towards him and Napoli on a shorter deal. Either a pillow contract to boost his value or maybe 2 yrs with an option. As far as pillow contracts go im still up in the air on Melky. Even him at his KC level would be fine on a short deal but isnt he a clubhouse cancer? I kind of want to see if Sands or Kalish can earn a spot too though.
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 5, 2012 12:56:26 GMT -5
Somewhat off-topic, but where did the term "pillow" contract come from, anyway? I understand what it means but it puzzles me why is was given the moniker "pillow".
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 5, 2012 13:30:01 GMT -5
Somewhat off-topic, but where did the term "pillow" contract come from, anyway? I understand what it means but it puzzles me why is was given the moniker "pillow". I always thought it was something relating to being a soft landing or something? |
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 5, 2012 14:12:12 GMT -5
Did a little more reading on it...thank you wiki. Apparently Scott Boras had something to do with it. Right, a soft landing between contracts, like Beltre's; something that's not permanent but puts a contract to "sleep" for a while.
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Post by jmei on Nov 5, 2012 15:51:51 GMT -5
How high would you all go for Swisher? The guys over at fangraphs had him at 4 yrs and around 50 million. I think I would be all over that even losing our 2nd pick. He is a great fit. Good pop, oba, can play 3 positions and if we looked for a corner OF on the trade market we would be giving up something comparable to our 2nd round pick anyway. His versatility is key bc it gives us flexibility going forward down the road. Im starting to lean towards him and Napoli on a shorter deal. Either a pillow contract to boost his value or maybe 2 yrs with an option. As far as pillow contracts go im still up in the air on Melky. Even him at his KC level would be fine on a short deal but isnt he a clubhouse cancer? I kind of want to see if Sands or Kalish can earn a spot too though. If the Red Sox want to contend in 2013, I'd sign Swisher to play RF, Napoli to play 1B, and try to get one of Haren, Jackson, or Sanchez (in that order). Nava starts in LF and platoons with Sands. Bench is Sands, Sweeney, Lavarnway, and De Jesus. |
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Post by dmaineah on Nov 5, 2012 16:12:10 GMT -5
If the Red Sox want to contend in 2013, I'd sign Swisher to play RF, Napoli to play 1B, and try to get one of Haren, Jackson, or Sanchez (in that order). Nava starts in LF and platoons with Sands. Bench is Sands, Sweeney, Lavarnway, and De Jesus. There is no way the team contends with Haren or Jackson as SP + Iglesias ( I assume he is your starting SS), Napoli, Nava/Sands as everyday starters. The line up is just to weak (very weak) and Haren or Jackson don't upgrade the SP over what is already in the system. |
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Post by jmei on Nov 5, 2012 16:28:38 GMT -5
Here are the average wOBAs by position in 2012, followed by the wOBAs of my proposed lineup over the last three years:
C 0.308 (Saltalamacchia: .318)
1B 0.338 (Napoli: .377)
2B 0.297 (Pedroia: .363)
3B 0.319 (Middlebrooks: .357)
SS 0.296 (Iglesias: .194)
LF 0.330 (Nava: .328)
CF 0.331 (Ellsbury: .358)
RF 0.329 (Swisher: .367)
DH 0.336 (Ortiz: .402)
Every one of my everyday hitters except Iglesias and Nava is significantly better than their positional average relative to their defensive position, and Nava is basically even with an average LF. I would be shocked if, absent serious and systemic injury, that lineup didn't crack the top three in runs in the AL.
The rotation is a much more serious concern. You'd be betting that Buchholz and Lester bounce back, that Lackey gives you something, that Haren/Jackson/etc. is a dependable mid-rotation starter, that Doubront/Morales continue to take a step forward, and that Webster/De La Rosa prove capable emergency fill-ins/mid-season replacements. There just aren't any great FA options (I think the Angels will pay Greinke at any cost and noone else is a clear number one or number two type) or immediately available internal solutions.
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 5, 2012 16:40:49 GMT -5
Good post, jmei. Its always good to back up an opinion with facts and statistical analysis.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 5, 2012 18:26:18 GMT -5
There is no way the team contends with Haren or Jackson as SP + Iglesias ( I assume he is your starting SS), Napoli, Nava/Sands as everyday starters. The line up is just to weak (very weak) and Haren or Jackson don't upgrade the SP over what is already in the system.[/b] Who are these five pitchers who are as good or better than Haren and Jackson? |
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 5, 2012 23:07:55 GMT -5
Edwin Jackson had a better 2012 than any Red Sox starter.
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Post by jdb on Nov 5, 2012 23:33:06 GMT -5
Edwin Jackson had a better 2012 than any Red Sox starter. And wouldn't cost a pick either. |
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Post by jmei on Nov 6, 2012 10:18:09 GMT -5
Alex Speier does a similar analysis to mine ( link) and concludes the Red Sox aren't too far away from a strong lineup: Still, it’s fairly remarkable to note that, by and large, the Sox lineup that was near the top of the major league leaderboard in runs scored featured just two positions (DH and catcher) with considerably better-than-league-average performance. The team was average to modestly above average at most positions (first base, second base, third base, shortstop, left field, right field) and terrible at one (center field).
All of that suggests that, with health (again, not a certainty -- after all, Ortiz, Ellsbury, Pedroia and Middlebrooks all missed considerable stretches last year), the Sox need to manufacture little more than near-average production at their unresolved positions to create an offense that is postseason-caliber. A return to form by Pedroia and Ellsbury would permit the team to withstand something of a performance decline by Ortiz, and to pick up some of the slack should the team go light at another position such as shortstop. |
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,831
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Post by nomar on Nov 6, 2012 14:41:38 GMT -5
Sanchez > Jackson IMO
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Post by jdb on Nov 6, 2012 16:16:07 GMT -5
Im not so sure. You have to factor in cost, years and injury history. I could get behind either though. |
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Post by dmaineah on Nov 7, 2012 16:17:39 GMT -5
Who are these five pitchers who are as good or better than Haren and Jackson? In my opinion going forward - Everybody |
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Post by dmaineah on Nov 7, 2012 16:30:32 GMT -5
Here are the average wOBAs by position in 2012, Throw out all the previous stats that you want. I'm more concerned with what they do going forward. And I don't believe for a minute that Napoli or Nava will produce anything close to those numbers going forward & Iglesias, even with his great defense, won't hit enough to warrant a spot on the 25 man roster. And that makes up 1/3 of your line up. That's just to weak for my liking. And I think it produces a last place team in the American League East. |
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Post by jmei on Nov 7, 2012 18:07:03 GMT -5
The worst year Napoli has had over his entire career (2010, .341 wOBA, .783 OPS) is still better than league average for a first baseman. Even if you think Daniel Nava is terrible and Jose Iglesias is worse, the fact remains that a lineup anchored by the likes of Ortiz, Pedroia, Middlebrooks, Ellsbury, and Swisher can carry a few league-average bats (Saltalamacchia, hypothetically-bad Napoli, Nava) and one below-average one (Iglesias). This isn't 2003 anymore-- in the post-steroid era, that lineup core is very good-to-excellent, and the only player you can reasonably expect to decline from recent performance due to age is Ortiz (and maybe a sophmore slump from WMB), as the others are in their prime.
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Post by jrffam05 on Nov 8, 2012 12:50:18 GMT -5
In my opinion, Napoli is the best bet for 1B, especially if you can get him for less then 3 years. He also provides depth at the C position. You can also probably sign him twice with the money that you would of paid to A. Gon
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,831
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Post by nomar on Nov 9, 2012 8:18:03 GMT -5
Sanchez wants 6yr/$90M. That's ridiculous
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 24, 2012 8:08:06 GMT -5
John Tomase makes a strong case for signing Mike Napoli in today's (Saturday) Boston Herald, citing his OBP in comparison to all-star first basemen.
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Post by larrycook on Nov 28, 2012 13:52:09 GMT -5
In my opinion, Napoli is the best bet for 1B, especially if you can get him for less then 3 years. He also provides depth at the C position. You can also probably sign him twice with the money that you would of paid to A. Gon How much risk is there for the Sox to go 4 years with Napoli, especially since the last two years, he could probably move to FT DH and/or backup catcher. |
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