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Post by jmei on Dec 30, 2014 18:33:06 GMT -5
I'm skeptical of any cash flow explanation. I don't think I've ever heard of a restructure necessitated by non-cap-related cash flow reasons for any NFL franchise, and I very much doubt that the Patriots (one of the league's more financially successful teams) and Bob Kraft (one of the league's wealthier oweners) would have to resort to such shenanigans, even for a pretty hefty $24m escrow.
I buy the Barnwell/Grantland explanation posted above. The Patriots wanted flexibility to cut him if non-injury physical decline sets in faster than expected, and Brady would prefer to be cut rather than the possibility of being traded somewhere without his consent. Yes, there's the possibility that by giving up the guarantee, Brady leaves some money on the table, but the ability to choose his next destination is worth potentially giving up a few million, and the Brady family is not exactly hurting for cash. To appease the union, they upped his salary by $3m to make up for the fact that he's giving up a guarantee.
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TX
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Post by TX on Dec 30, 2014 19:44:55 GMT -5
it's hard to read anything into this restructuring but, if we must....
What Barnwell did not consider is the possibility of Belichick retiring within 3 years, as in, he's made Kraft (and TB) aware that he would retire with 1 more ring, maybe before. Would TFB move on or retire in that case?
Mangini, McDaniels.. interesting drama there. It takes a bit of naivete to conclude BB hasn't been seeking out his replacement for years now.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 30, 2014 20:10:54 GMT -5
I don't know I think you guys are blowing off the cash flow thing a little too much. The Pats operate differently than a lot of other teams which is why their cap situation is usually a lot better. They use a cash basis so even when their cap number is lower their cash number usually isn't. I do think this year was a little different though in that the cash number was low.
Millionairs/billionaires aren't just liquid as can be all the time which means that just because they could come up with the money it doesn't mean they would under the circumstances.
The Red Sox could spend like the Dodgers and Yankees too but they don't for good reason. The restructure most certainly does help them pay bonus money more easily.
They didn't do this so they could cut Tom Brady.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 30, 2014 20:12:31 GMT -5
I'm skeptical of any cash flow explanation. I don't think I've ever heard of a restructure necessitated by non-cap-related cash flow reasons for any NFL franchise, and I very much doubt that the Patriots (one of the league's more financially successful teams) and Bob Kraft (one of the league's wealthier oweners) would have to resort to such shenanigans, even for a pretty hefty $24m escrow. I buy the Barnwell/Grantland explanation posted above. The Patriots wanted flexibility to cut him if non-injury physical decline sets in faster than expected, and Brady would prefer to be cut rather than the possibility of being traded somewhere without his consent. Yes, there's the possibility that by giving up the guarantee, Brady leaves some money on the table, but the ability to choose his next destination is worth potentially giving up a few million, and the Brady family is not exactly hurting for cash. To appease the union, they upped his salary by $3m to make up for the fact that he's giving up a guarantee. Nice theory on the cut reason but Brady and thy contract are tradable no matter what he reasonable decline is. It's very short money and teams are desperate. A Houston type would die to have 60% of this Brady at that contract.
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Post by jmei on Dec 30, 2014 21:00:46 GMT -5
I don't know I think you guys are blowing off the cash flow thing a little too much. The Pats operate differently than a lot of other teams which is why their cap situation is usually a lot better. They use a cash basis so even when their cap number is lower their cash number usually isn't. I do think this year was a little different though in that the cash number was low. Millionairs/billionaires aren't just liquid as can be all the time which means that just because they could come up with the money it doesn't mean they would under the circumstances. The Red Sox could spend like the Dodgers and Yankees too but they don't for good reason. The restructure most certainly does help them pay bonus money more easily. They didn't do this so they could cut Tom Brady. These teams all have revolving credit facilities with major banks at favorable terms. Liquidity is not an issue for organizations with half-billion annual revenues. They aren't doing this to save on interest payments, either, since they had to bump up his salary to compensate.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 31, 2014 7:08:48 GMT -5
You have any sources for this? Makes infinitely more sense it's a cash flow free up than your line of thinking. You don't pay the face of your franchise more money so it's easier to maybe cut him in 2 years.
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Post by jmei on Dec 31, 2014 10:46:42 GMT -5
Every NFL franchise has access to a nine-figure revolving credit facility established by the league office, and most have similar arrangements with other lenders. Financial institutions are tripping over themselves to lend to NFL teams due to the NFL's steady revenue streams and virtually nonexistent risk of default. I very much doubt that liquidity is an issue.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 31, 2014 11:00:54 GMT -5
You do know teams use those lines and they are not limitless right?
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Post by jmei on Dec 31, 2014 11:14:09 GMT -5
The Patriots have not built/renovated their stadium or paid out significant up-front signing bonuses or made any other transactions that you would expect to exhaust a $200m league-established credit facility, plus whatever other private lending they engage in. Nor is there any reason to think that the franchise's revenues or Bob Kraft's other assets are in any financial distress. For an organization with as low of a credit risk as the Patriots, $24m for an escrow account is nothing, and any commercial bank in the world would agree to it in a heartbeat.
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TX
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Post by TX on Dec 31, 2014 14:40:52 GMT -5
So.. Robert Kraft needing $24m in cash is debatable but Belichick wanting to retire is not? well..
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 31, 2014 18:08:25 GMT -5
No one suggested finances were at risk. The theory that Brady wants to set himself up to be released is just a reach if there ever were one especially since that probability is near nil. They'd still trade him in your scenario.
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 31, 2014 20:22:57 GMT -5
No one suggested finances were at risk. The theory that Brady wants to set himself up to be released is just a reach if there ever were one especially since that probability is near nil. They'd still trade him in your scenario. You have to understand that this contract rework is quite extraordinary. The reason that was passed out to the public via Adam Schefter, cash flow, is just bull**** ... the extra $1m/year added to Brady's contract is more than the interest Kraft would have to pay if he really didn't have the cash on hand (and, as Barnwell pointed out in his article, he's known that the cash would be needed now for years, it's not like it suddenly came up and he has to sell investments below value or whatever). The problem is that this explanation, weird as it seems, is the only one anyone has been able to come up with. But if you have a better theory, go ahead, enlighten us.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 31, 2014 21:32:27 GMT -5
First of all the yearly interest at 10% on 24m is 2.4 million. At 5% it's 1.2m so the 1m is less than any reasonable interest payment on 24m is. It's probably a couple of things. One Brady is under paid so to reward him for his play and him not being a jerk and holding out they offered him and extra million a year to free up their need to put 24m into an escrow account so they could re allocate those dollars to bonuses for other players to make a stronger team.
You're god damn right it's a unique situation and Brady is a unique individual. What other athlete in his position would take such a below market deal to help himself win? The funny thing is there are two other current athletes doing this. Dirk and Tim Duncan. These guys are an odd refreshing breed who are in unique situations where they are incredibly rich and just want to win. Brady isnt even his families bread winner.
Is the need overblown? Probably but it doesn't change that this makes it easier for the Patriots to do this and that Brady is unique for helping them out. It's not a conspiracy.
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 31, 2014 22:14:08 GMT -5
First of all the yearly interest at 10% on 24m is 2.4 million. At 5% it's 1.2m so the 1m is less than any reasonable interest payment on 24m is. It's $1m per year. That's $3m total. Which is less than 1 year of interest on $8m plus 2 years of interest on $9m even at 10% (which I highly doubt the Patriots would have to pay, 5% is likely to be much closer to the mark).
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 31, 2014 22:15:41 GMT -5
What other athlete in his position would take such a below market deal to help himself win? Oh and this restructuring takes away $3m in cap room, so if winning is the only goal this restructure is a big fail. Anyway I guess it's pointless talking to you about this if you don't even understand what happened.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 31, 2014 23:09:29 GMT -5
First of all the yearly interest at 10% on 24m is 2.4 million. At 5% it's 1.2m so the 1m is less than any reasonable interest payment on 24m is. It's $1m per year. That's $3m total. Which is less than 1 year of interest on $8m plus 2 years of interest on $9m even at 10% (which I highly doubt the Patriots would have to pay, 5% is likely to be much closer to the mark). They have to put 24m into escrow in year one not 8m. Then after the first year the NFL pays out the money so then they have 24m - the pay out in escrow the second year.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 31, 2014 23:18:10 GMT -5
What other athlete in his position would take such a below market deal to help himself win? Oh and this restructuring takes away $3m in cap room, so if winning is the only goal this restructure is a big fail. Anyway I guess it's pointless talking to you about this if you don't even understand what happened. Wow you're not just an idiot you're a jerk too... It takes away a million a year in cap room yes, but the cap is easily manipulated in the NFL. Cash spending and the salary cap are completely different. In 2012 the Pats spent about a 168m in cash with a cap number of about 120. Considering they have some high profile signings with high bonuses to take care of they seem to be gearing up to do something similar this year. They paid Revis a lot more money than what his cap number was this year and similar things will probably happen this offseason.
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Post by jmei on Jan 1, 2015 13:12:06 GMT -5
In the current market, interest rates for a secured loan for a corporate borrower with very low credit risk aren't close to 10% or even 5%. Interest rates are usually set at LIBOR plus some percentage, and LIBOR rates are at historic lows (0.63%). A very conservative estimate might be 3-4% annual interest, and at that rate, they'd save only something like $1.5m-$2m in interest payments, which is more than offset by the additional salary they're committing to Brady (and there aren't cap shenanigans associated with that extra $3m salary-- it is almost certainly going to be paid in full, unless Brady is released). Again: the cash flow explanation just doesn't hold up.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 1, 2015 15:22:50 GMT -5
It holds up a lot more than anything anyone else has suggested.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 1, 2015 15:28:48 GMT -5
And it's not necessarily about coming up with 24m on its own. If they spend out 50m in bonus money then it's the difference of coming up with 50m instead of 74m. Teams like he Patriots Especially have a certain business model based off of cash flow and things like this matter to them whether we feel they should or not.
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Post by jmei on Jan 1, 2015 16:00:01 GMT -5
Do you have any evidence at all that suggests that the Patriots are now or have ever been concerned with cash flow? I've detailed why that hypothesis just makes no economic sense, and you've not written or linked to anything that goes beyond bare assertion. As someone who has reviewed the financial records of multiple NFL teams as part of my day job, I'm telling you, cash flow is not an issue for expenditures of this magnitude.
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Post by mgoetze on Jan 1, 2015 17:07:14 GMT -5
Meanwhile, the situation in Buffalo is deteriorating rapidly. A quick recap:
- Ray Farmer traded away Buffalo's 2015 1st round pick. - EJ Manuel turned out to be a bust. - Kyle Orton retired. - Doug Marrone opted out of his contract, will get paid $4m for not coaching the Bills in 2015. - Despite all this their defense is so good and their schedule so weak that they are unlikely to get a top 5 pick in the 2016 draft. - Pegula negotiated with Bill Polian to get him into the organization, behind the back of incumbent CEO Russ Brandon. The negotiations failed because Pegula was unwilling to meet Polian's pricetag.
Looks like the Dolphins will be the undisputed second-best team in the AFC East for quite a while.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 1, 2015 17:35:12 GMT -5
Jmei I've never disputed they financially don't need to but I know from years of following this team they put self imposed restraints on themselves for reason they deem to be business oriented. The fact is this gives them 24 more million to work with whether we reasonably think they need it to be available or not. It's still there vs not being there. I believe it's a lot more plausible they wanted this freed up than they or Brady wanted to make it easier to release him. But hey I've been wrong before.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 1, 2015 17:39:52 GMT -5
Is Orton retiring that be a blow? Spikes and Hughes are also free agents. Regardless, I think Miami is clearly a better team, but the Jets aren't as far away as people think if they can find a QB. Great defensive line, decent receivers and TE and solid running backs. They have a mountain of cap room. Of course getting a QB is the hardest thing in football.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jan 1, 2015 18:39:14 GMT -5
The Jets couldn't get a top 5 draft pick so they likely won't get Mariota or Winston.
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