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Sox: Headed up or headed down?
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Post by jmei on Sept 11, 2014 6:34:03 GMT -5
Honest question: if they miss the playoffs, does it matter if they miss by one game or by twenty games? I understand that "competing" creates entertainment value for the fan base even if they ultimate miss the playoffs (or, for that matter, if they lose in the playoffs), but if the mentality is World-Series-win-or-bust, it shouldn't really matter. Indeed, in that lens, it may be better to miss the playoffs by a lot, since that way you at least get a higher draft pick and a protected pick. Sure, this is true if you can tell the future, but thats not the case, and a team with a true talent level of 1 game out will make the playoffs and win the WS a decent amount. A better phrasing would've been should make playoffs every year. Of course **** happens like all those injuries in 2010, but this team was not a result of that. Look at the sox in the 2000s I thought we were looking at ex post results, not ex ante intent. Once it was clear this team was unlikely to make the playoffs, the front office traded half the roster and made the team much, much worse in the short-term. They could well have kept Lester and Lackey and the rest, and they might have ended the season around .500. But they clearly made the right long-term decision by selling all the short-term pieces and punting 2014. That's why it doesn't really matter how bad their final record is this year-- because having that bad one-year record sets up the team to be the the best it can be in 2015 and beyond. Remember, the front office, as well as literally every publicly-available projection system, thought the 2014 Red Sox had the true talent level of one of the best teams in baseball. For many of the reasons Eric discusses above, that didn't happen, and it's not entirely the fault of the front office (although they certainly made plenty of blameworthy decisions). Bad performance luck is every bit as unpredictable as injury luck. Literally every player on the roster performed worse than their median projections this year, except for Lester, Lackey, and Holt. It was entirely unpredictable that veterans like Pedroia and Ortiz and Napoli and Nava (at least to start the year) and Pierzynski and Carp and Buchholz and Doubront and Peavy would all be significantly worse than their track record, while only Holt and Lester pitched significantly better than expected.
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Post by soxfan1615 on Sept 11, 2014 6:42:05 GMT -5
Sure, this is true if you can tell the future, but thats not the case, and a team with a true talent level of 1 game out will make the playoffs and win the WS a decent amount. A better phrasing would've been should make playoffs every year. Of course **** happens like all those injuries in 2010, but this team was not a result of that. Look at the sox in the 2000s I thought we were looking at ex post results, not ex ante intent. Once it was clear this team was unlikely to make the playoffs, the front office traded half the roster and made the team much, much worse in the short-term. They could well have kept Lester and Lackey and the rest, and they might have ended the season around .500. But they clearly made the right long-term decision by selling all the short-term pieces and punting 2014. That's why it doesn't really matter how bad their final record is this year-- because having that bad one-year record sets up the team to be the the best it can be in 2015 and beyond. Remember, the front office, as well as literally every publicly-available projection system, thought the 2014 Red Sox had the true talent level of one of the best teams in baseball. For many of the reasons Eric discusses above, that didn't happen, and it's not entirely the fault of the front office (although they certainly made plenty of blameworthy decisions). Bad performance luck is every bit as unpredictable as injury luck. Literally every player on the roster performed worse than their median projections this year, except for Lester, Lackey, and Holt. It was entirely unpredictable that veterans like Pedroia and Ortiz and Napoli and Nava (at least to start the year) and Pierzynski and Carp and Buchholz and Doubront and Peavy would all be significantly worse than their track record, while only Holt and Lester pitched significantly better than expected. Napoli didn't really underperform. Ortiz did I guess but he was not bad at all and you could expect that with age. Pierzynski, ok but he was supposed to suck anyway. They also had a gaping hole at 3B and tons of question marks they didn't adress i have no problem with trading away players if the season is lost but it shouldn't be lost.
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Post by jmei on Sept 11, 2014 6:44:04 GMT -5
Money is almost everything too. I can't do this right now bc im on my phone but id bet 90% of teams with non amaro gms that spend as much as the sox did this year make the playoffs or at least come close Here's another link about how this is demonstrably false in the current era: www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20140825-money-can-t-buy-success-for-mlb-teams-anymore.eceBy the way, this attitude of "just spend money and you'll win" is exactly why large-payroll teams are no longer as dominant as they used to be. Teams are locking up the elite talent, and in the post-PED era, aging curves are steeper than ever, which means spending cash in free agency is less efficient than ever because you're paying for over-the-hill guys. You need a strong core to have sustainable success, and this current crop of guys looks promising.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 11, 2014 7:01:12 GMT -5
I love the angst. I'm with fogey and jmei, but I love the guys screaming about ownership not being committed to winning. I'm not as old as ASF but i was around for the Jean Yawkey/John Harrington era. You guys are funny......waiting for godot I've had that conversation with him, still don't get the JH hate compared to what we had before. It's probably not realistic, but it sure did feel like we wouldn't have ever won a WS without the current ownership.
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Post by jmei on Sept 11, 2014 7:01:47 GMT -5
Napoli didn't really underperform. Ortiz did I guess but he was not bad at all and you could expect that with age. Pierzynski, ok but he was supposed to suck anyway. They also had a gaping hole at 3B and tons of question marks they didn't adress i have no problem with trading away players if the season is lost but it shouldn't be lost. Napoli was injured a good chunk of the year. Ortiz had his worst offensive season since 2010. He had a first half wRC+ of 126, which is down 25 points from last year. Even taking into account aging and regression, he performed worse than you would expect. Pierzynski had a wRC+ of 71 after putting up 90, 119, and 92 the last three years. Middlebrooks was injured and then below-replacement level, while Cecchini had an out-of-nowhere terrible year. Like I said, all of those underperformances represented unlikely occurrences. Relying on any player represents, to a greater or lesser degree, a dice roll, and all their dice rolls came up empty. Yes, the front office made a lot of foreseeable mistakes, but some of it was just bad luck.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 11, 2014 7:09:33 GMT -5
I really hope Workman doesn't enter 2015 as a starter. I really like him, but results and eye test tell me he should stick to the pen where he's more likely to make a career. Please. This has been gone over before.. The guy is tired. His numbers now prove it with velocity now as to earlier in the season. A guy who cannot throw 92 now, yet throw 94 occasionally hit 95 1-2 times and is struggling to stay 89-90 has no business being on the mound starting anything right now, especially when Barnes was just called up. Workman has been (like you noted) getting thrashed around, Farrell is supposed to know pitching, yet seems to be turning a blind eye to something so obvious here to make a point. I said this same thing after his last horrible start and was half joking, this time am not. This is abuse. Wright would be better, Barnes (especially) it's not like there are not better choices. The only thing coming out of this would be losing trade value if Cherrington would have something cooking and a team would have liked him in some deal, but after getting so destroyed in his last half dozen or so starts, Farrell has seen to it that it's now history also. He's pulled a Francona maneuver with Workman.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 11, 2014 7:17:46 GMT -5
I really hope Workman doesn't enter 2015 as a starter. I really like him, but results and eye test tell me he should stick to the pen where he's more likely to make a career. Please. This has been gone over before.. The guy is tired. His numbers now prove it with velocity now as to earlier in the season. A guy who cannot throw 92 now, yet throw 94 occasionally hit 95 1-2 times and is struggling to stay 89-90 has no business being on the mound starting anything right now, especially when Barnes was just called up. Workman has been (like you noted) getting thrashed around, Farrell is supposed to know pitching, yet seems to be turning a blind eye to something so obvious here to make a point. I said this same thing after his last horrible start and was half joking, this time am not. This is abuse. Wright would be better, Barnes (especially) it's not like there are not better choices. The only thing coming out of this would be losing trade value if Cherrington would have something cooking and a team would have liked him in some deal, but after getting so destroyed in his last half dozen or so starts, Farrell has seen to it that it's now history also. He's pulled a Francona maneuver with Workman. Workman typically sits 90 as a starter. He was ramping up to 94 as a RP last year. I think he's a RP in the future, because his fastball just isn't good enough as a starter, especially if he loses a couple more ticks.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 11, 2014 7:56:26 GMT -5
I love the angst. I'm with fogey and jmei, but I love the guys screaming about ownership not being committed to winning. I'm not as old as ASF but i was around for the Jean Yawkey/John Harrington era. You guys are funny......waiting for godot I've had that conversation with him, still don't get the JH hate compared to what we had before. It's probably not realistic, but it sure did feel like we wouldn't have ever won a WS without the current ownership. Jimed14...respectfully...you have made this argument more that once....and it has credence...but it's not like the Red Sox were fielding bad ballclubs. We could've just as easily won in 67 or 75 or 86...and the 78 ballclub was a great team. We also ran into major buzzsaw's with early 90's A's and the late 90's Yankees.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 11, 2014 8:05:09 GMT -5
I've had that conversation with him, still don't get the JH hate compared to what we had before. It's probably not realistic, but it sure did feel like we wouldn't have ever won a WS without the current ownership. Jimed14...respectfully...you have made this argument more that once....and it has credence...but it's not like the Red Sox were fielding bad ballclubs. We could've just as easily won in 75 or 86...and the 78 ballclub was a great team. We also ran into major buzzsaw's with early 90's A's and the late 90's Yankees. We also made a lot of boneheaded, non-baseball decisions back then like letting Carlton Fisk go when he was 32 and still one of the best 2-3 catchers in baseball. And the pitching was never good enough.
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 11, 2014 8:11:03 GMT -5
It seems that all the 'new' pitchers we have tried this year have come up short save Kelly. All of them have their warts. Unless we spend, spend, spend it appears as though it will be a chilly day in purgatory before we arise from the ashes. How many see middle up potential in Webster, Ranaudo, Workman, Owens, Barnes (maybe) or Johnson? Will any of those guys bring rain in trades--- even if packaged? The bullpen and lineup also need to be re-tooled. Tazawa and Layne are the only guys right now that look serviceable in the pen. Koji is 40. We are one of the few (any others?) that do not have power arms in the bullpen...representative of baseball's new end-game wave. We have added Mookie, Xander and Cespedes but still look thin at the plate going forward. Our starting catcher, great defensively, has zero homeruns....and Swihart is at least a year away. The Sox reputedly have about 60M to spend. That will not be enough in this era, will likely cost picks (yes I know #1 is protected) and will represent abandonment of their espoused core philosophies. The crystal ball is cloudy.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Sept 11, 2014 8:38:47 GMT -5
I would want Vazquez as the starter next season if the Sox are going to continue to bring along kids with inexperience. Let someone who is +++++ defensively sit behind the dish and take care of them while they groom into major league pitchers. Give them one less thing to worry about before having them struggle with someone like AJ Pierzynski. I do believe they will go out and resign Lester to save PR and will probably make a splash by trading for Hamels and filling out the rotation with whatever starting pitching prospects they have left and Buchholz.
They will also have a few more dollars to play with if the dump either Victorino and/or Napoli as they have the resources to replace them both. I also believe you are forgetting Castillo so either he or Betts is likely gone this off-season as part of a package for a bigger piece. I would like to see Betts supplant Pedroia, but I know that will never happen. I'm willing to give Middlebrooks a very short leash next season. If Checchini doesn't want to take control of his opportunity they still have Holt and Xander as options with Marrero at SS. If all of those options fail then a mid-season trade isn't out of the realm of possibilities either. There will always be Chase Headly's available. The offense will be fine as long as Xander continues to progress, Ortiz doesn't turn into an old man next season, Cespedes can improve a bit on his base on balls, and Craig can return to his former glory (assuming Napoli is gone).
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 11, 2014 9:38:14 GMT -5
Money is almost everything too. I can't do this right now bc im on my phone but id bet 90% of teams with non amaro gms that spend as much as the sox did this year make the playoffs or at least come close Here's another link about how this is demonstrably false in the current era: www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20140825-money-can-t-buy-success-for-mlb-teams-anymore.eceBy the way, this attitude of "just spend money and you'll win" is exactly why large-payroll teams are no longer as dominant as they used to be. Teams are locking up the elite talent, and in the post-PED era, aging curves are steeper than ever, which means spending cash in free agency is less efficient than ever because you're paying for over-the-hill guys. You need a strong core to have sustainable success, and this current crop of guys looks promising. I think we're forgetting how bleak things looked after 2012. The plan for a Gonzalez/Crawford/Ellsbury/Pedroia core over Papi's final years blew up on the team, and the farm system really didn't have any major help on the immediate horizon, although everyone was (over) enthusiastic about WMB at the time. The front office had an inspired 2012-2013 offseason, and no one really had bad years in 2013. I maintain that it wasn't an outlandishly lucky season because there were few career years in there, either, but it was definitely notable for a lack of downside luck manifested. But the foundation of the team still wasn't very strong. The Epstein/Henry/Lucchino team had become unproductive over its last few years for whatever reason - chasing immediate success and "feeding the Monster" - and what I consider the utterly disastrous international development regime of Craig Shipley contributed to make team ill prepared to replace the Kellys and Rizzos of the world that they traded away (they had a few relatively poor drafts, too, but I think that just comes with the territory). So, look, this organization just isn't a juggernaut, at least not yet. I'm not totally sure you can really create a dynasty in today's MLB, but this team was not it. So they had to gamble in a few places that they knew were gambles (catcher, 3rd, CF, Victorino's health), and they lost all of them. They even lost what I and they probably considered a safe bet in Xander's performance this year (that guy's still gonna be a superstar, though) and with the pitching staff. Outside of Lester and probably the bullpen, nothing worked. They made some clear mistakes that they shouldn't have made (OF depth, Drew signing, probably AJ Placeholder), but they really were fairly marginal issues, as Eric mentioned. Maybe in 2-3 years, the team looks like a juggernaut, with Bogaerts and Betts (and Swihart!) stars, some combo of Owens/Barnes/Johnson/etc helping anchor the rotation, a big name acquisition adding juice, Margot and Rijo top prospects in the upper minors, guys like Devers, Chavis, Kopech, Ball, etc blowing up in A+/AA ... but the reality of taking a few gambles is going to be true next year, too, I think, as the foundation of the organization continues to get strengthened.
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Post by mgoetze on Sept 11, 2014 9:46:01 GMT -5
None of the things that ruined this season seem likely to have long-term negative impact. However, next year we are going to be stuck with Joe Kelly and Allen Craig rather than John Lackey.
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 11, 2014 9:50:42 GMT -5
Money is almost everything too. I can't do this right now bc im on my phone but id bet 90% of teams with non amaro gms that spend as much as the sox did this year make the playoffs or at least come close Would you rather we spend like drunken sailors (see Yankees) and miss the playoffs and then be saddled with albatross contracts? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 11, 2014 10:01:49 GMT -5
My own take, but I think Kelly, Barnes, and De La Rosa slot in somewhere at 3 through 5. I think the latter two have more upside than that though. That leaves Buchholz and whoever they acquire in the marketplace or through trades.
As for Castillo and Betts, I think they're both on the team next year. Again this is my own opinion, but I'd take Betts over Ellsbury right now. Cespedes is fine in LF but nowhere else. Add in healthy versions of Napoli and Pedroia, an improving Bogaerts and an Ortiz who hasn't regressed too much, and you've got Holt, Nava and Victorino on the bench. That leaves the big hole at third which has to be filled and another catcher. All of that is without any trades, but I expect some movement.
Can the additional parts they bring on get them into playoff contention? That will be the big question. But that's a good core to start off with, I think.
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Post by soxfan1615 on Sept 11, 2014 10:05:14 GMT -5
Let me clarify. Im not at all unhappy with ownership. 3 championships in only 12 years as owners is more than anyone could ask for. I just think it's cause for concern that this team has 2 awful seasons the last 3 years (obviously made better by WS)
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Post by jmei on Sept 11, 2014 10:14:18 GMT -5
The thing is, those awful seasons are only awful (and not just run-of-the-mill bad) because the team chose to punt the latter thirds of each respective season, trading away many of their productive veterans, benching anyone with even vague health issues, and instead going with young players and replacement-level scrubs.
I agree that it's worrying that they've not been in the playoff race two out of the last three years. But the hysteria over finishing last in the division or having high draft picks is overblown, IMO. It shouldn't really matter whether they finish the season .500 or .400, and indeed the latter may even be preferable.
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Post by soxfan1615 on Sept 11, 2014 10:18:40 GMT -5
The thing is, those awful seasons are only awful (and not just run-of-the-mill bad) because the team chose to punt the latter thirds of each respective season, trading away many of their productive veterans, benching anyone with even vague health issues, and instead going with young players and replacement-level scrubs. I agree that it's worrying that they've not been in the playoff race two out of the last three years. But the hysteria over finishing last in the division or having high draft picks is overblown, IMO. It shouldn't really matter whether they finish the season .500 or .400, and indeed the latter may even be preferable. This was sort of true in 2012 but we were still out of contention but this year we were terrible before the trades
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Post by jmei on Sept 11, 2014 10:26:42 GMT -5
As recently as ten days before the trade deadline, the Red Sox were 47-52 and six games out of a playoff spot.
Of course, they then lost five games in a row and became full-fledged sellers. But if they had kept the roster together and had played hard the rest of the way, I think they would have been no worse than a few games under .500.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Sept 11, 2014 10:34:55 GMT -5
My question is, who is happier today, the Red Sox fan who is currently sitting with the protected 5th overall draft pick or the Yankees fan who has a late unprotected pick and a record barely going over .500 while still missing the playoffs?
What's the old saying? Started from the bottom now we here.
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Post by soxfan1615 on Sept 11, 2014 11:01:43 GMT -5
My question is, who is happier today, the Red Sox fan who is currently sitting with the protected 5th overall draft pick or the Yankees fan who has a late unprotected pick and a record barely going over .500 while still missing the playoffs? What's the old saying? Started from the bottom now we here. Well the red sox obviously have a better future outlook but id rather have the yankees record. It means you are closer to competing and may be more attractive to FAs
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Sept 11, 2014 11:16:32 GMT -5
My question is, who is happier today, the Red Sox fan who is currently sitting with the protected 5th overall draft pick or the Yankees fan who has a late unprotected pick and a record barely going over .500 while still missing the playoffs? What's the old saying? Started from the bottom now we here. Well the red sox obviously have a better future outlook but id rather have the yankees record. It means you are closer to competing and may be more attractive to FAs I would say 99% of free agents only care about the dollar signs. It's why Ginacarlo Stanton might actually end up re-signing with the Marlins if they actually follow their words and offer him a lucrative contract. I mean, look at Mariners and their ability to land Robinson Cano away from the Yankees of all teams. Even when the Red Sox were in their prime I don't remember a player ever taking less to go play for them. I've heard of players taking a hometown discount (Mike Lowell), but not take less to come play here from another team. As far as being middle-of-the-pack. I think that's a matter of perspective. Did your mediocre team over-perform, under-perform, or perform as expected? I believe a case can be made that the Yankees vastly over-achieved and they are still barely above .500. Does your team have youth and emerging stars or are they saddled with old and expiring contracts? The Yankees have studs in Tanaka and Pineda, but that's about it. Pineda needs to prove he can stay healthy and Tanaka still might need TJ. If they get Lester or Scherzer they will bolster their already potent rotation, but both Scherzer and Lester are aging pitchers with a lot of innings thrown. As for the rest of their team, they are very aged and don't have any young budding positional players. Mix this with the fact that players are beginning to show their ages as appropriate (I wonder why?). Still there are many examples of teams "on the cusp" that haven't won anything, but then again, you can argue how has being in last place worked out for the Astros and Cubs? However, if I may be bold, I will say that the Cubs are closer today than the Yankees are in terms of who will win a WS title between the two of them with the abundance of prospects the Cubs have acquired over the last few years.
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Post by soxcentral on Sept 11, 2014 11:26:38 GMT -5
My own take, but I think Kelly, Barnes, and De La Rosa slot in somewhere at 3 through 5. I think the latter two have more upside than that though. That leaves Buchholz and whoever they acquire in the marketplace or through trades. As for Castillo and Betts, I think they're both on the team next year. Again this is my own opinion, but I'd take Betts over Ellsbury right now. Cespedes is fine in LF but nowhere else. Add in healthy versions of Napoli and Pedroia, an improving Bogaerts and an Ortiz who hasn't regressed too much, and you've got Holt, Nava and Victorino on the bench. That leaves the big hole at third which has to be filled and another catcher. All of that is without any trades, but I expect some movement. Can the additional parts they bring on get them into playoff contention? That will be the big question. But that's a good core to start off with, I think. I agree with this completely. If, and these are two very big IF's, we can acquire a top starting pitcher and a 3B this offseason we are likely to field a very competitive team for 2015. The future is not as bleak as some here seem to keep projecting, but they do have 2 clear tasks to accomplish through free agency and trades.
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 11, 2014 11:30:09 GMT -5
I would say 99% of free agents only care about the dollar signs. It's why Ginacarlo Stanton might actually end up re-signing with the Marlins if they actually follow their words and offer him a lucrative contract. I mean, look at Mariners and their ability to land Robinson Cano away from the Yankees of all teams. Even when the Red Sox were in their prime I don't remember a player ever taking less to go play for them. I've heard of players taking a hometown discount (Mike Lowell), but not take less to come play here from another team. What about Drew for the 2013 season wasn't he offered more by the Yankees but he wanted to be guaranteed to play SS and took the sox offer which was lower.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 11, 2014 11:48:56 GMT -5
I'm old enough to remember listening to the Redsox on the radio in 67 because we didn't get to see them very often up in Maine. It's part of the reason I became such a big fan. Yaz was a superhero to a 12 year old kid listening to every game from that year on the radio. Especially at the end of the year and during the series.
But we all have to adapt right? We are in a new era of revenue sharing where any team with a good front office and a little luck can win it all. For example, Baltimore has an ambulatory idiot for a manager to me but they are winning. Every dog has his day now.
And we should just get used to it and appreciate everything which comes our way. For example, the Mookster! Yes, there is a God!
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