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Post by Gwell55 on Nov 11, 2014 16:38:57 GMT -5
Assuming he's not wildly more expensive than Sandoval I much prefer Hanley. The problem is, of course, that Hanley seems likely to get a larger deal. The question, as always, then comes down to how much more you're willing to pay for the better player. Don't we also need left handed bats not a solid righty minus one lineup to be competitive?
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Post by charliezink16 on Nov 11, 2014 16:43:52 GMT -5
Really the only thing keeping me from preferring Hanley to Sandoval/Headley/Murphy is the fact that he's a RHH. I understand, when you're going 4-6 years and potential 9-digit figures, you don't base it off of which side of the plate the guy hits from, but the RH/LH issue is one we can't overlook.
SS - Xander (RH) 2B - Pedroia (RH) 1B - Napoli (RH) C - Vazquez (RH) 3B - Hanley (RH) RF - Betts (RH) CF - Castillo (RH) LF - Cespedes (RH)
The only full time LH bat we'd have would be Big Papi. Nava will play against RHP's, of course, and maybe we trade for Jason Castro and occasionally start him against RHP's. Of course the roster will fluctuate between now and opening day, so we don't know which players listed above will still be in Boston, but the point remains.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 11, 2014 17:01:55 GMT -5
So would you rather have a poor left handed hitter just to get a left handed hitter? You really need to compare how the splits are versus RHP to see how much of an issue it is.
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danr
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Post by danr on Nov 11, 2014 17:25:55 GMT -5
There isn't nearly the drop-off in hitting by righthand batters against righthand pitchers as there is among lefthand hitters against lefthand pitchers. Here are the OPS of everyone except Castillo, who had so few ABs, the stats are meaningless.
Xander RH:.610, LH: .786 Pedroia RH: .797, LH: .727 Napoli RH: .826, LH: .911 Vazquez RH: .638, LH: .539 Hanley RH .860, LH: .913 Betts .798, LH: .786 Cespedes .770, LH: .805 Average RH: .757 LH: .781
Pedroia, Cespedes and Vazquez have higher BAs against RH pitchers than they do against LHPs. Bogaerts has the largest drop in BA against RHPs.
My conclusion is that while it would be slightly advantageous to add another LH bat, not doing it will not have a statistically significant effect on team performance.
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Post by redsox1534 on Nov 11, 2014 17:30:32 GMT -5
Was thinking Chase Utley would make a nice addition to this team. Veteran with a nice left handed bat. Plug him in at 3B. I think he could handle it. Philly needs a jolt of youth and talent, not to mention they just to blow up that team period and start over. Id be interested if they ate a little salary and would could swing Ranuado/Workman along with Coyle for him.
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Post by Gwell55 on Nov 11, 2014 17:39:28 GMT -5
So would you rather have a poor left handed hitter just to get a left handed hitter? You really need to compare how the splits are versus RHP to see how much of an issue it is. Our Gm and his staff have all talked and been rumored to talk about this quite a few times that is the need for another strong left handed bat as a immediate need for this coming season. I to don't believe this team can compete for the whole season with a lineup to short on lefties. .304 .357 .493 and OPS of 850 than another righty in the lineup who hits good against a fair share of mediocre lefties but than struggles against the good ones. That being true when the chips are on the line. But that is just me I guess.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 11, 2014 17:45:14 GMT -5
Was thinking Chase Utley would make a nice addition to this team. Veteran with a nice left handed bat. Plug him in at 3B. I think he could handle it. Philly needs a jolt of youth and talent, not to mention they just to blow up that team period and start over. Id be interested if they ate a little salary and would could swing Ranuado/Workman along with Coyle for him. I like the idea - wonder if Amaro would be willing to part with Utley/Hamels in a package if it netted him Betts (apologize for the trade speculation).
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 11, 2014 18:20:03 GMT -5
So would you rather have a poor left handed hitter just to get a left handed hitter? You really need to compare how the splits are versus RHP to see how much of an issue it is. Our Gm and his staff have all talked and been rumored to talk about this quite a few times that is the need for another strong left handed bat as a immediate need for this coming season. I to don't believe this team can compete for the whole season with a lineup to short on lefties. .304 .357 .493 and OPS of 850 than another righty in the lineup who hits good against a fair share of mediocre lefties but than struggles against the good ones. That being true when the chips are on the line. But that is just me I guess. Yea it's no doubt ideal to add a left handed bat or two or three but it's got to be the right LHH not just any LHH. Personally, I think Headley is a bit over-rated but he's not bad so on the right contract he could be good. There's just not a lot out there so teams, including the Red Sox will have to overpay for certain things. You just have to be careful as to what that is. I haven't fully developed this thought so I'm not going to expand, but taking into account the guys you currently have in he minors and how the free agents could fit 2-4 years from now, position changes etc... Who's the best fit?
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Post by taftreign on Nov 11, 2014 19:34:07 GMT -5
There isn't nearly the drop-off in hitting by righthand batters against righthand pitchers as there is among lefthand hitters against lefthand pitchers. Here are the OPS of everyone except Castillo, who had so few ABs, the stats are meaningless. Xander RH:.610, LH: .786 Pedroia RH: .797, LH: .727 Napoli RH: .826, LH: .911 Vazquez RH: .638, LH: .539 Hanley RH .860, LH: .913 Betts .798, LH: .786 Cespedes .770, LH: .805 Average RH: .757 LH: .781 Pedroia, Cespedes and Vazquez have higher BAs against RH pitchers than they do against LHPs. Bogaerts has the largest drop in BA against RHPs. My conclusion is that while it would be slightly advantageous to add another LH bat, not doing it will not have a statistically significant effect on team performance. Additionally the team will have RH bats in Napoli, Cespedes and Victorino entering free agency after this season. The team also is likely to add a switch hitting C at some point next season in Swihart and quite likely a LH hitting 3B/LF in Cecchini if not this season. There is also Travis Shaw who may be able to serve the roster in some capacity. The lineup may lean a bit RH heavy this season but as danr points out its not the matchup issue it would seem. You still have Nava and Cecchini who can offer platoon options, day off replacements or pinch hit AB's. It would still likely be very prudent to add a LHer or switch hitter either via trade or via FA next offseason. If you consider Nava or Cecchini as more full time LF options then the main position to add a LH hitter is 1B to replace Napoli considering we are projecting under this scenario for 3B(Hanley), SS (Bogaerts), 2B (Pedroia), CF (Castillo) and RF (Betts) to be locked down longer term by RH bats and C (Swihart) to be locked down long term by a switch hitting bat. However the only substantial but questionable LH 1B bat in FA next offseason is Chris Davis of the Orioles. As for trade is it really possible to land a Hosmer or Belt via trade? Maybe not. It's likely the front office has considered the future options and believes that landing a LH 3B this season allowing more possibilities to fill the 1B and/or LF positions next offseason is a better alternative. But I don't think they've ruled it out as an option. For example sign Hanley at 3B and land a lefty in Heyward to play RF moving Betts to LF and giving Nava more time at 1B and 4th OFer.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 11, 2014 19:46:46 GMT -5
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Nov 11, 2014 20:27:49 GMT -5
This potential signing of Sandoval seems like the reactionary signing the Red Sox made a few years ago when the signed Crawford and we all know how that worked out. Sandoval is not going to age well with his body type. He is going to eat his way out of the league like Kevin Mitchell did a number of years ago. The problem will made worse by the fact there won't be another team like the Dodgers to bail them out of the bad contract.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 11, 2014 21:56:33 GMT -5
It seems the Sox will wind up signing Sandoval or perhaps Ramirez to play 3b. If the Sox don't buy that Cecchini will be an acceptable defensive 3b that means the only way to plug from within would be to shift Bogaerts to 3b and insert light hitting Marrero as the SS.
If the Sox sign a 3b that makes Marrero who does have trade value, a valuable chip and that means that Bogaerts is the SS until one of their A ball SS are ready, which is about 3 years away.
So that means we're looking at a game of musical chairs. I figure it's a coin flip as to whether Sandoval goes back to the Giants or heads to Boston.
I figure the Sox sign Hanley (or attempt to) if Sandoval goes back to SF, but if reports are to be believed, Seattle is probably going to outbid everybody for Hanley.
So there's Headley, but most likely he's headed back to NY.
So if the Sox don't hit on those three options, there is Kang coming over from Korea as a strong possibility.
My preference would be (in order): 1) Ramirez (I believe his ceiling would be ultimately higher and that he has an MVP type season or two left in him). 2) Kang (I think he could be an excellent lower cost solution although he's a big risk of course). And of course if the Sox signed Lester and Kang, they wouldn't have to surrender any draft picks. 3) Sandoval (I think he might give the Sox one or two good seasons, but would be albatross afterwards - I just think when he declines, it will go all at once. 4) Headley (I don't think he's that good a player - he had that one great season for Seattle, and I think he is definitely headed back to the Yankees anyways)
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Nov 12, 2014 7:29:56 GMT -5
I think a Sandoval signing indicates this front office is bleepin clueless. And, I usually stick up for them. The drunk, rich guy throwing money around with no purpose. This fat arse will be 300 pounds of dead weight in a year two. With an un-moveable contract that a heavy crane couldn't move. We've got Cecchini looming. Possible Xander ends up there. My preference is Mookie. Tell me in two years that Mookie wouldn't be a better option at 3b than that fat turd.
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Post by jmei on Nov 12, 2014 8:43:31 GMT -5
Food for thought re: Hanley's makeup: between well-respected countryman David Ortiz, former teammate Dustin Pedroia, and a player-friendly but no-nonsense manager in John Farrell, there might not be a better clubhouse fit in the league.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 12, 2014 8:49:00 GMT -5
Ken Rosenthal ?@ken_Rosenthal Sandoval market appears down to #SFGiants, #RedSox. #WhiteSox interest seems limited, #BlueJays same. And Red Sox weighing other options.
Ken Rosenthal ?@ken_Rosenthal As with any FA, things can change quickly for Sandoval; a new team could jump into bidding. But unless BOS makes big play, SF favorite.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 12, 2014 12:14:27 GMT -5
Headley never played in Seattle, but I do agree he's a bit over-rated by many. He'd be a mistake at Napoli money or more. A Victorino contract or less is more like it.
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Post by thursty on Nov 12, 2014 13:08:05 GMT -5
There isn't nearly the drop-off in hitting by righthand batters against righthand pitchers as there is among lefthand hitters against lefthand pitchers. Here are the OPS of everyone except Castillo, who had so few ABs, the stats are meaningless. Xander RH:.610, LH: .786 Pedroia RH: .797, LH: .727 Napoli RH: .826, LH: .911 Vazquez RH: .638, LH: .539 Hanley RH .860, LH: .913 Betts .798, LH: .786 Cespedes .770, LH: .805 Average RH: .757 LH: .781 Pedroia, Cespedes and Vazquez have higher BAs against RH pitchers than they do against LHPs. Bogaerts has the largest drop in BA against RHPs. My conclusion is that while it would be slightly advantageous to add another LH bat, not doing it will not have a statistically significant effect on team performance. betts' splits were: RH: 798, LH: 843 (he had a 812 overall)
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Post by soxfan06 on Nov 12, 2014 13:10:25 GMT -5
Like I said in the offseason thread, I'd much rather throw money at Hanley than either Sandoval or Headley.
Hanley vs. RHP: .298/.367/.492/.860, .194 iso, 129 wRC+ Sandoval vs. RHP: .304/.357/.493/.850, .189 iso, 132 wRC+ Headley vs. RHP: .269/.357/.411/.768, .143 iso, 118 wRC+
Yes, Headley's numbers are probably a little deflated because he played in Petco for most of his career, but if we are going to pay big money for anyone it should be Hanley.
Not to mention that Hanley has pretty much no RvL splits while Sandoval, a switch hitter, has huge RvL splits to go along with his huge gut.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 12, 2014 13:46:40 GMT -5
I think a Sandoval signing indicates this front office is bleepin clueless. And, I usually stick up for them. The drunk, rich guy throwing money around with no purpose. This fat arse will be 300 pounds of dead weight in a year two. With an un-moveable contract that a heavy crane couldn't move. We've got Cecchini looming. Possible Xander ends up there. My preference is Mookie. Tell me in two years that Mookie wouldn't be a better option at 3b than that fat turd. I guess the Sox don't think that Mookie can handle 3b, that his arm is strong enough. I don't think the Sox think he can handle SS or 3b. Cecchini's defense is still a question mark and he might not wind up at 3b either. So the only internal possibility is Bogaerts at 3b and Marrero at SS, but you're sacrificing offense here as opposed to Bogaerts at SS and Sandoval or Ramirez at 3b. Of course the big question is will Bogaerts be a serviceable SS for the next several years if they deal away Marrero and grab a 3b? The next SS in line would be in A ball and the Sox have two potential SS down there, but are a few years away. I guess what I'm trying to say is I'm not thrilled that the Sox feel the need to go outside the organization to get a 3b, but I understand why, and I say that as somebody who is really high on Cecchini. I do believe he'll figure out 3b, be a .300 hitter with a bunch of walks and 15 to 20 homers per year eventually.
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Post by dmaineah on Nov 12, 2014 13:50:22 GMT -5
I don't think Cecchini is going to eventually hit 15 to 20 per year
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Post by GyIantosca on Nov 12, 2014 16:34:30 GMT -5
Listen Sandoval is not gonna sign here. If the Giants come close he is staying. Classic leverage ploy. Like Kent Hrbeck did to us against the Twins back in the day.
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nomar
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Posts: 11,501
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Post by nomar on Nov 12, 2014 16:35:03 GMT -5
I haven't noticed there's a lot of Seattle-Hanley talk. Has there been?
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 12, 2014 16:37:48 GMT -5
I would think Samdoval could easily move to first to replace Napoli or DH for PApi so long term he may not block third.
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Post by Smittyw on Nov 12, 2014 16:41:08 GMT -5
I would think Samdoval could easily move to first to replace Napoli or DH for PApi so long term he may not block third. I can't wait to have a 15-hr, .740 OPS 1B/DH making close to $20 million in a couple of years.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 12, 2014 16:43:30 GMT -5
I would think Samdoval could easily move to first to replace Napoli or DH for PApi so long term he may not block third. His 117 wRC+ at either of those spots will make him a ~2 WAR player and definitely nowhere near worth the $20 AAV hell likely get. If you want a 3B turn 1B/DH, you want the best bat available at the given value. I really hope SF signs him soon.
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