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Revisiting Lester's Spring Training contract negotiations
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Dec 6, 2014 17:47:07 GMT -5
I don't care what anyone says about the art of negotiating....Only really arrogant people would go into a negotiation with the best homegrown pitcher...who has performed above average in his career for this team..and think that the offer was just a starting point. Major League professionals have one chance...and assume a lot of risk...by waiting for the opportunity to cash in as a free agent.
People may be right about whether he was sincere or not about the hometown discount...but that is a totally separate issue than the original offer. I am pretty sure Ben and Company now realize that they'll have to pay more because of market influences to sign him.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 6, 2014 17:49:44 GMT -5
Wasn't the initial offer before the season started? At that point he hadn't had his Great season. In fact, I'd venture to guess that in June of the previous year, they were question if they would exercise his option for 2014. He pitched well below his talent level for a long time.
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Post by moonstone2 on Dec 6, 2014 17:58:09 GMT -5
I don't care what anyone says about the art of negotiating....Only really arrogant people would go into a negotiation with the best homegrown pitcher...who has performed above average in his career for this team..and think that the offer was just a starting point. Major League professionals have one chance...and assume a lot of risk...by waiting for the opportunity to cash in as a free agent. People may be right about whether he was sincere or not about the hometown discount...but that is a totally separate issue than the original offer. I am pretty sure Ben and Company now realize that they'll have to pay more because of market influences to sign him. Argument by ridicule. it was reasonable starting point for those who bother to look at his entire body of work at the time. No one did and no one does.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Dec 6, 2014 18:05:52 GMT -5
I don't care what anyone says about the art of negotiating....Only really arrogant people would go into a negotiation with the best homegrown pitcher...who has performed above average in his career for this team..and think that the offer was just a starting point. Major League professionals have one chance...and assume a lot of risk...by waiting for the opportunity to cash in as a free agent. People may be right about whether he was sincere or not about the hometown discount...but that is a totally separate issue than the original offer. I am pretty sure Ben and Company now realize that they'll have to pay more because of market influences to sign him. Argument by ridicule. it was reasonable starting point for those who bother to look at his entire body of work at the time. No one did and no one does. Right. Pitchers of Lester's pedigree always sign extensions in the neighborhood of 4yrs and 70 million.
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danr
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Post by danr on Dec 6, 2014 18:07:34 GMT -5
I don't think there is any rational way the first offer to Lester can be defended. Everyone on this board knew it was a low-ball and knew that a pitcher like him - even before this season - commands a 9-figure contract.
And the Sox management should know even more than we do what kind of effect low-ball offers usually have on players. They get pissed off. They feel disrespected. It happens all the time. Even Pedro felt that way about what the Sox offered him - and the Sox offer was a decent one (and, as it turned out, a very sensible one).
Based on the actions of the Sox management during the past year, I don't think I could rank them among the best managements in baseball. They have made a lot of mistakes.
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Post by jmei on Dec 6, 2014 18:19:20 GMT -5
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danr
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Post by danr on Dec 6, 2014 20:20:08 GMT -5
I don't recall. Did Lester ever say he wanted to avoid free agency? Why would he? I think most players of his caliber probably enjoy the free agency process. Imagine what it does for his ego. He has all these teams offering him more money than, in his wildest dreams a few years ago, he would never have imagined. He may not realize it, but never again, except by his family, will he feel this much appreciated. Once he signs that contract, then the measuring of his performance against it will begin.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Dec 6, 2014 20:34:21 GMT -5
jmei. What do you think were the chances of him signing that extension? You know the answer is none.
The issue is whether the offer was a lowball insult...taken in such a way that he literally laughed at it and said eff em..I'll try for free agency. Neither of us know the answer to that question...but I am going to go with the words that he spoke and the following actions of the FO to try and work out a deal as the proof. I wasn't the fly on the wall...but my take on Lester is he is not that kind of guy. And now it is being reported that they are offering 2 extra years and 60 million extra dollars. FFS.
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Post by jmei on Dec 6, 2014 20:50:34 GMT -5
The issue is whether the offer was a lowball insult...taken in such a way that he literally laughed at it and said eff em..I'll try for free agency. Neither of us know the answer to that question...but I am going to go with the words that he spoke and the following actions of the FO to try and work out a deal as the proof. I have presented a number of comparable extensions to show that the initial offer was not so outlandish as to be an insult. It's likely that Lester thought he was better than he showed in 2011-13 and was willing to bet that that was the case. He won that bet, but it doesn't mean that the Red Sox should have capitulated and paid him like a true ace last Spring Training. Back then, he wasn't.
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Post by onbase on Dec 6, 2014 20:58:32 GMT -5
I don't care what anyone says about the art of negotiating....Only really arrogant people would go into a negotiation with the best homegrown pitcher...who has performed above average in his career for this team..and think that the offer was just a starting point. Major League professionals have one chance...and assume a lot of risk...by waiting for the opportunity to cash in as a free agent. People may be right about whether he was sincere or not about the hometown discount...but that is a totally separate issue than the original offer. I am pretty sure Ben and Company now realize that they'll have to pay more because of market influences to sign him. Argument by ridicule. it was reasonable starting point for those who bother to look at his entire body of work at the time. No one did and no one does. Isn't his body of work almost irrelevant? It's good enough - and not that different from Scherzer's by some objective measures - that it's really the supply and demand market value that matters. Given that 4/70 was offered shortly after 6/144 was rejected by a close comp, the offer said "we don't think you're an elite pitcher". But if you want to be lazy and look at fWAR, and ignore his excellent 2014 season, Jon Lester is 8th from 2009-2013 (Scherzer 9th). That initial offer was absurdly low, and at the very least should not have been leaked. I hope that reports of JH traveling to Atlanta can be a difference maker and that Jon returns.
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Post by Smittyw on Dec 6, 2014 21:39:36 GMT -5
I don't think there is any rational way the first offer to Lester can be defended. Everyone on this board knew it was a low-ball and knew that a pitcher like him - even before this season - commands a 9-figure contract. I seem to remember that being the general consensus as well. The belief that he was "not quite an ace" always followed him before 2014, but in today's MLB you don't have to be an ace to be making $20MM a year or $100MM overall. Of course his value went up after the season he had - but it did not go up by $80-100 million.
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Post by soxfan06 on Dec 6, 2014 21:50:05 GMT -5
jmei. What do you think were the chances of him signing that extension? You know the answer is none. The issue is whether the offer was a lowball insult...taken in such a way that he literally laughed at it and said eff em..I'll try for free agency. Neither of us know the answer to that question...but I am going to go with the words that he spoke and the following actions of the FO to try and work out a deal as the proof. I wasn't the fly on the wall...but my take on Lester is he is not that kind of guy. And now it is being reported that they are offering 2 extra years and 60 million extra dollars. FFS. Considering the fact that signing players to contracts almost never go the way of: Team offers contract Player immediately accepts contract That's never how it happens. You keep saying you are going to use Lester's actions as proof to you point, and that only makes you look clueless, considering the fact that Lester continues to consider the Red Sox. If Lester was so insulted and had no interest in the Red Sox he would have never stated that he was interested in returning nor would he even negotiate with the Red Sox in good faith. So keep making up crap, to dump on the Red Sox front office, when in reality the Jon Lester agency was really the issue.
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Post by soxfan06 on Dec 6, 2014 21:53:11 GMT -5
I don't think there is any rational way the first offer to Lester can be defended. Everyone on this board knew it was a low-ball and knew that a pitcher like him - even before this season - commands a 9-figure contract. And the Sox management should know even more than we do what kind of effect low-ball offers usually have on players. They get pissed off. They feel disrespected. It happens all the time. Even Pedro felt that way about what the Sox offered him - and the Sox offer was a decent one (and, as it turned out, a very sensible one). Based on the actions of the Sox management during the past year, I don't think I could rank them among the best managements in baseball. They have made a lot of mistakes. Except for the fact that we are giving you perfectly valid reasons for the offer. Most people think that if the Red Sox offered Lester 6 years, $110M he signs last year. I'll make the case that I'd rather overpay Lester, sign him for 6 years, $140M and have (or had) assets like Cespedes and another draft pick.
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 6, 2014 21:57:31 GMT -5
I don't think there is any rational way the first offer to Lester can be defended. Everyone on this board knew it was a low-ball and knew that a pitcher like him - even before this season - commands a 9-figure contract. And the Sox management should know even more than we do what kind of effect low-ball offers usually have on players. They get pissed off. They feel disrespected. It happens all the time. Even Pedro felt that way about what the Sox offered him - and the Sox offer was a decent one (and, as it turned out, a very sensible one). Based on the actions of the Sox management during the past year, I don't think I could rank them among the best managements in baseball. They have made a lot of mistakes. Except for the fact that we are giving you perfectly valid reasons for the offer. Most people think that if the Red Sox offered Lester 6 years, $110M he signs last year. I'll make the case that I'd rather overpay Lester, sign him for 6 years, $140M and have (or had) assets like Cespedes and another draft pick. I'm pretty sure I said something along those lines in ST, at least the fact that I'd rather overpay for him in the offseason following 2014 than risk it coming off of the 2013 season. Now that assumed they'd still be able to end up with him. I didn't really think they'd trade him at that time since the team was expected to contend. But if they do end up signing him, it worked, and they ended up with another piece in Cespedes or whatever they turn him in to. That being said, at this point, obviously I would have rather them signed him pre 2014, because all the big spenders appear to be in on him and willing to break the bank. But I'll hold any concern/anger until he actually signs somewhere
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Dec 6, 2014 22:41:11 GMT -5
jmei. What do you think were the chances of him signing that extension? You know the answer is none. The issue is whether the offer was a lowball insult...taken in such a way that he literally laughed at it and said eff em..I'll try for free agency. Neither of us know the answer to that question...but I am going to go with the words that he spoke and the following actions of the FO to try and work out a deal as the proof. I wasn't the fly on the wall...but my take on Lester is he is not that kind of guy. And now it is being reported that they are offering 2 extra years and 60 million extra dollars. FFS. Considering the fact that signing players to contracts almost never go the way of: Team offers contract Player immediately accepts contract That's never how it happens. You keep saying you are going to use Lester's actions as proof to you point, and that only makes you look clueless, considering the fact that Lester continues to consider the Red Sox. If Lester was so insulted and had no interest in the Red Sox he would have never stated that he was interested in returning nor would he even negotiate with the Red Sox in good faith. So keep making up crap, to dump on the Red Sox front office, when in reality the Jon Lester agency was really the issue. Easy there...Hopalong. Or I might have to view this as an ad hominem attack.
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Post by dewey1972 on Dec 6, 2014 22:50:26 GMT -5
Argument by ridicule. it was reasonable starting point for those who bother to look at his entire body of work at the time. No one did and no one does. Isn't his body of work almost irrelevant? It's good enough - and not that different from Scherzer's by some objective measures - that it's really the supply and demand market value that matters. Given that 4/70 was offered shortly after 6/144 was rejected by a close comp, the offer said "we don't think you're an elite pitcher". But if you want to be lazy and look at fWAR, and ignore his excellent 2014 season, Jon Lester is 8th from 2009-2013 (Scherzer 9th). That initial offer was absurdly low, and at the very least should not have been leaked. I hope that reports of JH traveling to Atlanta can be a difference maker and that Jon returns. At the beginning of this year, no, Lester was not a close comp to Scherzer. Going back to 2009 is maybe arbitrary on your part, but it paints Lester in a much better light than if you just took the last three years. Also an arbitrary endpoint, but not atypical. In 2009 and 10, Lester did perform at an ace-level, with 11.2 fWAR (or 12.5 RA-9 fWAR) while Scherzer had just 6.8 (or 5.5). Look at the last three years, or two years, and Scherzer was a much better pitcher. Let's just be clear about what Lester had looked like leading up to this spring training. From 2011-2013, he had pitched 610 innings, averaging, per nine innings, 7.74 strikeouts (MLB average was about 7.42), 3.1 walks (versus 3.06), and 0.94 home runs (versus 0.97), for an ERA of 4.03 (versus 3.94). He wasn't even dominant in the second half last year: he lowered his walk rate and cut down on home runs, but he was only striking out 7.6 per nine. Everyone who's arguing that it was an insulting offer, I just don't understand: what do you think would've been an appropriate offer for the pitcher described above?
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 6, 2014 23:06:43 GMT -5
Those deals were done at least a few years back. Inflation happens. The price of solid pitching goes up. Beckett signed his deal around 2010 I think. When you look at Lester, the guy has had one bad year. That's it. He's a lot more consistent than Beckett ever was. He's been more healthy and durable than Beckett ever was. Maybe if this was an extension offer from 2010 Lester would have jumped on it, but it's not 2010 anymore. The sad thing is if Lester can be a slightly above average pitcher by 2020, the $25 million he'd be getting, which everybody is fretting about paying a 37 year old, might look like a bargain by then (for free agent market standards) as crazily ridiculous as it sounds. Kershaw is at $30 million/year now. Let's see what the best pitcher of 2020 is getting. It just gets higher and higher and higher. And so it goes for every tier below them.
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Post by soxfan06 on Dec 7, 2014 5:20:17 GMT -5
Those deals were done at least a few years back. Inflation happens. The price of solid pitching goes up. Beckett signed his deal around 2010 I think. When you look at Lester, the guy has had one bad year. That's it. He's a lot more consistent than Beckett ever was. He's been more healthy and durable than Beckett ever was. Maybe if this was an extension offer from 2010 Lester would have jumped on it, but it's not 2010 anymore. The sad thing is if Lester can be a slightly above average pitcher by 2020, the $25 million he'd be getting, which everybody is fretting about paying a 37 year old, might look like a bargain by then (for free agent market standards) as crazily ridiculous as it sounds. Kershaw is at $30 million/year now. Let's see what the best pitcher of 2020 is getting. It just gets higher and higher and higher. And so it goes for every tier below them. No one actually expected Lester to sign for that amount. Not the Red Sox FO, not the owners, not the fans, not anyone. That's the whole point.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 7, 2014 9:46:52 GMT -5
Those deals were done at least a few years back. Inflation happens. The price of solid pitching goes up. Beckett signed his deal around 2010 I think. When you look at Lester, the guy has had one bad year. That's it. He's a lot more consistent than Beckett ever was. He's been more healthy and durable than Beckett ever was. Maybe if this was an extension offer from 2010 Lester would have jumped on it, but it's not 2010 anymore. The sad thing is if Lester can be a slightly above average pitcher by 2020, the $25 million he'd be getting, which everybody is fretting about paying a 37 year old, might look like a bargain by then (for free agent market standards) as crazily ridiculous as it sounds. Kershaw is at $30 million/year now. Let's see what the best pitcher of 2020 is getting. It just gets higher and higher and higher. And so it goes for every tier below them. No one actually expected Lester to sign for that amount. Not the Red Sox FO, not the owners, not the fans, not anyone. That's the whole point. So why not make a more realistic offer that is still below what Lester would be thrilled to death with? It didn't have to be that low. 5 years $95 - $100 million would have been something for Lester to really consider and possibly accept, which would have possibly saved the Sox money down the road. Perhaps he rejects that, but that would have been a lot more realistic offer, especially considering he hadn't had his best statistical year yet.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 7, 2014 9:50:33 GMT -5
This discussion is going to appear quite amusing when, later this year, Henry Owens makes everyone in Boston forget all about Jon Lester. I'd prefer those two guys be teammates. How knows - in a couple of years, how about a quartet of lefties? Lester, Owens, Rodriguez, and Johnson? Odds are pretty good that this doesn't happen, of course, but it's interesting to see so many lefties. When I was a kid growing up, the Sox actually had 3 very promising young lefties in their rotation, but they managed to lose them all, only squeezing about a few good seasons from Bruce Hurst, who would pitch very well in San Diego, even though he never wanted to leave Boston. Of course, Bob Ojeda would blossom in 1986 with the Mets, and John Tudor would blossom in 1985 with the Cardinals. The latter two lefties were dealt away for Calvin Schiraldi and Wes Gardner, and Mike Easler, respectively.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 7, 2014 9:58:05 GMT -5
I think what you think about what Lester thinks is wrong.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 7, 2014 11:04:24 GMT -5
I don't think there is any rational way the first offer to Lester can be defended. Everyone on this board knew it was a low-ball and knew that a pitcher like him - even before this season - commands a 9-figure contract. And the Sox management should know even more than we do what kind of effect low-ball offers usually have on players. They get pissed off. They feel disrespected. It happens all the time. Even Pedro felt that way about what the Sox offered him - and the Sox offer was a decent one (and, as it turned out, a very sensible one). Based on the actions of the Sox management during the past year, I don't think I could rank them among the best managements in baseball. They have made a lot of mistakes.I thought about this quite a bit as the 2014 season was unraveling and I agree the FO really didn't do much right after winning the WS. The AJP signing, swinging and missing on the evaluation of JBJ's offensive readiness, the Lester offer and the Lackey trade are among the errors committed since the parade. I'm also highly bugged that they let X play a full year in the ML. They could have sent him down for a bit in the middle of the year when he was struggling and saved a year of service time. That's important because he's a Boras client, which means he's gone after six years. I'd rather have his 2020 than his 2014.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 7, 2014 12:41:24 GMT -5
FWIW Sandoval said one of the reasons he came to Boston, even though SF had a similar offer, was because he felt disrespected by The Giants by their initial offer to him in the spring. I've read it often that many (though not all) these guys are influenced by respect, and just as often their sense of "respect" equals dollars. Or as Pedro was quoted as saying, "All I want is one dollar more a year than Schilling." Lester seems like a different cat but now he has significant leverage in the marketplace given the dollars being reported. Or as the players might say, he's got a lot of respect. Players say a lot of things....and believe it or not some of them are actually not true. Agreed. Then again Sandoval did sign here. The point is, if a player is not a max money guy (and we don't know if Lester is or is not) then certain other things matter. Look at Andrew Miller who admitted he turned down $4M more from Houston because the Yankees have spring training in Tampa which gives him 2 more months a year with his family. Also said he felt comfortable in the AL East. Who knows what else had meaning for him there as opposed to signing with the 2017 World Champions.
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Post by onbase on Dec 7, 2014 18:31:36 GMT -5
Isn't his body of work almost irrelevant? It's good enough - and not that different from Scherzer's by some objective measures - that it's really the supply and demand market value that matters. Given that 4/70 was offered shortly after 6/144 was rejected by a close comp, the offer said "we don't think you're an elite pitcher". But if you want to be lazy and look at fWAR, and ignore his excellent 2014 season, Jon Lester is 8th from 2009-2013 (Scherzer 9th). That initial offer was absurdly low, and at the very least should not have been leaked. I hope that reports of JH traveling to Atlanta can be a difference maker and that Jon returns. At the beginning of this year, no, Lester was not a close comp to Scherzer. Going back to 2009 is maybe arbitrary on your part, but it paints Lester in a much better light than if you just took the last three years. Also an arbitrary endpoint, but not atypical. In 2009 and 10, Lester did perform at an ace-level, with 11.2 fWAR (or 12.5 RA-9 fWAR) while Scherzer had just 6.8 (or 5.5). Look at the last three years, or two years, and Scherzer was a much better pitcher. Let's just be clear about what Lester had looked like leading up to this spring training. From 2011-2013, he had pitched 610 innings, averaging, per nine innings, 7.74 strikeouts (MLB average was about 7.42), 3.1 walks (versus 3.06), and 0.94 home runs (versus 0.97), for an ERA of 4.03 (versus 3.94). He wasn't even dominant in the second half last year: he lowered his walk rate and cut down on home runs, but he was only striking out 7.6 per nine. Everyone who's arguing that it was an insulting offer, I just don't understand: what do you think would've been an appropriate offer for the pitcher described above? OK, looking at the last 3 years, same BABIP, same walk rate, slightly better HR/FB rate for Max, slightly better GB rate for Jon, ERA win by .15 for Max. Pretty close. If reports that the Sox will be all in for Scherzer if they lose Lester are true, and they spend significantly more for the AL Central guy, I'm not going to be a happy camper. Appropriate opening offer - 5/$100M with negotiable incentive options.
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Post by moonstone2 on Dec 8, 2014 8:01:44 GMT -5
Argument by ridicule. it was reasonable starting point for those who bother to look at his entire body of work at the time. No one did and no one does. Isn't his body of work almost irrelevant? It's good enough - and not that different from Scherzer's by some objective measures - that it's really the supply and demand market value that matters. Given that 4/70 was offered shortly after 6/144 was rejected by a close comp, the offer said "we don't think you're an elite pitcher". But if you want to be lazy and look at fWAR, and ignore his excellent 2014 season, Jon Lester is 8th from 2009-2013 (Scherzer 9th). That initial offer was absurdly low, and at the very least should not have been leaked. I hope that reports of JH traveling to Atlanta can be a difference maker and that Jon returns. I don't get it. Evidence was presented that the offer was not absurdly low yet all you guys have is argument by ridicule. At the time Schezer had a better track record than Lester who basically had had one good half season over four years. Still the contract Schezer was offered was high.
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