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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Dec 28, 2014 17:53:25 GMT -5
Detroit may well have sold Porcello high and they probably had a real good idea of his signability after next year. He's testing free agency almost for sure. I love that he might be worth a QO though. I do buy the infield defense issue but Porcello is to me a guy who absolutely needs a top defense behind him to be even a #2 but the trade was good for us overall. He's a #3 at best for us probably.
Detroit wants to win now and they needed a bat like Cespedes to win now. Cespedes is more of a sure thing than Porcello IMO. He has not benefited from playing so much in Oakland. I think his numbers clearly go up. It's no surprise to me that he batted in front of Napoli. I think he is under rated in some ways. He just needs a good fit and Detroit is an excellent fit for him. He is a probable 25 HR, .275-.280 BA guy in Detroit next year and in today's world that is a very good bat even with his walk rate. And yes, I do care about more than HR and BA so spare me the insults. The guy did knock in 100 runs for 2 teams which were very bad hitting teams without him. He was the straw that stirred the drink so to speak and I'm a straw advocate. Yes, I do believe in lineup intimidation, batting lineup protection and the impact of psychological considerations. Pressure does strange things to people. It is real and it may be difficult to quantify but it does have impact in games.
For example, when Papi comes up in a clutch situation, the world seems to stop for all involved. He almost wills a good pitch to hit. Cespedes has some of that mojo.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Dec 28, 2014 17:55:46 GMT -5
ive been away for a while but I really like this trade and the thought of Porcello in Boston. Curious if they try to lock him up this offseason or let him put another year on his resume. Would a 5 year 85 million offer be fair now? Way too low. 6/110 to 120 more likely this offseason, much more next year if he stays healthy. He's only 26. Porcello is young and I agree he is worth a lot but I profile him at maxing out at $110 probably. He will need to have another year like the last one to have any chance to top that to me. He needs to consistently put up good numbers. Now would be a good time.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,980
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Post by jimoh on Dec 28, 2014 18:24:12 GMT -5
... For example, when Papi comes up in a clutch situation, the world seems to stop for all involved. He almost wills a good pitch to hit. Cespedes has some of that mojo. So good hitting is a Jedi mind trick? And you think there are similarities between the way Ortiz hits (obp the last 12 years .387) and the way Cespedes hits? You don't think Ortiz' not swinging at bad pitches to hit is why he gets good pitches to hit?
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 28, 2014 19:02:10 GMT -5
So good hitting is a Jedi mind trick? And you think there are similarities between the way Ortiz hits (obp the last 12 years .387) and the way Cespedes hits? You don't think Ortiz' not swinging at bad pitches to hit is why he gets good pitches to hit? Oh come on, everyone knows that the only reason Ortiz walks so much is that he never had a dangerous hitter like Cespedes providing him with lineup protection.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Dec 28, 2014 20:01:26 GMT -5
To some people, who in my opinion are completely literal with statistics being almost the only considerations worthy of thought, lineup protection is worthless...right? Goetze pretty much thinks that if I remember correctly. The data indicates lineup protection is essentially a myth correct? I think it's over rated but it is still a consideration. I'm not betting the team on it but it's still a factor.
And jimoh, good hitting is not a Jedi mind trick but if you don't think Ortiz has some intimidation factor going for him, perhaps you missed the 2013 playoffs. That happened because he is a great hitter and because he had exceptional confidence in a big pressure situation, and the other team's pitchers knew it. He clearly got into their heads and has been doing it for years. It's part of his game.
A reasonable GM with a solid reputation in Detroit just traded a valuable young pitcher who might actually net a first round pick after next year for a guy who most people around here have been dumping on from day one, who will definitely not net a pick for us beyond the one we already got in the Lester trade. We may end up getting 2 excellent picks from the original Lester trade. I'm glad Lester walked at the cost he ended up with. Solid decision to get some value from him.
And Cespedes may not be perfect but we just signed his clone for about $72 mil we hated him so bad. We will be lucky if Castillo hits as well but the defense is better. We just created a team where everyone on it would be very happy with Cespedes's power numbers. And team management would be also because they obviously wanted more pop in this lineup or they wouldn't have made the decisions they have made recently.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 29, 2014 0:43:32 GMT -5
Lavarnway, you're either going to have to accept that certain conjectures are testable, or simply live with the idea that intuition is all you need. Because when it comes to lineup protection the testing has been done and the results are in: Your eyes are fooling you but... if you use them long enough on a given hitter, they'll come into focus. Speaking of the Hardball Times, here's an excellent look at the best predictors of a player's walk rate, and that includes one variable that's very counter-intuitive.
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Post by Don Caballero on Dec 29, 2014 1:09:06 GMT -5
And Cespedes may not be perfect but we just signed his clone for about $72 mil we hated him so bad. Is this a joke I missed? Because the only things Castillo has in common with Cespedes are being cuban and an OF (even that is stretching, because one is a CF while the other is a LF).
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 29, 2014 3:52:32 GMT -5
And Cespedes may not be perfect but we just signed his clone for about $72 mil we hated him so bad. Is this a joke I missed? Because the only things Castillo has in common with Cespedes are being cuban and an OF (even that is stretching, because one is a CF while the other is a LF). Bad comp. aside, that statement assumes Cespedes would have extended for 5/$61.5 to be equivalent decisions if they were identical twins. Anyone see that as likely ?
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