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Handicapping the 2015 Red Sox
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 11, 2014 19:40:21 GMT -5
In essence, the Red Sox, at near optimistic best, have five #3 starters. Masterson, Buchholz, Kelly, and Miley pitched like #4/#5 or even like minor leaguers last year. Porcello seems to have the arrow pointing upward.
It seems obvious to me that the Sox won't go crazy for Shields (they shouldn't) and won't even dream of Scherzer.
They'll probably see where they are in July - I would assume that the kids will get a chance to pitch because Buchholz will get hurt, etc. If they're in it on 7/31 I can see them going after Johnny Cueto in a deal assuming the Reds are in trouble. Of course Hamels might still be available by then.
I think ultimately the Sox will sacrifice one of Owens or Rodriguez, particularly if they take the step up to the majors and look good, for an ace like Cueto.
I think Ben, instead of making that determination now, will simply see how the season plays out.
He's doing exactly what he said. He said they don't need an ace. I totally disagree with that, but that's what he's doing. I'm glad he hasn't panicked an overpaid in a trade - yet.
Looking at where things stand now, I think the Sox are probably a 77 to 85 win team. Would have liked them even more if the rotation had turned out to be Lester, Porcello, Miley, Buchholz, and Kelly. We'll see if somebody like Cueto enters that equation in July.
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Post by jmei on Dec 11, 2014 21:48:24 GMT -5
In essence, the Red Sox, at near optimistic best, have five #3 starters. Masterson, Buchholz, Kelly, and Miley pitched like #4/#5 or even like minor leaguers last year. Porcello seems to have the arrow pointing upward. It seems obvious to me that the Sox won't go crazy for Shields (they shouldn't) and won't even dream of Scherzer. They'll probably see where they are in July - I would assume that the kids will get a chance to pitch because Buchholz will get hurt, etc. If they're in it on 7/31 I can see them going after Johnny Cueto in a deal assuming the Reds are in trouble. Of course Hamels might still be available by then. I think ultimately the Sox will sacrifice one of Owens or Rodriguez, particularly if they take the step up to the majors and look good, for an ace like Cueto. I think Ben, instead of making that determination now, will simply see how the season plays out. He's doing exactly what he said. He said they don't need an ace. I totally disagree with that, but that's what he's doing. I'm glad he hasn't panicked an overpaid in a trade - yet. Looking at where things stand now, I think the Sox are probably a 77 to 85 win team. Would have liked them even more if the rotation had turned out to be Lester, Porcello, Miley, Buchholz, and Kelly. We'll see if somebody like Cueto enters that equation in July. If we really are being optimistic, I'll note that four of their current five starters have had number-two-or-better-type seasons in the last few years (Porcello in 2013-14, Buchholz in 2013, Miley in 2012, Masterson in 2013). You could say their median projections are all mid-rotation guys, but even then, I'd disagree and argue that Porcello is a solid number two. I think you're being pessimistic. I think they have one of the top five or so offenses in the league (probably top three), above-average fielding, slightly below-average starting pitching, and an averagish bullpen as things stand. That's something like 87 wins and likely playoff contention, with the possibility of more if they add another starting pitcher (which I'd guess is more likely than not). I'm not sure if it's absolutely up to date on the latest transactions, but I'll note that Steamer agrees (and I made sure to write the above before I checked so I wouldn't be biased). They project the Red Sox for 87 wins as rosters currently stand, which is fifth-best projection in the league, second-best projection in the AL, and best projection in the AL East (three games ahead of the Jays, four games ahead of the Rays). Boston is projected to have the best offense in the league with below-average run prevention (21st in the league). That sounds about right to me.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 11, 2014 22:31:02 GMT -5
Assuming we keep Mookie and Bogaerts, our hitting should be great. Preseason Boston, Toronto, Detroit, and LA seem like the juggernauts.
Our pitching doesn't look too hot right now, but our farm gives us a ton of depth, which will definitely come in clutch for us. Teams like LA or Detroit can't rely on their depth/farms as much as we can if an injury occurs. We have a ton of outfield options, lots of players that can play multiple positions, and many pitching specs to choose from who should be ready for a big league trial at some point this season. If we make the playoffs we could definitely take advantage of a 40 man roster.
I think depth is what has the potential to separate our team from others. 87 win projection sounds right if we add a #2 pitcher.
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Post by redsoxfan1994 on Dec 11, 2014 22:50:07 GMT -5
I don't want to project right now...because obviously we have this entire offseason ahead of us...but I think we're done making moves...with the exception of selling off Craig and Nava for some random minor leaguer or bullpen arm...also adding a backup catcher...
so purely based on gut...I'd put us at 80-88 wins...potent offense, good defense, laughable yet passable rotation could be succesful in this league...especially considering that Porcello and Masterson are pitching for contracts
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 12, 2014 0:38:20 GMT -5
In essence, the Red Sox, at near optimistic best, have five #3 starters. Masterson, Buchholz, Kelly, and Miley pitched like #4/#5 or even like minor leaguers last year. Porcello seems to have the arrow pointing upward. It seems obvious to me that the Sox won't go crazy for Shields (they shouldn't) and won't even dream of Scherzer. They'll probably see where they are in July - I would assume that the kids will get a chance to pitch because Buchholz will get hurt, etc. If they're in it on 7/31 I can see them going after Johnny Cueto in a deal assuming the Reds are in trouble. Of course Hamels might still be available by then. I think ultimately the Sox will sacrifice one of Owens or Rodriguez, particularly if they take the step up to the majors and look good, for an ace like Cueto. I think Ben, instead of making that determination now, will simply see how the season plays out. He's doing exactly what he said. He said they don't need an ace. I totally disagree with that, but that's what he's doing. I'm glad he hasn't panicked an overpaid in a trade - yet. Looking at where things stand now, I think the Sox are probably a 77 to 85 win team. Would have liked them even more if the rotation had turned out to be Lester, Porcello, Miley, Buchholz, and Kelly. We'll see if somebody like Cueto enters that equation in July. If we really are being optimistic, I'll note that four of their current five starters have had number-two-or-better-type seasons in the last few years (Porcello in 2013-14, Buchholz in 2013, Miley in 2012, Masterson in 2013). You could say their median projections are all mid-rotation guys, but even then, I'd disagree and argue that Porcello is a solid number two. I think you're being pessimistic. I think they have one of the top five or so offenses in the league (probably top three), above-average fielding, slightly below-average starting pitching, and an averagish bullpen as things stand. That's something like 87 wins and likely playoff contention, with the possibility of more if they add another starting pitcher (which I'd guess is more likely than not). I'm not sure if it's absolutely up to date on the latest transactions, but I'll note that Steamer agrees (and I made sure to write the above before I checked so I wouldn't be biased). They project the Red Sox for 87 wins as rosters currently stand, which is fifth-best projection in the league, second-best projection in the AL, and best projection in the AL East (three games ahead of the Jays, four games ahead of the Rays). Boston is projected to have the best offense in the league with below-average run prevention (21st in the league). That sounds about right to me. There are some question marks, though. I have no idea how healthy Masterson is. I don't know if he's going to be terrible, mediocre, or good like he was for a couple of seasons in Cleveland. We don't know which Masterson we're getting. The good news is if he's lousy, they have other young starters and Masterson has had bullpen experience before. Wade Miley could be a good sleeper acquisition, and I really do like the Porcello acquisition. Didn't realize he was so young. He's really coming into his own. I think though with the composition of the staff SS becomes a very important defensive position and that kind of puts the spotlight on Bogaerts, whose defense is questionable. I hope there's a lot of ground balls to 2b in 2015. His 24 ABs were impressive, but I don't know what to expect out of Rusney Castillo. He could be a flop or he could be a young Victorino. Don't know how good he is in CF. Have heard conflicting reports. And I don't know what to make out of the current Victorino. Where does he fit in? If he plays RF, does Betts start out in AAA? Betts is by far the Sox best leadoff option. Perhaps Castillo struggles and Betts winds up in CF with Vic in RF? Can Hanley handle LF adequately? I know he's athletic, but can he at least be better than Manny Ramirez defensively? I think the Sox might need Craig to start the season because Napoli's facial surgery could perhaps create some discomfort for him. I don't know of any other major leaguers who had that type of surgery. And of course they need Pedroia to stay healthy and hope that Sandoval doesn't continue to decline offensively. Papi is Papi, although he declined last season, too, in his own way. The catching is interesting. I do believe Vazquez will hit eventually, but I think Swihart at some point will overtake him. They'll get a stop gap backup catcher meanwhile. I do have concerns about the pen. I love Koji but I think he needs more help. I don't know if Mujica will be the guy to help him. By that I mean, if the Sox are playing in a lot of close games as I suspect they will I can see Koji and Tazawa getting worn down. They need another strong option or two to help out. Maybe Workman? And I'd like to see another strong left to pair with Layne, who was great last year, but I don't know if he'll continue something close to that. I guess it all comes down to which seasons are the starters going to put up? Porcello's 2014, Miley's 2012, Masterson's 2013? Buchholz's 2010 (or 13)? Does Kelly improve? If the they have season's close to that, the Sox look like a juggernaut. If they pitch mostly like last season the Sox will be somewhere near .500. If they're playing .550ish baseball, I think they'll go for it if Cueto is available. I don't see Zimmerman being dealt and dealing with Philly for Hamels is probably more trouble than it's worth.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 12, 2014 6:38:28 GMT -5
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 12, 2014 9:22:31 GMT -5
In essence, the Red Sox, at near optimistic best, have five #3 starters. Masterson, Buchholz, Kelly, and Miley pitched like #4/#5 or even like minor leaguers last year. Porcello seems to have the arrow pointing upward. It seems obvious to me that the Sox won't go crazy for Shields (they shouldn't) and won't even dream of Scherzer. They'll probably see where they are in July - I would assume that the kids will get a chance to pitch because Buchholz will get hurt, etc. If they're in it on 7/31 I can see them going after Johnny Cueto in a deal assuming the Reds are in trouble. Of course Hamels might still be available by then. I think ultimately the Sox will sacrifice one of Owens or Rodriguez, particularly if they take the step up to the majors and look good, for an ace like Cueto. I think Ben, instead of making that determination now, will simply see how the season plays out. He's doing exactly what he said. He said they don't need an ace. I totally disagree with that, but that's what he's doing. I'm glad he hasn't panicked an overpaid in a trade - yet. Looking at where things stand now, I think the Sox are probably a 77 to 85 win team. Would have liked them even more if the rotation had turned out to be Lester, Porcello, Miley, Buchholz, and Kelly. We'll see if somebody like Cueto enters that equation in July. If we really are being optimistic, I'll note that four of their current five starters have had number-two-or-better-type seasons in the last few years (Porcello in 2013-14, Buchholz in 2013, Miley in 2012, Masterson in 2013). You could say their median projections are all mid-rotation guys, but even then, I'd disagree and argue that Porcello is a solid number two. I think you're being pessimistic. I think they have one of the top five or so offenses in the league (probably top three), above-average fielding, slightly below-average starting pitching, and an averagish bullpen as things stand. That's something like 87 wins and likely playoff contention, with the possibility of more if they add another starting pitcher (which I'd guess is more likely than not). I'm not sure if it's absolutely up to date on the latest transactions, but I'll note that Steamer agrees (and I made sure to write the above before I checked so I wouldn't be biased). They project the Red Sox for 87 wins as rosters currently stand, which is fifth-best projection in the league, second-best projection in the AL, and best projection in the AL East (three games ahead of the Jays, four games ahead of the Rays). Boston is projected to have the best offense in the league with below-average run prevention (21st in the league). That sounds about right to me. I'm half-way b/t you two while noting the Sox are not a finished product. I am ecstatic at the rapidity with which the Sox responded to Lester's departure and know that the job is not done. Somehow they will need additional pieces in the pen and probably a top-flight starter as suggested. But, we have not given up any perceived top guys so far other than Cespedes who does not fit our mold and for whom we have replacements.. I truly hope that we do not. I have many times expressed a desire for patience. Let the smoke clear and take a clinical, dispassionate view.
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Post by tjb21 on Dec 12, 2014 9:30:19 GMT -5
I'll go 85-89 wins, prior to any more major moves.
I like what they've done, the offense should be terrific to watch.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Dec 12, 2014 9:57:34 GMT -5
So far, this seems to have the potential to be a really, really fun team to follow. Deep enough starting rotation to be in every game and an offense to run up some scores ... plus some fun, charismatic veterans like Papi and Sandoval, returning son in Hanley, Mookie and Bogaerts for the youth, the intrigue of seeing what Castillo will do ...
I'll wait until later on the offseason to try to handicap how good they're going to be, but it sure looks like some entertaining and interesting baseball next year.
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Post by dmaineah on Dec 12, 2014 10:21:26 GMT -5
The roster as currently constructed should be in contention come the trading deadline
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Post by kmann on Dec 17, 2014 15:48:24 GMT -5
Per online sportsbook Bovada, as of today the Sox are 9-1 favorites to win the 2015 World Series, only behind the Dodgers at 15/2. I am happy with the way this offseason is going thus far, but isn't that a bit optimistic?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 17, 2014 15:57:10 GMT -5
Per online sportsbook Bovada, as of today the Sox are 9-1 favorites to win the 2015 World Series, only behind the Dodgers at 15/2. I am happy with the way this offseason is going thus far, but isn't that a bit optimistic? I hate being that highly looked upon. I think that whoever signs Scherzer could knock us down a peg anyway, and that once we get closer to the season the hype around our acquisitions will have worn off. People will worry about our rotation since most of those lists are comprised by looking at a list of names and ranking them that way. Personally I like our chances to be a playoff team, and then anything goes from there.
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Post by 111soxfan111 on Dec 17, 2014 15:57:11 GMT -5
A little optimistic maybe but the line up is stacked, they have pretty good positional flexibility, the defense should be very good and they've got great depth. Look at the projected AAA roster ... it's stacked. Most importantly they have money and seem willing to go over the LT threshold for one year. They've got room to make another big move between now and the trade deadline. I have to assume that is baked into those odds.
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 17, 2014 16:19:37 GMT -5
Per online sportsbook Bovada, as of today the Sox are 9-1 favorites to win the 2015 World Series, only behind the Dodgers at 15/2. I am happy with the way this offseason is going thus far, but isn't that a bit optimistic? Well, sportsbooks need to account not only for the actual probability of an event but also for how many people are going to bet on something no matter what the odds are. If the Red Sox didn't have any fans it might well be 11-1 or something.
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Post by jmei on Dec 17, 2014 16:48:15 GMT -5
I think it's a little high, but what other AL teams would you have above the Red Sox at this point? Maybe the Orioles and the Tigers? The Royals seem like a one-year-wonder, the Angels and As have gotten worse, and I'm not sure the Mariners or the Blue Jays have improved enough.
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 17, 2014 17:08:38 GMT -5
The Sox have filled their black hole at 3B from last year, upgraded the back end of their rotation, upgraded their OF, with the only major loss of Lester. The latter is obviously a big thing, and they'd prob be the WS favorites if he returned and they still made all the other additions.
It's also an assumption that they truly shouldn't have been as bad as the final results looked last year, much like the Valentine season.
It is funny though when non Sox followers start laughing when they see these odds, but as Jmei mentioned, who else really has taken a step forwards? Detroit, barring the unexpected, lost their top starter. Kansas City, who seemed to play above their true level last year is also going to lose their top starter. Seattle's pitching could be really good, but their offense is still a question, especially with 81 games in that park. Tampa seems to be selling out, the Yankees could very likely be a mess, even if they sign Scherzer. Baltimore has lost offense and hasn't improved. Oakland has sold off major pieces
I mean maybe Toronto out of the east aside from Boston, then the Angels? Their offense seems very top heavy, with a large portion relying on a 34 year old Pujols and a 33 year old Hamilton. If their offense produces again, and their 31/34 year old top of the rotation pitchers stay healthy, they could be the biggest challenge. But they don't appear to have much depth, which can always bite a team in the ass pretty quickly
Edit: I did forget the White Sox, who could be the real "wild card" player in the AL race
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 17, 2014 17:11:24 GMT -5
The white Sox look pretty good. The top half of the lineup is legit as is the rotation and bullpen.
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Post by jmei on Dec 17, 2014 17:35:31 GMT -5
The white Sox look pretty good. The top half of the lineup is legit as is the rotation and bullpen. They still have huge holes in their lineup, though-- their starters at catcher (Tyler Flowers), 2B (Carlos Sanchez), 3B (Conor Gillaspie), and RF (Avisail Garcia) all project to be well below-average, as would their fifth starter and SP depth (Hector Noesi/John Danks/Erik Johnson). It's easy to forget that the 6-9 guys matter almost as much as the 1-5 guys, and in that respect, the White Sox are the opposite of a team like the Red Sox. They look good if you only look at the marquee names, but they lack the secondary guys and depth to project to be a real contender, at least unless they make more moves or some of the above names have better-than-expected seasons.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 18, 2014 1:16:14 GMT -5
I think they have a wide range at this point. I think we need one more good starter, with Masterson and Buchholz in the rotation.
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Post by jmei on Jan 29, 2015 11:24:41 GMT -5
PECOTA projections are out: www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/The Red Sox are projected to finish with 86 wins, tied for first place in the AL East (with the Rays), third best in the AL (Angels at 90 and Mariners at 87), and sixth best in the majors (Dodgers at a whopping 97, Nats at 91, Cards at 89). ADD: individual projections are here: www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php?tm=BOSSurprises include Vazquez being projected to be a .244/.310/.329, 0.4 WARP player, Castillo being projected to be a .272/.337/.430, 3.5 WARP player, and most noticeably, the starting pitching being projected to be a dumpster fire.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 7, 2015 22:06:50 GMT -5
PECOTA projections are out: www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/The Red Sox are projected to finish with 86 wins, tied for first place in the AL East (with the Rays), third best in the AL (Angels at 90 and Mariners at 87), and sixth best in the majors (Dodgers at a whopping 97, Nats at 91, Cards at 89). ADD: individual projections are here: www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php?tm=BOSSurprises include Vazquez being projected to be a .244/.310/.329, 0.4 WARP player, Castillo being projected to be a .272/.337/.430, 3.5 WARP player, and most noticeably, the starting pitching being projected to be a dumpster fire. That's 0.4 WARP for Vazquez essentially without defense, as their FRAA for catchers includes only balls in play, and excludes not just pitch-framing but throwing. DRS had him at 1.0 WAR / 120 G for throwing and pitch-blocking. The revised pitch-framing metrics have him at 3.5.
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Post by Guidas on Feb 8, 2015 21:06:59 GMT -5
PECOTA projections are out: www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/The Red Sox are projected to finish with 86 wins, tied for first place in the AL East (with the Rays), third best in the AL (Angels at 90 and Mariners at 87), and sixth best in the majors (Dodgers at a whopping 97, Nats at 91, Cards at 89). ADD: individual projections are here: www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php?tm=BOSSurprises include Vazquez being projected to be a .244/.310/.329, 0.4 WARP player, Castillo being projected to be a .272/.337/.430, 3.5 WARP player, and most noticeably, the starting pitching being projected to be a dumpster fire.This is really a surprise?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 9, 2015 0:31:35 GMT -5
**snicker** They've got Miley at 0 WARP, and Buchholz at 1.2, anyone care to take the over/under on that one?... I thought not.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 9, 2015 8:55:01 GMT -5
**snicker** They've got Miley at 0 WARP, and Buchholz at 1.2, anyone care to take the over/under on that one?... I thought not. guidas might take the under.
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Post by Guidas on Feb 9, 2015 10:20:28 GMT -5
I am bullish on Buchholz. Not so much on Miley or Kelly, or Masterson vs. any lefty. I think ZiPS will be closer to reality, with my own personal caveat on Buchholz (I think he's a 3.5ish zWAR pitcher this year). As constructed I believe this is still an 84 win team at best. The one hope to get to 88-90 wins is to have Sabathia, Tanaka and Pineda all implode early in April on that weekend where they are set to face the Sox. Then again, we'd probably have Masterson facing an all lefty/switch line-up that same weekend, so best we could do is 2 out of 3 - but with those three down it will be easier to get 2/3 vs MFYs for first half of the year. That and have Stroman come up lame at the end of the month before Sox play Toronto. That should do it, yeah. But really, the offense looks great. The pitching is planned mediocrity and a bunch of crossed fingers - in football they call this "a punt." They have to prove it otherwise through performance.
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