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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 2, 2012 0:22:00 GMT -5
Speaking of the 40-man, Webster's a guy who's certain to have a spot on it... When he was first traded to the Sox, there were rumours that he'd been a shorstop in high school. That was tantalizing in that it meant there might not be much wear and tear on the arm. That led me to this piece, thanks to a link found on the Bleacher Report. It was pure luck that he happened to close out a game - he was used for late-inning mop-up work by his high school coach - while a Dodger scout was in attendance: He’d walk over from shortstop, reach back, and fire whatever he could muster toward the plate.
He was, of course, a shortstop, not a pitcher.
“I was never really a go-to pitcher,” Webster now says. “I would just go out there and throw. I never really had any coaching at it.”
Except in that late-season game, two eyes widened in the stands as Webster hurled his fastball-curveball combo toward the plate. One after another, 91- to 92-mph fastballs flung from a fresh arm that hadn’t been overburdened by years of heavy use. His progress has been quite rapid, and everyone who's watched him talks MLB level skills. He's advanced quickly for someone who started from square one, but he's still learning as he made clear in my favorite quote from the story: “I’m a totally different pitcher than when I first got in,” he said. “I’m a more mature pitcher. I’m starting to learn what to do with the batters. The more I throw, the more I see stuff.” Learning what to do with the batters... as in dispose of them.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 2, 2012 15:08:11 GMT -5
This had more to do with Webster than anything 40-man related, so here's a new Allen Webster thread.
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Post by jmei on Nov 2, 2012 15:32:28 GMT -5
If Webster improves his fastball command even a little, he'll have two plus pitches (the other being his changeup) with an average slider. He's only 22 and on the cusp of AAA. I see Webster as the best starting pitcher prospect in the system since Clay Buchholz (Kelly, Ranaudo, and Barnes never had/have yet to have success at AA, I had Masterson as a reliever, Bowden and Doubront don't have his ceiling). Agree or disagree?
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 2, 2012 17:01:34 GMT -5
Maybe the one with lowest downside, but Kelly and Barnes had/have upsides as consistent All-Star borderline ace/very good #2's. Webster seems less likely to bust (I'm going off stats and reports here, never actually seen him pitch), but I don't know that he's got the same upside. On the other hand, since he didn't pitch much in high school, he doesn't have the mileage in his arm. So perhaps his development arc is different.
I can't put him ahead of Barnes. Not sure if I'd have him above Kelly when he was in the system - I'd have Webster, De La Rosa, and 2010 Kelly as my 4-5-6 in some order, though.
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Post by kingstephanos on Nov 2, 2012 19:31:56 GMT -5
"but Kelly and Barnes had/have upsides as consistent All-Star borderline ace/very good #2's. Webster seems less likely to bust (I'm going off stats and reports here, never actually seen him pitch), but I don't know that he's got the same upside."
Not to be excessively contrarian, but where have Kelly and/or Barnes been tagged as borderline ace level starters? Besides the Boston blogs, I haven't read either being the case - even when speaking about their loftiest of ceilings.
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Post by jmei on Nov 2, 2012 19:38:48 GMT -5
Barnes is the one which might make me pause, but I have Webster clearly above Kelly. I was never very impressed by Kelly's raw stuff-- he really got by on having superior command and pitcheability. Barnes is more polished than Webster is, but I think Webster has better stuff-- 95-96 with movement is rare, and his changeup rates very well.
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Post by borisman on Nov 6, 2012 16:38:41 GMT -5
I've yet to see Webster pitch but it sounds like he's a no-brainer to make it to the bigs with a top tier team. Hopefully he'll be with the PawSox this year & I'll get a better looksee. But Barnes is the second coming of Matt Garza. We could use one of those, no? I'll eat my 7 year old (which will be 10 by then) propet shoe if the kid doesn't excel (injuries excluded). I'm glad the A's picked Sonny Gray and not Barnes. I haven't been this sure on a prospect since Buchholz (he let me down for a little while but he'll be back).
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Mar 3, 2013 9:54:55 GMT -5
Rubby's getting a lot of discussion. Sounds like the "other" guy in the big trade might be a keeper too. You have to love a young RHP with high 90's stuff and no history of arm trouble. Needs refinement. But, in his two outings so far he's logged these two lines.
IP H R ER BB K 3 - 2 - 0 - 0 - 1 - 2 vs Minny 2 - 2 - 1 - 1 - 0 - 4 VS Toronto
Will he start the year at Pawtucket?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 3, 2013 10:08:27 GMT -5
Will he start the year at Pawtucket? Yes, practically for certain. He's got almost 200 innings in Double-A.
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Post by stevedillard on Mar 3, 2013 10:16:28 GMT -5
As exciting as the reports on his stuff, I go back and look at his stats, and they do not live up to his scouting profile. Has his stuff gotten better (reports of high 90s), or are there other explanations for his average results?
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Post by wskeleton76 on Mar 3, 2013 10:18:04 GMT -5
As exciting as the reports on his stuff, I go back and look at his stats, and they do not live up to his scouting profile. Has his stuff gotten better (reports of high 90s), or are there other explanations for his average results? Inconsistency.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 3, 2013 10:23:58 GMT -5
Specifically, inconsistency with his command.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Mar 3, 2013 11:03:51 GMT -5
As exciting as the reports on his stuff, I go back and look at his stats, and they do not live up to his scouting profile. Has his stuff gotten better (reports of high 90s), or are there other explanations for his average results? As all of the experts constantly remind us. It's not always wise to scout the box score. Especially, one who is a project. The player he's most often compared to is Derek Lowe. DLowe didn't exactly have a smooth trip thru the minors. Check his minor league stats out. www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=lowe--001der
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Post by gatortough on Mar 3, 2013 12:32:51 GMT -5
As exciting as the reports on his stuff, I go back and look at his stats, and they do not live up to his scouting profile. Has his stuff gotten better (reports of high 90s), or are there other explanations for his average results? As all of the experts constantly remind us. It's not always wise to scout the box score. Especially, one who is a project. The player he's most often compared to is Derek Lowe. DLowe didn't exactly have a smooth trip thru the minors. Check his minor league stats out. www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=lowe--001derThis. But if you want to go the route of looking at his stats, the only problem that jumps out at me is his bb/9. Walking over 4 batters/9 won't lead to sustained success at the ML level. But that is in line with his scouting report; he needs to harness his command. His stuff is fantastic, striking out about a batter per inning. Not sure what stats you think don't line up.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 3, 2013 13:14:05 GMT -5
A few things that strike me. I don't think that Lowe is that good a comp because of the additional pitches that Webster has. I honestly don't remember Lowe flashing much but the sinker and an occasional slider. Others can correct me here. Webster has a truly outstanding changeup as well as a very good slider and a curve that I have not seen him throw. I do remember Lowe getting the sinker up to 95 mph on rare occasions. Webster, at least right now, can have stretches where he's consistently at 94-95 with that pitch. It's unusual to be able to put that kind of action on a pitch thrown that hard, the ball most often arriving at the plate before the sink sets in. So that's different as well.
I'm eager to see what he's like with a good defense behind him. With Iglesias and Holt as the candidates for the middle infield in Pawtucket, he should have some support behind him to snag those grounders. But that only deals with the smaller part of the issue. Word is that he sometimes gets derailed when big innings get posted against him after a solid start. The walks are the biggest part of that problem and controlling that sinker will probably be the real battle there.
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Post by stevedillard on Mar 3, 2013 13:15:34 GMT -5
Well, 212 IPs in AA, 1.5 WIP, 4.20 ERA. They struck me as a Daniel Bard college type issue where a guy at 95 plus is not dominating, and whether there are makeup issues.
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Post by gatortough on Mar 3, 2013 13:27:03 GMT -5
Well, 212 IPs in AA, 1.5 WIP, 4.20 ERA. They struck me as a Daniel Bard college type issue where a guy at 95 plus is not dominating, and whether there are makeup issues. I hear what you're saying, but he was far better in his first full AA season. And the high WHIP is directly tied to his walk totals. If he was at bb/9 were closer to 2 than 4 than his whip would be in the more palatable 1.25-1.3 range. There's a ripple effect with the walks that takes a toll on his other stats, especially his era. Lastly, it's not an excuse, but it is fair to take into account that he's relatively new to pitching. The command to this point bears watching, but I won't be concerned until his development stagnates, he's made huge strides each year, so there's no reason to think he won't continue.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 3, 2013 13:27:32 GMT -5
Well, 212 IPs in AA, 1.5 WIP, 4.20 ERA. They struck me as a Daniel Bard college type issue where a guy at 95 plus is not dominating, and whether there are makeup issues. From everything I've read, he's a very hard worker and just a great kid. I'd attribute it to getting all that "stuff" under control. Keep in mind he's only five years into this pitching thing yet he reached AAA at 22. The comments from his pitching coaches and managers point to such overwhelming stuff that it probably seemed foolish not to keep pushing him forward. One of those staff people was quoted, just last year I believe, as saying that it had jelled for him, that he had was well on his way to putting it all together. The Sox will need a little patience with this guy. I think the team will be well-rewarded for that.
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Post by bluechip on Mar 3, 2013 21:33:02 GMT -5
Well, 212 IPs in AA, 1.5 WIP, 4.20 ERA. They struck me as a Daniel Bard college type issue where a guy at 95 plus is not dominating, and whether there are makeup issues. Well the only time he has struggled since 2008 was his first stint in AA. Even during that first stint in 2011 he had a decent peripheral stats (a 4.05 FIP). He was much better in 2012.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 4, 2013 8:38:04 GMT -5
With a guy like Webster, good athlete, hard worker, low experience, I'm more confident that he's going to improve his control and command. The question I have for the counts is his arm angle on his pitches. What can be difficult is syncing up arm angles and keeping the same stuff. Are his arm angles consistent from pitch to pitch?
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Post by bluechip on Mar 4, 2013 9:05:59 GMT -5
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sdl1
New Member
Posts: 2
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Post by sdl1 on Mar 6, 2013 10:11:37 GMT -5
I love this kid...which is why I do NOT want to see hom on the 25-man come Opening Day.
I want to see him get a full season in AAA. Bring him up in August if you must...but let him get experience with the PawSox. I know Dodger fns who are NOT happy that they lost him.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 7, 2013 8:31:37 GMT -5
There isn't even discussion about him making the team out of spring so you can sleep easy. I agree with your feelings
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Post by charliezink16 on Mar 7, 2013 18:17:24 GMT -5
@alexspeier: Allen Webster again dazzled. One 2-pitch sequence underscored the idea that his stuff is as good as any Sox prospect t.co/TPCnj6swVa
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Post by wskeleton76 on Mar 7, 2013 19:36:25 GMT -5
I love this kid. His ceiling looks higher than I thought.
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