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2015 Official Spring Training thread
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Post by mgoetze on Mar 20, 2015 11:38:16 GMT -5
Junichi Tazawa has a higher career WAR than Jose Iglesias. Of course, Tazawa also has healthy shins (I hope). Anyway, I don't understand the "future closer" discussion at all, it seems completely pointless given the volatility of relief pitching (and the general stupidity of the "closer" concept), but Tazawa is not under team control any longer than Uehara is, and I seem to recall an article quoting him as prefering to go to free agency and seeing whether some team will give him a chance to start again. Of course, that might well be irrelevant if the Red Sox are willing to pay him "closer money". Should they be willing to do that? Here are the leaders in relief pitcher fWAR, 2012-2014: 1. Kimbrel 7.8 2. Holland 7.6 3. Chapman 7.6 ... 6. Uehara 5.5 ... 18. Tazawa 3.5 19. Rosenthal 3.5 20. Miller 3.4 Andrew Miller only has about 2/3 of the innings of most of the guys ahead of him, what with John Farrell mistaking him for a LOOGY and all that. So, Tazawa is close to the top of the league but he will be almost 30 when he hits free agency. At this point I don't think he projects to be worth "closer money". Of course, if the Red Sox let him rack up some saves, some other team might think that. Better to do it after his last arbitration hearing, though, else he'll cost more.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Mar 20, 2015 20:18:18 GMT -5
In a pretty solid Speier story on the relative importance of fastball velocity, he links to a piece in BP that I completely missed until now about fastball rotation speed. Interesting stuff, with some good Koji love ... It's an interesting point about why Koji's so effective; he has two fastballs that look the same coming out of his hand that move in extreme, opposite directions. This doesn't seem that groundbreaking when you think about it, but it's a good, solid look at how to quantify something that's important.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 20, 2015 22:34:55 GMT -5
Some general thoughts on some things I'll be watching for but won't take the time to do spreadsheets to figure it out. This'll mostly be just babble and opinions.
The three lefties. I'm of the opinion that Rodriguez has the highest ceiling but lowest floor, Johnson the opposite and Owens in the middle on both counts. That being said, from watching them, I also see another big difference that I've never see analysed. Owens appears to have far better results with the bases empty than with runners on, Johnson with runners on rather than empty, and Rodriguez pretty much the same in either situation. For Owens and Johnson, it appears to be extremes to me. For example, Owens yields proportionately far more multi run HRs than should be the case and Johnson the opposite. It seems inordinate to me.
Luis Diaz. There's a deffinite oddity that he was exhibiting last year and this year in Salem. Relative to the peripherals, his pitch counts are extremely low. There were several games where his pitch counts were around 10 per inning late into the game. That's a radio recollection because Salem boxes don't do pitch counts and he was near the end of his rope in Portland but it's something I'll be looking for.
Dahlstrand. Seeing Singers tweet comments reminded my of watching him pitch in the Salem playoffs in one of the few games they broadcast. I remember thinking at the time that I was very impressed but didn't want to sound like to much of a homer at the time. He's definitely worth keeping an eye on and might be a pitcher that has slipped through the cracks of propsect watchers in the black box that is Salem.
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Post by jmei on Mar 21, 2015 11:18:57 GMT -5
That being said, from watching them, I also see another big difference that I've never see analysed. Owens appears to have far better results with the bases empty than with runners on, Johnson with runners on rather than empty, and Rodriguez pretty much the same in either situation. For Owens and Johnson, it appears to be extremes to me. For example, Owens yields proportionately far more multi run HRs than should be the case and Johnson the opposite. It seems inordinate to me. To throw some numbers on this, here are their 2014 splits, as taken from the SoxProspects stats page (which I always think are sorely underused): Owens Bases empty: 2.67 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 0.21 HR/9 Men on base: 3.25 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 0.96 HR/9 Johnson Bases empty: 2.20 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 0.52 HR/9 Men on base: 2.03 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.16 HR/9 Rodriguez Bases empty: 1.77 ERA, 10.6 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, 0.44 HR/9 Men on base: 0.00 ERA (!), 8.1 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.00 HR/9 Pretty spot-on observations, Ray, especially with regards to home runs for Owens and Johnson. We're dealing with really small samples here, so I wouldn't call much of this predictive, but it's something to keep an eye on.
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Post by soxfanatic on Mar 21, 2015 11:35:15 GMT -5
@gordonedes: Victorino to bat exclusively from right side. Left handed ABs taking too much of a toll physically, Farrell said
Honestly, if batting left handed is too hard on his body, why are we giving him the starting RF job?
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Post by moonstone2 on Mar 21, 2015 12:06:33 GMT -5
@gordonedes: Victorino to bat exclusively from right side. Left handed ABs taking too much of a toll physically, Farrell said Honestly, if batting left handed is too hard on his body, why are we giving him the starting RF job? Castillio has barely played baseball for what two years now? He missed time over the winter, and missed reps this spring. It's not a bad idea to give him some time in AAA to get ready for the hardest level of baseball that he's ever played. If Castillio hits and Victorino does not, I can't imagine that the Sox will hestitate to make a switch. When that happens Victorino and his toadies at the Globe will throw a fit.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Mar 21, 2015 15:22:26 GMT -5
Made the game in Bradenton today and Castillo looked really good. The kid looks the part and has one quick bat. In my opinion, a few weeks at AAA would definitely not hurt him, but I really am impressed with his athleticism going back on a long fly to his easy power. I actually hope they use him some in right at Pawtucket because Mookie should be our center fielder for the next decade. I'd leave Betts alone as he is really looking comfortable in center, and Rusney has played a lot of outfield and it would probably be less of a problem for him moving to right.
Special kudos for Wade Miley and Jackie Bradley Jr.
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Post by azblue on Mar 21, 2015 18:32:52 GMT -5
If the Sox conclude that Jackie Bradley has cut down his long swing enough to hit .260 or better in the majors, I would find the following outfield rotation very interesting. Dare the other team to put the ball in the area and catch some grass.
LF-Hanley CF-Mookie RF-Castillo All--Bradley and Holt
Ship Nava and Victorino out for solid relief pitching.
Hang on to Craig if it looks as though he is going to revive as the principal righty power bat off the bench while filing in at 3B, 1B and DH (Hanley might also take a break from the OF by DH'ing when Ortiz rests).
Hanley may not have great range, but it should not be worse than average. Whoever is playing in CF (Betts/Bradley/Castillo/Holt) in a particular game can certainly cover enough ground to make up for any deficiencies.
The pitching staff has been built with a focus on inducting batters to hit the ball on the ground, but, when they are hit in the air and in the park, that OF could really go and get them.
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Post by hammerhead on Mar 21, 2015 19:24:52 GMT -5
And now Nava is only hitting from the left side... so you could do a lot worse than a modified Victorino/Nava platoon to start the season (although Nava isn't exactly custom made to play RF in Fenway)
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 22, 2015 10:50:31 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 22, 2015 11:05:53 GMT -5
If the Sox conclude that Jackie Bradley has cut down his long swing enough to hit .260 or better in the majors, I would find the following outfield rotation very interesting. Dare the other team to put the ball in the area and catch some grass. LF-Hanley CF-Mookie RF-Castillo All--Bradley and Holt Ship Nava and Victorino out for solid relief pitching. Hang on to Craig if it looks as though he is going to revive as the principal righty power bat off the bench while filing in at 3B, 1B and DH (Hanley might also take a break from the OF by DH'ing when Ortiz rests). Hanley may not have great range, but it should not be worse than average. Whoever is playing in CF (Betts/Bradley/Castillo/Holt) in a particular game can certainly cover enough ground to make up for any deficiencies. The pitching staff has been built with a focus on inducting batters to hit the ball on the ground, but, when they are hit in the air and in the park, that OF could really go and get them. Trading Victorino and keeping Craig, rather than vice versa, has always been on the table. There are good arguments either way. But also dealing Nava to make room on the MLB roster for Bradley makes less than zero sense. First of all, you'd have to be psychic and know that Bradley's future is as a 4th OFer; he needs to play every day at Pawtucket, and the conclusion based on that could be that he's good enough to be a major trade chip, or so good that he needs to start for us (maybe after spending a year as the 4th guy). Second, the upgrade at 4th OFer from Nava to Bradley is small, and it may be negligible when you factor in that the backup 1B versus RHP is now Craig rather than Nava. But most importantly, as currently imagined, an injury to either Hanley, Rusney, Mookie, Papi, Napoli, Nava, or Victorino / Craig means that JBJ gets called up. If you've traded Nava, now the callup is Brentz. Trading Nava is a big blow to organizational depth, one that far offsets any upgrade to the MLB bench. There's a pretty low threshold for the amount of injuries you need before the move becomes an overall downgrade to the MLB roster.
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Post by grandsalami on Mar 22, 2015 14:29:38 GMT -5
RT @jmastrodonato Hanley Ramirez said Mookie Betts reminds him of a young Hanley, circa 2006.
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Post by larrycook on Mar 22, 2015 14:55:54 GMT -5
As spring training has gone along it seems like Craig is seeing the ball better and swinging the bat better. Nava is what nava is and rameriez and victorino seem to be the starters at 7 and 9. Based on that....
If the sox are serious about staring Castillo at boston, does not it make the most sense to send betts to start the year at Pawtucket and avoid rushing him like we did with Bradley?
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 22, 2015 15:00:00 GMT -5
As spring training has gone along it seems like Craig is seeing the ball better and swinging the bat better. Nava is what nava is and rameriez and victorino seem to be the starters at 7 and 9. Based on that.... If the sox are serious about staring Castillo at boston, does not it make the most sense to send betts to start the year at Pawtucket and avoid rushing him like we did with Bradley? Not if they want to win the most possible games this season.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 22, 2015 15:06:36 GMT -5
As spring training has gone along it seems like Craig is seeing the ball better and swinging the bat better. Nava is what nava is and rameriez and victorino seem to be the starters at 7 and 9. Based on that.... If the sox are serious about staring Castillo at boston, does not it make the most sense to send betts to start the year at Pawtucket and avoid rushing him like we did with Bradley? Betts is, arguably, the best position player they have. His entire toolshed is well stocked. He's a plus-plus runner, good to very good defender, he plays multiple positions, and he may have the best bat outside of Ortiz, with a great contact rate, phenomenal bat speed that lets him be hyper-selective, very good patience, and good power. The team would lose a lot of value if they sent him down. I think they're less competitive without him, to the point where his absence could cost them a few games, and that may be understating it. So it depends on what you think the team's outlook is this year. The guy is really that good.
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Post by ctfisher on Mar 22, 2015 15:55:14 GMT -5
As spring training has gone along it seems like Craig is seeing the ball better and swinging the bat better. Nava is what nava is and rameriez and victorino seem to be the starters at 7 and 9. Based on that.... If the sox are serious about staring Castillo at boston, does not it make the most sense to send betts to start the year at Pawtucket and avoid rushing him like we did with Bradley? Not if they want to win the most possible games this season. At this stage, I also don't understand why Victorino would be starting for us- maybe as a stopgap before Castillo's ready, and as has already been said, Mookie is, in all likelihood, going to be one the 3 best position players on the team. Can't really compare his situation to Bradley's, given that Mookie raked in a decent (although still pretty small) sample size last year, and Bradley hit .191 in a slightly shorter cameo the year before
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 22, 2015 16:48:16 GMT -5
Not if they want to win the most possible games this season. At this stage, I also don't understand why Victorino would be starting for us- maybe as a stopgap before Castillo's ready, and as has already been said, Mookie is, in all likelihood, going to be one the 3 best position players on the team. Can't really compare his situation to Bradley's, given that Mookie raked in a decent (although still pretty small) sample size last year, and Bradley hit .191 in a slightly shorter cameo the year before As good as Castillo has looked, it's unclear that he's better than Victorino. Starting Vic in RF and Castillo in AAA and getting more evidence as to who is in fact better is therefore probably your best way to proceed. To have that cost you even half a game over the course of a month, there would have to be a 3.0 WAR / year difference between them, which seems unlikely. It seems pretty certain that Mookie is better than either of them. And it's actually possible that he could be 3.0 WAR better than the lesser of the two. If Victorino is in RF and Castillo is in AAA and one of them happens to struggle, that a 50% chance you've hurt the team. That becomes 100% if you start them both but send Mookie down.
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Post by soxfanatic on Mar 22, 2015 17:58:54 GMT -5
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Post by nhdave on Mar 22, 2015 20:17:34 GMT -5
Kelly (aka sitting still) all over the tv today in the photo pit!
happy to see these games in HD btw...
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Post by dominicansoxfan on Mar 22, 2015 21:46:21 GMT -5
I've watched video after video of Xander. There is very little different in his position and swing between when he is going well and when he struggles. The only thing that is really different is Bat position, when he hits well his bat is more upright. When he lays his bat back further he is susceptible to both the fastball away and the breaking ball away and low because the timing difference gives him less time to make a decision. I know this sounds simplistic but it is the only glaring difference I can find on video.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 22, 2015 22:51:08 GMT -5
I think it's clear that the battle for the last bullpen spot is between Wright and Layne. Ogando has looked good, so they won't be using his option, Ross will be sent down to get work, Barnes needs to start at Pawtucket and is being prepared to do just that, and none of the other supposed candidates for the final spot (Boggs, Workman, Eveland) have created any kind of argument for themselves.
And I think that given their aversion to downside risk, Wright would be viewed as having more value than Layne. With Buchholz, Kelly, and Masterson, you have three guys that you worry about giving you short outings. Having a long man like Wright covers you for that contingency. A one-batter specialist like Layne using a bullpen spot is a luxury you can afford when you expect all of your starters to be average or above average in IP/GS, and we're probably on the other side of that criterion right now.
Also, note how often Farrell has talked about Wright as a depth option, and about being able to use Varvaro as a virtual LHR and hence go with only one actual righty.
Of course, this is leaving aside the argument that Wright is, right now, one of your five most valuable starters, and that Kelly and Masterson should be competing for the fifth starter, with the other taking a long relief role. But I'm OK with seeing if either of those guys pitches himself out of the rotation in April.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 23, 2015 5:34:21 GMT -5
I think it's clear that the battle for the last bullpen spot is between Wright and Layne. … All good arguments, but if he is your sixth starter, shouldn't he be starting in Pawtucket?
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Post by jmei on Mar 23, 2015 6:22:10 GMT -5
Yeah, if you like Wright, it probably makes more sense to make him your sixth starter in Pawtucket than it does to make him your seventh man/long guy in the bullpen. If the bullpen is spent and they need a long guy, they would happily option Layne and call up Ross or Workman, so I don't see much of a risk of overworking the bullpen. Remember, the long man role is usually almost exclusively relegated to low-leverage situations, which means the quality difference makes less of a difference in terms of win probability added. Meanwhile, you do want to keep Wright stretched out, and considering the injury/performance history of the rotation, he probably adds more value being the sixth starter than he does pitching in blowouts.
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Post by moonstone2 on Mar 23, 2015 6:37:29 GMT -5
I think it's clear that the battle for the last bullpen spot is between Wright and Layne. … All good arguments, but if he is your sixth starter, shouldn't he be starting in Pawtucket? Further both Wright and Layne have options. You can activate Wright at anytime even as early as the second game if needed. They are after all facing maybe the worst offensive team in baseball to start. So that makes it less likely that they will need Wright. Plus you know in April there are going to be rainouts. That would lessen the need for Wright. Ross looks like unfortunately his knee won't give him enough time to be ready. On day 1 at least, it looks like Layne is the better option. The Red Sox can if they wish keep the transactions page very busy and rotate a ton of guys through that 25th spot.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 23, 2015 7:44:45 GMT -5
At this stage, I also don't understand why Victorino would be starting for us- maybe as a stopgap before Castillo's ready, and as has already been said, Mookie is, in all likelihood, going to be one the 3 best position players on the team. Can't really compare his situation to Bradley's, given that Mookie raked in a decent (although still pretty small) sample size last year, and Bradley hit .191 in a slightly shorter cameo the year before As good as Castillo has looked, it's unclear that he's better than Victorino. Starting Vic in RF and Castillo in AAA and getting more evidence as to who is in fact better is therefore probably your best way to proceed. To have that cost you even half a game over the course of a month, there would have to be a 3.0 WAR / year difference between them, which seems unlikely. This can't be proved with numbers, but based on my eye test I'm going to say that Castillo will be much better than Victorino this season. And given that JBJ looks far better than he did last year at the plate (spring training numbers be damned, he still looks better and can actually get the bat on the ball now), I wouldn't be hesitant to give up on the Victorino depth and find a new team for him to play on so we can have the best 25-man roster.
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