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2015 Official Spring Training thread
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 24, 2015 9:07:53 GMT -5
Rod Carew I'd put there as well.
Have to believe that today, we wouldn't have gotten rid of Wade Boggs after a season where he had a .261 BABIP, which was 83 points off his career average.
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Post by Smittyw on Mar 24, 2015 13:40:31 GMT -5
I have not seen this posted yet (if it was, apologies in advance)... www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/03/23/predicting-red-sox-lineup-version/ep6Jfh2vjR5FgCpSrQ1UiJ/story.htmlPete Abe's most recent roster prediction attempt has the Red Sox trading Craig and opening the season with Castillo on the bench, where he "can back up all three outfield spots and be used as a pinch runner." Personally, I'd rather see Castillo starting in Pawtucket than riding the bench in Boston. Do the people who seem to think he absolutely can't go to Triple-A because of his salary think having a $72 million pinch runner would be better?
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Post by jmei on Mar 24, 2015 13:54:31 GMT -5
The $72m is a sunk cost and should not be a factor in whether be plays in Boston or Pawtucket. If anything, it cuts the other way, since unlike Kris Bryant or Gregory Polanco, the Red Sox don't have any incentive to keep down Castillo's service time to get an extra year of team control.
Now, it's a fair question to ask whether he'd be better served getting full-time at-bats in Pawtucket rather than playing once or twice a week in Boston. Remember, his defection meant he's played very little baseball over the past year, and those reps could help him be the best player he can be when the inevitable injury strikes the outfield. But I don't think his salary should have any bearing on the question.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 24, 2015 13:59:05 GMT -5
The $72m is a sunk cost and should not be a factor in whether be plays in Boston or Pawtucket. If anything, it cuts the other way, since unlike Kris Bryant or Gregory Polanco, the Red Sox don't have any incentive to keep down Castillo's service time to get an extra year of team control. Now, it's a fair question to ask whether he'd be better served getting full-time at-bats in Pawtucket rather than playing once or twice a week in Boston. Remember, his defection meant he's played very little baseball over the past year, and those reps could help him be the best player he can be when the inevitable injury strikes the outfield. But I don't think his salary should have any bearing on the question. I'm not sure why you can't use this same argument about why Craig should start in AAA. He has hit barely more than Castillo over the past year. Let him get his reps at AAA where he won't be hurting the team and prove he can hit again.
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Post by Smittyw on Mar 24, 2015 14:03:48 GMT -5
The $72m is a sunk cost and should not be a factor in whether be plays in Boston or Pawtucket. If anything, it cuts the other way, since unlike Kris Bryant or Gregory Polanco, the Red Sox don't have any incentive to keep down Castillo's service time to get an extra year of team control. Now, it's a fair question to ask whether he'd be better served getting full-time at-bats in Pawtucket rather than playing once or twice a week in Boston. Remember, his defection meant he's played very little baseball over the past year, and those reps could help him be the best player he can be when the inevitable injury strikes the outfield. But I don't think his salary should have any bearing on the question. I agree completely that the salary should not be a factor in the decision. (I was more speaking of those in the media and amongst the fans that I've seen parrot the "Red Sox aren't giving him $72 million for him to go to AAA" line.) His long gap in playing time is precisely why a stint in Pawtucket is a defensible move, and why sticking him on the major league bench would be a very poor use of him.
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Post by jmei on Mar 24, 2015 14:07:37 GMT -5
The $72m is a sunk cost and should not be a factor in whether be plays in Boston or Pawtucket. If anything, it cuts the other way, since unlike Kris Bryant or Gregory Polanco, the Red Sox don't have any incentive to keep down Castillo's service time to get an extra year of team control. Now, it's a fair question to ask whether he'd be better served getting full-time at-bats in Pawtucket rather than playing once or twice a week in Boston. Remember, his defection meant he's played very little baseball over the past year, and those reps could help him be the best player he can be when the inevitable injury strikes the outfield. But I don't think his salary should have any bearing on the question. I'm not sure why you can't use this same argument about why Craig should start in AAA. He has hit barely more than Castillo over the past year. Let him get his reps at AAA where he won't be hurting the team and prove he can hit again. Well, the argument would be that Craig got 505 PAs last year, while Castillo has had less than half that (and that's including the AFL, Winter League, etc.) and missed the entire 2013 season due to his defection, so he has a lot more to gain from getting everyday reps. Craig might also be a lot more upset about the idea about starting in Pawtucket, though I'm not sure how much the front office would weigh that. But I'd be comfortable optioning Craig as well.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 24, 2015 14:22:53 GMT -5
I option Castillo because he's more important to the team. Yup, I do mean that statement that seems dumb on the surface. Castillo needs the reps for reasons Jmei mentioned and until Vic is either a full time back up or on the DL then Castillo should be in AAA getting ABs so he is sharp when he's needed. I want no part of Betts getting days off. Hanley, I can see simply because of his history and keeping him fresh. Unfortunately, he probably won't care about being given time off but that's another topic. However, you want his bat In the lineup film time too.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 24, 2015 15:48:06 GMT -5
It now looks like Uehara will start the season on the DL, and, as previously noted, they're considering doing the same with Kelly as well. They only need a 5th starter once before 4/21, in New York the first weekend. Uehara will give them room to keep both Wright and Layne on the roster in Philly. If they also DL Kelly, who else do they keep? There's no reliever battering down the bullpen door to be the 8th guy in the pen.
So, they could go with all the outfielders through at least the Philly series, where the extra PH is going to be handier than an 8th reliever, anyway.
And an admitted longshot: they could even keep them all through the 20th, if they were willing to go with a 6-man pen for 3-5 days surrounding a Wright start in NYC. That might be viable to try if they don't use the pen much in the day or two before his start.
Much more likely that either Castillo or Craig goes to Pawtucket to get regular PT. But it looks like that happens on 4/10.
What I'd like to see is Uehara activated and Castillo optioned on 4/10, and on 4/21, they activate Kelly and option Layne. At about the same time, they recall Castillo and option or trade Craig. You could swap those guys every two or three weeks until a reasonable trade for Craig or Victorino develops.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 24, 2015 16:47:28 GMT -5
I can't picture a scenario where Craig is in the majors and it makes sense for the major league team. The only usefulness he provides is as a pinch-hitter for the catcher spot when facing lefties. He's a major downgrade defensively and if he rarely get's at-bats then no team would want to trade for him.
If anything, I thing it's a necessity for Craig to be sent down to prove he can hit to both the Red Sox and the rest of baseball. They can always recall him in the event that Napoli gets nicked up.
Leaving Castillo in the majors makes the most sense to me as they could give Victorino 2+ days off per week then give Mookie/Hanley each 1 day off per weak (and it won't be long until someone gets banged up anyway) which would be essentially a 4-man OF where he gets regular at-bats. It also adds a pinch runner as mentioned above and provides the same usefulness as Craig would pinch-hitting for the catchers against tough lefties.
Victorino and the catchers will both need pinch hitters against right-handers late in games, so Nava and Holt can both be utilized there - with additional work for Nava at 1B against Right-handers so Napoli can have 1+ days off per week.
My concern is that if Nava or Holt get hurt - then they're a bit thin with lefties. Who do you replace them with?
I'd like to see Jemile weeks on this team before Craig (until an injury occurs) as he provides depth at 3 IF positions behind only 1 backup (Holt can backup in the OF - so the extra depth there isn't as useful).
If Craig hits - FANTASTIC. But as currently constructed, he's of no use to this team until an injury occurs. No point letting him rust and wasting a 25 man spot.
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Post by hammerhead on Mar 24, 2015 16:48:20 GMT -5
I think the juggling OF's thing is silly, you want to maximize the roster and I know that means you use AAA to your advantage, but I firmly believe that you should go north with the best 25 players. I could care less about hurt feelings between Victorino and Craig. I think you shop both players and see what team's willing to take on the most salary. If Farrell and Ben think Castillo is ready he should be the starting RF in Boston, this idea that you send down a better player so that Victorino doesn't feel disrespected is crap. Find out who between Craig and Vic is willing to be a 4th outfielder and get rid of the other.
Craig did square up that double today and he'd make a serviceable RH DH against tough lefties if Papi needs a day.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Mar 24, 2015 18:40:40 GMT -5
I option Castillo because he's more important to the team. Yup, I do mean that statement that seems dumb on the surface. Castillo needs the reps for reasons Jmei mentioned and until Vic is either a full time back up or on the DL then Castillo should be in AAA getting ABs so he is sharp when he's needed. I want no part of Betts getting days off. Hanley, I can see simply because of his history and keeping him fresh. Unfortunately, he probably won't care about being given time off but that's another topic. However, you want his bat In the lineup film time too. ^^^ This. Also a healthy Victorino who is performing is a more easily traded Victorino (if the Sox choose to go that route). And if Victorino can't stay healthy or produce then it makes the decision to bring Rusney up and plug him into the lineup that much easier. In terms of giving Hanley time off; Nava still needs to get some at bats, no? I think this scenario is ideal. If we did trade Shane and got a team to eat his salary then the team could add salary at the trade deadline without violating the luxury tax limit (providing we are in a position to want to make additions). I know the Sox aren't completely adverse to doing so, but they seem to have zero intentions of being a team to stay over and if there is a year to go over it's during next years free agency. This rotation will likely still have many holes next year, and next year looks like the year to be in the market to address it. I haven't given up on JBJ yet either.
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Post by charliezink16 on Mar 24, 2015 18:52:22 GMT -5
then give Mookie/Hanley each 1 day off per weak NO.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Mar 24, 2015 21:18:55 GMT -5
If the Sox trade Craig, they are depending on Victorino's health. I mean, sure, it's not like Craig's a sure thing by any means, but he's gotta be a better bet than Vic's health.
And, yeah, I'm not forgetting about JBJ. He needs reps in Pawtucket more than anyone.
Here's my prediction: Castillo goes down to get a few reps, Victorino proves that he's breaking down, and they deal with the repercussions of that as quickly as possible. All positive feelings for Victorino and all ...
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Post by jclmontana on Mar 24, 2015 22:28:09 GMT -5
"We said coming into camp that Shane Victorino when healthy is our starting right fielder, and we haven't come off that," said manager John Farrell. "But we're still in the process of him regaining his quickness and overall running speed. The one thing we're still trying to get our arms around is, what's the overall durability inside of a given week? How many games played can we plan for? Crasnick, from Espn red sox blog, 3.24.2015
"Multiple scouts mentioned Monday that Shane Victorino does not look right physically. Victorino played in back-to-back games for the first time, but served as DH on Monday, with Rusney Castillo in right. Castillo will also be in Jupiter on Tuesday" ESPN Red Sox Blog 3.23.2015
And there was the earlier story about Shane abandoning switch hitting for health reasons.
I smell an effort to prepare Victorino's ego for a non-starting role. Shane will not factor into the early part of the season, or maybe we get to see him do a Grady Sizemore redux from last year before he limps away. But, really, he doesn't factor into the equation, especially with Craig showing signs of life.
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Post by SoxInTx on Mar 24, 2015 22:42:58 GMT -5
I am firmly in the camp that sends Castillo to Pawtucket for the AB's while we keep Craig and Shane up in Boston as long as both are healthy. When the eventual breakdown happens you bring up a highly motivated Castillo and part way with one or both of Craig/Shane..
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Post by mgoetze on Mar 24, 2015 23:40:06 GMT -5
If the Sox trade Craig, they are depending on Victorino's health. I mean, sure, it's not like Craig's a sure thing by any means, but he's gotta be a better bet than Vic's health. Wait, what? 1. Mookie Betts 2. Rusney Castillo 3. Hanley Ramirez 4. Shane Victorino 5. Daniel Nava 6. Brock Holt 7. Jackie Bradley Jr. I'm confused, how many outfielders do you need to put on the field?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 25, 2015 1:07:32 GMT -5
"We said coming into camp that Shane Victorino when healthy is our starting right fielder, and we haven't come off that," said manager John Farrell. "But we're still in the process of him regaining his quickness and overall running speed. The one thing we're still trying to get our arms around is, what's the overall durability inside of a given week? How many games played can we plan for? Crasnick, from Espn red sox blog, 3.24.2015 "Multiple scouts mentioned Monday that Shane Victorino does not look right physically. Victorino played in back-to-back games for the first time, but served as DH on Monday, with Rusney Castillo in right. Castillo will also be in Jupiter on Tuesday" ESPN Red Sox Blog 3.23.2015 And there was the earlier story about Shane abandoning switch hitting for health reasons. I smell an effort to prepare Victorino's ego for a non-starting role. Shane will not factor into the early part of the season, or maybe we get to see him do a Grady Sizemore redux from last year before he limps away. But, really, he doesn't factor into the equation, especially with Craig showing signs of life. It might be best, in fact, if they could start him on the DL and have him take a full rehab stint at Pawtucket. When he's done, maybe you swap him with Craig, or trade one of them. Because if he is hurting, you really don't want to be figuring out how good he is in games that count, when it seems pretty likely that Castillo will be better.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 25, 2015 6:23:47 GMT -5
If the Sox trade Craig, they are depending on Victorino's health. I mean, sure, it's not like Craig's a sure thing by any means, but he's gotta be a better bet than Vic's health. And, yeah, I'm not forgetting about JBJ. He needs reps in Pawtucket more than anyone. Here's my prediction: Castillo goes down to get a few reps, Victorino proves that he's breaking down, and they deal with the repercussions of that as quickly as possible. All positive feelings for Victorino and all ... If the Red Sox trade Craig, they still have Holt to backup in RF/CF if Victorino is hurt. And JBJ, like you mentioned.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Mar 25, 2015 6:58:42 GMT -5
If the Sox trade Craig, they are depending on Victorino's health. I mean, sure, it's not like Craig's a sure thing by any means, but he's gotta be a better bet than Vic's health. Wait, what? 1. Mookie Betts 2. Rusney Castillo 3. Hanley Ramirez 4. Shane Victorino 5. Daniel Nava 6. Brock Holt 7. Jackie Bradley Jr. I'm confused, how many outfielders do you need to put on the field? Nava, fine, but how many positions do you want Brock Holt to back up? The guy's the primary middle-infield backup already. And I already said I wasn't comfortable with JBJ and felt he needed the reps down in Pawtucket ... I guess I could've said that the Sox are depending on Victorino's health or Bradley's bat, and I'm not sure I'd feel all that solid about either. Really, if Victorino breaks down, you're talking about replacing him with JBJ or Weeks. I think the chances are high that Craig's a better player than either of them this year, and the team is just better constructed with him on it than any of these options. If Ramirez gets hurt, Craig is the clear replacement for him. Same with Napoli ... and I mean "replacement" not just in the positional sense but in the sense of possibly approximating some semblance of the offensive profile, as well. He offers some long-term value as a Napoli replacement at reasonable AAV, too, if that's needed. It's just a better team with Craig on it. Imagine the risk of Victorino breaking down and the risk of JBJ not hitting and killing his long-term value, then think of Ben Cherington's attitude toward downside risk ... I'd be stunned if Craig goes anywhere.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Mar 25, 2015 7:33:46 GMT -5
JBJ really isn't much different that Victorino. They'd put up similar wRC+'s at this point, and JBJ is a better fielder.
I'd easily trade Victorino before I trade Craig, who could fill a hole next year if he rebounds.
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Post by jmei on Mar 25, 2015 7:53:42 GMT -5
I guess I could've said that the Sox are depending on Victorino's health or Bradley's bat, and I'm not sure I'd feel all that solid about either. Really, if Victorino breaks down, you're talking about replacing him with JBJ or Weeks. I think the chances are high that Craig's a better player than either of them this year, and the team is just better constructed with him on it than any of these options. [...] Imagine the risk of Victorino breaking down and the risk of JBJ not hitting and killing his long-term value, then think of Ben Cherington's attitude toward downside risk ... I'd be stunned if Craig goes anywhere. Is there a reason you're omitting Castillo?
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Post by jmei on Mar 25, 2015 7:58:49 GMT -5
JBJ really isn't much different that Victorino. They'd put up similar wRC+'s at this point, and JBJ is a better fielder. I disagree. Bradley's error bars are significantly wider and I think his median projection is probably lower as well. I think Victorino projects to be a better player on a rate basis by pretty much all the projection systems, for instance. Of course, Victorino's issue is that he's a significant injury risk
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 25, 2015 7:59:04 GMT -5
JBJ really isn't much different that Victorino. They'd put up similar wRC+'s at this point, and JBJ is a better fielder. I'd easily trade Victorino before I trade Craig, who could fill a hole next year if he rebounds. How can you say that Victorino and JBJr would put up similar WC+. It's kind of a huge leap.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Mar 25, 2015 8:03:06 GMT -5
I just think that, projection systems aside, Victorino is either going to play hurt or not play at all. I think any power he had (which was all from the right side) will be gone. I just don't think he'll ever be healthy enough to hit well again. In other words, I expect him to underachieve even if Bradley doesn't improve all that much.
But Bradley definitely has large error bars, I'll give you that. Just my opinion on Victorino mores than Bradley.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 25, 2015 10:08:19 GMT -5
"We said coming into camp that Shane Victorino when healthy is our starting right fielder, and we haven't come off that," said manager John Farrell. "But we're still in the process of him regaining his quickness and overall running speed. The one thing we're still trying to get our arms around is, what's the overall durability inside of a given week? How many games played can we plan for? Crasnick, from Espn red sox blog, 3.24.2015 "Multiple scouts mentioned Monday that Shane Victorino does not look right physically. Victorino played in back-to-back games for the first time, but served as DH on Monday, with Rusney Castillo in right. Castillo will also be in Jupiter on Tuesday" ESPN Red Sox Blog 3.23.2015 And there was the earlier story about Shane abandoning switch hitting for health reasons. I smell an effort to prepare Victorino's ego for a non-starting role. Shane will not factor into the early part of the season, or maybe we get to see him do a Grady Sizemore redux from last year before he limps away. But, really, he doesn't factor into the equation, especially with Craig showing signs of life. It might be best, in fact, if they could start him on the DL and have him take a full rehab stint at Pawtucket. When he's done, maybe you swap him with Craig, or trade one of them. Because if he is hurting, you really don't want to be figuring out how good he is in games that count, when it seems pretty likely that Castillo will be better. Ehhhhh. Rehabbing in Pawtucket doesn't get you healthy. It gets you back up to game speed after you're healthy. I remember getting reports from Ian during Shanf's "rehab" last year that he looked like he couldn't even run.
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