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2015 Non-Sox thread
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Post by heisenberg on Nov 29, 2015 14:46:30 GMT -5
“@jonmorosi: Sources: Jordan Zimmermann’s deal with #Tigers expected to be 5 years and around $110 million. @jonheymancbs first reported agreement.” All things considered, not a bad deal. $22 million per year that only runs through age 34. If Greinke signs for 5 years / $150 million, some team could have done a two for the price of one, given the astronomical numbers being floated regarding Price.
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Post by kman22 on Nov 30, 2015 1:26:32 GMT -5
“@jonmorosi: Sources: Jordan Zimmermann’s deal with #Tigers expected to be 5 years and around $110 million. @jonheymancbs first reported agreement.” All things considered, not a bad deal. $22 million per year that only runs through age 34. If Greinke signs for 5 years / $150 million, some team could have done a two for the price of one, given the astronomical numbers being floated regarding Price. And sacrificed their top two draft picks/slots.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 30, 2015 9:26:53 GMT -5
All things considered, not a bad deal. $22 million per year that only runs through age 34. If Greinke signs for 5 years / $150 million, some team could have done a two for the price of one, given the astronomical numbers being floated regarding Price. And sacrificed their top two draft picks/slots. Because you wouldn't trade, like, Michael Chavis and Sam Travis, or Deven Marrero and Pat Light, for Zack Greinke and Jordan Zimmermann? The risk there is almost entirely the money - if it doesn't work out, the draft pick value is barely a dent in the reason why.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 30, 2015 10:14:52 GMT -5
For shiggles, a statistical minor league Top 100 list over at Fangraphs: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-top-100-prospect-list-for-2016/As the author even admits, the list is deeply flawed (it's basically a ranking by age relative to level and position, plus a little bit of performance), but it's interesting to look at briefly. Margot (11), Devers (23), and Travis (37) appear.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,501
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Post by nomar on Nov 30, 2015 11:13:29 GMT -5
Heard something about the Orioles potentially targeting Pedro Alvarez. He'd be a breakout candidate in Baltimore IMO.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 30, 2015 11:45:34 GMT -5
Heard something about the Orioles potentially targeting Pedro Alvarez. He'd be a breakout candidate in Baltimore IMO. Breakout or comeback player? He apparently needs to be a DH.
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Post by kman22 on Nov 30, 2015 18:10:14 GMT -5
And sacrificed their top two draft picks/slots. Because you wouldn't trade, like, Michael Chavis and Sam Travis, or Deven Marrero and Pat Light, for Zack Greinke and Jordan Zimmermann? The risk there is almost entirely the money - if it doesn't work out, the draft pick value is barely a dent in the reason why. Well, it'd be those two picks plus the alternative of David Price, but still yeah I think Price is the best of that group, plus I don't love Zimmermann, and so if they are spending the money, I'd rather they get the best guy available AND retain the picks.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 30, 2015 19:54:49 GMT -5
That's fine and a fair side of the argument to be on - but it still has nothing to do with the draft picks and everything to do with how highly you rate Price.
Also too, it is also yet another indictment of how stupid the QO-based compensation system is. I can understand the league not wanting to award picks to teams who trade for eligible free agents, but a system where a team has to give up its highest pick to sign Wei-Yin Chen but no pick to sign David Price is just plain broken.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,501
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Post by nomar on Nov 30, 2015 20:13:06 GMT -5
Heard something about the Orioles potentially targeting Pedro Alvarez. He'd be a breakout candidate in Baltimore IMO. Breakout or comeback player? He apparently needs to be a DH. Yeah he's been awful at 1B. I more meant that he's the type of guy I can see figuring it out offensively in this division.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 30, 2015 20:32:02 GMT -5
That's fine and a fair side of the argument to be on - but it still has nothing to do with the draft picks and everything to do with how highly you rate Price. Also too, it is also yet another indictment of how stupid the QO-based compensation system is. I can understand the league not wanting to award picks to teams who trade for eligible free agents, but a system where a team has to give up its highest pick to sign Wei-Yin Chen but no pick to sign David Price is just plain broken. Not sure why they can't emulate the NFL where 3rd-7th round pick(s) are given based on the players lost (as a net sum; minus players signed) during the previous offseason, but nobody loses a draft pick. Nothing wrong with adding a few picks at the end of each round, aside from the depression of draft pick salaries (which I'm guessing is why they do it). But that effect is tiny... This system makes big market teams more likely to give qualifying offers and collect draft picks which defeats the purpose all-together.
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Post by kman22 on Nov 30, 2015 20:36:58 GMT -5
That's fine and a fair side of the argument to be on - but it still has nothing to do with the draft picks and everything to do with how highly you rate Price. Also too, it is also yet another indictment of how stupid the QO-based compensation system is. I can understand the league not wanting to award picks to teams who trade for eligible free agents, but a system where a team has to give up its highest pick to sign Wei-Yin Chen but no pick to sign David Price is just plain broken. Agreed, that speaks to how highly I value Price. We're also in agreement on the system being broken. What I was getting at was that if you are saying the team could go out and sign Zimmermann and Greinke for the same cost as David Price, you need to factor in the top two draft picks that the team is also sacrificing, in the Red Sox case, that's the 11th or 12th overall pick and a pick somewhere in the 60's, which while not guaranteed superstars, are still valuable.
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Post by heisenberg on Nov 30, 2015 20:41:29 GMT -5
“@jonmorosi: Sources: Jordan Zimmermann’s deal with #Tigers expected to be 5 years and around $110 million. @jonheymancbs first reported agreement.” Wow, that is realitively reasonable. Zimmerman's price must have been hampered by having a pick attached cause I thought he could easily get $150M+ $150 million would have surprised me, though I am surprised he didn't get the 6th year. Apparently, several teams will be making $100 million + offers to starting pitchers this offseason. The Tigers - Offer accepted (by Zimmermann). The Diamondbacks - Offer rejected (by Cueto). And, multiple teams will make offers north of $100 million to Price and Greinke. It's a good time to be a free agent starter.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Nov 30, 2015 21:02:44 GMT -5
“@jonmorosi: Sources: Jordan Zimmermann’s deal with #Tigers expected to be 5 years and around $110 million. @jonheymancbs first reported agreement.” All things considered, not a bad deal. $22 million per year that only runs through age 34. If Greinke signs for 5 years / $150 million, some team could have done a two for the price of one, given the astronomical numbers being floated regarding Price. So far I have been impressed with what the new Tiger GM has done, especially since the Tigers needed the same things as the Red Sox. Closer: F Rrod for one middle of the road prospect Kimbrel for 4 prospects- 2 of them high end 4th outfielder: Maybin for a bad relief pitcher Young on a 2 year deal Starter: Zimmerman for $20mm a year ??
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Post by blizzards39 on Nov 30, 2015 21:06:43 GMT -5
Wow, that is realitively reasonable. Zimmerman's price must have been hampered by having a pick attached cause I thought he could easily get $150M+ $150 million would have surprised me, though I am surprised he didn't get the 6th year. Apparently, several teams will be making $100 million + offers to starting pitchers this offseason. The Tigers - Offer accepted (by Zimmermann). The Diamondbacks - Offer rejected (by Cueto). And, multiple teams will make offers north of $100 million to Price and Greinke. It's a good time to be a free agent starter. The difference between the Sox and most these other teams is that the Sox do not have a TOR guy. Dodgers Cubs Giants cardinals Astros all do. It is why I was very happy when the Jays made a couple SP moves and probably took themselves out of the market. We need Price more than anybody.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 1, 2015 0:52:20 GMT -5
For shiggles, a statistical minor league Top 100 list over at Fangraphs: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-top-100-prospect-list-for-2016/As the author even admits, the list is deeply flawed (it's basically a ranking by age relative to level and position, plus a little bit of performance), but it's interesting to look at briefly. Margot (11), Devers (23), and Travis (37) appear. LOL, the minor league stats geeks must be hoping nobody sees this article.
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Post by xanderdu on Dec 1, 2015 8:25:24 GMT -5
For shiggles, a statistical minor league Top 100 list over at Fangraphs: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-top-100-prospect-list-for-2016/As the author even admits, the list is deeply flawed (it's basically a ranking by age relative to level and position, plus a little bit of performance), but it's interesting to look at briefly. Margot (11), Devers (23), and Travis (37) appear. LOL, the minor league stats geeks must be hoping nobody sees this article. Was there an extra multiplying factor if you were in the Dodgers organization. That list is littered with Dodger prospects.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 1, 2015 9:09:24 GMT -5
LOL, the minor league stats geeks must be hoping nobody sees this article. Was there an extra multiplying factor if you were in the Dodgers organization. That list is littered with Dodger prospects. Well, A) they have a good system and B) it could reflect an organizational philosophy to push their players to age-advanced levels, because as I've mentioned, that's the most important factor in this list. The author has bounced around from site to site with this formula. I want to say he was on Sickels' site for a while. It's never been good.
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Post by xanderdu on Dec 1, 2015 9:41:31 GMT -5
Was there an extra multiplying factor if you were in the Dodgers organization. That list is littered with Dodger prospects. Well, A) they have a good system and B) it could reflect an organizational philosophy to push their players to age-advanced levels, because as I've mentioned, that's the most important factor in this list. The author has bounced around from site to site with this formula. I want to say he was on Sickels' site for a while. It's never been good. That was posted half in jest, because of their 9 names on the list. The Dodgers had some premier talent before they started wheeling and dealing last year, when they obtained a number of additional near term options. It's possible they have that many guys, and if so, would support their choice to look very hard at FA signings.
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Post by ethanbein on Dec 1, 2015 12:18:10 GMT -5
Was there an extra multiplying factor if you were in the Dodgers organization. That list is littered with Dodger prospects. Well, A) they have a good system and B) it could reflect an organizational philosophy to push their players to age-advanced levels, because as I've mentioned, that's the most important factor in this list. The author has bounced around from site to site with this formula. I want to say he was on Sickels' site for a while. It's never been good. I don't really love KATOH so I feel stupid taking this on, but I feel like the bashing has gone a little too far. He first published KATOH at the Hardball Times last year, and then moved over to Fangraphs, so he hasn't been bouncing around. It's also not just some random formula, it's a model that he's tested pretty thoroughly and now seems pretty good. Last year it had huge flaws (didn't regress to the mean, ignored position), but he's fixed those. It's also not really true that age relative to level is really the only important thing. Of course it is very important, as it should be, but a 5% reduction in K% is about equal to being a year younger, so performance can change things quite a lot. Is it better than BA or BPs list? No, of course not, but it's not trying to be. It's not perfect, but for a stats-only model, I'm not sure you could get more than marginal improvements at this point.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 1, 2015 15:34:38 GMT -5
Well, A) they have a good system and B) it could reflect an organizational philosophy to push their players to age-advanced levels, because as I've mentioned, that's the most important factor in this list. The author has bounced around from site to site with this formula. I want to say he was on Sickels' site for a while. It's never been good. I don't really love KATOH so I feel stupid taking this on, but I feel like the bashing has gone a little too far. He first published KATOH at the Hardball Times last year, and then moved over to Fangraphs, so he hasn't been bouncing around. It's also not just some random formula, it's a model that he's tested pretty thoroughly and now seems pretty good. Last year it had huge flaws (didn't regress to the mean, ignored position), but he's fixed those. It's also not really true that age relative to level is really the only important thing. Of course it is very important, as it should be, but a 5% reduction in K% is about equal to being a year younger, so performance can change things quite a lot. Is it better than BA or BPs list? No, of course not, but it's not trying to be. It's not perfect, but for a stats-only model, I'm not sure you could get more than marginal improvements at this point. So then to sum up your point, for minor league players, stats are considerably behind good old fashioned scouting.....
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 1, 2015 16:02:40 GMT -5
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 1, 2015 16:26:55 GMT -5
Park signed for 4/12, which is obviously a ridiculous bargain if he performs.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 1, 2015 16:29:19 GMT -5
Park signed for 4/12, which is obviously a ridiculous bargain if he performs. Absolute bs that his team got more in the posting fee than he gets as a contract.
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Post by jmei on Dec 1, 2015 19:23:07 GMT -5
On one hand, it's pretty strange that they exceeded the CBT by only $1.87m-- it seems like they could have gotten under the threshold pretty easily (by trading De Aza, not recalling Craig, throwing in a minor prospect or two to move more salary in the Victorino/Napoli trades). On the other hand, this suggests to me that exceeding the CBT line and paying repeat offender tax rates may not be a big deal to the ownership/front office. They're obviously going to be over in 2016, but this suggests to me that they're OK going over some/all of the time in 2017 and beyond.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 1, 2015 19:40:38 GMT -5
I think $1.87 million was the tax amount, not the amount they were over the threshold? Unless I am misreading.
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