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2015 Non-Sox thread
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 2, 2015 21:38:40 GMT -5
Henderson Alvarez designated. A lot of interesting names being made available. I'm a little surprised they couldn't find a trade partner. He's gonna miss the first few months, but still.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 2, 2015 21:56:58 GMT -5
Cesar Ramos has been non-tendered. The Angels are so strange.
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Post by xanderdu on Dec 2, 2015 22:29:04 GMT -5
Pitcher, Jacob Turner and catcher, Tyler Flowers non-tendered by the White Sox today. I don't think either is a fit in Boston, though. Not sure what Hahn has up his sleeve, but he just let his starting Catcher depart. I guess he knows he has a Catcher coming from somewhere.
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Post by xanderdu on Dec 2, 2015 22:30:40 GMT -5
N/M, non tendered, as opposed to dfa
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 2, 2015 23:22:24 GMT -5
Alvarez not tendered a contract
edit: pedro, that is
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 3, 2015 0:28:06 GMT -5
Will Middlebrooks non-tendered
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 3, 2015 1:10:40 GMT -5
Will Middlebrooks non-tendered Since the start of 2013, the only two players with a lower wRC+ among the 317 who have amassed 700 or more plate appearances are Darwin Barney and Alexi Amerista. The only two with a lower OBP are (and this one is particularly brutal) J.P. Arencibia and Mike Zunino. Si nce the beginning of 2014, he ranks dead last in wRC+ with a 54 (400+ PA). Everth Cabrera is next worse at 57. Junior Lake is the only one with a lower OBP. It makes me wonder how we missed so badly on him. Basically every other player who has hit so poorly provides some other value and/or plays an up-the-middle position. Middlebrooks is pretty amazing in that he was there for his bat and still got such a long look despite hitting so incredibly poorly. Perhaps it's because his inability to hit the change proved to be so fatal but was one that was tough to identify by scouts when he was on his way up, simply because there are so few minor leaguers who can consistently throw a changeup for a strike? If a player can't hit a curveball that's going to set off huge red flags because scouts look for that, but Middlebrooks actually handles the curve reasonably okay.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 3, 2015 2:12:51 GMT -5
Will Middlebrooks non-tendered Since the start of 2013, the only two players with a lower wRC+ among the 317 who have amassed 700 or more plate appearances are Darwin Barney and Alexi Amerista. The only two with a lower OBP are (and this one is particularly brutal) J.P. Arencibia and Mike Zunino. Si nce the beginning of 2014, he ranks dead last in wRC+ with a 54 (400+ PA). Everth Cabrera is next worse at 57. Junior Lake is the only one with a lower OBP. It makes me wonder how we missed so badly on him. Basically every other player who has hit so poorly provides some other value and/or plays an up-the-middle position. Middlebrooks is pretty amazing in that he was there for his bat and still got such a long look despite hitting so incredibly poorly. Perhaps it's because his inability to hit the change proved to be so fatal but was one that was tough to identify by scouts when he was on his way up, simply because there are so few minor leaguers who can consistently throw a changeup for a strike? If a player can't hit a curveball that's going to set off huge red flags because scouts look for that, but Middlebrooks actually handles the curve reasonably okay. He had a habit of making adjustments to every level in the minors and started so well, he just got a lot of chances because it's hard to tell where learning curve ends and inability to adjust begins. Tough to hit in the major leagues.
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Post by heisenberg on Dec 3, 2015 2:13:40 GMT -5
Another interesting arm non-tendered - Yusmeiro Petit.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 3, 2015 9:55:35 GMT -5
I'm struck by the number of interesting non-tenders this year. In no particular order:
Relievers: Aaron Crow, Juan Nicasio, Craig Stammen, Yusmeiro Petit, Al Albuquerque, Jack Leathersich, Cesar Ramos, Neftali Feliz
OF for AAA depth: James Jones, David Lough, Ryan LaMarre
Depth starters?: Jacob Turner, Yohan Flande
Also, Greg Holland was non-tendered. He's out for the year.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 3, 2015 10:08:42 GMT -5
Will Middlebrooks non-tendered Since the start of 2013, the only two players with a lower wRC+ among the 317 who have amassed 700 or more plate appearances are Darwin Barney and Alexi Amerista. The only two with a lower OBP are (and this one is particularly brutal) J.P. Arencibia and Mike Zunino. Si nce the beginning of 2014, he ranks dead last in wRC+ with a 54 (400+ PA). Everth Cabrera is next worse at 57. Junior Lake is the only one with a lower OBP. It makes me wonder how we missed so badly on him. Basically every other player who has hit so poorly provides some other value and/or plays an up-the-middle position. Middlebrooks is pretty amazing in that he was there for his bat and still got such a long look despite hitting so incredibly poorly. Perhaps it's because his inability to hit the change proved to be so fatal but was one that was tough to identify by scouts when he was on his way up, simply because there are so few minor leaguers who can consistently throw a changeup for a strike? If a player can't hit a curveball that's going to set off huge red flags because scouts look for that, but Middlebrooks actually handles the curve reasonably okay. He might still be a decent buy low for someone. He cut his strikeouts considerably this year but got BABIPed to death, even though there's nothing particularly alarming I can see in his batted ball numbers. Still, hard contact % be damned, I still can't find it in myself to believe in a 27 year old player who's been awful for three seasons running. I'm not sure where to find stats on this, but I'd be curious to look at how he does with counts. I would not be surprised if he's been among the league leaders in hitting in two-strike counts during his career. I took a considerable amount of flack on these forums for calling out his low walk rates when he was first coming up and had been crushing at AAA and in his initial exposure to the majors, but this is why I was concerned. I like guys who walk not just because of the value of the walks themselves, but because they tell you something about the kind of at-bats the guy has. It tells you what kind of counts he's usually in, and those mean so much in terms of what kind of pitches a player gets and what he's going to be able to do with them. Guys do survive with low walk rates of course, but they're generally guys who are aggressive early in an AB and find a pitch they can do something with before they get to two strikes. Middlebrooks on the other hand always looked like a guy trying to work the count who was just really bad at it. Is he really as bad as he looks against sliders and changeups, or is it that he's always taking early fastballs for strikes, and putting himself in a position where he then has to swing at junk off the plate? Anyway, the interaction of a player's hitting skills with major league pitching is super hard to predict. Even when we get it right, we often don't get it right. Bogaerts was supposed to be a guy who hit for decent average and lots of power, but big league pitchers had something to say about that. Bogaerts found an answer; Middlebrooks never has.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 3, 2015 10:55:59 GMT -5
Splits by count are on fangraphs. I don't see anything special for 2 strike counts for WMB.
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Post by ramireja on Dec 3, 2015 12:22:58 GMT -5
In retrospect, Hanigan was a solid haul for Middlebrooks
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sarcasmo
Rookie
Formerly known as mtomeo
Posts: 91
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Post by sarcasmo on Dec 3, 2015 12:59:22 GMT -5
I'm struck by the number of interesting non-tenders this year. In no particular order: Relievers: Aaron Crow, Juan Nicasio, Craig Stammen, Yusmeiro Petit, Al Albuquerque, Jack Leathersich, Cesar Ramos, Neftali Feliz OF for AAA depth: James Jones, David Lough, Ryan LaMarre Depth starters?: Jacob Turner, Yohan Flande Also, Greg Holland was non-tendered. He's out for the year. I wouldn't mind taking a flyer on Alburquerque or Feliz. I like Turner as well. Still young. Any interest in Steve Cishek? Clearly not as a closer, but could be a useful bullpen piece.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 3, 2015 13:27:48 GMT -5
Also, Greg Holland was non-tendered. He's out for the year. Any chance he could be back for Sept/Oct? Wonder if he would be willing to take a minimum contract with a team option for 2017 so he can rehab with the team and stick around the game. Would be a nice buy-low candidate to replace Uehera/Tazawa in a year if healthy. Seems like the type of thing the Yankees might do.
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Post by heisenberg on Dec 3, 2015 14:01:34 GMT -5
I'm struck by the number of interesting non-tenders this year. In no particular order: Relievers: Aaron Crow, Juan Nicasio, Craig Stammen, Yusmeiro Petit, Al Albuquerque, Jack Leathersich, Cesar Ramos, Neftali Feliz OF for AAA depth: James Jones, David Lough, Ryan LaMarre Depth starters?: Jacob Turner, Yohan Flande Also, Greg Holland was non-tendered. He's out for the year. No joke. Typically, you might see one or two worth taking a flyer on. This year, there are way more.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 3, 2015 15:06:32 GMT -5
I missed Cishek. Add him to that list.
Would love Leathersich if the Beverly native and ULowell alum wanted to come home on a minor league deal. Career 15.2 K/9 in the minors. Apparently he has an elbow injury - he wasn't even arb eligible and he was non-tendered.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Dec 3, 2015 15:29:32 GMT -5
Per Heyman: Cliff Lee was medically cleared and is throwing. Wants to pitch in 2016.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 3, 2015 16:54:02 GMT -5
Splits by count are on fangraphs. I don't see anything special for 2 strike counts for WMB. Yes but I'm not interested in his two strike splits (everyone more or less sucks with two strikes), but how often he's in two strike counts, relative to league average.
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Post by jmei on Dec 3, 2015 17:11:27 GMT -5
Baseball-Reference has those splits, at least in terms of the percentage of plate appearances that ended with the batter ahead, even count, or pitcher ahead: www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=middlwi01&year=Career&t=b#countHere's Middlebrooks' breakdown: Batter ahead: 32.1% Even count: 34.0% Pitcher ahead: 33.8% Here's the league-wide breakdown: Batter ahead: 32.9% Even count: 33.8% Pitcher ahead: 33.2% Middlebrooks does look like he's in pitchers' counts more often, though it doesn't look like a huge difference (less than 1% of PAs difference).
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Post by jmei on Dec 3, 2015 17:13:30 GMT -5
If you're just concerned about two-strike counts, 50.4% of league-wide PAs get there while 55.6% of Middlebrooks' PAs get there. So yeah, looks like your intuition is correct.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 3, 2015 19:44:51 GMT -5
In retrospect, Hanigan was a solid haul for Middlebrooks That was hotly debated at the time. He failed the eye test for me, whiffing on sliders outside at a rate that left me feeling sorry for him. Hanigan has real value and is almost the anti-Middlebrooks with the bat, fouling off even difficult pitches till he gets something he can handle, and saving the power swing for inside mistakes. As jmei said more than once, his at bats are fun to watch, their professional.
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Post by humanbeingbean on Dec 3, 2015 20:28:17 GMT -5
In retrospect, Hanigan was a solid haul for Middlebrooks That was hotly debated at the time. He failed the eye test for me, whiffing on sliders outside at a rate that left me feeling sorry for him. Hanigan has real value and is almost the anti-Middlebrooks with the bat, fouling off even difficult pitches till he gets something he can handle, and saving the power swing for inside mistakes. As jmei said more than once, his at bats are fun to watch, their professional. This isn't a reply adding any depth to the conversation, but I felt compelled to comment and say I absolutely love watching Hanigan's at bats. Consistently fouling off pitches, working counts, and changing up the swing based on the pitch... it's fun.
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Post by humanbeingbean on Dec 3, 2015 20:32:19 GMT -5
If you're just concerned about two-strike counts, 50.4% of league-wide PAs get there while 55.6% of Middlebrooks' PAs get there. So yeah, looks like your intuition is correct. I find this stat extremely interesting... amazing what can be figured out nowadays. Thank you for finding that.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 4, 2015 14:37:57 GMT -5
Barry Bonds is back in baseball as the Marlins' hitting coach. I love it.
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