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2015 Non-Sox thread
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Post by notguilty on Dec 6, 2015 18:51:37 GMT -5
If the Dodgers were the least bit concerned with getting their money don't you think they would be taking an interest in resolving the so called issue. Yeah. You must be right. Cable viewers are 100% happy with their cable bills, like sheep they will not explore non-cable viewing options and therefore all of the RSNs are financially sound and there is no TV rights fee bubble at all: www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/are-regional-sports-networks-a-bubble-ready-to-burst/"MLB teams, like the Mariners with Robinson Cano, are committing record salaries over the next decade based off anticipated revenue from new regional sports network contracts. The deals have soared in value because advertisers know viewers still prefer to watch sports live without recording and MLB teams each offer 162 such programming dates annually. But these deals have been increasingly likened to a real-estate “bubble” prone to bursting. Analysts warn that TV viewers aren’t all sports fans and are pushing back at paying more for an expensive RSN bundled into their cable bill.Few agree on what will happen if lawmakers eventually “unbundle” cable packages and give viewers choice of what they’ll pay for. Or, if too many irate viewers dump cable and satellite TV for internet-based streaming options. In the extreme, RSN deals worth billions could be dramatically reduced and threaten a network’s existence. Yet, huge player salaries awarded years earlier would still have to be paid." Now, let's face reality. What's going on here is a giant game of musical chairs that eventually leaves the teams with enormous player contracts that have to be paid - Regardless of whether the TV rights fees they were depending on to pay those contracts have disappeared when an RSN files for bankruptcy or, by some other means, been unwound. Like the Dodgers owner said..."As long as the checks keep cashing"...until they, in fact, stop cashing These are some pretty good links, thanks. I've been saying forever that baseball has been in a bubble, and the stupid contracts they're giving away will come home to roost. People keep saying MLB teams can do that because they have money up the wazoo, but technology and viewership trends will catch up to them. In New York, Comcast is refusing to carry the YES network (in part) because they don't want to pay the premium. We'll see.
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Post by notguilty on Dec 6, 2015 19:13:25 GMT -5
Ok so supposedly the Dodgers have all the smart people in the world working in their front office and all the money in the universe to spend and somehow the end result of that is signing a 37 year old second baseman with no knees who hit .212/.286/.343 last year. I'm mystified. I think the Dodgers are pulling a Cherington. I mean, everybody knows they are smart, but it just seems they're trying too hard to show that they are. Mind you, they are facing a legitimate issue in trying to reduce that payroll (like Ben did). But I also think they have this propensity for taking too many bets, going for complicated options when relatively obvious ones are staring them in the face. Last year, I didn't understand why they'd have a so-so rotation behind Kershaw and Greinke. With Greinke gone (yes, 6-year 206m was too much), they should at least add Cueto + somebody like Chen or Iwakuma. I think that front office hasn't been challenged yet. They're all small market guys, who now have to deal with the challenges of a big market. Like Mike Tyson once said, everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. If the Dodgers don't make it far enough into the playoffs this year, I think Friedmann and Co will be on the hot seat (like Ben was, even though he hadn't realized it), and get one more chance. That said, I'm quite curious to see how they deal with the Greinke fallout.
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Post by heisenberg on Dec 6, 2015 19:20:22 GMT -5
Yeah. You must be right. Cable viewers are 100% happy with their cable bills, like sheep they will not explore non-cable viewing options and therefore all of the RSNs are financially sound and there is no TV rights fee bubble at all: www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/are-regional-sports-networks-a-bubble-ready-to-burst/"MLB teams, like the Mariners with Robinson Cano, are committing record salaries over the next decade based off anticipated revenue from new regional sports network contracts. The deals have soared in value because advertisers know viewers still prefer to watch sports live without recording and MLB teams each offer 162 such programming dates annually. But these deals have been increasingly likened to a real-estate “bubble” prone to bursting. Analysts warn that TV viewers aren’t all sports fans and are pushing back at paying more for an expensive RSN bundled into their cable bill.Few agree on what will happen if lawmakers eventually “unbundle” cable packages and give viewers choice of what they’ll pay for. Or, if too many irate viewers dump cable and satellite TV for internet-based streaming options. In the extreme, RSN deals worth billions could be dramatically reduced and threaten a network’s existence. Yet, huge player salaries awarded years earlier would still have to be paid." Now, let's face reality. What's going on here is a giant game of musical chairs that eventually leaves the teams with enormous player contracts that have to be paid - Regardless of whether the TV rights fees they were depending on to pay those contracts have disappeared when an RSN files for bankruptcy or, by some other means, been unwound. Like the Dodgers owner said..."As long as the checks keep cashing"...until they, in fact, stop cashing These are some pretty good links, thanks. I've been saying forever that baseball has been in a bubble, and the stupid contracts they're giving away will come home to roost. People keep saying MLB teams can do that because they have money up the wazoo, but technology and viewership trends will catch up to them. In New York, Comcast is refusing to carry the YES network (in part) because they don't want to pay the premium. We'll see. You're welcome. You can't claim to know anything about baseball economics if you don't know the first thing about how the bills are being paid - As well as how those bills may well go unpaid. And, yes, you are correct in saying that technology and changes in viewership practices are going to play a large part in how things shake out.
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Post by iakovos11 on Dec 6, 2015 21:52:58 GMT -5
Jon Heyman @jonheymancbs Dodgers have a deal with iwakuma. Believed to be for 3 years.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 6, 2015 21:57:32 GMT -5
Jon Heyman @jonheymancbs Dodgers have a deal with iwakuma. Believed to be for 3 years. I don't know the numbers but I wouldn't have been unhappy with Iwakuma in the rotation.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Dec 7, 2015 8:59:59 GMT -5
It looks like Joakim Soria is going to the Royals on a deal roughly worth 3/25, so the relief pitcher market is heating up. At least we have our top guy, and in terms of 7th inning relievers, the supply is much more vast.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,501
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Post by nomar on Dec 7, 2015 9:21:28 GMT -5
Jon Heyman @jonheymancbs Dodgers have a deal with iwakuma. Believed to be for 3 years. I don't know the numbers but I wouldn't have been unhappy with Iwakuma in the rotation. Not at the price of the 12th pick IMO. Too many other options out there and he's gotta decline at some point. He also was injured last year so there's a little to worry about there too. Big fan of Iwakuma, just wasn't a good fit for us. He'll be very good there though.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 7, 2015 10:35:30 GMT -5
Stat I just saw: Aroldis Chapman 546 strikeouts in 319 career innings. I haven't crunched all of the numbers but I am positive that if he retires strikeouts will go back to 1982 levels.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,501
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Post by nomar on Dec 7, 2015 10:49:17 GMT -5
Wow I'm surprised the Dodgers kept De Leon. I was hoping he'd be dealt. I'm guessing the Reds get 2 of Holmes, Peraza, and Verdugo.
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Post by deepjohn on Dec 7, 2015 13:02:30 GMT -5
Wow I'm surprised the Dodgers kept De Leon. I was hoping he'd be dealt. I'm guessing the Reds get 2 of Holmes, Peraza, and Verdugo. Peraza is already a top 25 prospect, who might have only a 9% chance of zero value. www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/how-much-an-mlb-prospect-is-worth-updated-trade-surplus-values/Peraza would be at least the equivalent of the public consensus value of Margot, and arguably greater since, unlike Margot's poor splits, Peraza has no obvious flaw. Holmes, according to BA's comments on their midseason top 50, "wasn't far off the back of the list", and so would have considerable value, too. Verdugo is rapidly ascending and Ben Badler of Baseball America believes Verdugo appears to be a “potential impact talent.” dodgerstoday.com/alex-verdugo-quickly-ascending-dodgers-prospect-rankings/352By comparison to Kimbrel's three years of cost control, the Dodgers receive only one year of Chapman (both trades have draft picks in the event of departure by free agency). Two of these three would be an overwhelming bid, IMO, compared to Kimbrel.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 7, 2015 14:22:22 GMT -5
Wow I'm surprised the Dodgers kept De Leon. I was hoping he'd be dealt. I'm guessing the Reds get 2 of Holmes, Peraza, and Verdugo. Peraza is already a top 25 prospect, who might have only a 9% chance of zero value. www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/how-much-an-mlb-prospect-is-worth-updated-trade-surplus-values/Peraza would be at least the equivalent of the public consensus value of Margot, and arguably greater since, unlike Margot's poor splits, Peraza has no obvious flaw. Holmes, according to BA's comments on their midseason top 50, "wasn't far off the back of the list", and so would have considerable value, too. Verdugo is rapidly ascending and Ben Badler of Baseball America believes Verdugo appears to be a “potential impact talent.” By comparison to Kimbrel's three years of cost control, the Dodgers receive only one year of Chapman (both trades have draft picks in the event of departure by free agency). Two of these three would be an overwhelming bid, IMO, compared to Kimbrel. Can't say I agree with your summation of the book on Peraza. There are big questions on his bat. He's basically if you started with Margot at 2B, gave him more speed and took away his power. That said, I agree on the rough valuation being similar to Margot's. Do you have a link for that Badler quote on Verdugo? In the BA Top 10, he wrote that Verdugo "He has a chance to be a solid-average regular." Again, that's right on that Guerra/Margot level. So although I disagree with what you wrote about those players, I do agree that two of them for a year of Chapman would make the Red Sox trade for Kimbrel look MUCH better. I'd be like if Allen and Asuaje were traded for years 2 and 3.
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Post by deepjohn on Dec 7, 2015 14:49:41 GMT -5
Peraza is already a top 25 prospect, who might have only a 9% chance of zero value. www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/how-much-an-mlb-prospect-is-worth-updated-trade-surplus-values/Peraza would be at least the equivalent of the public consensus value of Margot, and arguably greater since, unlike Margot's poor splits, Peraza has no obvious flaw. Holmes, according to BA's comments on their midseason top 50, "wasn't far off the back of the list", and so would have considerable value, too. Verdugo is rapidly ascending and Ben Badler of Baseball America believes Verdugo appears to be a “potential impact talent.” By comparison to Kimbrel's three years of cost control, the Dodgers receive only one year of Chapman (both trades have draft picks in the event of departure by free agency). Two of these three would be an overwhelming bid, IMO, compared to Kimbrel. Can't say I agree with your summation of the book on Peraza. There are big questions on his bat. He's basically if you started with Margot at 2B, gave him more speed and took away his power. That said, I agree on the rough valuation being similar to Margot's. Do you have a link for that Badler quote on Verdugo? In the BA Top 10, he wrote that Verdugo "He has a chance to be a solid-average regular." Again, that's right on that Guerra/Margot level. So although I disagree with what you wrote about those players, I do agree that two of them for a year of Chapman would make the Red Sox trade for Kimbrel look MUCH better. I'd be like if Allen and Asuaje were traded for years 2 and 3. I added the Verdugo link in the original post, and here are some Peraza links: dodgersway.com/2015/07/30/jose-peraza-might-be-the-most-interesting-part-of-that-trade/www.minorleagueball.com/2015/8/12/9130841/dodgers-prospect-jose-peraza-quick-dividendwww.truebluela.com/2015/8/6/9108033/jose-peraza-minor-league-reportI just meant to say that for now, Peraza, unlike Margot, has no obvious flaw that would keep him from contributing at the major league level now as a speedy, versatile, defensive wiz. I see Peraza was already promoted last August. www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/08/dodgers-promote-jose-peraza.htmlSplits seem to show that Margot has a hole in his swing against RHP that would restrict him (at least for now) to a platoon at best.
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Post by justen on Dec 7, 2015 15:25:14 GMT -5
Dipoto on a Frenzy
Ken RosenthalVerified account @ken_Rosenthal Sources: #Mariners not done. Trying to get Lind from #Brewers.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 7, 2015 22:00:46 GMT -5
@yahoosports: Police: Aroldis Chapman allegedly fired 8 gunshots, 'choked' his girlfriend. t.co/Ur9UF5b5WM via @jeffpassan @tbrownyahoo Guys, I don't think he's supposed to do those things
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 7, 2015 22:06:32 GMT -5
Sounds like Carson Smith's pricetag is a teensy bit higher now than it was a few hours ago
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Post by ibsmith85 on Dec 7, 2015 22:33:06 GMT -5
Multiple sources including Rosenthal, Heyman, Passan and more are now saying that the domestic dispute is a huge issue and that the deal is very unlikely. Passan goes as far as to say he can't fathom a scenario in which the trade goes through.
The alleged allegations took place back in October.
I still want to know what the agreed upon trade was.
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Post by bookiemetts on Dec 7, 2015 22:38:40 GMT -5
Lol imagine what would have happened if the trade somehow went through and the Dodgers weren't aware of that. I'm also very surprised that it's taken so long for this to reach the public with the twitter prevalence and all.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 7, 2015 22:40:09 GMT -5
Lol imagine what would have happened if the trade somehow went through and the Dodgers weren't aware of that. I'm also very surprised that it's taken so long for this to reach the public with the twitter prevalence and all. Florida is quite a place.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Dec 7, 2015 22:42:52 GMT -5
Maybe we can flip Carson Smith or Craig Kimbrel to the Dodgers for more than what we paid for either.
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Post by kyla13 on Dec 7, 2015 22:52:45 GMT -5
@yahoosports: Police: Aroldis Chapman allegedly fired 8 gunshots, 'choked' his girlfriend. t.co/Ur9UF5b5WM via @jeffpassan @tbrownyahoo Guys, I don't think he's supposed to do those things Yikes! First you have Jonathan Papelbon choking his MVP teammate. Now Chapman one ups him with gunshots to boot. I disliked the Kimbrel trade still but it seems with each passing day, with FA RPs getting ridiculous dollars and years, that decision is getting smarter.
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Post by kman22 on Dec 7, 2015 23:31:14 GMT -5
This Chapman news really explains the need for thorough examination by the Red Sox in trade negotiations. Would also explain why they shifted to Kimbrel and moved quick.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,584
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Post by radiohix on Dec 8, 2015 0:12:39 GMT -5
I thought Andrew Friedman didn't care about those "issues": The man traded/signed a bunch of thugs when running the Rays! 3:)
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 8, 2015 0:13:34 GMT -5
I thought Andrew Friedman didn't care about those "issues": The man traded/signed a bunch of thugs when running the Rays! 3:) He'll still get him. Just has to lay low for a few weeks.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Dec 8, 2015 1:33:35 GMT -5
@gdubcub: Source: Cubs close to deal for Shelby Miller. Braves would get Baez (after talks shifted from Soler).
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Post by mattpicard on Dec 8, 2015 1:46:25 GMT -5
@gdubcub: Source: Cubs close to deal for Shelby Miller. Braves would get Baez (after talks shifted from Soler). Bob Nightengale @bnightengale The #Cubs insist that there is no deal at all. They did not acquire Shelby Miller, Cubs executives say
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