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5/4-5/6 Red Sox vs. Rays Series Thread
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Post by goldenmonkey34 on May 4, 2015 20:56:44 GMT -5
It's not that hard to understand. This team can't pitch worth **** and can't hit that we'll either. You can pull whatever sabr stat out of your you know what that you want but in the end the only thing that matters is the wins and losses and right now we are a below 500 team which is embaressing with the talent we have. The team is not performing and there is nothing showing that they are going to anytime soon.
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Post by Guidas on May 4, 2015 20:59:04 GMT -5
Don't worry, RISP is both meaningless and will even out. Like it did last year.. Oh wait... Red Sox offense overall in 2014: 90 wRC+, 23rd of 30 teams. Red Sox offense with men on base in 2014: 96 wRC+, 20th of 30 teams. Right - lousy on both counts. My point exactly.
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TX
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Posts: 265
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Post by TX on May 4, 2015 20:59:28 GMT -5
'Saber analysis' is contriving statistics that make this pitching staff appear better than what we knew it was months ago.
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Post by mattpicard on May 4, 2015 21:01:45 GMT -5
It's not that hard to understand. This team can't pitch worth **** and can't hit that we'll either. You can pull whatever sabr stat out of your you know what that you want but in the end the only thing that matters is the wins and losses and right now we are a below 500 team which is embaressing with the talent we have. The team is not performing and there is nothing showing that they are going to anytime soon.I mean, there are plenty of signs that they'll regress positively, especially on the pitching side of things, but based on your anti-sabermetrics stance, you're not willing to consider them.
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Post by Guidas on May 4, 2015 21:04:12 GMT -5
Btw, Farrell either just embraced situational relief pitching or anointed Breslow as his 8th inning guy. Either way, someone should check on mgoetze to make sure he didn't have an M.I.
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Post by benjaminbuttons on May 4, 2015 21:04:41 GMT -5
Mookie seems to ground out weakly quite often.
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Post by benjaminbuttons on May 4, 2015 21:08:45 GMT -5
Starting to wonder if it was the Cardinals who insisted that Craig be involved in the Lackey/Kelly deal.
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Post by bookiemetts on May 4, 2015 21:09:32 GMT -5
These games would be much more enjoyable to watch if they weren't losing straight out of the gate. Early inning implosions just kill games for me.
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Post by goldenmonkey34 on May 4, 2015 21:13:38 GMT -5
It's not that hard to understand. This team can't pitch worth **** and can't hit that we'll either. You can pull whatever sabr stat out of your you know what that you want but in the end the only thing that matters is the wins and losses and right now we are a below 500 team which is embaressing with the talent we have. The team is not performing and there is nothing showing that they are going to anytime soon.I mean, there are plenty of signs that they'll regress positively, especially on the pitching side of things, but based on your anti-sabermetrics stance, you're not willing to consider them. and why should I consider them? For months that's all we heard this off season on how all these mediocre pitchers have these super sabr stats that show signs of the being good, and yet here we are a month into the season with the worst pitching staff in baseball despite the constant claims of how all these stats day they are going to improve. The only thing that matters is how many runs they give up, as in reality that's the only number that matters, and so far they have given up the most in baseball and nothing can change that
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sarasoxer
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Post by sarasoxer on May 4, 2015 21:13:40 GMT -5
It's not that hard to understand. This team can't pitch worth **** and can't hit that we'll either. You can pull whatever sabr stat out of your you know what that you want but in the end the only thing that matters is the wins and losses and right now we are a below 500 team which is embaressing with the talent we have. The team is not performing and there is nothing showing that they are going to anytime soon.I mean, there are plenty of signs that they'll regress positively, especially on the pitching side of things, but based on your anti-sabermetrics stance, you're not willing to consider them. Yes we might have some regression. Buch may get better or be released/traded/replaced, Miley might get better or released/traded/replaced, Masterson might get better or released/traded/replaced...Koji might be traded to a contender for value...Mujica, Breslow might be released/traded. Victorino might be an all-star/ or replaced/traded, Craig might resurrect or be traded/released. I understand that it is darkest before dawn but let's face it, we do not appear to have the talent to contend. Mookie, our best new player, is batting .225. Middlebrooks, Bradley, Bogaerts, Mookie have come up short so far....And they have been our best prospects.
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Post by mattpicard on May 4, 2015 21:14:33 GMT -5
Mookie seems to ground out weakly quite often. Well he's still in the top 20 in MLB in batted ball velocity, per Baseball Savant. And Xander's in the bottom 20, while leading Fangraphs "Soft %" stat.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on May 4, 2015 21:14:30 GMT -5
There are only a few things which are a total surprise to me beyond the SSS noise. I never expected Hanley to be as bad as he is defensively in LF.
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Post by benjaminbuttons on May 4, 2015 21:16:54 GMT -5
I mean, there are plenty of signs that they'll regress positively, especially on the pitching side of things, but based on your anti-sabermetrics stance, you're not willing to consider them. Victorino might be an all-star/ or replaced/traded I think i speak for everyone when i say Victorino has no shot at becoming an all star, hes done.
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TX
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Posts: 265
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Post by TX on May 4, 2015 21:17:12 GMT -5
I mean, there are plenty of signs that they'll regress positively, especially on the pitching side of things, but based on your anti-sabermetrics stance, you're not willing to consider them. Yes we might have some regression. Buch may get better or be released/traded/replaced, Miley might get better or released/traded/replaced, Masterson might get better or released/traded/replaced...Koji might be traded to a contender for value...Mujica, Breslow might be released/traded. Victorino might be an all-star/ or replaced/traded, Craig might resurrect or be traded/released. I understand that it is darkest before dawn but let's face it, we do not appear to have the talent to contend. Mookie, our best new player, is batting .225. Middlebrooks, Bradley, Bogaerts, Mookie have come up short so far....And they have been our best prospects. This guy. This guy is waxing poetic about our pitching and questioning Mookie... smh
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on May 4, 2015 21:18:27 GMT -5
Mookie seems to ground out weakly quite often. Well he's still in the top 20 in MLB in batted ball velocity, per Baseball Savant. And Xander's in the bottom 20, while leading Fangraphs "Soft %" stat. 16th in average distance hit also. For a rookie center fielder in particular, he drives the ball well.
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Post by jmei on May 4, 2015 21:20:53 GMT -5
I mean, there are plenty of signs that they'll regress positively, especially on the pitching side of things, but based on your anti-sabermetrics stance, you're not willing to consider them. and why should I consider them? For months that's all we heard this off season on how all these mediocre pitchers have these super sabr stats that show signs of the being good, and yet here we are a month into the season with the worst pitching staff in baseball despite the constant claims of how all these stats day they are going to improve. The only thing that matters is how many runs they give up, as in reality that's the only number that matters, and so far they have given up the most in baseball and nothing can change that 2004 2007 2013
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Post by benjaminbuttons on May 4, 2015 21:21:21 GMT -5
Mookie seems to ground out weakly quite often. Well he's still in the top 20 in MLB in batted ball velocity, per Baseball Savant. And Xander's in the bottom 20, while leading Fangraphs "Soft %" stat. Touchy.
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Post by iakovos11 on May 4, 2015 21:23:01 GMT -5
The need to blame RISP is such reactionary BS that it blows my mind. It's tribalism, plain and simple. It's "I don't agree with statheads, statheads don't think RISP is important, therefore, by the transitive property, RISP must be important!" Entering tonight, the Red Sox were slugging .413 with runners in scoring position and .359 with the bases empty. But, yes, continue about how the problem is how the Red Sox are faring with runners in scoring position. An easy narrative is always better than a correct one, after all. Who says this? I happen to believe the team's offense is on strike because it realizes the team is toast without 5 new starters. 'Do your job, Ben. Otherwise, don't count on us. We're as disgusted as anyone else'. Maybe the most irresponsible comment I've ever read on this board. You're basically calling out Ortiz, Napoli, Betts, Xander, Pedey, HanRam and others as being quiters. A bunch of lazy guys who have just dialed it it 4 games out with 140 or so games left to play because they don't believe the pitching is good enough.
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Post by benjaminbuttons on May 4, 2015 21:23:32 GMT -5
16th in average distance hit also. For a rookie center fielder in particular, he drives the ball well. Jumps out on a lot of balls early in counts for weak ground outs though, especially as of late.
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Post by goldenmonkey34 on May 4, 2015 21:26:32 GMT -5
and why should I consider them? For months that's all we heard this off season on how all these mediocre pitchers have these super sabr stats that show signs of the being good, and yet here we are a month into the season with the worst pitching staff in baseball despite the constant claims of how all these stats day they are going to improve. The only thing that matters is how many runs they give up, as in reality that's the only number that matters, and so far they have given up the most in baseball and nothing can change that 2004 2007 2013 finished last two out of the last three seasons and looks like it could be another one. Past success does not give a free pass for less than mediocracy for years to come. With a team that has the payroll and farm talent like this there is no reason for us to be this poor.
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Post by jmei on May 4, 2015 21:26:48 GMT -5
Red Sox offense overall in 2014: 90 wRC+, 23rd of 30 teams. Red Sox offense with men on base in 2014: 96 wRC+, 20th of 30 teams. Right - lousy on both counts. My point exactly. So your point was the near-tautology that a team that's bad at hitting overall is also bad at hitting with RISP?
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TX
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Posts: 265
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Post by TX on May 4, 2015 21:27:21 GMT -5
and why should I consider them? For months that's all we heard this off season on how all these mediocre pitchers have these super sabr stats that show signs of the being good, and yet here we are a month into the season with the worst pitching staff in baseball despite the constant claims of how all these stats day they are going to improve. The only thing that matters is how many runs they give up, as in reality that's the only number that matters, and so far they have given up the most in baseball and nothing can change that 2004 2007 2013 2004: Pedro, Schilling 2007: Beckett, Dice, Schilling, Lester 2013: Lester, Lackey 2015; Buchholz, Porcello Stop it.
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Post by mattpicard on May 4, 2015 21:30:02 GMT -5
I mean, there are plenty of signs that they'll regress positively, especially on the pitching side of things, but based on your anti-sabermetrics stance, you're not willing to consider them. and why should I consider them? For months that's all we heard this off season on how all these mediocre pitchers have these super sabr stats that show signs of the being good, and yet here we are a month into the season with the worst pitching staff in baseball despite the constant claims of how all these stats day they are going to improve. The only thing that matters is how many runs they give up, as in reality that's the only number that matters, and so far they have given up the most in baseball and nothing can change that We have a .269 team BABIP on offense. The MLB average (P's exluded) is .296. Pedroia, Ortiz, Hanley, Betts, Napoli, Nava, Craig, and Victorino's are all substantially below their career marks. Our starters have a 1.83 ERA-FIP. Last year, only one team had a mark above 0.51 (MIN). In 2013, 0.61 was the highest. The starters also have a 60.1 LOB%, good for dead last by 4.6%. Last year, MIN had the lowest mark at 66.4%. In 2013: 68.0%. -- I'm not exactly throwing out super advanced stats here. Yes, things have sucked. It's been painful to watch. I'm sitting here cursing at Bucholz and Co just like most of you. And I'm not trying to flatly say "we've just been unlucky, it'll all get better." But it is going to get better. Maybe we're not a great team, but we're far from a horrible one.
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Post by jmei on May 4, 2015 21:32:45 GMT -5
2004: Pedro, Schilling 2007: Beckett, Dice, Schilling, Lester 2013: Lester, Lackey 2015; Buchholz, Porcello Stop it. Let's look at the 2007 and 2013 rotations. 2007-- Beckett: coming off a 5.01 ERA, 5.12 FIP season Matsusaka: rookie season, ended up with a 4.40 ERA/4.23 FIP for the year Schilling: coming off a 3.97 ERA/3.59 FIP season, ended up with a 3.87 ERA/4.21 FIP season Lester: rookie, ended up with a 4.57 ERA/5.24 FIP for the year 2013-- Lester: coming off a 4.82 ERA/4.11 FIP season Lackey: had not pitched in 2012, coming off a 6.41 ERA, 4.71 FIP season in 2011 You tell me which of those rotations looked like they had an "ace" ex ante? You can't, because they sure didn't look like it. Buying low doesn't always work, but it's worked plenty.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on May 4, 2015 21:32:47 GMT -5
I mean, there are plenty of signs that they'll regress positively, especially on the pitching side of things, but based on your anti-sabermetrics stance, you're not willing to consider them. and why should I consider them? For months that's all we heard this off season on how all these mediocre pitchers have these super sabr stats that show signs of the being good, and yet here we are a month into the season with the worst pitching staff in baseball despite the constant claims of how all these stats day they are going to improve. The only thing that matters is how many runs they give up, as in reality that's the only number that matters, and so far they have given up the most in baseball and nothing can change that Analytics are only used to predict probability. Let's say the Red Sox had a 90% chance of being great and a 10% chance of being terrible. If they're terrible, it doesn't mean that the analytics have failed, just that they are improbably bad. With that said, can anyone point to me a stat that said Masterson or Miley were going to be super awesome? I believe those were "gut" feeling guys. Porcello can, and will, be better than he has been. The big question is Clay and Kelly. Kelly seems to just lose control of the plate while Buchholz has a mental breakdown any time someone gets on base. I'm as depressed as anyone could be with Xander, but the kid is 22 years old and is no worse than your average short stop. As long as he can be bland, I'll give him time to develop since he's supposed to be Nomar 2.0. Mookie is about the same age and is a bit snake bitten. Kids take time to develop. But of course, there's players like Devon Travis who makes me want to throw my computer.
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