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5/28-5/31 Red Sox @ Rangers Series Thread
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Post by mgoetze on May 31, 2015 11:06:36 GMT -5
Scott Lauber @scottlauber · 56s56 seconds ago
#RedSox at TEX: Pedroia 2B, Betts CF, Ortiz DH, Ramirez LF, Napoli 1B, Sandoval 3B, Bogaerts SS, Swihart C, Castillo RF, Kelly
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Post by cologneredsox on May 31, 2015 11:20:46 GMT -5
My point is, wherever these projection systems are getting their numbers from, they're clearly not from Wright's stats. Give me one reason why I should be less skeptical about the PECOTA/ZiPS/Steamer projections than you are about the Marcel projection. I suspect the main reason those projections are so negative is that Wright is 30 (turns 31 in August) and his peripherals have never been that impressive. He puts up decent FIPs because he doesn't give up many homers, but that could just be small sample noise. His walk and strikeout numbers have been pretty meh in both the majors (9.6% K-BB%) and the minors (8.7% K-BB% since 2013), and he's not a huge ground ball guy. Regardless, my point is that there is absolutely objective evidence suggesting that Johnson might be a better rotation option than Wright. Here is some more-- since the start of 2013, minor league stats only: Wright: 273.1 IP, 18% K, 9.3% BB, 8.7% K-BB%, 3.26 ERA, 3.94 FIP Johnson: 295.0 IP, 24.1% K, 8% BB, 16.1% K-BB%, 2.38 ERA, 3.07 FIP ADD: all that said, I think neither Wright nor Johnson get a rotation spot-- they're working with a 6-man rotation at the moment, and Wright probably gets shifted to relief or optioned to the minors after he makes his next start. I'm not giving up on Joe Kelly and his 4.11 SIERA yet. Isn't that cherry picking a little? Not sure and on the road but the stats from wright seem all to come from pitching in AAA while Johnsons include AA and even high A if I'm not completely remembering it wrong...
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on May 31, 2015 11:22:17 GMT -5
Scott Lauber @scottlauber · 56s56 seconds ago #RedSox at TEX: Pedroia 2B, Betts CF, Ortiz DH, Ramirez LF, Napoli 1B, Sandoval 3B, Bogaerts SS, Swihart C, Castillo RF, Kelly Wow.....that is a novel line-up. Kelly's last start? Look, I really like Kelly, but he may be more consistent and solid in the pen. Here is hoping Kelly shuts them out, but I'm not betting on it. It seems like all of our starters lose their focus once or twice a game. Miley and gang seem to be rolling along and then they walk someone on 4 pitches. Nothing annoys me more than giving a free pass to start an innings or with 2 outs. Miley is one guy who does this too much. Give em hell today Joe. You better!
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Post by grandsalami on May 31, 2015 11:38:21 GMT -5
“@peteabe: The #RedSox have re-signed INF Jeff Bianchi. LHP Robbie Ross optioned.”
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Post by mgoetze on May 31, 2015 11:45:49 GMT -5
Scott Lauber @scottlauber · 1m1 minute ago
Jeff Bianchi back with #RedSox. Robbie Ross optioned after mopping up for Miley last night.
As I predicted. Well I predicted the Robbie Ross part of it, anyway.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 31, 2015 12:10:11 GMT -5
While the rotation has a few issues, I still think our lineup needs to be rearranged. We have too many inning killers stacked up from three to six. Step one is to drop Napoli to the 8 hole followed by the catcher, Step two is to sit Ortiz vs left handed pitching and dropping him to fifth vs right handed pitching. Maybe something like: 1.) betts 2.) holt 3.) pedroia 4.) rameriez 5.) Ortiz 6.) bogarts 7.) sandavol 8.) Napoli 9.) swihart Napoli, the guy who hit 5 home runs last week? ... but what has he done for you lately? Add: As suspected, all he's done is get on base a crapload... maybe because of those HRs? Here's his line since those bombs: .294/.500/.353, so the only thing that's a little short is the power. Could be he exhausted himself over that period. More likely is that he's doing what he's always done, which is wait for his pitch and if he doesn't get it he gets on base anyway by walking.
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Post by grandsalami on May 31, 2015 12:11:06 GMT -5
“@timbritton: Farrell met with five of his vets for about 45 mins this morning. Wanted to stress aggressiveness and intelligence on the field.”
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Post by grandsalami on May 31, 2015 12:11:59 GMT -5
“@scottlauber: Farrell met with five veteran players for about 45 minutes this morning. Reemphasized his expectations, got feedback from them #RedSox”
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Post by GyIantosca on May 31, 2015 12:14:43 GMT -5
The thing is Xman,Betts and Swihart are like early 20's. They are playing the hardest positions on the field and I think it requires a little patience to get the whole package. But I like what I see so far from them.
The key is nailing down the defense and the rotation. With injuries right now I want the OF to be Brentz ,Betts,JBJ, Castillo.
Napoli is on his last year so between DH and 1B, Ortiz,Napoli and Hanley.
Peter ,Xman,Pablo good. Swihart ,Leon. Holt bench.
Bring up Johnson and E-Rod stays. The other 3. Buch,Porcello, and Miley. Kelly to pen or demoted. Wright long man.
The bullpen is pretty good. If we need a spot good bye Breslow. We know who is on Dl right now they can't help. Hanley get familiar at first because it's time to stop being patient. It's the vets who feel entitled and it has to stop. As long as the young kids are worrying hard I like them. This has to change fast. I love Ortiz for what he has done but he is 39. If this clicks then you can make a deal or two at deadline. But we agree the climate has to change. No more one win lose two.
I have no issue if people don't agree but suggest something. I don't know what to do with the Dl guys Nava,Vic and Masterson.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 31, 2015 12:16:37 GMT -5
They can't just return Bianchi. They already elected to outright him. They'd have to re-sign him as a free agent, and if he elected free agency, but guess is that he would like to head elsewhere. [ Bianchi cleared waivers and elected free agency. Right, sorry - "if" was autocorrect messing with me ("but" later as well). Sentiment was supposed to be something like "since he elected free agency, my guess is that he would like to head elsewhere." I, of course, was wrong there.
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Post by arzjake on May 31, 2015 12:16:41 GMT -5
Yesterday was a complete embarassment to the paying fans and the entire organization. The team as constituted is a joke.
You either go full rebuild for a few years and let the Betts, Bogaerts, Swiharts, ER, Johnson's and Owens develop while stashing the cash for elite talent in the mold of a Hamels, Kershaw, Stanton type players when they become available.
You must know when to cut bait with older veterans see Ortiz..
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Post by grandsalami on May 31, 2015 12:21:27 GMT -5
“@timbritton: Meeting was with Ortiz, Pedroia, Napoli, Sandoval and Ramirez.”
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on May 31, 2015 12:23:59 GMT -5
some here want a real backup SS. Let's review. THUR Bianchi gets DFA They can't just return Bianchi. They already elected to outright him. They'd have to re-sign him as a free agent, and if he elected free agency, but guess is that he would like to head elsewhere. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Designated_for_assignment#cite_note-2
Wikipedia screwed up.
"Designated for assignment (or DFA) is a contractual term ... after which the team must either: return the player to the 40-man roster within 10 days from the date of designation, or make one of the following contractual moves: 1.Place the player on waivers (which can only be done within the first 7 days of the 10-day period) 2.Trade the player 3.Release the player 4.Outright the player from the 40-man roster into the Minor Leagues"
Maybe Bianchi never left Texas. If he was told he was back on the team as soon as Ross got optioned. They aint as dumb as we thoughts.
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Post by mgoetze on May 31, 2015 12:26:55 GMT -5
They can't just return Bianchi. They already elected to outright him. They'd have to re-sign him as a free agent, and if he elected free agency, but guess is that he would like to head elsewhere. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Designated_for_assignment#cite_note-2
Wikipedia screwed up.
"Designated for assignment (or DFA) is a contractual term ... after which the team must either: return the player to the 40-man roster within 10 days from the date of designation, or make one of the following contractual moves: 1.Place the player on waivers (which can only be done within the first 7 days of the 10-day period) 2.Trade the player 3.Release the player 4.Outright the player from the 40-man roster into the Minor Leagues"
Yes, and they chose option 4. What's your point?
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Post by soxfan06 on May 31, 2015 12:27:28 GMT -5
How does Craig Breslow continue to last on this roster?
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 31, 2015 12:28:36 GMT -5
Yesterday was a complete embarassment to the paying fans and the entire organization. The team as constituted is a joke. You either go full rebuild for a few years and let the Betts, Bogaerts, Swiharts, ER, Johnson's and Owens develop while stashing the cash for elite talent in the mold of a Hamels, Kershaw, Stanton type players when they become available. You must know when to cut bait with older veterans see Ortiz.. They already signed sandoval and ramirez long term, if there was a time to start a full rebuild it was last yr at the trade deadline. Instead they did dumb stuff like trade lester for porcello and lackey for craig and kelly because they were too proud too rebuild.
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Post by arzjake on May 31, 2015 12:32:21 GMT -5
The thing is Xman,Betts and Swihart are like early 20's. They are playing the hardest positions on the field and I think it requires a little patience to get the whole package. But I like what I see so far from them. The key is nailing down the defense and the rotation. With injuries right now I want the OF to be Brentz ,Betts,JBJ, Castillo. Napoli is on his last year so between DH and 1B, Ortiz,Napoli and Hanley. Peter ,Xman,Pablo good. Swihart ,Leon. Holt bench. Bring up Johnson and E-Rod stays. The other 3. Buch,Porcello, and Miley. Kelly to pen or demoted. Wright long man. The bullpen is pretty good. If we need a spot good bye Breslow. We know who is on Dl right now they can't help. Hanley get familiar at first because it's time to stop being patient. It's the vets who feel entitled and it has to stop. As long as the young kids are worrying hard I like them. This has to change fast. I love Ortiz for what he has done but he is 39. If this clicks then you can make a deal or two at deadline. But we agree the climate has to change. No more one win lose two. I have no issue if people don't agree but suggest something. I don't know what to do with the Dl guys Nava,Vic and Masterson. You designate the latter. All 3 have no value Trade Napoli, CBucholz who more than likely do not factor into the16 season plans and should fetch a B type prospect since last year of both deals. See what you can get for Ortiz? In the grand scheme of things Sandoval's deal could be moved. Looking at 4 left at 75 mill +/- (include 5mil option cash) to a NL club on the world series fence.. Who did Cherington work under years ago in Boston? And everyone is surprised why this Team sucks.
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Post by arzjake on May 31, 2015 12:37:40 GMT -5
Yesterday was a complete embarassment to the paying fans and the entire organization. The team as constituted is a joke. You either go full rebuild for a few years and let the Betts, Bogaerts, Swiharts, ER, Johnson's and Owens develop while stashing the cash for elite talent in the mold of a Hamels, Kershaw, Stanton type players when they become available. You must know when to cut bait with older veterans see Ortiz.. They already signed sandoval and ramirez long term, if there was a time to start a full rebuild it was last yr at the trade deadline. Instead they did dumb stuff like trade lester for porcello and lackey for craig and kelly because they were too proud too rebuild. Agreed.. I think you could move on from Sandoval. Ramirez has great power, problem is Ortiz plays his position. I look to see what the market might be for Papi. At some point you have to move on from aging veterans..
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on May 31, 2015 12:43:35 GMT -5
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Designated_for_assignment#cite_note-2
Wikipedia screwed up.
"Designated for assignment (or DFA) is a contractual term ... after which the team must either: return the player to the 40-man roster within 10 days from the date of designation, or make one of the following contractual moves: 1.Place the player on waivers (which can only be done within the first 7 days of the 10-day period) 2.Trade the player 3.Release the player 4.Outright the player from the 40-man roster into the Minor Leagues"
Yes, and they chose option 4. What's your point? MY POINT?
my point is .. why would they choose option 4 when: a. Xander had a banged up arm b. They were looking for another bench guy to take Ross' 25th man spot. ??
why not the bolded choice which does not appear to require free agency prior to the return. I think wikipedia is wrong about the BOLD section.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 31, 2015 12:44:01 GMT -5
Yesterday was a complete embarassment to the paying fans and the entire organization. The team as constituted is a joke. You either go full rebuild for a few years and let the Betts, Bogaerts, Swiharts, ER, Johnson's and Owens develop while stashing the cash for elite talent in the mold of a Hamels, Kershaw, Stanton type players when they become available. You must know when to cut bait with older veterans see Ortiz.. Neither Kershaw nor Stanton are available anytime soon, unless it's in some parallel universe I haven't visited yet. The price for Hamels started at Betts, moved slightly to Swihart, and didn't budge much from there. But they're in that list you're keeping, I see. Welcome to the new reality when it comes to buying your way in. It's the discount house these days, though we may see some high priced merchandise on sale later in the year, none of that discounted however. As far as ditching Ortiz, given the circumstances and his easily bruised ego which is about as big as his game winning home runs, they've done about as well a could be expected. Unless, of course, we're back in that parallel universe, one where no one cares if you s**tcan an icon.
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Post by mgoetze on May 31, 2015 12:51:05 GMT -5
why not the bolded choice which does not appear to require free agency prior to the return. I think wikipedia is wrong about the BOLD section. Possible, it does work that way if a player is DFA because, say, you just received him in trade from another organisation but it would be quite the loophole if you could just juggle players on and off the 40 indefinitely. Anyway, the Xander bruise came afterwards, and they were presumably hoping to have Bianchi back in Pawtucket.
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Post by mgoetze on May 31, 2015 12:52:51 GMT -5
So who's starting for Texas anyway? Wandy Rodriguez? If so, can we finally stop starting Ortiz against lefties after his ohfer today?
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Post by ray88h66 on May 31, 2015 13:05:09 GMT -5
Some of these ideas are pretty good. At this point things like the 6 man rotation. moving on from some older players makes sense.
A few suggestions that made sense but I doubt happen are JBJ getting 6 weeks over Rusney. Barring injury the guy with 60 to 70 million invested in will play. He does look awful so far though.
Trading Papi. Or moving Hanley to first base this year. I think after this year they have to cut ties with Papi and burn Hanley's glove.
On just how bad things are so far. Tim Britton had a post about run differential. I know most stat guys don't like run differential, but only one team has had a worse run differential 50 games in and made the playoffs (2005 Astro's) in a full season. I know more teams make the playoffs now but being behind 4 teams in a weak division and all but Oakland in the wild card standings is much worse than only being 4 or 5 games out sounds.
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Post by larrycook on May 31, 2015 13:40:31 GMT -5
They already signed sandoval and ramirez long term, if there was a time to start a full rebuild it was last yr at the trade deadline. Instead they did dumb stuff like trade lester for porcello and lackey for craig and kelly because they were too proud too rebuild. Agreed.. I think you could move on from Sandoval. Ramirez has great power, problem is Ortiz plays his position. I look to see what the market might be for Papi. At some point you have to move on from aging veterans.. Unless someone is seeing something different, I have not seen that Ortiz has lost any bat speed, which is career ending for most hitters. He can still turn on juicy fastballs with the best of them. However Ortiz does appear to be struggling mightily with off speed and breaking balls and anything from a lefty. his timing appears off really bad.
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Post by Guidas on May 31, 2015 13:51:37 GMT -5
Meanwhile Tampa, with it's team of nobodies that some projection systems had winning as few as 70 games looks like a good year Oakland team here at the 50 game mark. Also providing more evidence that good pitching + defense > good hitting. But Ben begged to differ when he put together the "Offensive Juggernaut." Well, at least he got the first part right. This team sure is offensive. Care to explain why pitching + defense > hitting? You win the game by scoring more runs than the other team. That means they are equal because both score or prevent runs. This is just garbage. Bens problem is the team isn't actually hitting, not that hitting is less important or something like this garbage. You mean, why good pitching and defense tends to trump good hitting more often than not? That is the game, isn't it - why a success rate of getting on base at or around 30% of the time is a success. Why so many teams were/are chasing the metrics of improved pitching and defense? The essence of what you are saying is always true: when the game is over, the team that wins has scored (at least) one more than the other team, but is it the best offensive team that does this more more consistently than the team with better pitching and defense?
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