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What Can Be Done to Fix the Sox?
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 12, 2015 14:52:26 GMT -5
Betts for Grey is a joke. I would not even trade him for Harvey let alone Grey. Swihart in a deal for Sale is something to consider, obviously other pieces, but giving up something to get something really applies here. Swihart along with Guerra and maybe pitchers Johnson and Ball?
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Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 12, 2015 14:55:16 GMT -5
Unless we are talking about Sonny Gray or Chris Sale types I don't see Swihart getting traded. In the long run he might turn out to have the most value as there are very few good catchers in the majors right now. Can people please stop using Sonny Gray's name in the same sentence with real aces like Sale and Fernandez? Gray has never had a 4 win season. Someone else mentioned Betts in a Gray deal earlier. Agree on the chasm between Sale & Gray.......Obviously we don't know, it just appears, in other words, IMO, that Swihart looks more like a D'arnaud & less like a Posey. I agree catchers & SS's are the most difficult position players to find. With that being said, we'll have Molina Jr by May. I don't want to trade him either, but if you can flip him for a #1 with years of control, I think I'd have to pull that trigger.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 12, 2015 15:06:59 GMT -5
I'm surprised at the tone at which people talk about Swithart on this board. Not everyone, but a lot of people. The guy wasn't even supposed to be in the majors last year and look what he did. I'm higher on him than I've ever been. Got better and better as the year went on both offensively and defensively and his head is in the right place. Started slow with the bat as he concentrated on getting to know the pitchers after being thrown into a desperate situation out of the blue and then his bat basically exploded for a catcher his age.
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Post by texs31 on Nov 12, 2015 15:09:10 GMT -5
I'm not the greatest evaluator but are we changing our assessment of Swihart based on his performance last year? A year where:
1. He was promoted to the majors despite not, by all accounts, being ready 2. Performed quite well after struggling initially
I hate comps in general and loathed the Posey comps even more. That being said, I just can't see knocking his potential down a peg following last year's performance. I was actually quite excited by it.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 12, 2015 15:13:22 GMT -5
“@redsoxstats: MLBN Radio: ”Dombrowski would much prefer Giles to Chapman.“”
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Post by dirtywater on Nov 12, 2015 15:19:35 GMT -5
“@redsoxstats: MLBN Radio: ”Dombrowski would much prefer Giles to Chapman.“” Not sure what is worse 1) reports of which teams a player WON'T sign with 2) reports of a GM posturing which player he likes more
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Post by jmei on Nov 12, 2015 15:26:21 GMT -5
I'm not the greatest evaluator but are we changing our assessment of Swihart based on his performance last year? A year where: 1. He was promoted to the majors despite not, by all accounts, being ready 2. Performed quite well after struggling initially I hate comps in general and loathed the Posey comps even more. That being said, I just can't see knocking his potential down a peg following last year's performance. I was actually quite excited by it. The offense was encouraging, but the defense was pretty bad-- a below-average framer and arm and one of the worst pitch-blockers in the league. By DRS (which includes arm/blocking, but not framing), he was the worst defensive catcher in the league last year. Hard to say that that's anything but disappointing.
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Post by soxfanatic on Nov 12, 2015 15:28:36 GMT -5
I'm not the greatest evaluator but are we changing our assessment of Swihart based on his performance last year? A year where: 1. He was promoted to the majors despite not, by all accounts, being ready 2. Performed quite well after struggling initially I hate comps in general and loathed the Posey comps even more. That being said, I just can't see knocking his potential down a peg following last year's performance. I was actually quite excited by it. The offense was encouraging, but the defense was pretty bad-- a below-average framer and arm and one of the worst pitch-blockers in the league. By DRS (which includes arm/blocking, but not framing), he was the worst defensive catcher in the league last year. Hard to say that that's anything but disappointing. Yet Keith Law remains optimistic. In his Q&A today:
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Post by jmei on Nov 12, 2015 15:30:25 GMT -5
Yeah, I don't mean to suggest that he can't improve, but the defensive baseline he showed last year was significantly worse than I expected.
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Post by mredsox89 on Nov 12, 2015 15:36:21 GMT -5
I'm not the greatest evaluator but are we changing our assessment of Swihart based on his performance last year? A year where: 1. He was promoted to the majors despite not, by all accounts, being ready 2. Performed quite well after struggling initially I hate comps in general and loathed the Posey comps even more. That being said, I just can't see knocking his potential down a peg following last year's performance. I was actually quite excited by it. The offense was encouraging, but the defense was pretty bad-- a below-average framer and arm and one of the worst pitch-blockers in the league. By DRS (which includes arm/blocking, but not framing), he was the worst defensive catcher in the league last year. Hard to say that that's anything but disappointing. While true, I think the odds favor significant improvement over time defensively, certainly more so IMO than Xander's defensive improvement at SS. Swihart was not ready for the bigs this early, but he was able to get nearly a full year of MLB development in a year in which the team was a lost cause early. The counter to that would be a wasted year of service time in a useless year of course, but the information gained both from his and the Sox's perspective clearly has value. It was pretty clear he was awful at blocking pitches. Going back to his time in AAA, was that a worry among scouting reports if anyone can remember off the top of their head?
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 12, 2015 15:38:34 GMT -5
Seemed to be a lot better by the end of the year than at the start. in which case, I'm not concerned with where it started and his trajectory should be upwards. I'm way more concerned with Vazquez ability to hit enough to stay in the majors than Swithart's defense and it's not even that close. He had a good walk rate, but I think that will disappear unless his ability to make any sort of hard contact developed.
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Post by jmei on Nov 12, 2015 15:39:48 GMT -5
It was pretty clear he was awful at blocking pitches. Going back to his time in AAA, was that a worry among scouting reports if anyone can remember off the top of their head? His plus athleticism (which definitely showed) was supposed to make him an above-average blocker, but that didn't show up in 2015.
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Post by mredsox89 on Nov 12, 2015 15:42:59 GMT -5
It was pretty clear he was awful at blocking pitches. Going back to his time in AAA, was that a worry among scouting reports if anyone can remember off the top of their head? His plus athleticism (which definitely showed) was supposed to make him an above-average blocker, but that didn't show up in 2015. Thanks. That is what I thought I remembered. No idea if this is available information, but is there an aggregate list of his performance with specific pitchers? Working in MILB didn't give me nearly as much time to watch the Sox on TV as I'd like, but it seemed like he was particularly disastrous with Wright pitching
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Post by xanderdu on Nov 12, 2015 15:46:49 GMT -5
“@redsoxstats: MLBN Radio: ”Dombrowski would much prefer Giles to Chapman.“” Amazing how this stuff gets spun. The comment was made by Jim Bowden in response to a caller's question. There was no actual report of DD having said this. It's logical DD would prefer Giles, but this is being tweeted like it actually means something and it doesn't. I know you are just posting for all, but I thought I'd give the backstory.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 12, 2015 15:52:24 GMT -5
I think the main spin here is that Dombrowski is telling teams that if they're in love with any Red Sox prospects to call now and make the deal now. That's why he's saying that a lot can be done really quickly over and over.
Pretty good technique as you're not going to get any calls if you say everyone is untouchable.
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Post by heisenberg on Nov 12, 2015 16:41:57 GMT -5
Claiming that Swihart is a defensive liability based on the small sample size that is part of one season (and his first season at that) is nonsense. Clearly, the offseason madness has begun.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 12, 2015 16:53:52 GMT -5
I'm not the greatest evaluator but are we changing our assessment of Swihart based on his performance last year? A year where: 1. He was promoted to the majors despite not, by all accounts, being ready 2. Performed quite well after struggling initially I hate comps in general and loathed the Posey comps even more. That being said, I just can't see knocking his potential down a peg following last year's performance. I was actually quite excited by it. The kid did as good as he could do, being thrown into the fire & all. Look, he is going to be a top 5-10 catcher in the ML for a long time, maybe better, which is nothing to sneeze at. I think the posts just say that if Chicago calls you right now & says 'we'll give you Sale for Swihart straight up"....You'd drive him to the airport & wish him well.
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Post by jmei on Nov 12, 2015 17:04:20 GMT -5
Claiming that Swihart is a defensive liability based on the small sample size that is part of one season (and his first season at that) is nonsense. Clearly, the offseason madness has begun. You're putting words in my mouth. I said that Swihart had a bad defensive 2015, which made me think worse of him than I did entering the season.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 12, 2015 17:29:16 GMT -5
Bob Nightengale @bnightengale 6m6 minutes ago The #Redsox in talks with #Reds on Aroldis Chapman, as @ken_Rosenthal reported, but no deal close of yet.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Nov 12, 2015 17:35:08 GMT -5
What would you guys feel comfortable sending the Reds in exchange for Chapman?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 12, 2015 17:53:04 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 12, 2015 18:03:04 GMT -5
Claiming that Swihart is a defensive liability based on the small sample size that is part of one season (and his first season at that) is nonsense. Clearly, the offseason madness has begun. What he said was that during his time in the majors this past season, he was bad, worse than he thought he'd be. That isn't nonsense at all, it's what happened. Jmei made no projection at all about the future, a future which is implicit in your putdown. Given the athleticism, there's a lot of room for improvement. But by any measure, he was below average in his first MLB showing.
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Post by goldenmonkey34 on Nov 12, 2015 18:23:40 GMT -5
I agree its ridiculous how people are throwing around the idea of trading Swihart like they are. Vazquez is coming off TJ surgery and his arm might not be as strong as it once was which could affect his ability to throw out runners. He has very limited at bats in Majors and we really have no idea whether he can handle Major League pitching. Im not completely sold on him as being the next Molina based off just 50 games of MLB catching. Trading Swihart this off season would be a terrible idea
As of right now, Swihart was thrown in the Bigs when he clearly wasnt ready and produced as one of the better offensive catchers in the league. yes his defense was bad, but it was well known he still needed time to work on it and still has the potential to become an average to above average defensive catcher. Were looking at a future top 5 catcher and we would be almost selling low on him if we traded him now as he hasn't reached the potential he clearly is going to reach
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 12, 2015 18:30:35 GMT -5
Here's the final chart for Bradley: the slow start; the blistering August; and the rampdown to a more realistic and, hopefully more sustainable, finish. The BABIP returned to a realistic .310 after pushing to near .400. The OPS came down as his slugging dipped to just below .500 after having topped out at .630. The most dependable stat? His discipline which looks almost as if it was drawn in free-hand. That number was .86 which pushed his on-base percentage to .335. If he were to move the average another 20 points or so higher with better contact, he'd be a legitimate candidate for leadoff. That contact rate is, of course, the big question. If he can improve on it he'll have tremendous value given the outstanding glove. If he can't... maybe the Sox sell high? Where's that crystal ball? Overall, a good showing for Bradley (click to expand):
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 12, 2015 18:55:29 GMT -5
I agree its ridiculous how people are throwing around the idea of trading Swihart like they are. Vazquez is coming off TJ surgery and his arm might not be as strong as it once was which could affect his ability to throw out runners. He has very limited at bats in Majors and we really have no idea whether he can handle Major League pitching. Im not completely sold on him as being the next Molina based off just 50 games of MLB catching. Trading Swihart this off season would be a terrible idea As of right now, Swihart was thrown in the Bigs when he clearly wasnt ready and produced as one of the better offensive catchers in the league. yes his defense was bad, but it was well known he still needed time to work on it and still has the potential to become an average to above average defensive catcher. Were looking at a future top 5 catcher and we would be almost selling low on him if we traded him now as he hasn't reached the potential he clearly is going to reach Some realism, please. Swihart will never be "the next Molina". The Sox had and hopefully will have that guy in Vazquez, someone who's been working at it since he was a kid. Swihart has the potential to make himself an average to above-average catcher, I believe, but he'll never be in the same discussion as Christian Vazquez who is simply outstanding. The guy is a workaholic and he burns to be the best. He's been that way since he came into the system and just about all of his metrics point in that direction. Blake Swihart's real value is as a well-above average bat at catcher. I also believe he has a chance to improve his hitting to the point that it would play at multiple positions. That's more realistic than ever given what he showed at the end of the year, launching liners every which way, and the suppressed hitting environment that's now emerged in MLB. The potential is obvious even now while he's still learning. From the left-hand side of the plate he has a tendency to put his foot in the "bucket" pulling away from pitches he should be squaring up. He'll figure that out and be an even better hitter, I don't have any doubts at all. There's no knowing who Dombrowski and Hazen will have dangled before them, but you can bet Swihart is going to be part of the conversation. The head of Baseball Ops (let's cal him the HOBO) and the GM are going to earn their keep. The've got a lot of gold that other teams would like to stash in their own vault. Figuring out who to keep and who to part with is going to be excruciating - and fun - for the team and for fans.
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